Predicting Men's 2025-26 CBB Teams Who Could Crash and Burn to Miss March Madness
Selection Sunday for the 2026 men's NCAA tournament is less than four weeks away, but that is still plenty of time for teams to play their way out of the conversation.
At this time last year, we had West Virginia projected for a No. 9 seed, Nebraska as a No. 10 seed, and both Ohio State and Wake Forest sneaking in as No. 11 seeds. They all missed the dance.
Or two years ago? When championship week was jam-packed with bid thieves and both play-in games ended up as No. 10 seeds? That was when Oklahoma went from a projected No. 6 seed in mid-February to missing the dance altogether.
Don't go counting those chickens until they hatch, is the moral of the story here.
Every team on this list is projected to make the dance in the latest Bracket Matrix refresh, but has a remaining schedule and/or a recent "eye test" status that suggests things could unravel in a hurry.
All resume data is current through the start of play on Tuesday, but any relevant Tuesday night results will be factored into the analysis.
Clemson Tigers
1 of 8
Resume: 20-6, NET: 31, RES: 28.3, QUAL: 28.7
Remaining Games: at Wake Forest, vs. Florida State, vs. Louisville, at North Carolina, vs. Georgia Tech
Bracket Matrix: No. 7 Seed (appears in all 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
Clemson is 20-6 overall as well as 10-3 in an ACC that is decidedly deeper than last year. While conference record does not matter as a standalone data point—especially in the ACC, where Clemson has its double-dips against Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech without playing a single game against Virginia—it does speak volumes about this team's ability to consistently beat respectable competition.
So, too, does the Tigers' 4-4 record against Quad 1 and their 10-6 record against Quads 1 and 2. Recent history suggests that it is a fantastic place to be. Over the past four seasons, there have been 121 teams with at least 10 Q1/Q2 wins and fewer than 13 total losses. They all made the NCAA tournament.
Case for Blowing It
Clemson is the highest-seeded team (No. 29 overall) from our latest bracket projection that doesn't quite feel like a lock, so we might as well start there with this list of teams who could blow it.
Simply put, it's because of the Tigers' lack of truly noteworthy victories.
Home wins over Miami and SMU, road wins over Syracuse, California, and Stanford, and neutral wins over Georgia, Cincinnati, and West Virginia are all well and good. And if they go even 2-3 down the stretch to enter the ACC tournament at 22-9 overall and roughly 10-9 vs. Q1/Q2, they're probably going to get in with some room to spare.
However, if they lose the UNC, Louisville and Wake Forest games while also adding a home loss to either Florida State or Georgia Tech to a resume that already contains a home loss to Virginia Tech and a road loss to Georgetown, the presently more-than-suitable metrics are going to slip enough for the selection committee to start really asking if the best wins are impressive enough. And they might not be.
San Diego State Aztecs
2 of 8
Resume: 18-7, NET: 41, RES: 44.7, QUAL: 42.3
Remaining Games: at Colorado State, vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, at Boise State, vs. UNLV
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 Seed (appears in 70 of 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
The case for San Diego State is mostly rooted in arguments against everyone else on the bubble.
The Aztecs have only one Quad 1 win, and that road victory over Nevada isn't worth much. They also suffered a pretty bad loss early in the year at home against Troy. That's a Quad 3 result, which is closer to Quad 4 than it is to Quad 2. Tuesday night's loss to Grand Canyon certainly wasn't great, either.
But they're top 50 across all metrics, have a winning record against Quads 1 and 2, and are 11-7 against the top three Quads. We rarely talk about Q2 and Q3 results because they aren't individually as impactful as Q1 wins or Q4 losses, but that's a solid stockpile when you consider Indiana is 4-9 against Q1/Q2 while Texas is sub-.500 against the top three Quads.
Case for Blowing It
For starters, SDSU would barely be blowing it. Most bracketologists currently have the Aztecs projected for a First Four game in Dayton, or out altogether. This means they could keep the status quo and miss out just because of bid thieves in conference tournaments or other bubble teams playing better down the stretch.
But that's a rough remaining schedule.
Not so much the Quad 3 home game against UNLV, but vs. Utah State, at New Mexico, and at Boise State are all Quad 1 challenges, while at Colorado State is a high Quad 2 game.
That absolutely could be good news for a team lacking marquee wins, but they do need to actually do something with those opportunities. A 4-1 finish maybe does the trick. But if they go 3-2 with the losses coming to USU and UNM, that's going to be a problem.
[It's worth noting that New Mexico is in almost the exact same boat, both Mountain West teams smack dab on the bubble with one ugly Quad 3 loss, no particularly stellar wins and similar metrics all around. We won't dedicate a full section to the Lobos, but the remaining head-to-head game between these two easily could be what determines who gets in and who gets left out.]
Missouri Tigers
3 of 8
Resume: 17-8, NET: 66, RES: 48.3, QUAL: 49.0
Remaining Games: vs. Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee, at Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, vs. Arkansas
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 Seed (appears in 67 of 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
Missouri's NET would be problematic if it mattered much to the selection committee. In the six metrics that are important, though, the Tigers' average rank is slightly better than 50th, which is classic bubble territory.
Missouri does have a bit of a short supply of wins worth mentioning, sitting at 6-8 against Q1/Q2. However, its three best wins—vs. Florida, at Kentucky, at Texas A&M—stand out from the pack on a bubble where teams like Georgia, Seton Hall, Ohio State, and all of the mid-majors are really in short supply.
Case for Blowing It
Missouri is projected to lose every game left on its schedule, but even a 2-4 finish would leave this team entering the SEC tournament possibly on the wrong side of the bubble.
In that scenario, the Tigers would be 19-12 overall with at least two great wins and no particularly horrible losses. (At Notre Dame, at Ole Miss, at LSU, vs. Georgia and vs. Texas certainly aren't great losses, though.)
But let's crunch the numbers.
The Tigers currently have a Wins Above Bubble score of 0.78, which is right where West Virginia ended last season, in controversially missing the dance. If they were to go 6-0 the rest of the way, they would gain an estimated 3.64 WAB and very likely earn something like a No. 7 seed.
But each loss suffered would subtract one full win from that estimate, meaning a 2-4 finish (regardless of which two games they win) would cause them to lose 0.36 WAB, dropping them to a mark of 0.42 heading into the SEC tournament, which decidedly isn't where you want to be.
They would at least have a pulse, though. Go 1-5 or lose all six, on the other hand, and they're toast.
SMU Mustangs
4 of 8
Resume: 18-8, NET: 36, RES: 36.7, QUAL: 38.0
Remaining Games: vs. Boston College, at California, at Stanford, vs. Miami (FL), at Florida State
Bracket Matrix: No. 9 Seed (appears in all 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
I mean, take a gander at those metrics. Pretty sweet, right? Top 40 across the board, which is always good enough for a spot in the field. Even two years ago, when there were bid thieves aplenty, the most controversial misses (Indiana State and Oklahoma) both ended up with metric averages just north of 40.
And those metrics look solid because of a 14-point home win over North Carolina, a 13-point win over Texas A&M on a neutral court, and just one loss outside of Quad 1 (LSU on a neutral court).
Case for Blowing It
Aside from the home game against Boston College, everything left on SMU's schedule falls right into that danger zone of hovering between the back end of Quad 1 and the top end of Quad 2. And that's the danger zone for a bubble team because those are losable, 50/50 games that are probably going to do slightly more harm as losses than they would do good as wins.
If they beat Boston College and then go 2-2 in those last four, they'll be in great shape. After Tuesday's home win over Louisville, SMU has a WAB of approximately 2.0, and a 3-2 finish is precisely what a bubble team should do against that schedule. The Mustangs would add an estimated 0.01 WAB for winning three of five.
Of course, that means a 1-4 finish would leave them at almost exactly 0.0 wins above bubble, and with possibly just two home wins over the projected field if Texas A&M drops out of the mix.
There almost always is one controversial ACC inclusion on Selection Sunday, but that's going to be a tough sell.
Speaking of the Aggies, though...
Texas A&M Aggies
5 of 8
Resume: 17-8, NET: 43, RES: 48.7, QUAL: 32.3
Remaining Games: vs. Ole Miss, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas, vs. Texas, vs. Kentucky, at LSU
Bracket Matrix: No. 9 Seed (appears in all 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
Three Quad 1A wins with an overall winning percentage of nearly .700 is quite the one-two punch. At any rate, no team with at least three Quad 1A wins and fewer than a dozen total losses has missed the dance in at least four years.
On top of that, none of the Aggies' losses was particularly reprehensible. The home games against Missouri and UCF were the only ones outside of Quad 1, and those both might be tournament teams when all is said and done.
Case for Blowing It
Those three Quad 1A wins? Road games against NET No. 32 Auburn, No. 37 Texas, and No. 39 Georgia, any combination of which could slip to Quad 1B if those teams fade at all down the stretch. (The cutoff for Quad 1A road games is the top 40 in the NET.)
And behind those three Quad 1A wins? Zero Quad 1B wins and zero wins against the top half of Quad 2. That's why Texas A&M has a Wins Above Bubble rating of just 0.77, ranking 45th nationally.
Already, the Aggies are probably closer to the bubble than most bracketologists seem to believe, and it wouldn't take much for them to fall by the wayside.
Per Torvik WAB estimates, even a 3-3 finish would cause their WAB to slip a little further to 0.65. And for five of those six remaining games, KenPom gives the Aggies a less than 57 percent chance of victory.
Could be quite the photo finish, but what else is new for Texas A&M?
Both of the WCC's Bubble Teams
6 of 8
Saint Mary's Gaels
Resume: 23-4, NET: 26, RES: 33.3, QUAL: 33.0
Remaining Games: at Seattle, at Washington State, vs. Santa Clara, vs. Gonzaga
Bracket Matrix: No. 10 Seed (appears in 112 of 113 projections)
Santa Clara Broncos
Resume: 22-6, NET: 42, RES: 42.7, QUAL: 41.7
Remaining Games: at San Francisco, at Saint Mary's, vs. Oregon State
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 Seed (appears in 93 of 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
Mostly, it's the combination of respectable metrics and the sheer volume of wins.
Everything points toward Saint Mary's being a top-36 team, while Santa Clara's overall average of metrics is just north of 40. And while that feels hollow against the backdrop of a combined record of 1-7 against Quad 1—the lone victory being Santa Clara's home win over Saint Mary's—each of these teams is sitting at 15-1 against Quads 2 and 3.
That's a slightly ridiculous stockpile of "mid-tier" wins. The only other team in the country with 15 such victories is Belmont, and the Bruins are 15-4, not 15-1.
Case for Blowing It
All eyes are on the upcoming head-to-head showdown as well as the massive season finale between Saint Mary's and Gonzaga.
Can both of these teams avoid the landmines before then, though?
The Gaels have one of the toughest four-game stretches imaginable in WCC play, while Santa Clara's game at San Francisco is no joke. Both teams have gone undefeated in all but the games against Gonzaga and each other, but that could change.
Even if they take care of business in the next seven days, though, if Saint Mary's beats Santa Clara before losing to Gonzaga, it may just about knock out the Broncos—if they're anywhere close to the bubble with that horrific Quad 4 loss to Loyola-Chicago, they're in deep trouble—while leaving the Gaels entering the WCC tournament without a single Quad 1 win.
Most likely, it's going to be a two-bid league, and the second bid may well be determined by a rubber match in the semifinals of the WCC tournament. But if you could tell me for certain that it won't be a two-bid league, Gonzaga being this conference's only representative feels a bit likelier than all three getting in.
Auburn Tigers
7 of 8
Resume: 14-11, NET: 32, RES: 35.7, QUAL: 30.7
Remaining Games: at Mississippi State, vs. Kentucky, at Oklahoma, vs. Ole Miss, vs. LSU, at Alabama
Bracket Matrix: No. 8 Seed (appears in 112 of 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
A lot of people are up in arms these days about Auburn still sitting somewhat comfortably in the projected field with 11 losses, but it seems a lot of people need to understand that facing the most difficult schedule in the country usually comes with some bumps and bruises—and a little more grace.
Yes, they've suffered 11 losses, but the Tigers are 5-11 in 16 games against the projected field, including a road win over Florida, a home win over Arkansas, and a neutral win over St. John's.
There's a reason they are still top 36 in all of the metrics, even after the recent four-game schneid. And if Auburn gets in with 15 losses, let's just say it wouldn't be the first time an SEC team did so. Texas did it last year, Florida in 2019, Alabama in 2018, and Vanderbilt in 2017.
Case for Blowing It
Although we just listed four SEC teams that made the dance with 15 losses, we would simultaneously advise Auburn not to test that fate with 15 of its own.
The Tigers are already five games below .500 against Quads 1 and 2, and if they go 3-3 from here, with the home game against Ole Miss as one of those wins, they would enter the SEC tournament at 8-14 against Quads 1 and 2.
Coincidentally, that's exactly where Texas was one year ago, and the Longhorns needed to add SEC tournament wins over NCAA tournament No. 10 seed Vanderbilt and No. 4 seed Texas A&M to ultimately punch their ticket.
Auburn probably needs either four more regular-season wins or a 3-3 finish paired with at least some sort of run in the SEC tournament. Because if the Tigers end up at 17-15, the strength of schedule won't be enough to save them.
Miami-Ohio RedHawks
8 of 8
Resume: 26-0, NET: 51, RES: 34.7, QUAL: 84.3
Remaining Games: vs. Bowling Green, at Eastern Michigan, at Western Michigan, vs. Toledo, at Ohio
Bracket Matrix: No. 11 Seed (appears in 110 of 113 projections)
Case for a Bid
See that zero in the loss column?
And the resume metrics average that beats what Iowa, Auburn, USC and Indiana are bringing to the table?
Need we say more?
You're more than welcome to assume that Miami-Ohio will get trounced in the first round of the dance. Certainly the predictive metrics will agree with you on that one. But unless/until the RedHawks lose at least one regular season game, there's no point in having this conversation.
Metrics be darned, the optics would keep the selection committee from telling a team that goes 31-0 during the regular season that it didn't do enough if it loses in its conference tournament.
Case for Blowing It
One loss is all it's going to take to start poking all of the holes in this resume.
No Quad 1 games and just one Quad 2 game is completely unheard of for a bubble team, as more than 65 percent of their wins came against either Quad 4 or non-D1 competition.
And if I've learned just one thing about the selection committee over the years, it's that they'll take a team that was victorious in one of its 10 tries against legitimate opponents instead of a team that never tried at all.
Miami-Ohio would still be in the conversation for an at-large bid if it enters the MAC tournament at 30-1. At any rate, it would have a WAB score of approximately 1.75 at that point, which would've been good enough for 36th-best in the country on Selection Sunday last year.
However, if they falter in the MAC tournament, the RedHawks are either going to become the first team with zero Quad 1 wins to receive an at-large bid or the team with the most wins to ever get left out of the NCAA tournament. And the latter seems more likely.
