Fantasy Football 2015: Breaking Down Mock Draft, Bold Picks and Strategy

When the calendar turns to August, it can mean only one thing.

It's fantasy football drafting season!

To help you out in this, the most glorious of all the seasons, I've compiled my mock draft, along with some strategy notes and bold picks to consider. Spoiler alert: We're going to have a very long conversation about Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell.

Pick	Position	Player	Team
1	RB	Marshawn Lynch	Seattle Seahawks
2	RB	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings
3	RB	Eddie Lacy	Green Bay Packers
4	RB	Jamaal Charles	Kansas City Chiefs
5	RB	DeMarco Murray	Philadelphia Eagles
6	RB	Le'Veon Bell	Pittsburgh Steelers
7	RB	Matt Forte	Chicago Bears
8	RB	LeSean McCoy	Buffalo Bills
9	WR	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers
10	WR	Demaryius Thomas	Denver Broncos
Round 2
11	TE	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots
12	QB	Andrew Luck	Indianapolis Colts
13	QB	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay Packers
14	WR	Dez Bryant	Dallas Cowboys
15	WR	Jordy Nelson	Green Bay Packers
16	RB	C.J. Anderson	Denver Broncos
17	WR	Odell Beckham Jr.	New York Giants
18	WR	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons
19	WR	A.J. Green	Cincinnati Bengals
20	WR	Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions
Round 3
21	RB	Jeremy Hill	Cincinnati Bengals
22	RB	Alfred Morris	Washington
23	RB	Carlos Hyde	San Francisco 49ers
24	RB	Lamar Miller	Miami Dolphins
25	WR	Alshon Jeffery	Chicago Bears
26	WR	Randall Cobb	Green Bay Packers
27	WR	Mike Evans	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
28	WR	T.Y. Hilton	Indianapolis Colts
29	QB	Russell Wilson	Seattle Seahawks
30	RB	Mark Ingram	New Orleans Saints
Round 4
31	RB	Melvin Gordon	San Diego Chargers
32	RB	Joique Bell	Detroit Lions
33	TE	Jimmy Graham	Seattle Seahawks
34	QB	Peyton Manning	Denver Broncos
35	WR	Emmanuel Sanders	Denver Broncos
36	WR	Kelvin Benjamin	Carolina Panthers
37	WR	DeAndre Hopkins	Houston Texans
38	RB	Frank Gore	Indianapolis Colts
39	RB	Andre Ellington	Arizona Cardinals
40	QB	Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 5
41	TE	Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers
42	WR	DeSean Jackson	Washington
43	WR	Jeremy Maclin	Kansas City Chiefs
44	QB	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers
45	RB	Justin Forsett	Baltimore Ravens
46	RB	Jonathan Stewart	Carolina Panthers
47	RB	Giovani Bernard	Cincinnati Bengals
48	WR	Golden Tate	Detroit Lions
49	QB	Matt Ryan	Atlanta Falcons
50	WR	Brandin Cooks	New Orleans Saints
Round 6
51	WR	Jordan Matthews	Philadelphia Eagles
52	WR	Sammy Watkins	Buffalo Bills
53	WR	Brandon Marshall	New York Jets
54	WR	Mike Wallace	Minnesota Vikings
55	WR	Keenan Allen	San Diego Chargers
56	TE	Martellus Bennett	Chicago Bears
57	TE	Travis Kelce	Kansas City Chiefs
58	TE	Julius Thomas	Jacksonville Jaguars
59	QB	Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints
60	RB	Todd Gurley	St. Louis Rams
Round 7
61	RB	T.J. Yeldon	Jacksonville Jaguars
62	WR	Vincent Jackson	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
63	WR	Jarvis Landry	Miami Dolphins
64	WR	Brandon LaFell	New England Patriots
65	WR	Julian Edelman	New England Patriots
66	WR	Amari Cooper	Oakland Raiders
67	TE	Zach Ertz	Philadelphia Eagles
68	RB	C.J. Spiller	New Orleans Saints
69	WR	Victor Cruz	New York Giants
70	WR	Steve Smith	Baltimore Ravens
Round 8
71	WR	Torrey Smith	San Francisco 49ers
72	WR	Andre Johnson	Indianapolis Colts
73	WR	Martavis Bryant	Pittsburgh Steelers
74	TE	Jason Witten	Dallas Cowboys
75	RB	Tevin Coleman	Atlanta Falcons
76	RB	Latavius Murray	Oakland Raiders
77	QB	Matt Stafford	Detroit Lions
78	TE	Dwayne Allen	Indianapolis Colts
79	WR	Nelson Agholor	Philadelphia Eagles
80	RB	Rashad Jennings	New York Giants
Round 9
81	RB	Joseph Randle	Dallas Cowboys
82	TE	Jordan Cameron	Miami Dolphins
83	TE	Delanie Walker	Tennessee Titans
84	RB	Chris Ivory	New York Jets
85	QB	Tony Romo	Dallas Cowboys
86	WR	Michael Floyd	Arizona Cardinals
87	WR	Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons
88	WR	Anquan Boldin	San Francisco 49ers
89	TE	Owen Daniels	Denver Broncos
90	TE	Coby Fleener	Indianapolis Colts
Round 10
91	QB	Ryan Tannehill	Miami Dolphins
92	WR	Kevin White	Chicago Bears
93	WR	Eric Decker	New York Jets
94	RB	LeGarrette Blount	New England Patriots
95	RB	Isaiah Crowell	Cleveland Browns
96	RB	Ryan Mathews	Philadelphia Eagles
97	RB	Bishop Sankey	Tennessee Titans
98	QB	Eli Manning	New York Giants
99	RB	Alfred Blue	Houston Texans
100	D/ST	N/A	Seattle Seahawks

The first player I know folks are going to want to discuss is Le'Veon Bell. A lot of people think he should still be the top overall player selected, even with a two-game suspension. And yes, I've heard all of the arguments in favor of that strategy:

• For 14 weeks, he's going to be one of fantasy's most reliable backs.
• If you can't go 1-1 in the first two weeks without him, you just drafted poorly. 
• All you have to do is nab DeAngelo Williams as a handcuff and you are fine.

All right, let's break this down. Yes, Bell is probably fantasy's safest back at this point. He was awesome last year, and if he wasn't suspended for the first two games, he would absolutely be my recommendation for the No. 1 overall selection. 

But here's the thing. A season ago, Bell finished second among running backs in points scored in standard-scoring leagues behind DeMarco Murray, averaging 17.0 points per week, according to ESPN.com. Let's say he keeps up that pace again this year. That means by drafting him, you are essentially leaving 34 points on the bench in the first two weeks.

And do you know where Bell would have been on the running back rankings last year with 34 less points?

He would have finished fourth overall in the rankings. I have him sixth because I think Adrian Peterson will have a huge year, while Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles are incredibly consistent and Eddie Lacy closed last season scoring double-digit points in 12 of his last 13 games.

As for Murray, I know he'll receive less of a workload in Philadelphia with Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews getting touches, but he's also such a perfect fit for that offense that I think he'll still have a huge season with the Eagles. 

Simply put, I'd rather have the possibility of 16 games with any of those five players as opposed to the possibility of only 14 games with Bell. 

And I really hate the argument that if you can't go 1-1 without your first-round pick, you drafted poorly. So many things can conspire against you in the early weeks. Injuries. Tough matchups. Bad luck. Fantasy football isn't an exact science, but it is the art of limiting risk. And by drafting a player who you know will be on the bench for the first two weeks with a top-five pick, you are absolutely courting risk. 

Oh, but you'll just draft Williams to handcuff Bell, right? Well, if you think that is such an obvious strategy, so will everybody else in your league. The moment you take Bell, someone is already planning on taking Williams a few rounds earlier than they normally would, just to screw you over. So to get Williams, you are overpaying for a player who will have relevance for all of two weeks. And that's if you are even able to draft him without someone else nabbing him.

Are you starting to see how risky taking Bell with a top-five pick is?

Maybe I'm in the minority here, but I'm not willing to give up the 30 points I'd hopefully be getting, at the very least, with one of the first five players I'm projecting above Bell in my mock draft. Those 30 points in the first two weeks could be huge. Even if Bell ends up finishing above a couple of them in the final rankings, the total points Bell scores on the season may be far less important to me if I have to dig out of an 0-2 hole.

That said, after the first five picks, his upside is too great to pass up. I don't think you can pass on an elite option at running back to select Bell, but I think you can pass on the next tier of backs to get him. 

The news that Arian Foster will need surgery, per the Houston Chronicle's John McClain, should take him out of your early-round plans altogether. It's possible Foster could miss a huge chunk of the season, so at this point he's looking like a later-round stash, not a player you are taking early on. That makes Alfred Blue the man to own in Houston, though he's not a great option and the Texans will probably platoon several backs in the role. 

If you want to go bold, I love the selection of New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski in the second round. His injury history makes him somewhat of a risk and the looming Tom Brady suspension is a concern, but he's such a prolific player in the red zone—and has so much more value over the other tight ends compared to other positions—that he's a crafty pick in the second round. 

I would recommend having a list of wide receivers and quarterbacks you can get in the later rounds who will produce, however. If you are playing the Gronk strategy, your first three rounds should probably be RB-TE-RB. If you go that route, however, you have nailed the two weaker positions right off the bat while leaving the deeper positions for later in your draft. It's a strategy I endorse.

Of course, don't go into your draft with one plan that you aren't willing to stray from. You should always be flexible on draft day. If you take, say, LeSean McCoy and Gronk with your first two picks and for some reason Andrew Luck is sitting there waiting to be selected in the third round, by all means snatch him up. Drafting for value will always trump drafting for strategy. 

A few other players I think you can consider drafting a round or two earlier than expected. Let's call these the Bold Moves.

• Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz—Of all of the Eagles weapons, these two are the likeliest to fill the void left by Jeremy Maclin.
• Sam Bradford—Quarterbacks in Chip Kelly's system have had a lot of success. Bradford is better suited to this system than Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez.
• Carson Palmer—If he can stay healthy, he'll post big numbers. Keep in mind, neither Palmer nor Bradford should be drafted as starters in a 10-team league. But take them a round or two earlier than you might select a QB2 and you could end up pleasantly surprised.
• Brandin Cooks—With Jimmy Graham gone, he could absolutely blow up this year.
• Melvin Gordon—The explosive rookie is going to be the feature back in San Diego's solid offense. He could post huge numbers this year.
• Jarvis Landry—With Mike Wallace gone, he'll be the main man in this passing offense. With DeVante Parker and Jordan Cameron now in Miami, however, defenses won't be able to simply key on Landry.

As always, folks, good luck during draft season. May the fantasy points be with you.