Buying or Selling Top NFL Rookies for Fantasy Keeper and Dynasty Leagues

By the beginning of next week, every NFL team will have opened training camp and will have begun the final stretch of preparation for the regular season.

For those of us who partake in the life-altering pastime of fantasy football (seriously, it changes lives), the opening of training camps is sort of the unofficial start to the fantasy draft season. Over the next few weeks, the media world will be bombarded with articles examining a variety of different draft strategies.

One strategy that has recently become both popular and efficient involves focusing on rookie players. In recent years, guys like Eddie Lacy and Odell Beckham Jr. have shown that first-year players can make a significant impact on the fantasy football landscape.

Today, we are going to focus on this year's crop of top rookie players. However, we aren't going to just look at what those players might accomplish this year—we are going to take a look at each player's long-term potential as it relates to keeper and dynasty fantasy leagues. 

For this article, we are going to look at 14 of the top offensive skill players taken in the first two rounds of the 2015 draft and "buy" or "sell" their long-term value as high fantasy draft selections.

What Are Keeper and Dynasty Leagues?

For many fantasy players, the concept of keeper and dynasty leagues may seem a bit foreign. This is especially true now that a host of websites have popularized one-day fantasy gaming.

For those fantasy players who love a sense of real ownership and long-term competition, however, few things are quite as rewarding as building a successful fantasy franchise over a number of years and beating the pants off your colleagues in the process.

For the uninitiated, we'll give a brief explanation of keeper and dynasty leagues and why rookie prospects can present greater value in them than in traditional re-draft leagues.

In most keeper leagues, each owner can selected a number of players from his or her current team (usually one or two) to keep for the following season. These players then cost you picks at the top of your draft.

If, for example, you had New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. last season (91 receptions for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns) and you want to use a first-round pick to retain him for the 2015 season, you could.

Since you are keeping your absolute best players each season in a keeper league, only the top rookies are going to hold realistic long-term value.

Dynasty leagues are a different animal altogether. 

Dynasty leagues usually feature one and only one veteran draft, which occurs during the formation of the league. After teams are formed in the first fantasy season, the only way to add veteran players to your team is usually through free agency and trades. 

Most dynasty leagues, however, do have an annual rookie draft. Like in the real world, the right or wrong draft choice can seriously affect the long-term success of your fantasy franchise.

If, for example, you drafted Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck back in 2012, you're probably pretty happy with how the decision has worked out for your fantasy franchise—just as the Colts are happy with their decision. If you grabbed Washington Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III or Cleveland Browns running back Trent Richardson (now with the Oakland Raiders), the long-term return has been much less rewarding.

Rookie players are extremely valuable in dynasty leagues, provided you manage to select ones who will consistently provide high-end fantasy production over multiple seasons.

Many dynasty leagues hold their drafts shortly after the actual NFL draft, so to fantasy owners in this group, we apologize.

Now let's take a look at this year's rookie class and try to determine which players will and won't remain relevant over the long haul in keeper and dynasty leagues.

Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston has a lot going for him. He has the size and build (6'4", 231 lbs) of a prototypical pocket passer, he has a strong arm and he has a track record of leadership and success.

With pass-catchers like Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins on the Tampa roster, Winston is also going to have a supporting cast of big, quarterback-friendly targets to work with.

Here's the thing, though. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league and a rookie like Winston looks like your best option at quarterback, you are either in a very deep league or you are probably in some trouble.

Last season, 14 different quarterbacks threw for at least 3,500 yards and 13 of those threw for 27 touchdowns or more. That list doesn't include dual-threat quarterbacks like Russell Wilson or Colin Kaepernick, either.

The chances of Winston being more than a backup-caliber quarterback as a rookie are fairly slim, and he probably won't be a player to retain at quarterback in keeper leagues. His value in dynasty leagues might actually be even lower.

Next year's projected quarterback class appears tremendously deep. Guys like Christian Hackenberg of Penn State, Michigan State's Connor Cook, Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett of Ohio State and Stanford's Kevin Hogan could all be part of the group that comes out next offseason. 

Unless you feel certain that Winston will be better than anyone from next year's group by year two or three, it's probably smarter to spend your top draft picks on a different position. 

Verdict: Sell

Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

Eric Risberg/Associated Press

The Oakland Raiders selected former Alabama receiver Amari Cooper with the fourth overall pick in this year's draft for good reason. The guy is big (6'1", 210 lbs), explosive and productive. Last season alone, Cooper hauled in 124 receptions for 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns.

The fact that he should immediately become the No. 1 or No. 2 target on a bad Raiders team is even better news for potential fantasy owners.

Last season, Oakland ranked last in both rushing offense (77.5 yards per game) and scoring defense (28.2 points per game allowed). Unless there are significant improvements in both areas, this tells us that the Raiders are likely to throw the football often in an attempt to pull ahead on the scoreboard.

Last season, veteran receiver James Jones hauled in 73 passes from then-rookie quarterback Derek Carr. Jones then spent most of the offseason as a free agent, and according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, he only recently reached a deal with the New York Giants.

According to Pro Football Focus, Jones was targeted a whopping 108 times in 2014 despite being just the 193rd-best receiver in the NFL.

It's exciting to think about the number of opportunities Cooper is going to get in the next few seasons.

If he is even remotely as good as advertised, then Cooper is likely to be a consistent fantasy producer. His value in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues will be even higher. He will definitely be worth a high pick in keeper leagues and should be extremely desirable in most dynasty formats.  

Verdict: Buy

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is an athletic, strong-armed rookie passer who could well develop into one of the better young passers in the NFL in the near future.

However, as was the case with Tampa's Winston, there are a couple of problems with targeting Mariota in keeper or dynasty leagues.

The first is that the Titans, like the Buccaneers, aren't expected to make a massive leap forward in 2015. These were the two worst teams a season ago, after all. Mariota's supporting cast isn't likely to be top notch, though he does have some interesting young weapons.

The Titans were rated just 28th overall in pass protection by Pro Football Focus for the 2014 season.

The other problem, as we mentioned earlier, is that there are already a number of capable fantasy quarterbacks in the league, and next year's crop of incoming signal-callers looks to be full of equal or superior talent.

You would have to own a quarterback who may retire soon, like Peyton Manning, and would have to be confident that Winston or Mariota is a better long-term option than anyone from the 2016 class to justify spending a high dynasty draft pick on either player.

Drafting Mariota to be a backup in a keeper league isn't a bad idea—just don't do so expecting him to finish the year as a guy you want to retain for next season.

Verdict: Sell

Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears

Dominic DiSaia/Associated Press

There are a couple of reasons to be concerned about the immediate potential of Chicago Bears rookie wideout Kevin White.

The first is that White enters training camp on the physically unable to perform list. According to NFL Media's Stacey Dales, White has been inactive with a shin injury since organized team activities (OTAs) and will rest until the timeline to heal the injury is complete.

Every rep that White misses in camp due to injury is going to take away from his preparation for the season.

Another reason is that it's difficult to predict which incarnation of Bears quarterback Jay Cutler we're going to see this season. He was rated a lowly 67th overall among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus in 2014.

However, the long-term value of White appears very high. The 6'3", 215-pound pass-catcher caught 109 balls for 1,447 yards and 10 scores at West Virginia last season. He has the size and skills to thrive at the pro level, and Odell Beckham showed last year that rookies can return from injury and dominate.

Before the draft, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah called White the best receiver in the draft and compared him to Atlanta Falcons receiver Julio Jones. This is the type of player that White should be able to develop into within the next couple of seasons.

Unless it is determined that White's injury will cause him to miss significant time during the regular season, then he should be worth a mid-round pick in keeper leagues. He is definitely a guy to target for your dynasty team.

Verdict: Buy

Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley has the size (6'1", 222 lbs), skills and quickness that NFL teams want in a workhorse running back. He rushed for 911 yards on just 123 carries at Georgia last year and has averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry over the past three seasons.

Unfortunately, he is also coming off an ACL tear that ended his 2014 campaign.

The good news is that Gurley appears healthy enough to at least take part in preseason preparations. According to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Gurley has passed his conditioning test and will begin Rams camp on the active roster.

The bad news for fantasy owners is that the Rams don't have a reason to rush Gurley back from injury and into action as a rookie. Tre Mason (179 carries for 765 yards in 2014) is on the roster and should be a serviceable starter while Gurley is eased into the lineup.

It will be important to keep a close eye on Gurley during the preseason. If he gets few or no opportunities there, it could be an indication that St. Louis won't be comfortable giving him a significant workload in the near future.

This hurts his value in re-draft and even in keeper leagues. If Gurley only gets a few carries each game, it will be difficult to justify keeping him over a proven veteran in 2016. 

However, Gurley should hold value in dynasty leagues, even if it won't be realized for a season or more. The Rams play in a physical division where running the ball is the name of the offensive game. Just keep in mind that there is some chance that he may never be the player he was before the injury.

Gurley is a bit of a risk, especially if your draft is before the preseason.

Verdict: Split

Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

There are plenty of positives when it comes to Baltimore Ravens rookie receiver Breshad Perriman. At 6'2" and 212 pounds, he is a big and physical receiver. However, he also possesses blazing straight-line speed (he ran a 4.27-second 40 at his pro day).

Perriman is also joining a team that has the services of cannon-armed quarterback Joe Flacco.

The problems with Perriman are two-fold. 

For one, he has a history of concentration drops. This is a correctable issue, but one that could prevent a veteran like Flacco from immediately trusting Perriman in key situations.

The other issue is that Perriman is a very raw route-runner. He relies far more on his speed and his athleticism than any sort of refined technique. In many ways, Perriman is very much like the guy he is replacing, Torrey Smith.

This isn't necessarily a good thing for fantasy owners. Smith was a speedster who could take the top off the defense, but he was rarely a true fantasy star. In four seasons with the Ravens, he only posted more than 50 catches or 900 yards once.

It is also difficult to predict what the Ravens offense will look like in a couple of years after 36-year-old veteran Steve Smith (79 receptions for 1,065 yards in 2014) decides to finally walk away from the game. Perriman is likely to see an awful lot of attention if there isn't a legitimate threat across the field from him.

"Keep Perriman on your radar in dynasty leagues and as a late-round flier in standard or PPR leagues," Matthew Ishmael of FantasyPros recently wrote. "He should be able to avoid being a total boom-or-bust player, and if you temper your expectations Perriman he will not disappoint."

Perriman should have some long-term value, and it's hard to argue with a pick made by general manager Ozzie Newsome. However, he probably isn't worth more than a mid-round pick in normal keeper leagues. There are also safer receiver picks to be had at the beginning of a dynasty draft. 

Verdict: Sell

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

There isn't much to dislike about San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon. He is big (6'1", 215 lbs), fast (ran a 4.52-second 40 at the scouting combine) and has a history of production.

In 2014 alone, Gordon racked up 2,587 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns for the Wisconsin Badgers.

Gordon is what NFL running backs are supposed to be, but he may not become a superstar in his inaugural season. He is likely to split backfield work with Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown in 2015. 

Getting in on passing downs could be even more difficult for Gordon as a rookie. Oliver caught 36 passes in 14 games last season and Woodhead caught 76 balls two seasons ago (he was lost to a broken leg three games into 2014).

"There's a reason why we selected Melvin with the first pick of where we picked him...but they're all going to play," Chargers head coach Mike McCoy said, via the team's official website. "The running backs are going to play by committee. We've done that the last couple years and that's the way the offensive staff wants the offense to be run."

The words "running back committee" are to fantasy owners what the word "it" is to the Knight who says Ni. However, this shouldn't cause owners in keeper and dynasty leagues to overlook Gordon's long-term value.

Brown, Oliver and Woodhead will all see their current contracts expire after the 2016 season. Gordon is likely to see his workload increase over the next two years and could be a true every-down back by the time the 2017 season rolls around.

It's also worth noting that Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers is entering the final year of his current deal. If he doesn't return and the team is forced to rely on a rookie or other unproven passer, Gordon's value is likely to increase even more.

Verdict: Buy

Devin Smith, WR, New York Jets

Dominic DiSaia/Associated Press

Wide receiver Devin Smith, a second-round pick of the New York Jets in this year's draft, is another speed guy who will soon be stretching fields at the pro level.

The Ohio State product ran a 4.42-second 40 at the scouting combine, but he seems to play even faster on the field. He averaged 28.2 yards per catch in 2014 and scored on 12 of his 33 receptions.

The problem for Smith is that he isn't entering the most desirable of situations. His quarterback for this season, and possibly longer, is likely to be either Geno Smith or Ryan Fitzpatrick. The latter saw his 2014 season with the Houston Texans ended by a broken leg. Geno Smith, meanwhile, was rated just 71st overall among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus last season.

Neither quarterback really flashes the type of long-ball accuracy needed to take full advantage of Devin Smith's speed.

Smith is also likely to be behind both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker on the Jets' depth chart for at least the immediate future. 

Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Erik Frenz recently wrote about how a limited role could limit Smith's immediate production:

"

He can be effective when he's on the field thanks to the presence of the veteran wide receivers taking some of the attention away from the rookie, but those opportunities may be too few and far between for Smith to put up monster numbers 

It would be reasonable to expect him to finish his rookie season with at least 30 receptions for 450 yards (15 yards per reception) and a pair of touchdowns. 

"

Unless the Jets' offensive situation changes drastically, Smith just doesn't look like a smart early pick for keeper or dynasty drafts.

Verdict: Sell

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

Alan Diaz/Associated Press

Miami Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker was the third receiver taken in this year's draft. The 6'2", 218-pound former Louisville star comes with both playmaking ability and injury concerns.

He returned from foot surgery to catch 43 passes for 855 yards over the final six games of 2014, which is how he ended up as a first-round selection. However, he had surgery this offseason to replace a screw from the prior operation, and he has yet to return to the practice field.

"It's a long time away and we'll see," Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin said of Parker's return, per Chris Perkins of the Sun Sentinel. "I'm calm. I like what he's doing, he's working hard, and he's got a good attitude."

It seems that Parker is likely to miss a significant portion of the preseason and potentially part of the regular season, as well. This obviously hurts his immediate value.

What hurts Parker's long-term value is that he is entering a crowed receiving corps. Guys like Greg Jennings, Kenny Stills, Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron are going to take receptions away from Parker this season and probably for the next two.

Still, Parker is entering a pass-heavy offense with an above-average quarterback. Ryan Tannehill passed for at least 3,900 yards in each of the past two seasons and was rated 11th overall among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus in 2014.

Parker probably isn't worth more than a late pick in keeper leagues, but he should be a smart addition to your dynasty team if Cooper and White are already off the board.

Verdict: Buy

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

John Raoux/Associated Press

Jacksonville Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon is entering the type of situation that can forge a fantasy star.

His only real competition at tailback is Denard Robinson, who led the team with 582 yards last season but is built to be a rotational back (6'0" and 197 lbs) rather than a true workhorse.

Jacksonville is also going to want to protect struggling quarterback Blake Bortles with a strong running game early and often during the season. Bortles was rated dead-last among 75 quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus last season.

Unfortunately, there are a lot of questions when it comes to Yeldon as a player. He has played through a number of injuries over the years and has ball-security issues. He fumbled 10 times over the past three seasons, which resulted in seven turnovers.

His former head coach at Alabama, Nick Saban, also questioned Yeldon's work ethic, according to Mike Kaye of First Coast News.

Yeldon isn't an exceptionally fast back, either, and is more of a grinder than a true breakaway threat.

"For being a creative back, he has no juice to get away from anyone. He's a rotational back. I wouldn't take him any sooner than the fifth [round] because you can find guys like that all over the place," one unnamed NFL running backs coach said of Yeldon prior to the draft, via NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. 

Yeldon's ability to produce in the passing game and in pass protection will likely get him on the field right away. However, it feels like his pro career is going to be more Trent Richardson than Eddie Lacy. Yeldon is probably a guy you can afford to snag as a free agent somewhere down the line.

There are just better rookies to spend a high pick on if you're looking long term.

Verdict: Sell

Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Former USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor is entering a very promising situation with the Philadelphia Eagles.

The 6'0", 198-pound Agholor steps into an uptempo, pass-heavy Chip Kelly offense that appears to be quarterback-proof. Despite relying on backup Mark Sanchez for much of last season, the Eagles still ranked sixth in passing offense (272.2 yards per game) and third in scoring (29.6 points per game).

Yet, the Eagles were only ranked 23rd in passing efficiency by Pro Football Focus for the 2014 season.

If recently acquired quarterback Sam Bradford can step in and provide an improved and steady presence under center, this offense could be even more dangerous.

This should be music to the ears of Agholor, who caught 104 passes for 1,313 yards a season ago. He has adequate speed (ran a 4.42-second 40 at the combine) and is a precise route-runner. Agholor should have no trouble producing early and often in Philadelphia.

Last season, four different pass-catchers had at least 55 receptions for the Eagles. This should be seen as the floor for Agholor's rookie campaign. As he develops, he could easily start mirroring the type of production Jeremy Maclin (85 receptions, 1,318 yards) had while in this system.

Agholor will be especially valuable in PPR leagues because Kelly's offense almost guarantees he is going to see a number of opportunities each game. He is an extremely smart pick for dynasty leagues because Kelly and his offense aren't likely to go anywhere as long as they remain successful.

Verdict: Buy

Ameer Abullah, RB, Detroit Lions

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

There is a lot to like about what Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah offers as a pro. He is compactly built at 5'9" and 205 pounds, he is a decisive runner and he is a serviceable receiver out of the backfield.

In 2014, Abdullah racked up 1,880 combined rushing and receiving yards with 22 total touchdowns.

However, Abdullah is risky as a long-term fantasy prospect for a couple of reasons.

For starters, the Lions are likely to remain a pass-first team so long as Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Matthew Stafford are spearheading the offense.

The team rushed for just 88.9 yards per game a season ago (25th in the NFL). This was despite the fact the team was actually pretty efficient when running the football. Pro Football Focus rated Detroit 13th overall in rushing offense for the 2014 season.

The other issue is that Abdullah is most likely entering a backfield committee that includes Joique Bell and Theo Riddick. Bell carried the ball 223 times last season, and he and Riddick hauled in 34 passes each.

If Abdullah does emerge as an every-down back, it probably won't be for some time. He looks like a depth player at best in keeper leagues and is only worth gambling on with a high pick in dynasty leagues if you are extremely thin at running back and can't land one of the other top backs in this year's rookie class.

Verdict: Sell

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

The Indianapolis Colts selected former Miami wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the first round of this year's draft to the surprise of more than a few.

The Colts already had T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener on the roster. Now Dorsett is in the mix, which is great for the Indianapolis offense but questionable for fantasy owners.

This is an awfully crowded group of pass-catchers, which is why Dorsett's immediate value should be questioned.

However, Dorsett's long-term value is on par with any of the other receivers taken in the first round of this year's draft. Though he is a bit undersized at 5'10" and 185 pounds, he is exceptionally fast (ran a 4.33-second 40 at the combine), runs good routes and is a relatively polished overall product.

He also possesses a high football IQ and immense versatility. Colts general manager Ryan Grigson spoke to Mike Wells of ESPN.com about Dorsett:

"

We wouldn't be moving him around if he wasn't able to handle that. His aptitude has impressed me. Obviously, speed is his calling card. But it's not just that. He's a fast guy who can play football. He has receiver's hands and he has elusiveness and change of direction that sometimes true speed freaks don't have.

"

The Colts have certainty at quarterback in Andrew Luck and could be losing some of their other receivers soon. Johnson is nearing the back end of his career at 34 years of age, while Hilton, Allen and Fleener are all entering the final year of their current contracts.

Dorsett could realistically be the No. 1 or No. 2 receiver by as early as 2016. He's a bit of a gamble in keeper leagues because a lot will be based on his role this season, but he looks like a smart selection in dynasty formats if you can get him.

Verdict: Buy

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

Tennessee Titans rookie wideout Dorial Green-Beckham is the type of freak athlete teams dream about incorporating into their receiving corps.

He stands 6'5" and 237 pounds, yet he ran an impressive 4.49-second 40 at the scouting combine.

There are, however, some serious problems with Green-Beckham as a long-term fantasy prospect. For one, he has a lengthy history of off-field issues. He was twice arrested on marijuana charges and was accused of assaulting a woman while at Missouri. 

The assault allegations led to Green-Beckham's dismissal from Missouri and his transfer to Oklahoma, where he wouldn't play because of NCAA transfer rules.

The fact that Green-Beckham spent a year away from football is also concerning, because he is perceived as very raw and very reliant on his physical abilities.

"We had him in for a visit and put him on the board and he was completely lost. Whoever takes him better have a plan for him because it could be rough early on," one unnamed AFC offensive coordinator said of Green-Beckham, per Zierlein.

None of this means for certain that Green-Beckham won't develop into a top-flight wide receiver. However, there will likely be a steep learning curve, especially with a rookie quarterback in Tennessee. There will also be a lot of risk involved.

Just ask Cleveland Browns receiver Josh Gordon how a marijuana habit can affect your long-term NFL prospects.

There is a lot to like with Green-Beckham, but he is just too unpolished and too high-risk to justify a high pick in either keeper or dynasty leagues.

Verdict: Sell