Ranking Astros SP Framber Valdez's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency
If MLB's upcoming free-agent market is well-stocked in any department, it's starting pitching. There will be a handful of top-of-the-rotation options, including Framber Valdez.
The 31-year-old lefty is set to hit the market on the heels of an excellent six-year run with the Houston Astros. He posted a 3.23 ERA across 154 appearances in the regular season, plus another 17 in the playoffs. By rWAR, the only lefty more valuable than Valdez in this span was Max Fried.
Valdez's primary appeal is how often he keeps out of danger by inducing ground balls. Since 2020, he ranks second behind only Logan Webb in both total ground balls and ground ball outs.
Because he is a seasonal age older than Fried was when he hit free agency, he likely doesn't have a shot at replicating his eight-year, $218 million contract with the New York Yankees. Yet Valdez should easily clear nine figures, with Spotrac estimating his market value at six years and about $200 million.
A return to the Astros probably isn't happening, as Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the expectation within the industry is they'll make Valdez a qualifying offer and then wait to collect a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
As for which teams could be a fit for Valdez on the open market, let's rank 10 based on how well they match with him based on their needs and financial outlook.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
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Projected SP Options: Ryne Nelson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Jarvis, Christian Mena
Last winter, the Diamondbacks made a major play to improve their rotation by signing Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million contract. They ultimately got what they want...just not how they wanted it.
Burnes only made 11 starts before he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, and Arizona's rotation as a whole improved from a 4.79 ERA in 2024 to a 4.29 ERA in 2025. Better, but still only 19th in the league.
With Burnes looking at a long recovery and Zac Gallen set to become a free agent in his own right, the D-backs are about to have a big hole to fill at the top of their rotation this winter. On paper, at least, Valdez is perhaps the best choice for it.
Yet given Arizona's infield was underwater with -6 Outs Above Average this year, Valdez isn't an ideal fit for them on the field. And with managing partner Ken Kendrick hinting at a payroll decrease, this may not be a practical financial fit, either.
9. Baltimore Orioles
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Projected SP Options: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Cade Povich
There's more than one reason why the Orioles fell short of expectations this year, but bad starting pitching didn't help.
O's starters ranked 24th with a 4.65 ERA, in part because they had a major problem with the long ball. They gave up 136 home runs, fourth-most of any rotation in the league.
Simply to this end, a ground-ball machine like Valdez ought to appeal to the Orioles. And general manager Mike Elias may be just the guy to sign him, as he came to Baltimore from Houston's front office and, let's face it, needs to do something to keep his seat from getting any hotter after back-to-back disappointing seasons.
This is another team with an iffy (i.e., -6 OAA) infield defense, though, and the Orioles also don't normally mess with nine-figure deals in free agency. And while owner David Rubenstein has talked a good game about sparing no expense, he's yet to put his money where his mouth is.
8. Texas Rangers
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Projected SP Options: Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker
It was primarily through the strength of their starting pitching that the Rangers mounted a late rally to make the playoffs this year. Ultimately, their starters led all of MLB with a 3.41 ERA.
That rally obviously fell short, however, and now they stand to have their rotation gutted by free agency. Merrill Kelly, Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray are all slated to hit the open market.
One bright side is all the payroll space that is about to come free, and it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if GM Chris Young used it to fill his rotation. To this end, Valdez is a familiar face who would work well in tandem with an infield that had 14 Outs Above Average this season.
Then again, there has also been talk of financial uncertainty in Arlington. Rather than a big signing, all the payroll space set to open up might simply result in a lower payroll in 2026.
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7. Boston Red Sox
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Projected SP Options: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito*, Kutter Crawford, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison
We've included Giolito here because his recent elbow injury could make him think twice about turning down his end of a $19 million mutual option for 2026.
Yet it's more likely he will turn it down and become a free agent, which would leave Boston with a hole to fill in its rotation after Crochet. He would need a proper No. 2 behind him, a role that neither Giolito nor Bello was perfectly suited for this season.
Because their infield ranked fourth from the bottom of MLB with -20 Outs Above Average, the Red Sox aren't an ideal match for Valdez's ground-ball style. But with chief baseball officer Craig Breslow committed to improving the defense, the Red Sox could add Valdez as part of a broader project.
The question here is whether starting pitching should be a priority worthy of a $200 million deal for Valdez. The Red Sox have plenty of incumbent arms, after all, whereas their lineup will look thin even if they bring back Alex Bregman.
6. San Diego Padres
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Projected SP Options: Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, JP Sears, Randy Vásquez
The Padres are suddenly in need of a manager after Mike Shildt shocked the baseball world by announcing his retirement on Monday. And before long, they'll also have two big holes to fill in their rotation.
Dylan Cease is going to be a free agent, and Michael King will be as well once he declines his $15 million mutual option. This is quite the problem, as the Padres can't really count on Darvish (who's old) and Musgrove (who'll be coming off Tommy John surgery) to provide strong support for Pivetta in 2026.
Valdez fits the bill much better in this regard, and one thing that might draw him to San Diego is Petco Park. It's more of a pitcher's park than many people probably realize.
The Padres don't have a great infield defense, though, and how much they're willing to spend to support their World Series dreams has been a question ever since Peter Seidler's passing. As things project now, they only have about $20 million in breathing room before having to worry about the 2026 luxury-tax threshold.
5. Detroit Tigers
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Projected SP Options: Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty*, Casey Mize, Reese Olson, Troy Melton, José Urquidy
Flaherty gets an asterisk because he might choose to decline his $20 million player option for 2025, though it's not a given after he pitched to a 4.64 ERA this year.
The more pressing matter is the future of Skubal, who is slated to hit free agency after 2026. It would be shocking if the Tigers traded him this winter, but equally shocking if they extended him. Even though they're implying they can do it, the price to make it happen may well eclipse $400 million.
The Tigers should start planning for life after Skubal, and signing Valdez would help. He used to play under A.J. Hinch in Houston, and one can imagine him being drawn to the cavernous dimensions of Comerica Park.
Yet even if it's easier to imagine than a $400 million deal for Skubal, the Tigers doing a $200 million deal with Valdez still feels akin to a long shot. The club just hasn't spent like that since Chris Ilitch inherited it from his late father, Mike Ilitch.
4. Chicago Cubs
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Projected SP Options: Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga*, Cade Horton, Colin Rea*, Ben Brown
The Cubs have some contract option decisions to make with those asterisks, with Rea's $6 million club option certainly resembling the easy one.
The more difficult call concerns Imanaga. The Cubs hold a three-year, $57 million club option, whereas he has a $15 million player option for 2026 if they decline the club option. Given he took a sizable step backward in 2025, the end result may well be him becoming a free agent.
Even if Imanaga does stick around, this rotation will be crying out for an upgrade after a year when it was generally solid, but mostly ace-less. Valdez would give them a dependable No. 1 starter, and he would surely love having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner backing him on the infield.
Yet even though the Cubs are one of baseball's top revenue juggernauts, they have recently tended to shy away from huge splashes in free agency. And if they're going to break the mold this winter, it may be to bring back Kyle Tucker.
3. New York Mets
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Projected SP Options: Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Clay Holmes, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Frankie Montas*
The Mets' starting pitching flat-lined in the second half of 2025, posting a 5.31 ERA that helped fuel one of the more stunning collapses in recent memory.
It's therefore not the best thing that the gang will all be back for 2026, though Montas is projected to miss the whole season after Tommy John surgery. The Mets can hope for positive regression from Manaea and Senga and further development on the parts of McLean, Tong and Sproat, but they would still be wise to seek upgrades.
Valdez is the best they can do in free agency, and there is some connective tissue between him and the Mets front office. President of baseball operations David Stearns worked for the Astros when they signed him in 2015.
Given Steve Cohen's spending habits, whether the Mets can afford Valdez is not the question. More pressing is how highly they'll value him, as they may gravitate more toward swing-and-miss types such as Dylan Cease or Japanese righty Tatsuya Imai.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Projected SP Options: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, Keaton Winn
The Giants only got a 4.10 ERA from their rotation this year, but their four most-used starters each posted an ERA in the 3.00s.
Webb, Ray and Roupp are slated to return in 2026, but not Justin Verlander. And while simply bringing him back for his age-43 season is one option, the Giants also have to consider bigger swings that would draw them closer to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
Signing Valdez would fit the bill, and there might not be a better fit for him on paper. Oracle Park is a dream park for pitchers, and Valdez would sign knowing he'd have Matt Chapman and Willy Adames behind him for the foreseeable future.
Moreover, the Giants somehow spent less in 2025 than they did in 2024 even though they absorbed Rafael Devers' $300 million contract in June. Whether ownership agrees is up to them, but you'd think this would make it easier to take a big swing on the winter market.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
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Projected SP Options: Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos, Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis
For as good as the Blue Jays were this year, at no point was their starting rotation a particularly notable strength. It finished with a 4.34 ERA to rank 20th in MLB.
Come the winter, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt will be free agents, and we're assuming Shane Bieber will be as well. After successfully making it back from Tommy John surgery in August, the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner will likely turn down his $16 million player option for 2026.
If so, it will be that much more likely Toronto will hit the market in search of starters. Valdez would be perfect for the team, as he could slot in between Gausman and Yesavage in 2026, and then take the former's place atop the rotation after his contract expires at the end of next season.
Of course, there is the question of whether the Blue Jays will prioritize re-signing Bo Bichette as a free agent. But they have gotten by just fine without him in the playoffs, and there have been some reports he isn't interested in staying in Toronto anyway.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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