David Price Rental Makes Jays' Dream of Taking Down Yankees, AL East a Reality

That sound the New York Yankees are hearing is footsteps coming from the direction of Toronto.

And they're coming fast.

Earlier this week, the Blue Jays landed a massive upgrade for their offense in the person of slugging shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. But while that was a fun and unexpected blockbuster, everyone and his uncle rightly pointed out that it didn't solve Toronto's need for an ace starting pitcher.

Well, it turns out the Jays were saving that move for later, and that they had just the man for the job in mind: David Price.

The Cy Young-winning left-hander is headed north of the border, Toronto announced Thursday. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports was the first to report Thursday morning that the Blue Jays were closing in on a deal to acquire Price from the Detroit Tigers. A couple of hours later, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports had the done deal in his hands:

Just like that, a Blue Jays starting rotation that has been in search of something solid has instead gotten one of the best pitchers in baseball.

"We feel we added a No. 1 starter and one of the best starters in the game right now," said Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos, via radio play-by-play man Mike Wilner. "Getting a guy like Price, those guys can make you a great team all by themselves."

The one catch, of course, is that Price is not coming cheap.

In Daniel Norris, the Blue Jays are giving up a left-hander recently ranked as MLB's No. 18 prospect by Baseball America. Baseball America also ranked Matt Boyd as Toronto's No. 7 prospect, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes that neither he nor Jairo Labourt is to be taken lightly:

That's three talented arms going to Detroit in exchange for a pitcher the Blue Jays will only be renting for the next couple of months, as Price is due for free agency at the end of 2015. That's a rather large gamble, and the only way it's paying off is if the Blue Jays make it to October.

But therein lies the reason why the "one catch" of this deal for the Blue Jays is the cost of it. With the acquisition of Price following the acquisition of Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays should at least earn a wild-card berth and now stand a much stronger chance of tracking down the Yankees in the AL East race.

The Blue Jays entered Thursday with just a 51-51 record, which put them seven games off the pace of the Yankees in the AL East and two games out in the American League wild-card race. To these ends, they don't look like an obvious playoff team.

The odds, however, really like the Jays.

According to FanGraphs, their 33.1 percent odds of making the playoffs are fifth-highest in the American League. At 26.0 percent, they also have the highest wild-card odds of any team chasing down the AL's second wild-card spot. And at 7.1 percent, they're second behind only the Yankees in their odds of winning the AL East.

So, pretty good. And these numbers were all calculated before the trade. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, Toronto's odds of making the playoffs (to 45.0 percent) and winning the division (to 12.2 percent) have both taken significant jumps. That, apparently, is the effect of adding a pitcher such as Price.

In him, the Blue Jays really are getting a legit ace. Price had some issues in 2013 and 2014, but he's shrugged those off to post a 2.53 ERA in 146.0 innings this year. He also boasts strong peripherals—such as 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, 1.8 walks per nine innings and a 3.00 FIP—making his 2015 season look about as strong as his Cy Young season in 2012.

John Minchillo/Associated Press

And this isn't coming out of nowhere. Price has enjoyed a velocity spike that's taken his average fastball up to 93.9 miles per hour. That combined with increased use of his changeup has resulted in an 11.4 swinging-strike rate, the best Price has ever done as a starter.

You can therefore make the argument that Price is more dominant right now than he's ever been before. That's just the kind of starter the Blue Jays rotation needs to help bring down its 4.34 ERA.

Oh, and there's also the possibility that Price will become even more dominant with the Blue Jays.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Price is swapping MLB's 23rd-most efficient defense for the 12th-most efficient defense. Also according to Baseball Prospectus, he's swapping two of baseball's worst strike-framers in Alex Avila and James McCann for one of its best in Russell Martin. And in a weird twist of fate, ESPN.com's park factors also have Rogers Centre playing as a more pitcher-friendly park than Comerica Park in 2015.

Given all this, yeah, Price should love pitching in Toronto.

Granted, he could only be pitching in Toronto for 10 or 11 starts. But the fact that he's such a gigantic upgrade over anyone else the Blue Jays could have started in these games should make a difference. They're a better team now than they were before they had Price. Add in how much better Tulowitzki makes the Blue Jays' already-lethal offense, and all told the Blue Jays are a significantly better team than they were entering the week.

It pretty much goes without saying that this should frighten the other teams in the AL wild-card race. But lest they feel too comfortable, the Yankees should also be feeling a bit of fear.

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, the Yankees look reasonably safe atop the AL East. They've been the best team in the division for more or less the entire season, and they're certainly looking the part now with a 9-3 record since the All-Star break.

And yeah, given their recent history against Price, they may not be too afraid of him. As Jason Collette noted:

But though the Yankees may not be quaking in their boots at the sight of Price alone, the sight of the Blue Jays as a whole is at least worth a shiver down their collective spine.

In particular, what the Yankees should fear is how their pitching will contain Toronto's offense. CC Sabathia and Nathan Eovaldi have been inconsistent all year. Masahiro Tanaka is one of MLB's most homer-prone pitchers. Michael Pineda has also been no sure thing, and now word is coming out from Marly Rivera of ESPN Deportes that the injury bug has gotten to him again.

In all, the Yankees have a rotation that, while hardly a disaster, doesn't scare anybody. Least of all a team such as the Blue Jays, who have the most dangerous lineup in MLB.

And the kicker is that this lineup is going to get its chances against the Yankees. The two clubs have only played six times in 2015, leaving 13 more contests to be played between now and the end of the season. If Toronto's lineup does its thing while also getting at least some support from Price in a couple of outings, those 13 games could prove to be a nightmare for the Yankees.

Enough of a nightmare to erase the Yankees' seven-game lead in the AL East? That's probably a stretch. But the Blue Jays could use those 13 games to put a dent in it. Provided their new additions hold up their end of the bargain against other teams too, said dent could be the difference in their stealing the AL East in the end.

If it wasn't already clear after the trade for Tulowitzki, it should definitely be clear now after the deal for Price that the Blue Jays are desperate to make their first postseason since 1993, be it via the wild card or the AL East title. More than any other American League team, they're going all in.

And though nothing is guaranteed, things definitely look more promising than they did a few days ago.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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