NFL Playoff Bracket Picture 2025-26, Standings, Scenarios After Bucs vs. Falcons

Week 15 has kicked off after the Atlanta Falcons stunned the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-28 on Thursday Night Football.

Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had the game of his life (and one of the best individual performances by a tight end in recent memory) with 11 receptions for 166 yards and three touchdowns.

Running back Bijan Robinson (175 total yards, one touchdown) and quarterback Kirk Cousins (373 passing yards, three scores) helped Atlanta score 15 unanswered points to end a game capped by Zane Gonzalez's 43-yard field goal with no time left.

With that, the Bucs dropped to 7-7 and a half-game behind the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South lead.

After that result, here's a look at the latest standings and some playoff scenarios.

AFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo/Gregory Bull

Division Leaders

1. Denver Broncos (11-2, leads AFC West)
2. New England Patriots (11-2, leads AFC East)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4, leads AFC South)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, leads AFC North)

The Broncos have a brutal schedule to close the season against three nine-win teams (vs. Green Bay Packers and vs. Jacksonville Jaguars and at Los Angeles Chargers) and at the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs, who are struggling at 6-7 but could very well give Denver a tough game.

That would seemingly give the edge to the Patriots in the race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Denver has the edge right now on the common opponents tiebreaker, but New England has the most winnable game between the two teams (at the 3-10 New York Jets on Dec. 28).

The Pats do have a tough game Sunday vs. the 9-4 Buffalo Bills but have a few winnable ones at the reeling 6-7 Baltimore Ravens and vs. the 6-7 (albeit) surging Miami Dolphins.

Wild-Card Race

5. Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)
6. Buffalo Bills (9-4)
7. Houston Texans (8-5)

The Chargers are a sneaky candidate to get the AFC's No. 1 seed. They beat the Denver Broncos earlier this year and play them one more time. If they win out, Denver loses one more outside the Charger game and the Patriots lose two of their final four, then L.A. gets the No. 1 seed.

The Bills may be destined for the wild card at this point, even with a win over the Patriots on Sunday. They would still be a game behind New England, but the Pats would have the tiebreaker edge on division record due to Buffalo's 30-13 loss to Miami earlier this year.

The good news is that the Bills should be favored in their final three games: at Cleveland, home Philadelphia and at the Jets.

The Texans' defense is causing serious problems leaguewide, and now the team is facing the three-win Arizona Cardinals and two-win Las Vegas Raiders over the next two weeks. If they handle business in those games, then they'll be 10-5 with a shot to contend for the division.

In the Hunt

8. Indianapolis Colts (8-5)
9. Baltimore Ravens (6-7)
10. Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)
11. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

Not all 6-7 records are equal in this group. Per NFL.com, the Ravens have the best chance to make the playoffs at 34 percent, followed by the Chiefs at 12 percent and the Dolphins at less than one percent.

Baltimore has the "easiest" path to the playoffs via the AFC North, although the Pittsburgh Steelers have a full game edge as well as the head-to-head tiebreaker right now after winning 27-22 on Sunday. Those two teams do close the season on Jan. 4.

The Chiefs are in huge trouble after losing 20-10 at the Houston Texans, who stand in the way of Kansas City making the playoffs. Simply put, they need to win out and get help at this point to have a chance. That's a lot easier said than done with the 9-4 Chargers and 11-2 Broncos on the schedule, although the two-win Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders are on the ledger too.

Eliminated

13. New York Jets (3-10)
14. Cleveland Browns (3-10)
15. Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
16. Tennessee Titans (2-11)

NFC Playoff Picture

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Division Leaders

1. Los Angeles Rams (10-3, leads NFC West)
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, leads NFC North)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, leads NFC East)
4. Carolina Panthers (7-6, leads NFC South)

At this point, one can figure that the NFC's No. 1 seed will either feature the NFC West champion or NFC North winner.

Right now, the 10-3 Rams have the edge, but for how long? A tough home game against the 8-5 Detroit Lions looms, followed by a road matchup against the 10-3 Seattle Seahawks.

However, if the Rams take care of business, the NFC West (and NFC) could be theirs. L.A. beat Seattle 21-19 earlier this year and would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Seahawks with another win.

Meanwhile, the 9-3-1 Green Bay Packers have to visit the 11-2 Denver Broncos and 9-4 Chicago Bears over the next two weeks. That's a tough duo to deal with, but the Packers have less challenging games against a reeling 6-7 Baltimore Ravens team at home and a 5-8 Minnesota Vikings squad to end the season. If the Packers win three of four (including a victory over Chicago), the division is theirs.

Wild-Card Race

5. Seattle Seahawks (10-3)
6. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)
7. Chicago Bears (9-4)

The Seattle Seahawks' final four games are all against teams with winning records in the 8-5 Indianapolis Colts, 10-3 Los Angeles Rams, 7-6 Carolina Panthers and 9-4 San Francisco 49ers. That's a treacherous road to say the least, but none of those teams are looking forward to seeing the Seahawks either. The Seahawks LAO control their own destiny to get the No. 1 seed.

The 49ers are in a better position in the NFC West than their record implies. They are 4-1 in the division and 8-2 in the conference. If they win out (that includes a home game over Seattle to end the season), then they will win the division if the Rams lose just one of their last four contests thanks to the conference record tiebreaker.

The Bears have a very winnable home game Sunday against the three-win Browns but then face the gauntlet of the Packers at home, the 49ers on the road and the Lions at home. They are in an interesting position whereas a No. 1 seed and missing out on the playoffs are both plausible. This is a tough and resilient team, though, that's making noise in head coach Ben Johnson's first year.

In the Hunt

8. Detroit Lions (8-5)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
10. Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)
11. Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

The Detroit Lions got a huge boost last Sunday when the Packers beat the Bears 28-21. The Lions have the head-to-head edge over the Bears, who sit a game ahead of them in the standings, by virtue of a 52-21 win in Week 2. They'll also play the Bears in Week 18, and that matchup could very well determine the last playoff participant.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have to be bewildered after falling to 7-7. A 6-2 start is up in smoke. The good news is that they play the division-leading Carolina Panthers twice and control their own destiny. The bad news is the Panthers will take a one-game lead if they beat the New Orleans Saints on the road Sunday.

The Dallas Cowboys are staying alive by virtue of the Philadelphia Eagles' monumental slide. The Eagles have lost three straight and only lead Dallas by a game-and-a-half in the NFC East. However, Philadelphia has two games against the 3-10 Washington Commanders and another versus the Las Vegas Raiders. If the Eagles take care of business against teams far lower in the standings and get to 11 wins, there's nothing Dallas can do as it's best hope is a 10-6-1 mark.

Eliminated

12. Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
13. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)
14. New Orleans Saints (3-10)
15. Washington Commanders (3-10)
16. New York Giants (3-10)