NASCAR Fantasy 2015: Cheez-It 355 at The Glen Top Drivers and Sleeper Picks
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series travels to Watkins Glen, New York, this week for the Cheez-It 355 at The Glen.
This will be the series' second and final trip to a road course this season. One of the problems most fantasy players have is looking at the Sonoma results and considering those drivers for their contest. The two tracks are not the same, and it takes completely different skill sets to turn fast laps at each. Sonoma is a finesse track, while Watkins Glen is a much faster track.
DraftKings made some changes to their NASCAR contests before the race at Pocono. Each team is now required to select six drivers instead of five used in previous races. They also removed passing differential from the contest rules. The only effect the changes had on the race at Pocono is that it became more difficult to stack your contest with the best drivers.
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| Place Differential | +/- 1 Point for every position gained / lost |
| Fasted Laps | + ½ Point for each lap driver is the fastest |
| Laps Led | + ¼ Point for each lap driver leads |
There is one strategy to keep in mind when selecting your Watkins Glen team. Teams must select drivers who qualify in the middle of the pack with a chance to finish higher than where they start. Since there are only 90 laps in the race, there will only be 22.5 bonus points available for leading laps. Fantasy teams will score higher by trying to find drivers who earn bonus points for place differential rather than relying on laps-led bonus points.
Top Drivers
Kyle Busch, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota ($10,500)
Busch is on an incredible hot streak right now, and fantasy players cannot afford to keep him off their team. He came within one lap of fuel from winning his fourth consecutive race. Busch has been winning races in the Sprint Cup Series, Xfinity Series, Truck Series and he even won the pole at Pocono last week. Everything he touches has turned to gold.
Busch is not only a good choice because of his current streak but also because he is one of the best drivers at Watkins Glen. Busch has the second-best driver rating and the seventh-best average finish position at the track. Before last year’s accident with Martin Truex Jr., Busch had eight consecutive top-10 finishes at the road course. He is the best choice for your contest this week.
Fantasy teams will have to pay a premium price if they want to use Busch for their contest. He is the highest-priced driver in the field this week, but he could be worth every penny. If you decide to use him, you may need to select some of the drivers from the sleepers list for your contest.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 8.3 | 11.3 |
Busch will be one of the highest-owned drivers in the contest Sunday. If you select him you will have to beat your competition with your five remaining drivers. It would be too risky to leave him off your team because he is too good right now.
AJ Allmendinger, JTG Daugherty Racing, Chevy ($10,200)
Here is a name you do not see on the Top Drivers list every week. Allmendinger is the series' best road-course driver. He is much better at Watkins Glen than he is at Sonoma. Allmendinger must be on your team this week.
Allmendinger has the second-best average finish position and the third-best driver rating in the series at Watkins Glen. He has four consecutive top-10 finishes and has never finished worse than 13th at the track. Allmendinger is the safest pick in the field Sunday.
This is the only track where you will see Allmendinger priced over $10,000. Although he is the third-highest-priced driver in the contest this week, he still has great value. When fantasy teams pay this much for a driver, they must insure they are getting a good driver back for the money spent. Allmendinger is worth his price this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 1 | 2 | 4 | 11.8 | 7.8 |
Allmendinger had to win this race last year to make the Chase. He finds himself in the same position in 2015. JTG Daugherty gambles by letting their entire season ride on Allmendinger’s ability to win at Watkins Glen. It will be much easier for him to make it to Victory Lane without Marcos Ambrose in the race.
Brad Keselowski, Team Penske, Ford ($9,900)
Keselowski has consistently run well the last month. His only problems have come in the pits. The good news is that it is much easier to fix problems in the pits than it is fixing slow cars or drivers in a slump.
Keselowski has never won at Watkins Glen, but he finished three consecutive races in second place. It could have been four consecutive top-five finishes if his brakes did not go out last year. Fantasy teams know they are getting a driver who will finish up front when they select Keselowski for their contest.
Keselowski comes in at just under $10,000 this week. He is a great driver at Watkins Glen, but I think Kyle Busch and AJ Allmendinger hold more value at their price. Check the Happy Hour practice speeds, and if Keselowski is at the top of the chart, do not hesitate to use him for your contest.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 13.0 | 12.2 |
Keselowski had one of the most incredible races at Watkins Glen in 2011. He broke earlier in the season and was able to finish second in a race that requires more shifting than any other track on the schedule. Do not be surprised to see Keselowski in Victory Lane Sunday.
Carl Edwards, Joe Gibbs Racing, Toyota ($9,200)
Edwards is not the first name that comes to mind when people think of road-course racers. He usually struggled at these tracks until he spent some time practicing with Boris Said. Now Edwards is one of the series' best drivers.
Edwards has finished the last two races at Watkins Glen in the top five. What makes him such a great choice for DraftKings contests is his ability to make his way through the field and earn position-differential bonus points. Edwards usually finishes much higher than where he qualifies for the race.
Edwards is a bargain at $9,200. I predict Edwards will finish in the top five, and he is the seventh-highest-priced driver in the contest this week. Edwards is a good driver to build your team around this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 13.2 | 8.4 |
Edwards has been running well the last month after a poor start to the season. He has finished four consecutive races in the top 10. Edwards should add another top 10 to his 2015 resume Sunday.
Sleepers
Kyle Larson, Chip Ganassi Racing, Chevy ($7,500)
If you ask most NASCAR fans who has the best average-finishing position at Watkins Glen, it would take many guesses before the name Larson was picked. It is a small sample size, but numbers do not lie.
Last year Larson was one of the most impressive drivers in the field. He qualified 23rd and drove through his way to a fourth-place finish. Larson will have his hands full trying to finish as well as last season, but he should easily finish in the top 10 at Watkins Glen.
It is not often you can get the driver with a series-best average-finish position for $7,500. If Larson can repeat his performance from 2014, he will be the game's biggest bargain. Larson should be on every team at his price this week.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 23.0 | 4.0 |
A month ago it looked like Larson was stuck in a horrible slump. He had back-to-back quality races at Indianapolis and Pocono after finishing outside the top 30 at Daytona, Kentucky and New Hampshire. Larson is a driver who is starting to gain momentum as the race to the Chase heats up.
Tony Stewart, Stewart-Haas Racing, Chevy ($8,800)
Stewart should really be on the Top Drivers list, but he is in such a slump this year that it is hard to expect him to achieve any good results. If Smoke is ever going to get back to his old form, it will happen Sunday.
Stewart has a series-best driver rating and the third-best average finish position at Watkins Glen. Stewart knows his way to Victory Lane since he's been there five times in his career. He has only finished outside the top 10 in four of his 14 starts at the track.
It will be risky to pay $8,800 for Stewart this week. His stats at the track suggest he is worth every penny, but he has failed to live up to this season's expectations. Make sure you check his practice times before you pay top dollar for Smoke for this race.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 5 | 7 | 10 | 6.3 | 7.9 |
It would be good for the sport if Stewart could get back to running up front. The problem is the new aero-package does not suit his driving style. The good news is that drivers do not need to rely on down force as much on the road course, so Stewart should be right at home this week.
Clint Bowyer, Michael Waltrip Racing, Toyota ($8,300)
Bowyer is one of the best drivers at Sonoma, but he is not that bad at Watkins Glen either. Bowyer finished three consecutive races in the top 11 at Watkins Glen before a Jimmie Johnson spin caused him to finish 27th last season.
There are 11 drivers who are priced higher than Bowyer this week. He should be able to finish in the top 10 which would make his price a bargain. Bowyer is a driver you can use in your contest this week and know you did not have to pay an insane amount for, but he should provide a quality finish.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 18.0 | 15.8 |
Bowyer needs a win to make the Chase, and he has the ability to get to Victory Lane Sunday. Road-course races usually come down to fuel mileage, so look for the No. 15 team to take every chance possible to get Bowyer to the front.
Casey Mears, Germain Racing, Chevy ($6,700)
Mears is one of road-course racing's hidden gems. What makes Mears such a good DraftKings pick is his ability to finish much higher than where he starts the race. Mears has improved his finishing position in eight of his 11 races at Watkins Glen. He should earn many place-differential bonus points in your contest.
Mears is the perfect driver to round out your contest with this week. He is an absolute steal at $6,700. Mears is the 24th-highest-priced driver in the field this week. He has a good chance of finishing inside the top 15. That would make him a terrific value for the money.
| Wins | Top 5s | Top 10s | Avg Start | Avg Finish |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 21.0 | 18.7 |
Mears is unlikely to win the race or finish in the top five this week, but he is a safe pick for possibly the cheapest driver in your contest lineup. Mears has a streak of finishing seven consecutive races at Watkins Glen in the top 20.
DraftKings Picks for Watkins Glen
Driver 1: Kyle Busch ($10,500)
Driver 2: AJ Allmendinder ($10,200)
Driver 3: Clint Bowyer (($8,300)
Driver 4: Kyle Larson ($7,500)
Driver 5: Casey Mears ($6,500)
Driver 6: Justin Allgaier ($6,600)
Advanced stats courtesy Racing-Reference.Info.
If you need any further advice with your team, look for me on Twitter @MrFantasyNASCAR.
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