One-and-Done Candidates Who Will Light Up the NBA Draft Radar in 2015-16
Freshmen willing to leave college for the NBA after just one year are typically loaded with potential. They don't sell scouts on three to four seasons of production—they sell them on upside.
Thus, the following prospects were mostly highly touted recruits out of high school.
Now, they'll likely star for their respective college programs at 18 and 19 years old. And in turn, we should anticipate the draft buzz to pick up.
While all of these prospects should be expected to earn first-round consideration, it's very possible the top five to six picks in June 2016 will each be a one-and-done freshman.
We ranked these freshmen from worst to best based on NBA potential, which takes into account everything from physical tools, skill level and intangibles.
11. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky, 6'3", PG
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Isaiah Briscoe comes to Kentucky with the size and 215-pound build of an NBA point guard. And even though he'll be sharing a backcourt with Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray, it won't hide Briscoe's ball skills or coveted toughness.
He's a bully who plays through contact while possessing a sharp enough handle to dance around it. Briscoe is terrific in the paint, where he can finish at awkward angles using either hand below the rim.
And though more of a scorer than natural facilitator, he's comfortable finding teammates off penetration and screens.
Over time, Briscoe will need to tighten up his jumper and continue extending his range, but he's a capable shot-maker off the catch and dribble. There aren't any alarming red flags regarding his shooting potential.
Briscoe should quickly emerge as an impact player for the Wildcats, and assuming he doesn't have trouble fitting into the three-guard rotation, he'll have a real good shot at the 2016 first round.
"I've been watching Kentucky for a long time," Briscoe said, via Jerry Tipton of the Lexington Herald-Leader. "I love the way [coach John Calipari] lets his guards play. I just wanted to be next up as a great Kentucky guard."
10. Dwayne Bacon, Florida State, 6'4", SG
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Dwayne Bacon passes the eye test with textbook 2-guard size and smooth athleticism. His physical tools and scoring arsenal should immediately stand out under the NBA lens.
Bacon is dangerous working one-on-one, where he can separate into various pull-up or step-back jumpers and knock them down under pressure. Meanwhile, a tight handle makes him a threat to attack the rim and weave through traffic in transition.
As long as he doesn't turn scouts off with questionable shot selection and decision-making, obvious talent and immediate production should lead to draft buzz in 2016. There is a chance he ends up competing with Mississippi State's Malik Newman, Michigan's Caris LeVert and Turkey's Furkan Korkmaz for the title of top 2-guard prospect in next year's field.
9. Diamond Stone, Maryland, 6'10", C
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Diamond Stone's 6'10", 250-pound man frame should draw attention early. He's a physical mismatch at the college level with a body built for the NBA's interior.
But Stone offers a little more than just size and mass.
He's a tough back-to-the-basket cover on the block and a cleanup machine around the rim, where his soft hands and length translate to putbacks, as well as other easy layups and dunks.
And though it's not his bread and butter, we have seen Stone flash some touch away from the basket.
Even if his technique and awareness aren't spot-on, his presence alone should hold value at the defensive end.
With the Terps' roster Final Four-worthy, there should be plenty of eyes on Stone, easily the team's most coveted NBA prospect.
8. Malik Newman, Mississippi State, 6'4", SG
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Malik Newman's scoring and playmaking skills have drawn comparisons to Monta Ellis and Ben Gordon—combos who could generate offense on demand.
Though slightly undersized for a traditional off-guard, Newman compensates with electric athleticism and a point guard's handle.
He's extremely dangerous off the dribble, where he can create and make shots from every spot or angle on the floor. Step-backs, pull-ups, runners—Newman is a terrific one-on-one player, and though his first instinct is to score, his ability to shake and lose defenders translates to drive-and-dish assists.
His decision-making and shot selection will be under the microscope at Mississippi State. Newman is fairly trigger-happy and could be vulnerable to inefficiency.
Still, the NBA folks are bound to value the offensive firepower he packs. With positionless basketball on the rise, the concerns over Newman's weaknesses should be easier to overlook.
7. Henry Ellenson, Marquette, 6'10", PF/C
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Henry Ellenson's skill level for a 6'10" big shouldn't be difficult to spot. He'll play center at Marquette, but with a face-up game out to 20 feet away, NBA teams may view Ellenson as a versatile power forward.
At 6'10", 231 pounds, he can put it on the floor and change direction or separate into fallaway jumpers. You just don't see many prospects his size this polished with the ball, from his shooting range to his shot creativity.
Ellenson won't overwhelm with strength and athleticism, but he isn't a stiff, and his frame looks capable of filling out and adding bulk.
There won't be any shortage of touches for Ellenson at Marquette. As ESPN's Paul Biancardi notes, "The offense will flow through him as he contributes and influences this program immediately."
Though Ellenson might not project as a rim protector or plus defender, I suspect he'll sell the NBA on his scoring and versatility. The Kevin Love comparisons seem inevitable.
6. Cheick Diallo, Kansas, 6'9", PF/C
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Named MVP of both the McDonald's All-American game and Jordan Brand Classic (co-MVP), Cheick Diallo won't be sneaking up on anybody.
Thought not typically known for his go-to scoring repertoire, Diallo impacts games with his motor on both sides of the ball.
He's at his best running the floor, finishing at the rim, putting back misses and blocking shots—areas of the game that don't require a great deal of skill or precision. Given the natural foundation he's working with and the room he has to grow, Diallo offers obvious two-way potential.
"We feel like we've been able to sign a premier big man that has as much upside as any big we've recruited in recent memory," coach Bill Self said of Diallo, via Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. "He'll bring a toughness and aggressiveness to our program."
From athleticism to his energy, length (7'4" wingspan) and instincts, Diallo excels in areas of the game you just can't teach. He becomes a legitimate top-10 option if he shows encouraging promise with his touch and post moves.
For what it's worth, Diallo has yet to be cleared by the NCAA. His high school program remains under evaluation to determine if it meets academics requirements. But we're going to assume he'll eventually get the green light to start what should be a quick one-year career at Kansas.
5. Jaylen Brown, California, 6'7", SF
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Wired with smooth athleticism and a refined offensive attack that shouldn't be tough to sell, Jaylen Brown already looks the part of an NBA wing.
From a physical perspective, his 6'7", 222-pound frame will be an immediate handful for college forwards.
ESPN recruiting analyst Adam Finkelstein compared him to Bulls star Jimmy Butler, a comparison I happen to agree with.
Brown is at his best attacking the rim, whether it's off his strong first step or in transition. He does a nice job of playing through contact and even initiating it to separate.
But he's also flashed the ability to stop and pop and create one-on-one against a set half-court defense.
Still, most of his highlights this year will likely come in the open floor, where he combines speed, agility and power.
Brown ultimately projects as your classic two-way wing, a player identity that seems to be rising in value in today's NBA.
He'll start his freshman season viewed as a potential top-five candidate in 2016.
4. Jamal Murray, Kentucky, 6'5", PG/SG
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Having recently put on a show in the Pan American Games after winning MVP of April's Nike Hoop Summit, Jamal Murray just might be the hottest 2016 NBA prospect.
Even with Tyler Ulis returning to Kentucky's backcourt, Murray should receive his fair share of touches and playmaking opportunities.
He's a terrific scorer who can convert from all three levels, with the ability to get to the rack off hesitation, separate into mid-range jumpers and connect from behind the arc.
And though not necessarily known for his distributing, Murray averaged nine assists per game in high school, according to his former coach, Larry Blunt. He's a high-IQ guard with a handle who can create scoring chances against a set defense.
Murray doesn't jump out of the gym, but between his 6'5" size, exceptional ball skills, intangibles and track record, scouts shouldn't dock him too much for average athleticism and explosiveness.
From high school and showcase events to international play, Murray has succeeded against all different levels of competition. He won't need more than a year to sell the NBA—if he hasn't already.
3. Brandon Ingram, Duke, 6'8", SF
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Brandon Ingram's face-up attack and versatility for a 6'9" wing scream NBA potential.
He has guard skills with power forward height and a 7'3" wingspan—a combination that spells M-I-S-M-A-T-C-H. Ingram can really handle the ball, as well as separate into pull-up or step-back jumpers and sink them over his man.
One can really sense Ingram knows what he's doing, both in terms of shot selection and execution. Ingram looks polished, from his footwork and shot-making ability to his overall feel for the game.
His wildly skinny 196-pound frame will be a talking point throughout the season, but Ingram doesn't turn 18 years old until September.
Outside of Ben Simmons and Skal Labissiere, nobody's ceiling is higher. As they always do, general managers should be willing to chase the upside and wait on his body to fill out and develop.
2. Skal Labissiere, Kentucky, 7'0", PF/C
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Skal Labissiere could ultimately offer more upside than any prospect in the projected 2016 draft field.
He won't be at Kentucky very long. Labissiere told me back in April he'll "definitely" be working toward a one-and-done jump to the NBA.
At 7'0", Labissiere is a fluid athlete with an impressive repertoire of moves and shots around the key. He's developed soft touch at the elbows and in the mid-range, where he can face up and shoot or shake and bake into fallaway jumpers.
And though he doesn't quite have the strength to bang just yet, Labissiere has flashed a comfortable over-the-shoulder jump hook in the paint.
His bounce and activity also translate to rim protection and shot-blocking.
Between his defensive upside and inside-out versatility, Labisierre has the chance to emerge into a versatile two-way frontcourt weapon. He'll have a real chance at following Karl-Anthony Towns and going No. 1 overall next June.
1. Ben Simmons, LSU, 6'9", SF/PF
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The hype has been following Ben Simmons for a couple of years now. Fresh off back-to-back MVPs of the Dick's Sporting Goods High School Nationals and 2015 Gatorade Player of the Year honors, there is a good chance Simmons enters college No. 1 on the majority of NBA draft boards.
Unusual versatility sets him apart—at 6'9", Simmons blends power forward size, point guard skills and above-the-rim athleticism.
He's sensational with the ball, where he can operate over the defense and set the table for teammates off the dribble. Simmons' passing ability should ultimately become his signature and most-mentioned attribute by scouts.
As a scorer, he's still a work in progress on the perimeter, but he's phenomenal in the open floor—thanks to a terrific handle and agility—and very adept around the key. Simmons routinely makes tough runners, layups and finishes.
His strength and quickness for a big also bode well for his defensive potential.
We could be talking about one of the most unique players in the game by the time he's peaked as an NBA pro. Simmons should be locked into the top-three overall conversation from October all the way to June.
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