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2026 World Baseball Classic Rankings and Predictions for Final 8 Teams in WBC Quarterfinals
There are only eight teams left standing in the World Baseball Classic, leaving just seven more to get the axe before a champion is crowned.
Pool play mostly went as expected, particularly to the extent that Shohei Ohtani and Japan ran roughshod over Pool C with a 4-0 record. And in Pool D, the star-studded rosters of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela easily prevailed.
If there was a surprise, it was that the most stacked roster the United States has ever had didn't survive Pool B unscathed. They advanced, but only after Italy gave them a scare in an 8-6 loss that ended up feeling a lot like an own goal.
With the board reset for the quarterfinals, semifinals and final match, it's time for a fresh set of rankings for all eight survivors. And then, predictions for how the final round will go.
Note: B/R's original rankings for all 20 WBC teams can be found here.
8. Korea
1 of 10
Original Rank: 8/20
Pool C Record: 2-2
Projected Lineup
DH Do Yeong Kim
LF Jahmai Jones
CF Jung Hoo Lee
RF Hyun Min Ahn
3B Shay Whitcomb
1B Bo Gyeong Moon
SS Jun Won Kim
C Dong Won Park
2B Hyeseong Kim
Korea's offense arguably played above expectations during Pool C play in Tokyo, notably to the extent that it produced one less home run than Japan for the round. Whitcomb and Moon hit two apiece, while Lee did fine work setting the table by going 5-for-18 with a walk.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Hyeong Jun So
SP Young Pyo Ko
SP Ju Young Son
CL Byeong Hyeon Jo
Pitching proved to be Korea's soft underbelly in Pool C. In 36 total innings, their hurlers surrendered 19 runs on 16 walks and 28 hits, including nine that cleared the fence. If this isn't cleaned up, something that barely feels like a Cinderella story could come to a swift end.
7. Canada
2 of 10
Original Rank: 7/20
Pool A Record: 3-1
Projected Lineup
2B Edouard Julien
1B Josh Naylor
RF Tyler O'Neill
DH Tyler Black
SS Otto Lopez
3B Abraham Toro
C Bo Naylor
LF Owen Caissie
CF Denzel Clarke
Canada slugged a paltry .363 throughout play in Pool A, which does underscore how this team can't hope to win slugfests the rest of the way. Yet it was good to see Caissie (1.458 OPS, 1 HR) have a breakout moment, and there is surely more to be mined from Josh Naylor after he went just 4-for-16 with no extra-base hits.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Michael Soroka
SP Jameson Taillon
SP Jordan Balazovic
CL Brock Dykxhoorn
After pitching five scoreless innings on Wednesday against Cuba to punch Canada's ticket, Cal Quantrill is in the mix here as well. It's a staff where nobody is overpowering, but not allowing a single home run in pool play gestures at what needs to be the model. So long as the defense does its job, of course.
6. Puerto Rico
3 of 10
Original Rank: 5/20
Pool A Record: 3-1
Projected Lineup
2B Willi Castro
LF Heliot Ramos
3B Nolan Arenado
RF Carlos Cortes
SS Darell Hernaiz
1B Emmanuel Rivera
DH Eddie Rosario
CF Matthew Lugo
C Martín Maldonado
Think Puerto Rico is missing Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa? Though they survived Pool A with a 3-1 record, it was with just a .582 OPS and a single home run. It's hard to get any worse than that, but it's also hard to envision how this offense is going to do better.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Seth Lugo
SP Eduardo Rivera
SP Elmer Rodríguez
CL Edwin Díaz
There was briefly some buzz about José Berríos coming aboard, only for him to become the latest Puerto Rican star to run into insurance issues. Yet pitching remains this team's best shot at going all the way. It had a 1.22 ERA in pool play, with 40 strikeouts against 19 hits (including zero homers) in 37 innings.
5. Italy
4 of 10
Original Rank: 10/20
Pool B Record: 4-0
Projected Lineup
CF Jakob Marsee
2B Jon Berti
1B Vinnie Pasquantino
DH Dominic Canzone
3B Zach Dezenzo
RF Jac Caglianone
SS Thomas Saggese
LF Dante Nori
C J.J. D'Orazio
As much as it hurts to lose catcher Kyle Teel to a hamstring injury, this Italian lineup has everyone's attention. Whether it was the espresso or whatever, something got into this team as it posted a 1.038 OPS in Pool B. Nine different players homered, highlighted by Pasquantino's three-homer outburst against Mexico on Wednesday.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Sam Aldegheri
SP Dylan DeLucia
SP Michael Lorenzen
CL Greg Weissert
Pitching is still the thing that is most likely to sink Italy, as there just aren't power arms here that can go toe-to-toe with the best ones left in the tournament. But to give credit where it's due, Italy did strike out three times as many batters (45) as it walked (15) in pool play.
4. Venezuela
5 of 10
Original Rank: 4/20
Pool D Record: 3-1
Projected Lineup
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
3B Maikel Garcia
2B Luis Arraez
1B Willson Contreras
DH Salvador Perez
C William Contreras
CF Javier Sanojo
SS Andrés Giménez
Arraez (4 2B, 2 HR) still has his inexplicable habit of busting out a power bat in the World Baseball Classic, and Venezuela's lineup looks better for it. Acuña's star power remains the center of gravity at the top, but there just aren't any easy outs from top to bottom—and lest anyone forget, Eugenio Suárez is available off the bench.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Ranger Suárez
SP Enmanuel De Jesus
SP Yoendrys Gómez
CL Daniel Palencia
This is not an overpowering staff, as seen in how Venezuela only struck out 36 hitters in 36 innings during Pool D play. But that was with only nine walks, highlighting the collective strike-throwing ability of this team. And after fanning eight batters over five scoreless innings against Israel, De Jesus is on the map.
3. United States
6 of 10
Original Rank: 1/20
Pool B Record: 3-1
Projected Lineup
SS Bobby Witt Jr.
1B Bryce Harper
RF Aaron Judge
DH Kyle Schwarber
3B Alex Bregman
C Cal Raleigh
LF Roman Anthony
CF Byron Buxton
2B Brice Turang
It wasn't due to a lack of offense that the USA failed to go unbeaten in Pool B. They scored 35 runs in four games, with five different hitters finishing with at least one homer and an OPS over 1.000. That was without any hits from Raleigh or Buxton, who are too talented to stay quiet for long.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Logan Webb
SP Paul Skenes
SP Nolan McLean
CL Mason Miller
Even without Tarik Skubal, this is still the best pitching staff the Americans have assembled for the World Baseball Classic. It mostly showed during pool play in the form of 57 strikeouts against six walks over 36 innings. The one problem was the long ball, with the Americans serving up nine of them out of just 22 total hits.
2. Dominican Republic
7 of 10
Original Rank: 3/20
Pool D Record: 4-0
Projected Lineup
RF Fernando Tatis Jr.
2B Ketel Marte
LF Juan Soto
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3B Manny Machado
DH Junior Caminero
CF Julio Rodríguez
C Austin Wells
SS Geraldo Perdomo
This is an obscene lineup that did obscene things in Pool D to the tune of a .313/.458/.672 slash line. That's basically a peak Soto season right there, and he was one of five players who went yard at least twice in pool play. The secret weapon is Oneil Cruz, whose two homers topped 115 mph and traveled 850 feet in total.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Cristopher Sánchez
SP Luis Severino
SP Brayan Bello
CL Carlos Estévez
Not pictured here is Sandy Alcantara, who is the fourth-best starter the Dominicans have despite being a former Cy Young Award winner. This is a powerful staff with a collective average of 95.4 mph on the fastball. And should they meet Japan, the Dominican Republic knows that Sánchez is a good match for Shohei Ohtani.
1. Japan
8 of 10
Original Rank: 2/20
Pool C Record: 4-0
Projected Lineup
DH Shohei Ohtani
RF Kensuke Kondoh
CF Seiya Suzuki
LF Masataka Yoshida
3B Kazuma Okamoto
1B Munetaka Murakami
2B Shugo Maki
SS Sosuke Genda
C Kenya Wakatsuki
Ohtani isn't pitching in the WBC this year, but he sure looked ready to hit as he went 5-for-9 with a double, two homers and six RBI in Pool C. Suzuki and Yoshida also homered twice, so good luck if MLB newcomers Okamoto and Murakami catch fire and add some depth beneath the vaunted front four.
Projected Rotation/Closer
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
SP Yusei Kikuchi
SP Tomoyuki Sugano
CL Taisei Ota
Yamamoto was shaky in his lone assignment in Pool C play, but he remains the kind of guy you take in any matchup against any ace. And even if it was against relatively light competition, Japan's total of 49 strikeouts over 34 innings is still an eye-popping total that should have the attention of the seven teams left in the tournament.
Predicting the Quarterfinals
9 of 10
Quarterfinal 1: Korea vs. Dominican Republic
Time: Friday, March 13 at 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
This feels like a David vs. Goliath matchup, particularly where these two offenses are concerned. Korea will have a shot if they can keep all the power of the Dominican lineup contained, but as noted earlier, keeping the ball in the yard wasn't exactly a strength in pool play.
Winner: Dominican Republic
Quarterfinal 2: United States vs. Canada
Time: Friday, March 13 at 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park in Houston, Texas
The last thing the USA wants to see after their scare against Italy is another lineup full of mashers. The Canadian offense is therefore a sight for sore eyes, and getting to turn things back over to Logan Webb makes for an even deeper sigh of relief. And presumably, manager Mark DeRosa will know this one counts.
Winner: United States
Quarterfinal 3: Puerto Rico vs. Italy
Time: Saturday, March 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park in Houston, Texas
Can Puerto Rico's excellent pitching silence Italy's surprisingly potent offense? Don't put it past them to do so, but the margin for error here ultimately favors the Italians. They scored more than twice as many runs as Puerto Rico in pool play, and that doesn't feel like a fluke. Italy's lineup is scary.
Winner: Italy
Quarterfinal 4: Venezuela vs. Japan
Time: Saturday, March 14 at 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
Of the four quarterfinal matchups, this one feels like the fairest fight on paper. Both clubs have top-heavy lineups and a proper No. 1 starter set to take the ball. But if it's a choice between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ranger Suárez vs. Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the latter is hard to resist.
Winner: Japan
Predicting the Semifinals and Final
10 of 10
Semifinal 1: Dominican Republic vs. United States
Time: Sunday, March 15 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
At first glance, you wonder if they're gonna need a bigger scoreboard for this one. These are the two best offenses in the tournament, and it's power vs. power with no clear edge on either side.
And yet, the USA is slated to lead its pitching attack with Paul Skenes in this one. He's simply the best pitcher left standing in the World Baseball Classic, and he's just unflappable enough to not lose his cool in such a big moment.
Winner: United States
Semifinal 2: Italy vs. Japan
Time: Monday, March 16 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
This matchup just plain sounds fun, particularly given that both Italy and Japan put on offensive shows in pool play. The latter has more recognizable names, but pool play was a breakout moment for multiple up-and-comers in Italy's lineup.
What could swing this game, though, is Japan's likely starter. It's Yusei Kikuchi, who'll have the advantage of being a left-hander facing an Italian lineup that leans heavily to the left.
Winner: Japan
Final: United States vs. Japan
Time: Tuesday, March 17 at 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida
It just has to end this way, doesn't it? The USA and Japan met in the final to determine the World Baseball Classic in 2023, and the image of Shohei Ohtani striking out Mike Trout is still seared into retinas around the world.
The Americans brought an even better lineup this time around, but the real question will be if their pitching can keep Japan's bats at bay. To this end, Nolan McLean can't have another stinker like he did against Italy.
It has the makings of a bad matchup for the USA. McLean spins a lot of breaking stuff, and therefore will need Japanese hitters to swing at his pitches. And to this end, there isn't a team in the WBC that showed better discipline (i.e., 17.0 Chase%) in pool play.
Winner: Japan
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
