NCAA Tournament 2026 Top Sleeper Teams amid Men's March Madness Bracketology Picks
The 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament will be top heavy with five legitimate title contenders likely to be on the No. 1 or No. 2 seed lines.
It'll be easy for a lot of fans to pick the Duke Blue Devils, Michigan Wolverines, Florida Gators, Arizona Wildcats or UConn Huskies to cut down the nets.
But this is March Madness we're talking about. There will be surprises of some sort in the next few weeks.
A handful of sleeper teams are lurking in the potential bracket, including a squad with one of the best resumes in the country.
Wisconsin
1 of 3
The Wisconsin Badgers have four wins against teams ranked in the top 10 on KenPom.
The Badgers scored over 90 points in all four of their wins over Michigan, the Michigan State Spartans, Illinois Fighting Illini and Purdue Boilermakers.
Greg Gard's team is only projected to be a No. 6 seed, per ESPN's Joe Lunardi, because of a few bad losses, but when it plays at its best, it can challenge the top teams in the country.
The Badgers have a pair of 18+ point per game scorers in Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. They rank in the top 50 in a handful of offensive metrics on KenPom and they are 15th in the country in free-throw shooting.
Wisconsin has the potential to improve its seed with a few wins at the Big Ten tournament, but if it remains on the No. 6 line, it could be a dangerous opponent for a No. 3 seed coming off a likely easy first-round win.
Saint Mary's
2 of 3
No one wants to see the Saint Mary's Gaels in the first round.
Saint Mary's boasts the 11th-best three-point percentage and the top free-throw shooting percentage in Division I.
The Gaels are also impressive on the other end of the floor, where they have the seventh-best scoring in the nation.
Randy Bennett's program is 3-1 in the first round in the last four years, and it should come into the Big Dance with a bit of extra motivation.
The Gaels were denied one final shot at the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the WCC tournament final due to a semifinal loss to the Santa Clara Broncos.
Saint Mary's will have a week-and-a-half to sit on that loss, so don't be surprised if it comes out with a vengeance in the first round.
Lunardi currently projects the Gaels as a No. 7 seed. Their combination of strong shooting and impressive defense will make them an incredibly tough out for a No. 2 seed in the second round.
Northern Iowa
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The Northern Iowa Panthers can be competitive in their first-round game because of their defense.
UNI gives up the fewest points per game in the nation at 61.3. That's a whole 1.2 points better than Duke's second-ranked scoring defense.
The Panthers won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament by holding all four opponents under 70 points. Two of its foes didn't eclipse the 60-point mark.
In fact, UNI has only allowed one team to score over 70 points against it in its 23 victories.
UNI is a No. 12 seed in Lunardi's latest projection, and if that prediction holds, the Panthers will be one of the most popular Cinderella picks.
As long as the defense is there, UNI can frustrate a high-major team or two and become the darling of the Big Dance.
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