The 8 Biggest MLB Dominoes Left to Fall Before 2026 Spring Training

There's less than two weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, but yet there's still quite a bit that needs to be resolved in preparation for the 2026 season.

If you go back to B/R's original top 25 free agent predictions from November, four players—Framber Valdez, Eugenio Suárez, Zac Gallen and Lucas Giolito—remain available in free agency. That quartet represents just a few of the things we're waiting on to happen before really diving deep into the 2026 campaign.

With that in mind, here are the eight biggest dominoes left to fall before 2026 Spring Training.

Are the Tigers Definitely Holding Onto Tarik Skubal?

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It already projects to be a crazy spring for Tarik Skubal, who is certainly going to be asked about his contract status ad nauseam, and will also take a detour to pitch for Team USA during March's World Baseball Classic.

Imagine if at some point during that the Tigers trade the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner prior to his contract year, feeling like they are unlikely to meet what will certainly be a record asking price from the Scott Boras client next winter.

Conventional wisdom would lead you to believe that if Skubal arrives in Lakeland for Spring Training with the Tigers, he's going to spend the 2026 season in Detroit. And that's probably the case.

However, the Milwaukee Brewers traded former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles on Feb. 1, 2024 ahead of his contract year, so there is some recent history for making this type of mega trade just before pitchers and catchers arrive.

Of course, this is extremely unlikely. There's been no evidence this offseason that a team has come close to prying Skubal away from the Tigers, and some of the usual suspects—like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets—might be more inclined to just bid on Skubal as a free agent next offseason, as opposed to giving up a ton for him right now only to be guaranteed one year of him atop their rotation.

Still, it's worth watching. It's probably the right move for Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris to hold onto Skubal and try to compete in 2026. But there's probably not going to be a chance to turn back midseason. It's extremely unlikely the Tigers are out of the playoff picture before the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and they aren't going to move him if they are contending. So it's speak now or forever hold your peace if you're the Tigers.

What Happens With Framber Valdez?

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As it turns out, purposely crossing up your catcher shortly before you hit the open market doesn't do a ton for your free-agent stock:

It's difficult, at this stage, to think that character concerns aren't part of the reason why Framber Valdez remains available in free agency. After all, this is someone that FanGraphs says is fifth among all starting pitchers in WAR since the start of the 2022 season, trailing only Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Tarik Skubal and Kevin Gausman.

Valdez, though, has some things working against him.

He's 32, so he's a bit older than some of the other arms that either are or were available this offseason, like Zac Gallen, Ranger Suárez, Michael King and Tatsuya Imai, whom the Astros seemingly replaced him with.

Additionally, Valdez declined a qualifying offer from the Astros, so any other team who signs him would need to surrender draft-pick compensation to land him.

The Chicago Cubs showed with Valdez's former teammate Alex Bregman that teams are willing to give up draft-pick compensation and shell out $150-plus million to a player entering his age-32 season. The difference is that Bregman has a sterling reputation around the sport, and there are clearly some concerns with Valdez.

Valdez could take a short-term deal and try to re-enter the market in a year or two when perhaps he's alleviated some of the personal concerns around himself, though he will be approaching his mid-30s at that point.

As B/R's Kerry Miller noted, the Orioles, Tigers and Giants all remain interesting possible landing spots for Valdez. But even with Spring Training approaching, there doesn't seem to be a clear front-runner for his services, which is hard to believe given the caliber of pitcher he has been.

Will Someone Meet the Cardinals' Asking Price for Brendan Donovan?

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In Chaim Bloom's first offseason as the president of baseball operations in St. Louis, the Cardinals have traded both RHP Sonny Gray and first baseman Willson Contreras in separate trades with the Red Sox.

The Cardinals did add both veteran reliever Ryne Stanek and oft-injured-but-talented starter Dustin May on one-year deals, but both of those moves feel like Bloom setting himself up to make a profit at the trade deadline if one or both bounces back in 2026.

It's clear that the Cardinals don't anticipate contending in 2026, and Bloom is going to try to rebuild the organization through player development, not that dissimilar to what he did during his time leading Boston's front office.

That makes it surprising that the Cardinals haven't traded Brendan Donovan. St. Louis doesn't need to trade Donovan, as 2026 will only be his first of three arbitration years. But Donovan is 29 years old and coming off of an All-Star season in which he posted a .775 OPS. His value probably isn't going to be higher than it is now.

But despite his ability to put the ball in play and defensive versatility—he's a natural second baseman, but has experience all over the diamond, including left field—Bloom hasn't found a taker who has met his asking price so far this winter.

Whether it comes before or during Spring Training, it will be interesting to see if one of the teams that's been linked to Donovan for much of the winter caves and offers St. Louis a deal to get them to part with the versatile veteran.

After losing Jorge Polanco in free agency, the Mariners could hand things over to former first-round pick Cole Young at second base, though that would leave their infield with quite a bit of uncertainty with Ben Williamson penciled in at the hot corner right now.

And given how this offseason has gone, Donovan to the Red Sox can't be ruled out. Are both Romy Gonzalez (second base) and Marcelo Mayer (third base) going to be Opening Day starters in the infield for a team with World Series aspirations? We'll see.

What Type of Deal Will Zac Gallen Sign?

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When the offseason began, B/R predicted that Zac Gallen would sign a two-year/$45 million deal with the Diamondbacks that allowed him to opt out after the 2026 season and return to free agency next offseason.

However, the Snakes instead brought back Merrill Kelly on a two-year, $40 million, meaning they are likely comfortable with Gallen walking in free agency, which will allow them to collect draft-pick compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer.

That QO being attached to Gallen has surely limited his free-agent market.

Between 2022 and 2023, Gallen posted a 3.04 ERA across 65 starts, posting consecutive top-five finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting. That version of Gallen would have gotten a bag in free agency, and teams wouldn't have worried about giving up draft-pick compensation to sign him.

Over the last two seasons, though, Gallen has a 4.31 ERA and 99 ERA+ (the league average ERA+ is 100). With that context, it's not particularly surprising that any of the suitors that have been mentioned with Gallen all offseason, such as the Cubs, haven't signed him. They're not going to want to give up draft-pick compensation for only a year or two guaranteed, but with how he's performed the last two seasons, is anyone going to want to guarantee Gallen more than a year or two?

Assuming a return to Arizona isn't in the cards, how large of a deal Gallen gets elsewhere will determine what type of draft compensation the DBacks get in return. As noted by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors, the Diamondbacks will receive a compensatory selection following the first round of the 2026 MLB Draft if Gallen signs for more than $50 million. If Gallen signs for less than $50 million, the Diamondbacks' comp pick will "come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round, which is usually somewhere in range of the 70th-75th overall selection."

Where Will Justin Verlander Continue His Quest for 300 Wins?

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The most recent pitcher to get to 300 career wins was Randy Johnson, who did so in June of 2009. It's long been assumed that The Big Unit will be the final pitcher to ever reach that mark, and that may prove to be the case.

But while unlikely, Justin Verlander probably has the best chance to become the 25th member of the 300 wins club, which makes following his next step interesting.

The three-time AL Cy Young Award winner will turn 43 in February, but you wouldn't have known it from watching him pitch during the second half of the 2025 season for the San Francisco Giants. After the All-Star Break, Verlander posted a 2.99 ERA across 14 starts. Not only was he serviceable, he was downright good.

The problem for Verlander is he only earned four wins in 29 starts in San Francisco last year. That puts him at 266 for his career, meaning he needs 34 more wins to get to 300. At this stage of his career, that may require him pitching well into his 40s in a Jamie Moyer-esque manner. Given the amount of times Verlander's career seemed to be on the ropes only for him to emerge on the other side, we won't rule that out.

Verlander's quest, though, does seemingly eliminate the possibility of him becoming a guy that signs in the middle of the season with a contender. He needs to start as many games as possible to maximize his chances to win games. And presumably, he'll want to do so for a team that he believes will give him the necessary run support to earn victories.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic did report in mid-January that the Orioles are interested in Verlander. The O's make sense for Verlander, and there's always going to be speculation about him returning to the Tigers or Astros, the two clubs he's spent the bulk of his career with.

Wherever Verlander lands, how he looked in the second half of last season reignited interest in following his attempt to get to 300 wins. It's unlikely, but not impossible.

What About the Other Available Veteran Starters?

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Verlander is hardly the only veteran arm still available in free agency. Here's a look at some of the other top names that remain unsigned.

Max Scherzer: Verlander's frienemy struggled in 19 starts for the Blue Jays last year, posting a 5.19 ERA. However, the three-time Cy Young Award winner turned back the clock a bit in the postseason, posting a 3.77 ERA over 14.1 playoff innings and nearly capturing his third World Series ring. The future Hall of Famer recently indicated to Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic that while he's ready to go now, he wouldn't be against waiting until after Opening Day to sign with the right club.

Chris Bassitt: Like Scherzer, Bassitt is a free agent in the twilight of his career that still has something to offer following a strong postseason for the Blue Jays. What's interesting in Bassitt's case is he was tremendous as a reliever in the playoffs, posting a 1.04 ERA across 8.2 postseason innings. Bassitt, who will turn 37 in February, presumably will still sign as a starter, but it's a feather in his cap that teams know he can pitch out of the bullpen in October.

Lucas Giolito: The former All-Star posted a 3.41 ERA across 145 innings for the Red Sox last year. The problem is that he wasn't available for the postseason as he dealt with a right elbow injury. That's a red flag considering he missed all of 2024 after undergoing an internal brace procedure on that same elbow. Still, he pitched really well last year, and the AL East rival Yankees might make sense.

Walker Buehler: Once one of baseball's elite pitchers, Buehler really hasn't been the same since undergoing his second major procedure on his right elbow. He was released after posting a 5.45 ERA across 112.1 innings for the Red Sox last year. He did pitch to a 0.66 ERA in three September starts after catching on with the Phillies, though his 3.72 FIP during that period suggests that wasn't sustainable. Also, he really isn't a fan of ABS.

Patrick Corbin: It's not that posting a 4.40 ERA is good, but Corbin pitching to that mark in 31 games for the Rangers last year actually was an improvement over the 5.62 ERA he posted for the Washington Nationals between 2020 and 2024. Also of note, Corbin has logged 155 or more innings in five consecutive seasons, which even if you aren't good, still has value when teams are trying to get through 162 games. Assuming the 36-year-old wants to keep pitching, he'll have the chance to do so somewhere this year.

Jordan Montgomery: So what turned out to be a two-year, $47.5 million contract with the Diamondbacks was a disaster. Montgomery missed all of 2025 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Whenever the 33-year-old lefty is healthy, he's worth a flier, because he was a really good pitcher for multiple teams before going to Phoenix.

Jose Quintana: Increasingly a good guess when you're stumped in Immaculate Grid, Quintana has pitched for eight teams during a 14-year career. Now 37, Quintana posted a 3.96 ERA over 24 starts for the Brewers last year. He can still be effective at the back-end of a rotation.

Who Wants an Accomplished Veteran Bat?

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Marcell Ozuna: Due to a few factors—being entrenched as a DH, second-half decline and off-the-field history—Ozuna is a difficult free agent to evaluate. Is it possible that hitting .219 with a .743 OPS after the All-Star Break was a sign that Ozuna, 35, is declining? Yes. At the same time, as recently as 2024, he homered 39 times, drove in 104 runs and posted a .925 OPS. Someone is going to take a chance on him.

Starling Marte: While he garners tremendous respect from his peers, Marte is 37 years old, almost exclusively a DH at this stage of his career and didn't hit lefties the way he once did a year ago. He'll play this year, but it's going to have to be for a team with a pretty specific need.

Paul Goldschmidt: There's still something intimidating when Goldschmidt steps into the box with his comically large bat and hovers over the strike zone. The former NL MVP is near the end at 38 years old, but he still posted a .981 OPS against left-handed pitching for the Yankees last year, so he'll play somewhere. What helps him is he's still serviceable at first base. A return to Arizona would be a great story.

Rhys Hoskins: After missing all of 2023 recovering from torn left ACL, Hoskins signed a two-year, $34 million deal with the Brewers. It's fair to say he underperformed during that deal, posting a .732 OPS over 221 games. Still, he has postseason experience, can provide right-handed pop and is a great leader. He would fit well for a young team like the Marlins.