The Biggest 'What Ifs?' of the 2025 College Football Season

The long, winding road of the 2025 college football season is ending with Miami and Indiana squaring off in the national championship game.

As always, that matchup is the result of random events.

Indiana looks like a juggernaut and might be here anyway, but Miami is a talented squad that is connected to several what-if scenarios.

First, the Hurricanes benefited from one of the more controversial—even if appropriate—decisions in the College Football Playoff era. It probably didn't hurt Miami to play Ole Miss after Lane Kiffin departed for LSU, either.

Those are merely two examples of memorable pivot points that, in hindsight, may have dramatically altered the 2025 campaign.

What If Austin Simmons Didn't Get Hurt?

Randy J. Williams/Getty Images

After a brief, productive moment in last season's upset of Georgia, Austin Simmons garnered plenty of attention over the summer.

He opened the campaign as QB1, and the Rebels beat Georgia State and Kentucky with him behind center. Because of an ankle injury at UK, though, Ole Miss turned to little-known Trinidad Chambliss for Week 3.

Soon enough, Simmons got Wally Pipped.

Chambliss, a national champion QB at Division II Ferris State, emerged as a dynamic threat for Ole Miss. Understandably, even as Simmons returned to full health, the surging Rebs decided not to bench Chambliss. They ultimately went 11-1, only falling to Georgia on the road to a CFP trip. Oh, and Chambliss put up 376 yards to help Ole Miss eliminate Georgia from the playoff.

As with every scenario, we can only imagine the butterfly effect. Simmons could have been an absolute rock star. Or, maybe his pair of two-interception showings were a sign of things to come in a tough campaign for Ole Miss.

Simmons is now headed to Missouri for the 2026 season.

What If Iowa Finished an Upset?

Luke Lu/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Way back in September, the magic of Kinnick Stadium—at the expense of Indiana—almost happened again. Iowa had another chance to spring an upset in early November when Oregon visited, too.

In both cases, though, the Hawkeyes fell frustratingly short.

Indiana won 20-15 because of a 49-yard touchdown in the final two minutes, and Oregon hit a last-second 39-yard field goal to survive 18-16.

Flip the first result, and maybe Indiana wouldn't have reached or won the Big Ten Championship Game. Perhaps the Hoosiers wouldn't have headed to Oregon so confident or been as resilient at Penn State. It would have disrupted the Heisman Trophy path for Fernando Mendoza, too.

Change the second matchup in Iowa's favor, and Oregon could have missed the CFP altogether. The timing of that November setback may have dropped a two-loss Ducks team to the wrong side of the bubble.

The opposite result in either game could have reshaped the Big Ten standings and/or the playoff bracket.

What If South Carolina Didn't Collapse?

Joe Buvid/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images

The shell-shocked crowd at Kyle Field watched Texas A&M saunter to the locker room facing a 30-3 deficit to struggling South Carolina.

On that mid-November day, the Aggies were unbeaten. They had navigated a few close calls earlier in the season—Notre Dame, Auburn and Arkansas, specifically—but were staring down an ugly setback at the worst moment.

However, Texas A&M stormed back, scoring 28 points in the first 20 minutes of the second half and holding on down the stretch for a 31-30 win.

South Carolina's implosion stopped a more intense CFP debate.

Two weeks later, A&M lost to rival Texas. How would the selection committee have judged an Aggies squad that dropped their last two impactful games? They already fell behind one-loss Oregon and Ole Miss in reality; how many two-loss programs would have ranked ahead of A&M?

Go one step farther, and Miami wouldn't have opened the CFP with a victory in College Station. The ripple effects are poignant.

What If Auburn Clipped Alabama?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Cam Coleman

On a similar note, Alabama found itself mere moments from disaster.

Auburn fell behind 17-0 at the Iron Bowl but methodically trimmed the deficit. Early in the fourth quarter, AU evened the score at 20.

From there, everything that could go wrong essentially did. Bama's ensuing drive included two third-down penalties to extend the possession, a 4th-and-1 conversion and a 4th-and-2 touchdown. Auburn found its way into scoring territory, but Cam Coleman's fumble at the 20-yard line sealed a 27-20 result in the Crimson Tide's favor.

The victory sent Alabama to the SEC Championship Game—and ultimately the CFP, where it defeated Oklahoma in the first round.

Let's say Auburn made a defensive stop and found a winning score.

Today, we might be talking about Michigan coach Kalen DeBoer. Is it possible Lane Kiffin would be leading the Alabama program? Notre Dame assuredly would have made the playoff, as well.

The impacts of an Auburn win could've been incredibly significant.

What If the Committee Picked Notre Dame?

Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Even as Alabama won the Iron Bowl, the CFP committee had a challenging question to address for Selection Day: Which two of Bama, Miami and Notre Dame should be included?

According to the CFP criteria—comparable and head-to-head results, among the list—the answer appeared, at the very least, to start with Miami. Based on every previous ranking, though, the answer looked like Alabama and ND.

The committee chose a complicated route in its final deliberation, using BYU's lopsided loss in the Big 12 Championship Game to justify bumping up Miami yet ignoring Bama's lopsided loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game. Notre Dame wound up as the odd team out because it lacked a signature win.

And a whole lot of CFP-bound programs breathed a sigh of relief.

As the season progressed, Notre Dame played like a championship-caliber team. Many observers believe ND, thanks to an efficient offense and powerful defense, could have gone on a Miami-type run.

Instead, the broken-hearted Irish skipped a bowl altogether and turned their attention toward the 2026 season.

What If Lane Kiffin Didn't Leave Ole Miss?

Tyler Kaufman/Getty Images

When thinking about Lane Kiffin bolting Ole Miss for LSU, I'm reminded of a sketch from Family Guy where Peter wins a boat but is offered a choice between taking it or gambling on a mystery box instead.

"A boat's a boat, but the mystery box could be anything," he tells his wife, Lois. "It could even be a boat! You know how much we've wanted one of those."

Lane Kiffin wants a national championship. So, he passed up a realistic shot at a title with Ole Miss for the hope of having a shot at a title with LSU.

Hey, that's his choice. Maybe it pays off. Certainly could happen.

But a Kiffin-less Ole Miss dispatched Tulane and Georgia to reach the CFP semifinals, where it narrowly lost to Miami. Seeing all of those Ole Miss possessions end with third-down failures and a handful of field-goal attempts is more than enough reason to wonder if Kiffin's influence would've made a winning difference.

Instead, the Rebs are left remembering a short-handed near-miss in the playoff while Kiffin is chasing a mystery box.