The Blueprint for Team USA to Right the Ship and Win the World Baseball Classic
Team USA is only two victories away from winning the World Baseball Classic, and they're lucky that's the case after one catastrophic loss nearly ruined everything.
You know that "You're welcome, USA" Italy's Vinnie Pasquantino dropped on Wednesday? That was cold. It was also deserved, as Italy is responsible for an 8-6 loss that put Team USA on the brink of elimination and for a 9-1 win over Mexico that graciously permitted the Americans to limp from Pool B into the quarterfinals.
Friday's 5-3 win vs. Canada was a good start in regaining Team USA's confidence. However, Mark DeRosa and company can still shake things up with a better blueprint to ensure that Team USA's ultimate dream team doesn't go to waste on Sunday vs. the Dominican Republic.
Step 1: Act Like You Give a Damn
The Point: The vibe is all off, and it's not just the manager.
We're not saying Team USA's brush with elimination was DeRosa's fault, but we're not not saying that either.
He says he "misspoke" when he said the team had its ticket punched after a win over Mexico, and you have to hand it to him for recommitting to the bit on Thursday. But the percentage of the population buying it is precisely zero, with the more likely explanation being that he simply neglected to read the WBC manual after getting the keys to Team USA.
Managerial numbskullery aside, arguably the bigger problem with this American team is just how lifeless it feels.
That hype speech that Aaron Judge gave? That was bad.
That handshake that Cal Raleigh denied Randy Arozarena? That was lame, not to mention an affront to the spirit of the event. And then it happened again with Josh Naylor.
The distinct lack of espresso shots, sombreros, bearskins or any kind of signature celebration? Downright criminal.
At least with the Raleigh-Arozarena thing, you can see evidence of this team pulling in the same direction. But what's the point if you're not doing so with gusto? You can't lose by acting like you want to be there, and nothing melts egos like a pool of fun that everyone wants to swim in.
For Tarik Skubal, at least, playing in the WBC was a case of expectations crashing into reality. He anticipated an "All-Star Game-type of vibe," only to find it to be so much more before he reluctantly returned to the Detroit Tigers.
There's a lesson for those who still rep the USA. Don't be the Skubal who didn't know what he was walking into. Be the Skubal who hated walking back out.
Step 2: Please Stop Pretending It's Spring Training
The Point: The script is holding these arms back.
Team USA's pitching was the bright spot during pool play. Their 0.78 WHIP was the best of the round, as was their 57 strikeouts.
The nine home runs were the problem, but a lot of that was on Nolan McLean (2 HR) and Ryan Yarbrough (1 HR) getting lit up by Italy. The latter is now off the roster, while newcomer Joe Ryan will be an option to start over McLean should USA advance to the final.
Paul Skenes takes the mound in the semifinals against Luis Severino. As Logan Webb did vs. Canada (4.2 innings in 71 pitches, 4 hits, 0 runs), pitchers can now benefit from looser pitch count restrictions:
- Pool Play: 65 pitches
- Quarterfinals: 80 pitches
- Semifinals and Finals: 95 pitches
Even so, is it too much to ask for less nonsensical bullpen management?
For example, take DeRosa's choice to protect a 5-3 lead over Mexico in the ninth inning. Mason Miller was available, and he's obviously the best pitcher in the USA's bullpen, but Garrett Whitlock got the call instead. It worked, but it still felt like a poorly conceived roll of the dice.
As it turns out, it was the result of Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora calling DeRosa to lobby for Whitlock to throw. Not because he deserved the ball, but so he would stay on a normal spring schedule.
Such arrangements are reasonable for pool play, but on Friday, the strategy was more in line with the urgency of the moment. Whitlock pitched a scoreless eight before Miller blew away Team Canada in the ninth as the proper closer. It's all single elimination from here on out, so any pitching strategy that doesn't involve using the best arm available is simply wrong.
Step 3: Stop Messing Around with the Lineup
The Point: An offense with this much talent can and should be better.
On paper, Team USA had the best offense of any team going into the WBC. And it did get the job done, posting a .944 OPS and 35 runs over four games in pool play.
And yet, three teams had a better OPS, and four topped Team USA's home run count of seven. Relative to expectations, the American offense was frankly kind of mid.
Granted, part of the problem was the B-squad lineup born out of DeRosa's whoopsie ahead of the Italy debacle. But since some guys just didn't hit, here's a modest proposal for a new starting nine (with their WBC numbers so far):
- SS Bobby Witt Jr.: .971 OPS, 0 HR
- LF Roman Anthony: 1.007 OPS, 1 HR
- RF Aaron Judge: 1.054 OPS, 2 HR
- DH Kyle Schwarber: 1.063 OPS, 1 HR
- 3B Gunnar Henderson: 1.400 OPS, 1 HR
- C Cal Raleigh: .400 OPS, 0 HR
- 1B Bryce Harper: .494 OPS, 0 HR
- CF Byron Buxton: .286 OPS, 0 HR
- 2B Brice Turang: 1.167 OPS, 0 HR
This lineup would elevate the hot hands and keep good balance throughout, with the Schwarber-Henderson pair (both of whom bat lefty) representing the only case of back-to-back hitters from the same side of the plate.
Ultimately, DeRosa can't afford to leave runs on the table. Maximum offense is the best way to protect against any weirdness related to pitch counts and throw days.
Officially, our prediction for Team USA is that this year's journey will end with another loss to Japan in the final. However, this was before anyone knew about the new pitchers. Ryan, in particular, is a better match for Japan than McLean ever was.
This is to say that if the USA does fall short, it won't be because they didn't have the best roster. It will only be because they refused to be the best team.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
