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Ranking Astros SP Framber Valdez's Top 10 Landing Spots Amid Latest MLB Rumors
When Major League Baseball's 2025-26 offseason began, Houston southpaw Framber Valdez was easily one of the top 10 free agents on the open market.
But while the other nine members of that club have all signed new contracts, Valdez now stands alone as the one colossal domino yet to fall.
Most of the projections back in early November had the 32-year-old penciled in for either five or six years at around $30 million a pop. At this stage in the game, though, who still has that type of money sitting around?
Is Valdez going to need to settle for one of those "one year plus a player option" deals that Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery inked late in the 2023-24 offseason cycle? Or will his patience pay off on a nine-figure mega contract?
B/R's Zach Rymer ranked the top 10 landing spots for Valdez in mid-October, but things have changed a bit since then.
Time for a refresh.
10. Houston Astros
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Current Rotation: Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows
At the outset of the offseason, Framber Valdez returning to Houston felt about as likely as the Pittsburgh Pirates signing him to a $200M deal.
Even before the cross-up heard 'round the world, it didn't seem the Astros were too keen on bringing him back, if only because of the cost. They pre-emptively unloaded Kyle Tucker last winter, but decided to play out the string on Valdez's contract before wishing him luck out there.
But the longer a player remains available, the more likely it feels that he'll end up taking a short-term deal in a place where everybody already knows his name.
It still would be a tough sell as far as the money is concerned, though.
Houston did trade away Mauricio Dubón and non-tendered Ramón Urías, but turned around and spent those savings on Imai, ticking back above the luxury tax threshold by a few million dollars. And after landing slightly above that mark in each of the past two seasons, they have now earned "three-time offender" status and will be taxed at the highest rate.
If they were to give Valdez a $30M AAV, it would also increase their tax bill by approximately $17M. And if they didn't particularly want to re-sign him before, are they really going to set $17M ablaze to do it now?
It would make the rotation more formidable and more durable, but it simply might not make dollars and sense for them.
9. San Diego Padres
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Current Rotation: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Michael King, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears/Matt Waldron
To a considerable degree, San Diego's ability/willingness to sign Framber Valdez hinges upon whether Yu Darvish is actually the most selfless athlete ever.
Reports surfaced last week (and Darvish confirmed them on Twitter) that he is considering retirement and that he would void what's left on his contract rather than make the Padres continue paying him.
The decision still isn't final, but the fact that he is considering walking away from the $43M remaining on his deal is practically unheard of.
Both Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon agreed to restructure how their $245M contracts were paid out, but both still insisted on getting their money. Bobby Bonilla is still getting paid more than $1M every July and will be through 2035. But Darvish is contemplating gifting the Padres quite the chunk of change with which they could maybe sign Valdez.
The need is undeniable. Even if Pivetta has a repeat of last season, even if Musgrove comes back fully healthy from missing all of 2025 and even if King is healthy enough to make 30 or so starts, the Padres still have question marks at Nos. 4 and 5 in their rotation.
As is, they are on track to enter the year on the proverbial bubble, with minimal hope of finishing ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, but with reasonable wild card aspirations.
But what else is new? The Padres were the No. 5 seed in 2022 and 2025, the No. 4 seed in 2024 and missed the playoffs by a combined margin of six games in 2021 and 2023. They are forever teetering on the cut line and know as well as anyone what a difference it could make to add the right starting pitcher to the equation.
If nothing changes on the Darvish front, though, San Diego already has a projected tax payroll nearly $25M above the luxury tax threshold. Adding a $30M salary on top of that would mean paying roughly $17.5M more in luxury tax, and it was only two winters ago that they traded away Juan Soto to reset their tax clock.
8. Cleveland Guardians
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Current Rotation: Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo, Logan Allen/Parker Messick
One of these years, Cleveland is going to blow everyone's minds by signing a marquee free agent.
And though this probably isn't going to be the year it happens, why exactly did they restructure José Ramírez's contract over the weekend to pay him $6M less in 2026 while extending him through 2032?
At this point, their cash payroll ($83.71M) is laughably low, even by their standards. They are only marginally ahead of the White Sox ($81.02M) for stingiest in the majors, this coming after Cleveland spent almost $120M last season and more than $130M in 2024.
Could they actually be gearing up for a significant splash for Framber Valdez?
If so, we've got to believe it wouldn't be any sort of five-year, nine-figure deal. But maybe they could give him something like $35M for one year—which would still put them slightly below where they finished 2025—with a $25M player option for a second season.
We'll tell you this much: Of all the teams on this list, Cleveland needs Valdez the most. After Williams and Bibee, this rotation becomes suspect in a hurry. (And even Bibee struggled for much of last season before reeling it back in for the stretch run.) But put Valdez at No. 1 in this rotation and the Guardians instantly become the favorite to win the AL Central.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Current Rotation: Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Michael Soroka
The Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world with their $210M signing of Corbin Burnes one winter ago.
Could they pull off another stunner?
Most likely, if they're working on anything on the "free-agent starting pitcher" front, it's a new deal with Zac Gallen. He had a disappointing 2025 campaign, but they know better than anyone what he can bring to the table as a three-time recipient of NL Cy Young votes. Gallen is also presumably a good deal cheaper than Valdez, though refusing to budge on a lofty asking price could be what has kept him available for this long.
Like the Padres, though, the Diamondbacks surely need to do something more about their rotation if they intend to contend in 2026.
Bringing back Kelly was a nice acquisition. Taking a flyer on Soroka was far less of a remarkable transaction. And goodness knows the first two years of the Eduardo Rodriguez experience have not been what Arizona was hoping for.
The Snakes do already have a $225M projected tax payroll, which is already higher than where they have ever finished a season. If they added Valdez, they'd be making a luxury tax payment for the first time.
But why did they bring back Kelly, trade for Nolan Arenado and rebuff all offers for Ketel Marte if they're not serious about trying to win it all in the next two years?
It's a shame that Burnes won't be pitching for probably the entirety of 2026, but adding Valdez would make Arizona a legitimate threat this season and a serious World Series candidate with a theoretical full season of Burnes and Valdez in 2027.
All that said, Gallen does make way more sense as their primary target.
6. Detroit Tigers
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Current Rotation: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Drew Anderson, Reese Olson
Tarik Skubal's impending arbitration hearing is a rather large fly in the ointment here.
Whether the arbiter awards the two-time reigning AL Cy Young $19M or $32M determines whether Detroit has a $197M tax payroll or a $210M payroll.
Either way, it's an increase from last year's $188M mark, which was already a gigantic jump from $109.5M in 2024—when that whole "Josh Hader made more than Detroit's entire 26-man wild card roster" thing went viral. So to add another Framber Valdez contract to bring the payroll up into the $230M-$240M range would represent quite the philosophical shift to roster building.
But it's just for one year, right?
Skubal, Flaherty, Mize, Anderson, Kenley Jansen, Gleyber Torres and Jake Rogers will all be free agents next winter, removing nearly $100M from the ledger. And with the projected top four starters for the upcoming season possibly all exiting stage left next winter, wouldn't it be nice to at least have Valdez on the staff once top prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark make their way to the big leagues?
Let's not put the cart before the horse, though.
Detroit needs to decide whether it's invested in winning in 2026.
Because if it is, adding something promising to this rotation is a must.
Skubal carried an otherwise sorry rotation to the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, but he can't do it all. And while it doesn't have to be Valdez—Zac Gallen and Lucas Giolito are still out there as free agents, and there are always trade options—signing the former ace of the Astros would be the biggest splash.
But if they're not invested enough to sign Valdez, well then just trade Skubal away now and get that rebuild going while it's still manageable without a total tank job.
5. Los Angeles Angels
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Current Rotation: Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, Reid Detmers, Grayson Rodriguez, Alek Manoah/Jack Kochanowicz/Caden Dana
It has been about a month since the Los Angeles Angels restructured the final year of Anthony Rendon's contract. Instead of getting another $38M in 2026, Spotrac says he'll now be receiving $12.67M in each of 2028, 2029 and 2030—while still counting at $34M against the luxury tax, should they spend enough for that to come into play.
But with that month of newfound payroll flexibility, the Angels have done...pretty much not a darn thing.
They did trade away Brock Burke and Chris Clark for Josh Lowe, but that did nothing to change their payroll. Lowe is making $2.6M while Burke is at $2.325M and Clark is making peanuts at Double-A. Aside from that, though, just a few minor-league/international signings.
Well, could former division rival Framber Valdez be where they finally pounce?
The Halos sure could use the pitching. Detmers spent all of last season in a middle relief role, but he's probably their No. 3 starter. Rodriguez hasn't been able to stay healthy and missed all of 2025, but he's presumably penciled in at No. 4. But bring in Valdez as the ace and they could be a bit of a breakthrough team that finishes .500 or better for the first time in over a decade.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
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Current Rotation: Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos/Cody Ponce/Eric Lauer/Bowden Francis
Before he signed his outrageous $60M AAV contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kyle Tucker was reportedly offered a 10-year, $350M deal by the Toronto Blue Jays. And though we never did hear how high they were willing to go on a new deal with Bo Bichette, they presumably were also trying to re-up with their former shortstop before he signed with the Mets.
So, is there an outrageous amount of money burning a hole in their metaphorical pocket, or were they simply willing to stomach a colossal payroll if it meant signing Tucker?
If it's the former, then signing Framber Valdez is definitely on the table.
Doing so would push their tax payroll north of $340M and their tax bill up to about $64M. But after coming painstakingly close to winning it all this past October, they've made it clear that money is no object this offseason, already investing $337M in Cease, Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Kazuma Okamoto in soaring well past what they spent in 2025.
However, it may well have been a "Tucker or Bust" situation, reluctant to increase their financial commitment by this much for a pitcher that they frankly don't need.
Don't get me wrong, Valdez would be a most welcome boost to the overall strength of the team. By no means are we suggesting they'd struggle to find a spot for him in the rotation. He'd most likely start on Opening Day.
But it's a pretty solid rotation without him, to the point where the marginal utility of adding him arguably doesn't justify the cost of doing so.
We can't rule it out, though. Not with how aggressive the Blue Jays have been all winter.
3. New York Mets
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Current Rotation: Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga/Tylor Megill/Sean Manaea/Jonah Tong
As you can plainly see, the Mets aren't exactly hurting for options.
Any of those four candidates for the fifth spot in this rotation would be a coveted ace or No. 2 starter for a handful of rebuilding teams. And that acquisition of Freddy Peralta was positively massive for a Mets team that sure took its time doing anything to improve the starting rotation.
But it's weird that a team with a projected $386M tax payroll has a No. 2 starter with 48 innings of MLB experience, and a No. 4 starter who was a closer 15 months ago, right?
If they did sign Valdez at an AAV of $30M, it would push their tax payroll to $416M—otherwise read as slightly more than the Dodgers' $412M mark. And the tax payment they would make on that $416M payroll would be around $165M, for an all-in figure of over $580M.
Two thoughts on that front.
No. 1: There's plenty of time to chop down that gargantuan price tag a bit. If they could somehow unload both Senga and Manaea—who become even more expendable if you add Valdez to the equation—without retaining any money, that would bring that $580M figure down to just a hair over $500M. Still a preposterous sum, but wild to think they could save about $16M by replacing Senga and Manaea with Valdez.
No. 2: Does Steve Cohen even care where the total bill lands? The Mets have paid either the highest or second-highest bill in each of the past four seasons, going north of $435M in each of the past three. And the Dodgers demonstrated last year what a $170M tax payment can get you.
As things stand today, the Mets aren't even the betting favorite to win the NL East, basically in a three-team heat with Philadelphia and Atlanta. Cut a huge check to Valdez, though, and that should change. Moreover, it would considerably improve New York's odds of ousting the Dodgers in the NLCS.
Worth it if they can afford it.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Current Rotation: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Tyler Mahle, Adrian Houser, Landen Roupp
San Francisco entered the offseason with two sure things in its rotation: Webb and Ray.
The Giants have since added Mahle and Houser, though calling either one a "sure thing" would be a bit generous. Mahle has logged a total of just 125 innings pitched over the past three seasons due to injuries. And though Houser had a dominant stretch of two months with the White Sox last season, he has a 4.32 ERA dating back to the beginning of 2022.
Either one could be solid, but they both signed for a lower AAV than Dustin May. Just saying.
Swinging big for Framber Valdez could be what gets the Giants out of .500 purgatory.
At any rate, putting his ground ball-inducing pitching arsenal in Oracle Park would almost be a cheat code.
Among pitchers who have made at least 60 starts since the beginning of 2018, only Webb has a lower rate of home runs allowed per nine innings pitched (0.63) than Valdez (0.72). And Webb's home/road splits there are 0.77 on the road and 0.49 at Oracle Park.
San Francisco is already looking at a projected tax payroll of $236M. Signing Valdez would push them to about $22M above the luxury tax threshold, which would mean a roughly $5M tax payment.
With both Ray and Mahle slated for free agency next winter, though, signing Valdez to a multi-year deal would significantly improve their 2026 odds while simultaneously setting the rotation up for success for 2027 and beyond.
And if they can't stomach an occasional small tax bill, why did they trade for Rafael Devers' massive contract last summer?
1. Baltimore Orioles
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Current Rotation: Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer
Baltimore's starting rotation is...fine.
Though they traded away Grayson Rodriguez (after he missed the entire 2025 campaign), the Orioles added Baz via trade, re-signed Eflin on a short-term deal and, unlike last season, should have all of Rogers, Bradish and Tyler Wells available on Opening Day instead of rehabbing injuries.
But in an AL East where the Yankees will eventually have Gerrit Cole, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, where the Red Sox have Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suárez and Sonny Gray and where the Blue Jays have Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber, rolling out either Bradish or Rogers on Opening Day feels a bit ominous.
They have been one of the top candidates to land Valdez since the offseason began, really emerging as one of the favorites during the Winter Meetings.
Can they seriously afford him, though?
After adding Pete Alonso and plenty of others, Baltimore's tax payroll is already just a shade under $200M. Signing Valdez would bring them up to around $230M. That's a pittance for some clubs, but the O's ended last season a bit below $180M—and that was already a massive increase after finishing 2024 at around $127M.
Counterpoint: Valdez could be the perfect final piece of this championship puzzle, and they are desperately trying to win one before the Gunnar Henderson-led nucleus reaches free agency and the O's have to go back to the drawing board.
If you're going to be all-in, be all-in and "Salt Bae" a little Old Bay on that contract after Valdez signs it.
