NFL Weekly Picks: Week One

The NFL season finally brought life and happiness back to the hearts of football fanatics around the globe with it's opening kickoff of the season opener between Tennessee and Pittsburgh.

So, I am now returning with the one-and-only Mark Jones weekly picks! I finished last season with a fine record of 110-68-1 of straight-up picks, and I hope to do better than that this season using my new picking system.

Spread picks for betting are also included. My complex formula proved very accurate in the latter stages of the 2008-2009 season, and I have tinkered with it during the offseason to perfect a few problems.

So, without further ado, let me introduce the picks. Every NFL game recieves a prediction score and spread pick, as well as a paragraph or two of analysis. Also included in each week's edition are one to two "Upsets of the Week" and one "Lock of the Week". Let's get on with the projections!

Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons

The Dolphins will come in to the Georgia Dome with confidence that they can repeat as division champs, and should be ready to prove themselves in this match against another high-quality opponent.

However, home field advantage will pay off, and Michael Turner will show fantasy owners that he was the right choice. Atlanta wins 23-13, and gets off to a good start on their way to a strong 11 or more win season.

Dolphins 13, Falcons 23

Spread: Falcons (-4)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

This may not be a very high scoring affair for the Chiefs. First of all, your starting QB who you traded for over the summer is injured. Then, you have an excellent defense on the other side of the ball and a crowd against you.

On the other hand, though, although the Ravens may not put up blockbuster numbers either, it should be enough for an easy win.

Chiefs 6, Ravens 21

Spread: Close, but Ravens (-12.5)

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

In truth, this may be the best game at the 1:00 time slot.

The Eagles went to the NFC Championship and are also projected to be one of the league's best once again, but don't forget the Panthers went 12-4 last year, too.

Philly will have it's troubles with a loud Bank of America Stadium crowd, but in the end, the Panthers defense is too crumbly to hold together against playmakers such as Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and DeSean Jackson. However, expect a tight, exciting game here.

Eagles 24, Panthers 20

Spread: Close, but Eagles (-2.5)

Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Broncos will head into Cincinnati for a battle of two teams looking for recognition. Denver is trying to prove their horrific offseason wasn't as bad as some think, but Carson Palmer's debut is also likely to be exciting.

In the end, it's the passing game for the Bengals, between Palmer and WRs Ocho Cinco and Coles, that should thrive against this pathetic Bronco defense and earn the Bengals a slim victory.

Broncos 21, Bengals 27

Spread: Toss-Up (No pick)

Minnesota Vikings @ Cleveland Browns

Although it likely won't be much of a back-and-forth game, this matchup has several big storylines running through it.

First of all, its the first week of glory for Adrian Peterson owners, and the Vikings' passing game is another big-time spotlight, with Favre and Harvin starting for the first time on the team.

On the Cleveland end, the long-overcovered QB battle between Quinn and Anderson should at least see some sort of conclusion in this game, too.

However, despite the major headlines involved, Minnesota may find this easier than training camp.

Vikings 31, Browns 10....Lock of the Week No. 1

Spread: Vikings (-4)

New York Jets @ Houston Texans

The more you look at it, the more interesting this game gets.

Both the Houston offense and the NYJ defense seem on the verge of stardom. First of all, you have emerging QB Matt Schuab throwing to elite WR Andre Johnson, and then add in speedy Steve Slaton to the picture.

But no so fast, my friends. They're up against a unit that certainly has plenty of talen themselves, and I can see the Jets defense ended up easily in the top ten.

However, I think troubled RB Thomas Jones and rookie QB Mark Sanchez aren't good enough to score enough points for the Jets to win, although it will be close.

Texans 24, Jets 17

Spread: Texans (-4.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

This should be an easy win for the Colts. Key word: should be.

However, I think it may end differently. David Garrard is primed to have a big day, and the small recovery of Jones-Drew should give a great rushing advantage to the Jaguars.

Peyton Manning will still put up his usual numbers, but I can't see the rushing game or the defense handling themselves. In a unexpected prediction, I say the Jaguars pull off a road shocker against their division rival.

Jaguars 27, Colts 24....Upset of the Week

Spread: Jaguars (+6.5)

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

This will easily be the highest scoring game of the week.

The Saints offense is, well, without question the best scoring unit in the league. Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Lance Moore...really?!

Then you move to the Lions offense, which is actually better than most think. Stafford will hopefully get wits together, and Calvin Johnson is always there waiting, too. Kevin Smith can also hold his own.

Still, not a very close match we have here. Saints win in fantastic fashion.

Lions 17, Saints 38

Spread: Saints (-13.5)

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Well, at least we won't have any do-over punts, since the game's at Tampa.

This is another close matchup that will be tighter than a lot of us expect. I have a feeling that Tony Romo may not be fully prepared, and Derrick Ward and Ernest Graham will put up very impressive numbers on the other side.

The football world will be shocked when the Bucs lead with a quarter to play, but a spectacular comeback and a terrific performance by Nick Folk gets the Cowboys a nail-biting, last-second win.

Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 23

Spread: Buccaneers (+5)

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Are the Cardinals really as good as they were last year?

I'm fairly certain we may get a good idea as they face a tough division foe here. The 49ers will get the run going, and the Cardinals will open up their incredible passing game. Both offenses will excell, but the Cards will get it done by an extra touchdown or so.

49ers 20, Cardinals 27

Spread: Toss-Up

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

I seriously think that this could get very, very ugly.

The Giants have a great offense...and, oh yeah, a top of the line defense. Washington has, well, and underperforming QB, a mediocre defense, a bad recieving corps, and Clinton Portis.

Welcome to blowout city, and Lock number two of the week.

Giants 24, Redskins 3...Lock of the Week No. 2

Spread: Giants (-6.5)

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

The Rams come in about as dismantled as you'll ever see any NFL team, and the Seahawks appear ready for a rebound.

Matt Hasselbeck overperforms, the rushing game gets it done, and the twelth man bring Seattle a nice victory over a not-so-nice team.

Rams 13, Seahawks 24

Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

The Bears and the Packers don't like eachother. Really don't like eachother. And end the end, they may be both competing for the last playoff spot.

That's why this is my Game of the Week.

Jay Cutler hopefully will be better than he was in his shaky preseason, and Matt Forte and the defense are both very good as well.

However, the Packers also have an underrated defense and Aaron Rodgers looks primed to become a top-level quarterback for the Packers.

It will be closely contested all the way through, but Matt Forte will show his stuff once again the Bears will pull of a surprising road upset.

Bears 20, Packers 17

Spread: Bears (+4)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Terrell Owens is just not going to work out in Buffalo. Especially not when his debut is against the Patriots.

I'll just go ahead and say the Patriots do great and the Bills don't. It doesn't sound so bad that way, since it'll be on national television.

Bills 14, Patriots 34

Spread: Patriots (-11)

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Hopefully for the Chargers, this won't be like last season's opener, where Panthers WR Dwayne Jarrett caught an incredible pass in the back of the endzone for the winning TD with no time left.

Thankfully, though, it seems as if it won't be quite the same. First of all, it's a road game, but the Raiders are still not much of a quality opponent. The Chargers offense shows that they may be in the top three overall units in the NFL, and San Diego cruises to a double-digit victory.

Chargers 27, Raiders 10

Spread: Chargers (-9.5)

Agree? Disagree? Comment!