Buying or Selling Top Contenders for the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament
As you work through either your "Sheet of Integrity" or your 50th set of picks since the 2026 men's NCAA tournament field was announced Sunday night, let's take a closer look at some of the top contenders.
We'll briefly examine each of the four No. 1 and four No. 2 seeds and come to a conclusion on whether we're buying or selling their title odds.
To be clear, I'm buying all eight of these teams as viable candidates to win the national championship.
What we're buying or selling are their national championship odds, and their implied probability of winning it all.
Odds are the consensus of several books, via Vegas Insider, captured Monday morning. Teams are presented in ascending order of odds.
Purdue Boilermakers (West No. 2 Seed)
1 of 8
Odds: +2940
Reason to Buy: Veteran Leadership and Elite Offense
After dropping 80 points on Michigan in the Big Ten title game, Purdue is now rated by KenPom as the No. 1 offense in the nation, narrowly sliding ahead of Illinois for that crown.
That all starts with senior point guard Braden Smith, who is one assist away from Bobby Hurley for the NCAA career record. It also depends heavily upon senior shooting guard Fletcher Loyer, senior power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn, and senior center Oscar Cluff.
When that veteran quartet is collectively doing its thing—with sophomore CJ Cox pitching in some triples, too—Purdue has the potential for greatness.
The question is whether Loyer will go through one of his cold spells from distance, or if Cluff will make minimal impact, as was the case for much of the final 13 games of the regular season.
But while Smith racked up 46 assists during the four-game Big Ten tournament run, each of those other three seniors scored in double figures in each game.
That's the blueprint for a title.
Reason to Sell: It's Purdue
Arkansas-Little Rock. North Texas. Saint Peter's. Fairleigh Dickinson.
Need we say more?
The Boilermakers did finally make it to a title game two years ago, but Zach Edey isn't walking through that door.
And though they just looked pretty great in winning the Big Ten tournament, Purdue ended the regular season with losses in seven of its final 13 games, dropping games left and right at Mackey Arena, which would have been unthinkable in recent years.
Verdict: Selling
The offense is great, but the defense is a problem.
No one could score against them in the Big Ten tournament for some reason, but Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin all lit up this team for better than 1.3 points per possession. Even Penn State almost hit that mark in a game at Mackey Arena without its freshman star Kayden Mingo.
It's just about inevitable that they'll run into at least one game where they need to score about 90 points to overcome their poor defense. And while they could do just that, it makes it tough to bet on Purdue.
Connecticut Huskies (East No. 2 Seed)
2 of 8
Odds: +2220
Reason to Buy: Recent History
Not only did Connecticut win it all in 2023 and 2024, but it also won all 12 games by at least 13 points. It was just a ludicrous stretch of dominance.
Even last year, UConn finally hit its stride in the weeks leading up to the dance, got in as a No. 8 seed, and came oh so close to upsetting eventual national champion Florida in the second round.
Dan Hurley's antics on the sideline are more than a little insufferable, but he's also a brilliant coach who has one heck of a seven-man rotation (maybe eight, if Jaylin Stewart is able to return) at his disposal.
Reason to Sell: Recent-er History
Those championship runs were great. And Connecticut looked like a possible freight train earlier this season, racking up wins over Florida, Illinois, Kansas and BYU, all away from Storrs.
But have you watched this team lately?
The 32-point annihilation of St. John's was fun, but the Huskies were pretty soundly handled by the Red Storm in the other two games. They also lost at Marquette, who was previously 0-16 vs. Quads, 1-2—lost at home to Creighton, and darn near lost the home games against Georgetown and Seton Hall.
In most years, going 19-4 with a few close calls in the Big East would be a badge of honor. This year, it's a scarlet letter.
Verdict: Buying
The recent struggles are definitely concerning, but count out Hurley and Connecticut at your own risk.
Let's not forget that before winning it all in 2023, the Huskies cratered to the tune of six losses in the span of eight games in the middle of Big East play. But once they got out of league play, they went right back to that team that destroyed everything in its path during nonconference play.
The ceiling doesn't feel quite as high for this year's squad, but it's kind of absurd to think you can get +2500 odds at some books on a coach with two rings (baldy) and a team that we all thought two weeks ago was destined for a No. 1 seed.
Iowa State Cyclones (Midwest No. 2 Seed)
3 of 8
Odds: +1920
Reason to Buy: The Big Three
In Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic, and Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State has one of the best trifectas in the nation.
Both Lipsey and Jefferson average roughly five assists per game, and both can shoot the three ball, while Momcilovic is maybe the best pure shooter in the game today. Throw in Jefferson's triple-double potential as a great rebounder, and the Cyclones would be one heck of a pick if college basketball took a page from professional women's hoops with that 3-on-3 Unrivaled league.
It isn't just the big three, though. Blake Buchanan is a solid big man. Killyan Toure is an exceptional glue guy. And Jamarion Batemon is occasionally a perimeter inferno off the bench.
When it all comes together, Iowa State looks like a serious threat to win it all.
Reason to Sell: Inconsistency and Poor Free-Throw Shooting
Of the eight teams on the No. 1 or No. 2 seed lines, Iowa State easily has the greatest quantity of "What the heck happened there?" games.
Even with Momcilovic going for 34 points, the Cyclones lost by nine at Cincinnati in mid-January. And then just in the past five weeks, they lost at TCU, lost by 10 at Richie Saunders-less BYU, and lost by nine at home to JT Toppin-less Texas Tech.
But in that same window, they also blew out Kansas, beat Houston by a bucket, and won the rematch with the Red Raiders by 22. Goodness only knows which version of this team is going to show up in any given game. That makes picking them to win six in a row downright terrifying.
Now add to that randomness the fact that this is one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country.
Momcilovic does shoot 88 percent, but he's a catch-and-shoot guy who rarely has the ball in his hand long enough to get fouled, attempting zero free throws in seven of his last 11 games. Lipsey (64 percent) and Jefferson (70 percent) are the problems here.
Verdict: Selling
That 23-point win at Purdue was a long time ago, and Iowa State has predominantly done its damage at home since then—save for that rout of Texas Tech in the B12 quarters, but that's a team that is clearly running on fumes.
This team is capable of beating anyone, but stringing together more than two consecutive quality performances has been a struggle over the past six weeks.
Even at a line that suggests a five percent chance of winning it all, thanks, but no thanks.
Houston Cougars (South No. 2 Seed)
4 of 8
Odds: +980
Reason to Buy: It's Houston
The Cougars were in the title game last season. They may well have gotten there in 2024 if Jamal Shead hadn't gotten injured. They were arguably the best team in the country in 2023 until running into a Miami team that couldn't miss anything. They also made an Elite Eight in 2022 and a Final Four in 2021.
All told, Houston is 188-30 over the past six seasons, dominating with a late-2010s Virginia or Villanova level of consistency.
Even though this Houston defense is marginally worse than it was in recent years, we're still talking about a top-five defense, a top-15 offense, and a coach who almost feels due to win a title.
Reason to Sell: Where's the Great Win?
Everyone in this conversation has a win against someone else in this conversation.
Except for Houston.
The Cougars did pick up plenty of very nice wins, including smoking Kansas in the Big 12 semifinals. They also beat BYU twice, beat Arkansas on a neutral court, and split with Texas Tech. But they lost at Iowa State and never led by more than a deuce in their pair of losses to Arizona.
Doesn't mean they're incapable of beating a top two seed. We just haven't seen it yet. And it's equally concerning that so much of everything they do hinges on whether Kingston Flemings and Emanuel Sharp are hitting mid-range and long-range jumpers. (Though JoJo Tugler did have a rare 20-point explosion in the Big 12 title game against Arizona. Can he bottle that up and bring it into the tournament?)
Verdict: Buying
If Houston had the same line as Duke, Michigan, or Arizona, there's no way we're buying here.
But basically a 10 percent chance of winning it all?
When they're going to have the ultimate hometown advantage in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Houston?
Pretty hard to argue with those odds.
If Milos Uzan shows up to some degree as a third option alongside Flemings and Sharp, the Cougars might finally win one.
Florida Gators (South No. 1 Seed)
5 of 8
Odds: +690
Reason to Buy: Scorching Hot
Florida getting smoked by Vanderbilt in the SEC semifinals put a real damper on this narrative.
However, the Gators entered that game on a 12-game winning streak, each game decided by double digits—save for the three-game sweep of Kentucky, in which Florida never trailed for one second.
There were questions—at least until Connecticut showed itself out of the conversation—as to whether Florida's tournament resume was worthy of a No. 1 seed. No team in the country has been better over the past two-plus months, though.
Reason to Sell: Backcourt Inconsistencies
The teamwide three-point percentage (30.8) is problematic, especially that of starting backcourt Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee (26.2 percent on more than nine attempts per game).
It's more than that, though.
Both Fland and Lee have just completely vanished at times, and neither one is exactly great on defense. As a result, Florida has committed 26 more turnovers than it has forced this season.
To his credit, Lee has been more reliable as of late than he was in November or January. But will either Gator be that lead guard who just takes over the tournament, a la Walter Clayton Jr.?
Verdict: Buying
The backcourt situation is legitimately concerning.
However, having a frontcourt of Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon, and Micah Handlogten is one heck of a safety net. There's a reason the Gators lead the nation in rebound margin, without a particularly close runner-up.
And as we learned in 2024: When the reigning national champion is surging into the dance as arguably the hottest team in the country, maybe just expect a repeat.
Arizona Wildcats (West No. 1 Seed)
6 of 8
Odds: +403
Reason to Buy: Highest Floor in the Field
Squint long enough and hard enough at any title contender and you're going to find causes for concern; ways that a game could go completely sideways for them.
But Arizona is just so solid that it's hard to imagine they'll ever completely lay an egg.
You can (and we will) spin it as a concern that this team doesn't shoot many three-pointers, but the fact that the Wildcats rely the least of any team in the field on the most unpredictable shot—and still score in bunches without it—is what makes them so consistent.
Reason to Sell: Lack of Threes (and Recent History)
The latter point is undoubtedly why you're afraid to pick Arizona to win it all. I feel it, too.
Princeton, Buffalo, Wichita State, and too many encounters with Wisconsin—of course, the Badgers are looming as a Sweet 16 draw—spring to mind over the past quarter century of a program that hasn't even been to a Final Four since 2001.
The more rational concern, though, is that this team sometimes acts like it is allergic to the three-point line, ranking almost dead last in the nation in three-point rate.
Arizona can shoot threes. Heck, it went 20-for-45 (44.4 percent) from distance in the Big 12 tournament, with Anthony Dell'Orso catching fire in the semifinal win over Iowa State. However, they've made four or fewer triples in 14 of their 34 games.
Because of that, with the exception of the season opener against Florida, they've struggled to even sniff their season average of 86 PPG when facing imposing frontcourts.
Verdict: Buying
Everyone agrees there is a clear top three of title contenders in Duke, Michigan, and Arizona.
But it's weird that the market views Duke and Michigan as 1A/1B with Arizona as a slightly distant No. 3, right?
We're talking about a team that was 23-0 with wins away from home over Florida, Connecticut, Alabama, and UCLA; a team that perhaps still would be undefeated today were it not for a late collapse and overtime loss to (full-strength) Texas Tech and the apparent impossibility of trying to win at Kansas on Big Monday.
Arizona has twice beaten Houston, twice beaten Iowa State, and once pummeled Kansas since that pair of nail-biting losses to quality foes. The Wildcats enter the dance as arguably the most "recession proof" team in the country, and maybe should be the betting favorite because of it.
Michigan Wolverines (Midwest No. 1 Seed)
7 of 8
Odds: +337
Reason to Buy: Freight Train Tendencies
There's a good chance that you decided in November/December that Michigan was going to be your pick to win it all, and you might be right to stick with it. The way they steamrolled through six consecutive weeks of foes was terrifying, most notably that 101-61 trouncing of Gonzaga in the Players Era Festival championship game.
Though the Wolverines haven't been able to maintain quite that level of dominance all season long, they never gave us a great reason to doubt their ability to win it all, winning by double digits at each of Michigan State, Purdue, and Illinois, and playing doggone well in the loss to Duke in Washington, D.C.
Reason to Sell: The Weight on Elliot Cadeau's Shoulders
Even when the Wolverines were plowing through nonconference play with the best three-man frontcourt in the nation, Cadeau always felt like the possible Achilles' heel here.
That was amplified in a huge way when backup point guard L.J. Cason was lost to a torn ACL on March 1.
That's not your standard backup, to be clear. He averaged 20 minutes, 12 points, and three assists per game in February. And though Michigan has been able to continue winning without him, it's certainly noteworthy that four of this team's six lowest scoring games of the season have come in the past two weeks.
Verdict: Selling
It's not difficult to envision a scenario in which Yaxel Lendeborg, Aday Mara, and Morez Johnson Jr. own the NCAA tournament. Any of the trio can take over a game, and godspeed to the opposition when all three show up in a big way.
But Michigan is inevitably going to run into a team that can drag the game to a halt, force the Wolverines to run half-court offense, and possibly capitalize on their negative turnover margin for the year.
It's how Duke beat them. It's how Iowa and Wisconsin both came within three points of knocking them off. And it's that type of game that could keep this title favorite from even reaching the Final Four.
Duke Blue Devils
8 of 8
Odds: +323
Reason to Buy: Best Team in the Country
For all the talk throughout the season about Duke being the Cameron Boozer show, this wouldn't be a top-five offense, a top-five defense, and one of the best rebounding teams in the country if it were just him.
The Blue Devils beat Michigan on a neutral floor less than a month ago. They beat both Florida (home) and Michigan State (road) in the same week back in December. And save for one buzzer-beating, rivalry loss at UNC and one dramatic ending against a full-strength Texas Tech team that beat a bunch of title contenders this season, they're undefeated.
Reason to Sell: Injuries (and Low-Scoring Games)
Yes, Duke won the ACC tournament without two key starters in Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, both dealing with foot injuries.
But, you know, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia ain't exactly Connecticut, Florida, and Michigan, which could be the Blue Devils' final three games en route to a championship.
The hope is that Ngongba will be a full go for the big dance, and that Foster will be able to return in the Final Four, should Duke get there. However, we can't assume either will be operating at 100 percent, which means even more weight on Cameron Boozer's already laden shoulders.
Moreover, Duke is maybe a little too comfortable playing in games in which neither team even sniffs 80, which is a fantastic formula for getting upset by a team that catches fire from distance. And the Blue Devils do allow three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in the country.
Verdict: Selling
Duke is a near certainty to reach the Sweet 16 and a heavy favorite to reach the Final Four. And if they make it back to another "all No. 1 seeds" Final Four and all signs point toward Foster playing with no restrictions, the Blue Devils might be my pick at that point.
With the uncertainty surrounding the availability of their veteran leader, though, this line is just a little too short.
Though he is never deemed the Game MVP for Duke, there have been several games this season the Blue Devils almost certainly would have lost without Foster—notably the ones against Michigan, Michigan State, and Arkansas.
Fingers crossed that he's back for the biggest stage.
