Expert College Football Betting Locks for Non-Playoff Bowls, Part 2
While the postseason is already well underway, the bowl season, in its perfectly imperfect form, will carry onward.
By now, you know the drill. Opt-outs, coaching changes and transfer-portal hoopla provide challenges when it comes to wagering. It's tougher than it ever has been, but we are up for the challenge.
We started the bowl season with our first installment of non-playoff locks, and we're continuing that trend. All remaining playoff games will still be bet and broken down; have no fear. Right now, though, we're focusing on finding value with the remaining bowls.
So, amid the holiday chaos, let's dive in. We're shopping for both gifts and winners this time of year.
Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (-1.5) vs. Cal
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First, it is your duty to bet on this magnificent game. It'll take place on Christmas Eve, and it's the perfect reason to politely ignore family and friends.
Thankfully, we also have a competitive matchup.
The point spread showcases just how much better Hawaii has become in a relatively short period of time. The Rainbow Warriors finished with eight wins, and they won five of their final seven games.
Cal, meanwhile, has its quarterback of the future. Freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele showed promise in his first season, and he'll be back as a sophomore. His presence alone should give bettors plenty to think about, although this team was leaking oil down the stretch.
Playing in Hawaii with a wealth of momentum, the Rainbow Warriors are poised for a solid showing. A close, competitive game ends with a Hawai'i victory.
The Pick: Hawaii (-1.5)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: BYU (-4.5) vs. Georgia Tech
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Notre Dame's decision to remove itself from this bowl game shouldn't dampen what we're left with, a matchup between two of the hottest programs in college football.
We're not going to get cute. We're going to back a program that retained its head coach, and we're going to do so without hesitation.
The fact that BYU was able to keep Kalani Sitake from leaving for Penn State is an enormous win. And as long as quarterback Bear Bachmeier is healthy, which is something to monitor leading up to the game, the Cougars should be fine.
Offensively, both teams can run the ball. Both teams also rely on their quarterback's mobility. The difference between the two, however, is the defense, and that's where BYU will have a distinct advantage.
The Cougars finished the season with the nation's No. 21 scoring defense, and that figure might have been even better if not for two losses against Texas Tech. Georgia Tech finished No. 71 in the same category.
Bowl season doesn't have to be complicated: As long as Bachmeier is healthy, we're rolling.
The Pick: BYU (-4.5)
Texas Bowl: Houston (-3) vs. LSU
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It's hard to envision what this version of LSU will look like.
Given how this season transpired with the initial optimism, the coaching change, the injuries and now the hiring of Lane Kiffin, it's easy to wonder how this team in transition will come together.
The Tigers lost four of their last six games, and the two wins over Western Kentucky and Arkansas came by a combined four points.
It's been bad, and now there are more distractions to account for, coupled with opt-outs, transfers and other movement. And although Houston seemed to be leaking oil near the end of the season, the roster should remain mostly intact.
Head coach Willie Fritz has done a tremendous job, leading his team to multiple Top 25 rankings in the AP Poll and nine wins. While the Tigers might still have a talent advantage at some positions, this feels like a game Houston should hold a massive motivational edge.
LSU has been telling us for weeks where this team is currently; Cougars take advantage.
The Pick: Houston (-3)
ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa (+5.5) vs. Vanderbilt
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Few teams in all of football played as well as Vanderbilt did down the stretch. Few teams played more competitively against elite, playoff contending squads than Iowa did all season.
The end result is a fascinating New Year's Eve bowl matchup between teams that should be largely intact and still motivated.
Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia should suit up. But Eli Stowers, the team's exceptional tight end, seems likely to opt out.
Time will tell, but given all he means to that offense, his absence would be massive.
For Iowa, it will have the assignment of keeping Pavia in check. Few teams could, and the QB eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark in two of his team's last three games. Going up against defensive coordinator Phil Parker and a stout Iowa defense should be a unique challenge, though.
While Iowa's offense isn't exactly high-powered, it is much improved. And if the team can hang onto the ball and control the clock, it should be able to keep this close and push for a mild upset.
The Pick: Iowa (+5.5)
Sun Bowl: Duke (-3) vs. Arizona State
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Arizona State fans, let's start with good news.
Your head football coach, the spectacular Kenny Dillingham, is back. This outcome is far bigger than any bowl game or individual season.
Please celebrate accordingly before turning your attention to this matchup.
As for this game, it's hard not to wonder what this offense will look like without QB Sam Leavitt and wideout Jordyn Tyson.
Granted, the program got used to this reality at times this year as both navigated injuries. With both out of this game and other key contributors unavailable, the team will take a hit on offense and defense. Jeff Sims, the team's backup who has a wealth of reps and has seen the field plenty this year, will be under center.
Duke, meanwhile, will have quarterback Darian Mensah under center. He has announced he will return to the program for next season, and that is enormous for a program that managed to win the ACC.
If Arizona State had all its key pieces, this would be different. But given Duke's momentum and ASU's turbulent past month, this feels like the perfect opportunity for the Blue Devils to win yet again.
The Pick: Blue Devils (-3)
Other Games on the Card
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Music City Bowl: Tennessee vs. Illinois (Over 61.5)
While the total is massive on paper, this game screams fun and scoreboard explosions. Illinois wins (bonus lock), and these two teams deliver the best football game of the bowl season.
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Mississippi State (-4) vs. Wake Forest
Sure, Mississippi State struggled down the stretch after a strong start. But the competition—which was brutal—played a significant part. The Bulldogs have an offense that should challenge Wake Forest throughout.
Pinstripe Bowl: Penn State (+3) vs. Clemson
Unlike many programs adjusting to new normals, the Nittany Lions have been there for a while. And although they're not immune to transfers and opt-outs, this program has played much better after a chaotic start.
Rate Bowl: New Mexico (+2.5) vs. Minnesota
The Lobos quietly delivered a massive season, winning their final six games while staying competitive in all matchups, including a Week 1 game against Michigan. Against Minnesota, they'll do something similar and win as a small dog.
