2025 CFP Championship Bracket Predictions and Projections Biggest Bowl Matchups

While we still have a long way to go before seeing a finalized College Football Playoff bracket, the latest dominoes fell on Friday night.

Day 1 of Conference Championship Weekend included four games, two of which could have a major impact on the final CFP committee rankings. North Texas, Tulane and James Madison entered the weekend ranked and with at least a reasonable chance of earning a playoff berth via automatic bid.

James Madison and Tulane prevailed, meaning both have a shot at making the playoff. Tulane has the inside track, though the field isn't set just yet.

The five highest-ranked conference champions will earn a spot in the 12-team playoff field. With another day of title-game action yet to unfold, plenty remains at stake.

CFP Rankings Before Championship Weekend

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1. Ohio State

2. Indiana

3. Georgia

4. Texas Tech

5. Oregon

6. Mississippi

7. Texas A&M

8. Oklahoma

9. Alabama

10. Notre Dame

11. BYU

12. Miami

13. Texas

14. Vanderbilt

15. Utah

16. USC

17. Virginia

18. Arizona

19. Michigan

20. Tulane

21. Houston

22. Georgia Tech

23. Iowa

24. North Texas

25. James Madison

Remaining Conference Championship Schedule

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Texas Tech QB Lloyd Jones III

Saturday, December 6

Big 12 Championship

11. BYU vs. 4. Texas Tech at 12 p.m. ET on ABC

Mac Championship

Miami U. vs. Western Michigan at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN

SEC Championship

3. Georgia vs. 9. Alabama at 4 p.m. ET on ABC

Big Ten Championship

1. Ohio State vs. 2. Indiana at 8 p.m. ET on Fox

ACC Championship

Duke vs. 17. Virginia at 8 p.m. ET on ABC

Bracket Scenarios

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Georgia QB Gunner Stockton

While the CFP committee will ultimately determine who gets into the bracket and how teams are seeded, Saturday's slate should make for some relatively easy decisions.

Of the 12 playoff spots, five will automatically go to the five highest-ranked conference champions. Barring some truly wild surprises, three of those will go to the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 champions.

Virginia should claim the fourth automatic bid if it wins the ACC Championship on Saturday evening. That would leave Tulane, the AAC champion, as the final entry.

While five conference champs will earn automatic berths, just like last year, the four first-round byes won't automatically go to conference winners. This is why we could see Indiana and Ohio State both earn byes, even though they'll play each other on Saturday night.

We could also see Oregon slip into the top four if Georgia or Texas Tech falls in their title games.

If the top-ranked teams win all of Saturday's games, we should see BYU and Miami fall out of the bracket to make room for the final two conference champions. Things could get very interesting, however, if BYU upsets Texas Tech and/or if Alabama gets blown out by Georgia.

Texas Tech probably won't fall out of the CFP with a loss, but the committee will have to decide who makes room for BYU if the Cougars win the Big 12. If Alabama wins or keeps it close in that scenario, Notre Dame would probably be out. A blowout loss by the Crimson Tide could leave Alabama out with or without a BYU win.

Miami's best hope of slipping in would likely involve Alabama and BYU both losing by multiple scores.

The CFP committee will also have to determine seeding if there are upsets involving some of the top-ranked teams. However, Oregon, Mississippi, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma should be safe since they're entirely out of action this weekend.

Bracket Projections

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Ohio State QB Julian Sayin

The following bracket projections are based on the current CFP rankings, Friday's results and the potential outcomes of Saturday's games.

Round 1

12. Tulane at 5. Oregon

11. Virginia at 6. Mississippi

10. Alabama at 7. Texas A&M

9. Notre Dame at 8. Oklahoma

Quarterfinals

7. Texas A&M vs. 2. Indiana

5. Oregon vs. 4. Texas Tech

9. Notre Dame vs. 1. Ohio State

6. Mississippi vs. 3. Georgia

Semifinals

5. Oregon vs. 1. Ohio State

3. Georgia vs. 2. Indiana

The prediction here is that we don't see a blowout in the SEC Championship or the Big Ten title game. This should leave the final rankings quite similar to the last set the CFP committee put out, though Alabama might fall behind Notre Dame.

Dropping Alabama to the No. 10 slot would give football fans a terrific meeting between the Crimson Tide and Texas A&M. The two haven't faced off this year, so this would create a fun matchup for fans and guarantee that one of the two marquee programs reaches the quarterfinals and a bowl game.

The committee could leave Alabama at No. 9 with a loss. This would give fans an Alabama-Oklahoma rematch and a Notre Dame-Texas A&M rematch. However, it could also leave open the possibility that Georgia is the only SEC school to reach the quarterfinals.

While no one likes to say it publicly, the CFP is a made-for-television event. Having as many SEC and Big Ten schools as possible alive deep in the postseason would be good for TV.

To that end, we may see Ohio State and Indiana remain in the top two spots if the Big Ten title game is a close one. That would create the opportunity for those two to have their rematch in the CFP championship game.

The predictions made here would also leave three teams from the SEC and three from the Big Ten still standing among the final eight teams. Toss in Notre Dame, and that's a recipe for memorable matchups and ratings gold.