2026 Men's College Basketball Conference Tournament Final Predictions
Six of the 31 automatic tickets for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament have already been punched, but this is where Champ 'Week' really starts cooking with gas.
At a national level, the regular season is officially over. No more of the chaos from the past week where you need to keep reminding yourself whether you're watching a regular-season game or a conference tournament game.
Nothing but single-elimination chaos from here on out.
So, who wins the other 25 tournaments yet to be decided?
Well, I'll do my best to let you know, but they do call it March Madness for a reason. In most years, even the winner of "The Jerome" only correctly picks around 20 of the 31 conference tournament champions, and most are lucky to get 10 correct.
Though, looking back at my early predictions from late February, maybe this is the year I win that chaotic contest?
We'll save the major leagues for the end, but let's start out with a few words on the six teams officially in the dance before building up to those free-for-all extravaganzas.
Six Champions Already Crowned
1 of 9
Ohio Valley—Tennessee State Tigers. This program hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 1994, but first-year head coach Nolan Smith got them back. Five Tigers scored at least 14 points in the championship game romp of Morehead State, and now we all wait to see if the selection committee will do the awesome thing and put Smith in a first-round matchup with Duke.
Atlantic Sun—Queens Royals. In its first year of eligibility for the NCAA tournament, Queens is going dancing. It was swept by Central Arkansas during the regular season, but in an overtime bonanza on Sunday afternoon, the Royals toppled the Bears, despite 49 points from ASUN POY Camren Hunter. In five games this season against high-major competition, Queens allowed 102.6 PPG. So, don't expect much defense here.
Big South—High Point Panthers. Just like last season, the Panthers enter the NCAA tournament on a 14-game winning streak, now 59-10 overall since the beginning of last season. Cam'Ron Fletcher was in and out of the lineup all season, but he saved his best for the biggest moment, going for 17 points and 19 rebounds in the championship win over Winthrop. If he plays in the tournament, this could be a scary No. 12/13 seed.
Missouri Valley—Northern Iowa Panthers. UNI really struggled in January, dropping six out of seven games with Tristan Smith out of the lineup. But he returned to the floor in February and to the starting lineup in March for a Panthers team seeking another Cinderella story. Sure would be fun if the selection committee pitted them against Kansas in the first round, no?
Summit League—North Dakota State Bison. The last time the Bison won the Summit League tournament was about 36 hours before the world as we knew it ended. They stomped North Dakota by 36 in the championship of the 2020 tourney, and beat them again Sunday night. This time, we'll hopefully get to see what they can do in the dance. They have yet to play a top 100 team this season, though.
Northeast—Long Island Sharks. Technically, there is still a championship game to be played between LIU and Mercyhurst on Tuesday. But because the Lakers are ineligible for the NCAA tournament as they complete their four-year transition to D-I, the Sharks have already officially punched their ticket. What a four-year turnaround under Rod Strickland it has been for LIU, going from 3-26 in 2022-23 to a 23-win regular-season champ. Maybe they can also win this ultimately meaningless game.
Eight Tournaments Already Well Underway
2 of 9
Southern Conference (7 p.m. ET, Monday, ESPN)—East Tennessee State Buccaneers. ETSU was already the favorite, but this bracket sure did shatter nicely for the Buccaneers with the Nos. 2, 3 and 4 seeds all losing in the quarters. They swept Furman during the regular season and will be expected to make it 3-for-3 in the championship game.
Sun Belt (7 p.m. ET, Monday, ESPN2)—Georgia Southern Eagles. What's one more, right? The Sun Belt's No. 10 seed has already had to win five games in five days to set up this championship showdown with Troy. This Eagles offense has been cooking with gas. But do they have any gas left in the tank? Don't you dare miss this historic quest.
Coastal (7 p.m. ET, Tuesday, CBS Sports)—Hofstra Pride. UNC-Wilmington was the No. 1 seed, but Hofstra was always the favorite. And with the Seahawks losing to No. 9 seed Campbell in the quarterfinals, it's time for Cruz Davis and the Pride to make their run. They won at Pitt and at Syracuse in December and almost won at UCF to open the season. Mighty dangerous team if it gets in.
Horizon (7 p.m. ET, Tuesday, ESPN)—Robert Morris Colonials. Bobby Mo has all of the mo, undefeated since the beginning of February, which includes a season sweep of Horizon No. 1 seed Wright State. They should square off in the title game.
Metro Atlantic (9 p.m. ET, Tuesday, ESPN2)—Merrimack Warriors. Since starting 2-6, Merrimack has won 21 of its last 25 games with freshman point guard Kevair Kennedy blossoming into one of the best first-year mid-major players in the nation. Twice in February, he went for at least 20 points, five rebounds, five assists and five steals in a single game.
West Coast (9 p.m. ET, Tuesday, ESPN)—Gonzaga Bulldogs. The massive bubble game in this tournament is the semifinal between Saint Mary's and Santa Clara. But assuming Gonzaga gets past Oregon State in its semifinal, it will be waiting for the winner of that one, looking to secure its 22nd (and final) WCC tournament title since 1999.
Patriot League (7 p.m. ET, Wednesday, CBS Sports)—Boston Terriers. Navy was the heavy favorite in this tournament after winning the league by a six-game margin. But Boston stunned the Midshipmen when Chance Gladden hit a buzzer-beating three-pointer in the semifinals to knock out Navy, setting up a title game at Lehigh. The Mountain Hawks won both regular season games, but Boston has the vastly superior offense and has won nine of its last 10.
America East (11 a.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2)—UMBC Retrievers. As the No. 1 seed in this tournament, UMBC will have home-court advantage straight through to the championship game. And thus far this season, the Retrievers are a perfect 8-0 at home against their America East brethren. Only two more until this 2018 NCAA tournament legend gets back to the dance.
Nine Other One-Bid Leagues
3 of 9
Southland (5 p.m. ET, Wednesday, ESPN2)—McNeese Cowboys. Stephen F. Austin won the league. However, McNeese is the better team as far as the predictive metrics are concerned, and the Cowboys will have home-court advantage, where they virtually never lose in recent years.
Big Sky (11:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday, ESPN2)—Northern Colorado Bears. After starting out 11-1, No. 1 seed Portland State lost four of its final six regular season games. Meanwhile, after starting out 1-7 in league play, Northern Colorado won nine of its final 10. Ride the momentum.
MEAC (1 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2)—Howard Bison. Howard is sitting around 200th on KenPom, which would be bad news in most conferences. In the MEAC, though, that makes this No. 1 seed the heavy favorite. Getting a bye straight to the semifinals doesn't hurt, either.
SWAC (7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPNU)—Bethune Cookman Wildcats. My previous pick here was Jackson State, but the Tigers' phenomenal lead guard, Daeshun Ruffin suffered a lower leg injury in the regular season finale and his availability for this tournament is unknown at this time. So let's pivot to picking BCU, which won the league by a three-game margin.
Conference USA (8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, CBS Sports)—Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. Another pivot from our early picks, as Liberty's ship has been taking on water for weeks, dropping three of its final five games and struggling in the other two. At this point, a little chaos could be in order. And we'll now take the Hilltoppers, who went on the road and drilled Liberty by 21 a few weeks ago.
Big West (10 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2)—UC Irvine Anteaters. UCI is nowhere near as good as it was last season, but it still has an incredibly stingy defense anchored by shot-blocking big man Kyle Evans. Should be able to win a pair of low-scoring affairs to secure this bid.
Western Athletic (midnight ET, Saturday, ESPN2)—Cal Baptist Lancers. Utah Valley sued the league to renew its eligibility for this tournament, but that doesn't mean UVU will win it. CBU and Dominique Daniels Jr. will be a problem.
Ivy League (noon ET, Sunday, ESPN2)—Cornell Big Red. Yale really should win this four-team tournament, but it'll be No. 4 seed Cornell with home-court advantage in Ithaca, where the Big Red knocked off Yale less than two weeks ago while winning eight of its final 11 games.
American (3:15 p.m. ET, Sunday, ESPN)—South Florida Bulls. It still doesn't feel right that the AAC has no realistic hope for multiple bids. But if No. 1 seed South Florida wins this thing, it will be the No. 12 seed that nobody wants to draw. The Bulls haven't lost since January, and all three of their losses since Christmas were decided either by one point or in double overtime.
Three Potential Multi-Bid Leagues
4 of 9
Mountain West (6 p.m. ET, Saturday, CBS)—Colorado State Rams
No. 1 seed Utah State lost three of its last five. No. 2 seed San Diego State dropped four of its last six. No. 3 seed New Mexico lost four of its final four games.
In other words, the "favorites" aren't exactly surging into this tourney.
But Colorado State had won eight in a row prior to losing its season final against Boise State. The Rams have been a force since getting close to full strength, and they were the somewhat surprising winner of the MWC tourney last year. No reason they can't run it back again.
Mid-American (8 p.m. ET, Saturday, ESPN2)—Miami-Ohio RedHawks
You may have heard that Miami-Ohio is undefeated. You may also have heard that Akron is actually the best team in this league, at least as far as KenPom is concerned. And if the Zips were to beat the RedHawks in the championship game, there is a real chance we'll end up with a two-bid MAC for the first time since 1999.
Here's hoping Miami just finishes off the perfect season, though, because I might have to retire from bracketology on the spot if a 33-1 RedHawks team gets left out of the dance, especially with this year's bubble.
Atlantic 10 (1 p.m. ET, Sunday, CBS)—VCU Rams
For months on end, this was Saint Louis' tournament to lose. The Billikens started out 24-1 and looked like a legitimate threat for a deep run in the big dance. During their 3-3 finish, though, they lost by five at Rhode Island, by 15 at Dayton and by 29 at George Mason.
Now, the door is open for VCU to potentially punch its bubbly ticket with an automatic bid. The Rams did get swept by SLU during the regular season, but will the Billikens even be waiting for them in the championship game? If not, VCU is otherwise undefeated in its last 14 games.
Atlantic Coast
5 of 9
Dates: Tuesday-Saturday, championship at 8:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
NCAA Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami (FL), Clemson
On the Bubble: NC State, SMU, California, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Predicted Winner: Duke Blue Devils
The bubble potential in the ACC tournament is off the charts.
Both NC State and SMU felt like near-locks two weeks ago, but each ended the regular season on a four-game losing streak to keep things dicey.
At least NC State ended up with a respectable No. 7 seed in this tournament, potentially needing just one win over Stanford or Pitt to seal the deal. Seeing SMU all the way down at the No. 11 seed is jarring, and the Mustangs likely need to beat Syracuse and Louisville to feel safe about their spot in the field.
Elsewhere, ACC No. 9 seed California, No. 10 seed Stanford and No. 12 Virginia Tech aren't exactly dead. However, it's very likely they'll need to reach the quarterfinals to have a real case for a bid.
For Cal, that means beating red hot Florida State and a nearly unbeatable Duke team. Good luck with that.
VT would need to go through Wake Forest, Clemson and North Carolina, which might be feasible. The Hokies did recently win at Clemson and almost won at UNC. Definitely unlikely, though.
For Stanford, the path is Pitt, NC State and Virginia. But if Ebuka Okorie catches fire, why not?
When all the smoke clears, though, Duke should be the champ. (Though, with both Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster dealing with foot injuries, maybe three wins in three days is asking too much?) And with any luck, the Blue Devils will draw No. 3 seed Miami (FL) in the title game, since the ACC saw fit to not have those teams face each other at all this season.
Big 12
6 of 9
Dates: Tuesday-Saturday, championship at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN
NCAA Locks: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
On the Bubble: TCU, UCF, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
Predicted Winner: Kansas Jayhawks
Yes, that is Big 12 tournament No. 14 seed listed as still being on the bubble. But the Cowboys do likely need a miracle run of wins over Colorado, TCU and Kansas to legitimately re-enter the at-large mix. Their resume metrics have been solid all season long, though, so they at least remain on the fringe with no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses.
Cincinnati is also on the fringe, albeit with a Quad 4 loss to Eastern Michigan. But if they were to consecutively beat Utah, UCF and Arizona they would jump back into the mix.
TCU is virtually a lock, though, after winning eight of its final nine games. The Horned Frogs are in that sort of "lock as long as they don't immediately lose (to Colorado or Oklahoma State) and there aren't a handful of bid thieves" range.
UCF is also relatively safely in. It looked questionable after they lost at West Virginia on Friday night, but watching basically the entire bubble also suffer losses on Saturday was a huge help. If they survive their opener against Cincinnati or Utah, punch the Knights' ticket.
On the Big 12 tournament champion front, though, the obvious pick is Arizona, but the "let's get a little weird" pick is Kansas.
Don't look now, but Darryn Peterson has been a full participant in five consecutive games. Granted, the Jayhawks lost three of those five, including bad losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State.
But wouldn't this be a wild ending to this whole Peterson saga? Leading Kansas to a Big 12 tournament title, everyone finally buying on a Rock Chalk title contender, maybe getting a No. 2 seed in the dance...only to suffer an incomprehensible second-round loss to someone like Villanova or Clemson?
Big East
7 of 9
Dates: Wednesday-Saturday, championship at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX
NCAA Locks: Connecticut, St. John's, Villanova
On the Bubble: N/A
Predicted Winner: St. John's Red Storm
With St. John's win at Seton Hall on Friday, the dream of the Pirates receiving an at-large bid is effectively dead. They won a single game all season against a KenPom top 70 team, and even that neutral site victory over NC State has lost serious luster in recent weeks.
Frankly, it's a testament to the state of the bubble that Seton Hall even stayed in the mix as long as it did, despite getting swept by DePaul and finishing .500 in this extremely down league.
That said, a three-bid league means decent bid-thief potential, right? Either Seton Hall or Creighton will play in a semifinal, presumably against No. 1 seed St. John's.
Good luck with that, though, because aside from one colossal egg laying at Storrs a couple of weeks ago, the Red Storm has been unbeatable for two months, winning 16 of its final 17 regular season games.
Thanks to Connecticut's jaw-dropping loss to Marquette to end the regular season, the Johnnies get the No. 1 seed in a tournament that they were already going to be hosting at Madison Square Garden. But now, they don't need to deal with Villanova, unless the Wildcats upset UConn in that semifinal—which would really depress anyone planning to scalp tickets to Round III of UConn-St. John's on Saturday night.
Big Ten
8 of 9
Dates: Tuesday-Sunday, championship at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS
NCAA Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Wisconsin, UCLA
On the Bubble: Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana
Predicted Winner: Illinois Fighting Illini
Starting again with the bubble teams, we're pretty confident that both Ohio State and Iowa will be dancing, each with at least three Quad 1 wins, nine Quad 1/2 wins and metrics that average out to around 32 overall. But if the Oregon-Maryland winner were to upset Iowa? Before also upsetting Ohio State? Let's just say for now that they're still on the bubble.
Indiana, on the other hand, definitely has work to do. The Hoosiers will draw the winner of Northwestern-Penn State for the right to face Purdue in the third round. They might need to win both, but they absolutely need to win the first one.
As far as the championship pick is concerned, this one doesn't often go to the No. 1 seed.
Purdue got it in 2023 and Michigan State did so in 2019, but seven of the last nine were won by someone other than the regular season champion. And with Michigan already unofficially locked in as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region and adjusting to life without LJ Cason, it might not care all that much about trying to win three games in three days in Chicago.
So give us Illinois, which has won this tournament in two of the past five seasons and has one of those wildly-efficient-but-not-breakneck-paced offenses that is wired to win this type of event, provided it gets hot.
The Illini have gone through a tough stretch of close losses over the past five weeks. But, hey, Michigan lost its final three regular season games before winning this thing one year ago. And 2023 Purdue dropped four of its final eight before locking back in for three straight wins. Momentum is irrelevant in this conference tournament.
Southeastern
9 of 9
Dates: Wednesday-Sunday, championship at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN
NCAA Locks: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia
On the Bubble: Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M, Auburn, Oklahoma
Predicted Winner: Florida Gators
To be sure, those five bubble teams fall into three separate boats.
Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M are each currently projected to dance with a little room to spare. But if Texas were to lose its Wednesday opener to Ole Miss, that's a big problem. Same goes for if LSU upsets Kentucky and also knocks off Missouri on Thursday afternoon. And if Texas A&M loses to Oklahoma, well, that's how the Sooners become a viable at-large candidate again—though, they should probably also beat Arkansas on Friday.
And then there's Auburn.
"Fifteen losses but with five pretty solid wins," frustrating to every bracketologist Auburn.
After losing Saturday night to Alabama, the Tigers will draw Mississippi State in their opener, hoping to get to Tennessee on Thursday, Vanderbilt on Friday and Florida on Saturday. If they lose to MSU or the Volunteers, they're finished. But a trip to the quarterfinals would make things interesting again.
That's enough SEC bubble, though, as the real story here is Florida's quest for another national championship.
The Gators were already hot heading into this tournament one year ago, and then they barely broke a sweat while storming through Nashville. Cruising through Missouri/Kentucky, Vanderbilt/Tennessee and Alabama/Arkansas could once again be their coronation of sorts.
And the way they've been playing for more than a month, it's hard to bet against that outcome.
.jpg?w=480 "NFL Meetings Football")
.jpg?w=600 "Jeremiyah Love on Giants' Radar")
