Biggest Challenge for Each 2015 Heisman Candidate

A good indication of how big a deal the Heisman Trophy is: Contenders for the next year's award are often identified before the current statue finds its way into a trophy case.

It wasn't long after Oregon's Marcus Mariota was done posing for pictures with his hardware in December that we were already discussing potential candidates for the 2015 Heisman, and that far-too-premature list has added and lost names throughout the offseason.

We're now less than 30 days from the start of the 2015 campaign, and we've identified a solid list of early Heisman picks. And we also have reasons to believe each won't win the award given annually to college football's top player.

Using the latest Heisman odds from OddsShark.com, we're taking a look at the most likely pitfalls that could derail an award campaign for the top candidates. Check them out, then tell us what you think in the comments section.

J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

The challenge: Winning back the starting job

It only took a few weeks last fall for J.T. Barrett to go from an uncertain first-time starter to potentially the next redshirt freshman to win the Heisman. Had he not suffered a season-ending injury in the Michigan game, who knows where he would have finished in the voting?

Now Barrett isn't even certain to play in 2015, since he's trying to come back from a broken ankle while also battling with Cardale Jones for his old job.

Barrett's playing prospects are better than they were a few weeks ago thanks to Braxton Miller—the QB Barrett replaced last season—moving from quarterback to receiver, but Jones was so good in relief of him during the postseason that there's no guarantee Barrett can get back on the field on a full-time basis.

The possibility exists that Ohio State could play both quarterbacks, starting one and having a package of plays for the other, but sharing snaps is rarely a scenario that a Heisman winner is involved in.

Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

The challenge: Trying to do too much

At 9-2, Trevone Boykin is the favorite for the Heisman in the eyes of oddsmakers, surpassing Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott during the summer. After leading TCU to a breakout season in 2014, Boykin has been picked by Big 12 media as the Preseason Offensive Player of the Year, and his team opens second in the Amway Coaches Poll.

Everything is trending in Boykin's favor right now, and if he puts up numbers like last season—when he had 4,608 yards of total offense and accounted for 42 touchdowns—it will be hard for anyone to slow his momentum.

All that might be able to stop Boykin is himself, particularly if he harms his own resume by attempting to do too much to enhance the Horned Frogs' playoff hopes.

Just look at the post-Heisman seasons of the last two award winners for evidence of what overplaying can lead to. In 2013, Johnny Manziel had better numbers than he did during his Heisman-winning season but also more mistakes, throwing 13 interceptions compared to nine the year before. It was even more pronounced for Jameis Winston a year after winning the Heisman, as he was picked off nearly twice as much and threw 15 fewer touchdowns.

Boykin will be judged by what his team does as well as how he compares to 2014 just as much as he is compared to other 2015 Heisman candidates.

Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

Nell Redmond/Associated Press

The challenge: Avoiding Georgia's past

Georgia's 2015 football team is somewhat like a Broadway play that went dark for a few months to update some stage sets and beef up the script. But the role of Todd Gurley is being played this time by Nick Chubb, an understudy who more than adequately filled in for Gurley during much of the 2014 season.

This time last year, Gurley was the one getting plenty of Heisman hype—an early favorite who seemed like a sure thing as long as he didn't get hurt, the Bulldogs didn't misuse him or the team didn't suffer the kind of frustrating losses that have been all too common in recent years.

Georgia utilized him masterfully for the most part, but the odd choice to go away from him late against South Carolina cost the Bulldogs an important victory, and Gurley was on the shelf a few weeks later because of an NCAA suspension for autograph compensation. He returned from that absence only to suffer a season-ending knee injury.

Chubb made Georgia fans mostly forget Gurley's departure thanks to eight 100-yard games in as many starts, yet nothing he did could prevent the stunning blowout loss to Florida or the late collapse to Georgia Tech. Now in his sophomore year, Chubb is the guy, yet he faces the same kind of roadblocks—health, play-calling, team performance—that got in Gurley's way.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

The challenge: Beating out own teammates

The official Heisman definition on its website says the award is given to "the outstanding college football player" but doesn't go into specifics about what that means. The general consensus is that it means the best player in the country and no doubt the one whose performance is most essential to his team's play.

With that being said, Ezekiel Elliott's biggest Heisman hurdle might be how voters interpret the award criteria. Since Ohio State's roster is so overloaded with star players, he could have another huge year like in 2014 but still not be considered the best player on his own team.

Three of the top-10 early Heisman contenders are on the Buckeyes, including quarterbacks J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones. Braxton Miller is also warranting preseason consideration, though less so now that he's been moved to receiver. The curiosity as to how OSU would handle its unique three-man QB battle dominated offseason storylines, almost to the point that Elliott became a forgotten face despite being a huge part of last winter's dominant run through the postseason.

"It is very reasonable to think that the person that could ruin Elliott's Heisman hopes plays on his own team," Harry Lyles Jr. of SB Nation's Land Grant Holy Land blog wrote.

There's precedent for votes being split by teammates. Heisman-winner Matt Leinart had a better year in 2005 than when he won in 2004, but because USC teammate Reggie Bush was so explosive that season, Leinart finished a distant third to Bush in the balloting.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The challenge: Overloaded boxes

Running backs are at a decided disadvantage in the Heisman race in today's college atmosphere, as the position has only won the award once in the past decade and twice this century. And those winners—Alabama's Mark Ingram in 2009 and USC's Reggie Bush in 2005—had big seasons for teams that would play for national titles.

They also didn't have to do it all themselves, which very well may be what Leonard Fournette has to do this season at LSU.

Fournette's impressive freshman performance in 2014 is a big reason the Tigers, despite going 8-5 last season, were picked by SEC media to finish third in the ultra-tough West Division and are ranked 13th in the preseason Amway Coaches Poll. The same quarterback issues that plagued LSU a year ago remain, and it's very likely Fournette may have to carry his team.

Or try to, at least.

LSU has talented wide receivers but no one to get the ball to them, so opponents are likely to put as many defenders up at the line of scrimmage as possible to stifle Fournette. If the sophomore sensation can run around (or through) those stacked boxes, he'll greatly enhance his Heisman chances, but that's a lot to expect.

Until either Brandon Harris or Anthony Jennings prove they can make the Tigers balanced on offense, this is what Fournette is facing.

Jeremy Johnson, QB, Auburn

Michael Chang/Getty Images

The challenge: Living up to the hype

Auburn is going all-in on Jeremy Johnson, retooling its offense to maximize his talents and making him the face of the team. The Tigers are doing this mostly on faith, since the junior enters his first season as a starter having played almost entirely in garbage time aside from a pair of spot starts for Nick Marshall.

Coach Gus Malzahn referred to Johnson as one of his team's "leaders" when bringing him to last month's SEC media days, per Bleacher Report's Justin Ferguson.

"His coaches and his teammates have a lot of confidence in him, and he's earned that," Malzahn said.

What Malzahn and the Tigers see in Johnson is likely similar to the scenarios for recent unproven-players-turned-Heisman-winners Johnny Manziel and Jameis Winston. Texas A&M and Florida State were sold on those players, and we could only go off what they said before seeing actual results.

It's the same with Johnson.

Manziel and Winston delivered. Can Johnson? And how much will it take to actually meet those expectations, the kind that warrant Heisman hype?

Johnson has said his goal is to throw for more than 3,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000, which was last done by Manziel. Producing those numbers would make it very likely he stays in the Heisman hunt, but will just having a good year seem like a disappointment?

Cardale Jones, QB, Ohio State

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The challenge: Playing a full season

Before December, Cardale Jones was known far more for an ill-conceived tweet than his football play. Then he stepped into the Ohio State starting quarterback job and played like a seasoned veteran, guiding the Buckeyes to convincing victories over Wisconsin, Alabama and Oregon en route to a national title.

Jones' play in that brief stretch was so electric there was genuine speculation that he could ride the tide straight into the NFL draft. He was a redshirt sophomore and thus eligible to turn pro, though he ultimately decided to return for this season despite knowing he had no assurance of being the Buckeyes starter.

His chances of holding onto the job are better now that Braxton Miller is out of the quarterback competition, but he still has to beat out J.T. Barrett. And then he must play well enough to hold onto the gig, or at least to get the bulk of the snaps.

Going with a two-quarterback rotation might end up being the best option for OSU to defend its title, but it won't help either player win a Heisman.

Cody Kessler, QB, USC

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The challenge: The high bar set by predecessors

No matter how many times Cody Kessler is described as underrated, the fact remains he is playing one of the most recognizable positions in college football. Since 2000, USC quarterbacks have won the Heisman twice—and finished in the top six three other times—and have been first-round NFL draft picks on three occasions.

Kessler isn't just competing against top players from across the country, he's also taking on past Trojans passers.

Matt Barkley, Matt Leinart, Carson Palmer and Mark Sanchez all excelled for USC, and while they didn't all pilot a championship-caliber team, they all had big years and upheld the proud tradition of that position.

Kessler is coming off one of the best years ever for a USC quarterback, setting school records for passing efficiency and completion percentage while tying Barkley's single-season touchdown mark and nearly topping the yardage record that Palmer set in 2002. However, since USC had a few puzzling losses and didn't contend for the playoffs, Kessler's feats somehow went relatively unnoticed.

The Trojans are picked to win the Pac-12 this year and will start 10th in the preseason Amway Coaches Poll. The pressure to meet those expectations is just part of what Kessler has to deal with in his Heisman quest.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The challenge: Not enough wins

When Mississippi State was rolling to a 9-0 start and holding down the No. 1 spot in the polls, Dak Prescott had the kind of momentum that made a Heisman—or at least an invite to its ceremony—seem very likely. But once the Bulldogs started losing, most of Prescott's association with the award went away.

When the final votes were tabulated, Prescott ended up in eighth place. He was picked first on just two of 928 ballots, despite nearing the end of a season in which he had 4,435 yards of total offense and accounted for 42 touchdowns.

Mississippi State now heads into a very uncertain year, picked to finish last in the SEC West and unranked to start the season. The Bulldogs didn't have much preseason hype last August, but they also had a far more experienced team than the one they'll field this fall with only nine returning starters. 

Prescott figures to have another big year, barring injury, but a lack of team success will prevent that from registering with Heisman voters. Baylor's Robert Griffin III is the only Heisman winner in recent years to be on a team that wasn't a title contender down the stretch, but he's the exception that proves the rule about the correlation between individual award consideration and team performance.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Rainier Ehrhardt/Associated Press

The challenge: Staying on the field

As a true freshman last season, Deshaun Watson not only looked like he could be the best quarterback in Clemson history but also the school's best chance ever to win a Heisman. When he was actually able to play, that is.

Watson's phenomenal 2014 season was full of injury-related stops and starts. A broken hand shelved him for a month, then two separate knee injuries knocked him out of games. The second was a torn ACL that he played on to help Clemson beat rival South Carolina but which required surgery and kept him from playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl.

It also kept Watson from participating in spring practice as he worked to quickly rehabilitate and get back to full strength for 2015. Watson is fully active in training camp now and will be Clemson's starter, but how long that remains depends on if he can remain healthy.

That might mean altering how he operates, coach Dabo Swinney said, per Gino Bottero of TheScore.com.

"Hopefully he can be a little smarter," Swinney said. "One of the best parts of his game is, he's a creator. It's not necessarily a play that we call for him to run, but he becomes a scrambler.

"I think there are times he has to be smart and not necessarily take that hit—you don't have to prove anything to anybody."

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.