How Can USA Advance in 2026 WBC Bracket After Upset Loss to Italy? Tiebreaker Scenarios Explained

The United States went from World Baseball Classic favorites to needing help to advance out of Pool B and into the quarterfinals.

Italy seized control of the group with Tuesday's 8-6 victory over the Americans. It is now 3-0 and controls its own destiny heading into Wednesday's game against 2-1 Mexico. The United States is 3-1 and still very much alive with the top two finishers in each group advancing, but its fate will depend on the game between Mexico and Italy.

Chad Jennings of The Athletic broke the scenario down with the easiest path coming from an Italy win. That would eliminate Mexico and allow the Americans to advance.

Things get more complicated if Mexico beats Italy since all three teams will be 3-1 with a 1-1 record in head-to-head games among the trio. The next tiebreaker will be "the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied," per the event's website.

Jennings noted that essentially means "the fewest runs per out in head-to-head games" and explained the United States would advance if "Team Mexico wins a high-scoring game while allowing at least six runs."

Mexico needs to win without allowing Italy to score more than five runs if it is going to reach the quarterfinals.

It is a stunning position for the star-studded American team to be in, but it had no answer for Michael Lorenzen in Tuesday's loss. The veteran allowed just two hits in 4.2 shutout innings while Italy used home runs from Kyle Teel, Jac Caglianone and Sam Antonacci to seize a lead.

Pete Crow-Armstrong did what he could to bring the Red, White and Blue back with a three-run homer in the seventh and a solo homer in the ninth, but some of the team's other big bats failed to come through in the biggest moments.

Bryce Harper flew out in the eighth as the tying run, while Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge each struck out in the ninth in the same position.

As a result, the United States no longer controls its own destiny.