Why CFB Insiders Are Already Comparing 2026 Transfer Portal to NBA Free Agency

As the 2025 college football regular season nears its end, the transfer portal is expected to heat up in a big way.

ESPN's Max Olson reported, "Several general managers, recruiting staffers and agents surveyed by ESPN compared the upcoming first day of portal season to NBA free agency."

This season, the transfer portal window was moved from December 8 to January 2-16. It's expected that players will already be off the board by the time the window opens.

"At 12:01 a.m. on Jan. 2, you're going to see people instantly commit," one agent told Olson. "Deals have to be made ahead of time."

Olson pointed out that a key reason for the expected early commitments is that enrollment deadlines aren't changing, with most universities starting classes on Jan. 12, while multiple Top 25 programs start the week before.

"So over the next six weeks, all this transfer activity is going to occur beneath the surface by necessity," Olson explained. "In fact, many general managers started working on their 2026 roster in early October. The conversations on contract renegotiations for returning players are already well underway."

Of course, these types of dealings raise the possibility of tampering, which occurs when there's improper communication before a player is officially in the transfer portal. Still, teams and players alike will be motivated to get deals done as quickly as possible.

"No school wants to get in trouble," a Big 12 GM reasoned, "so I think it'll be hush-hush until January."

The rising price of recruiting college football stars has also created a new issue for schools to navigate in the new era of revenue sharing.

"I talk to these agents and they discuss the market and they're just lying, saying every player is worth $500,000 and every really good player is worth $1 million," the Big 12 director of player personnel said. "But then you talk to other GMs and they say the same thing. It's ridiculous."

Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule added, "In a world of $30 [million] and $40 million rosters, which isn't going away, I'd like us to do the same thing."

Still, there are programs that remain unwilling to break the bank for high-priced recruits, as Olson noted that some GMs are "telling agents that money is tight right now as they try to stay within their budget." However, agents reportedly "aren't falling for that line."

"There is no f--king cap," one agent said. "The ADs are trying to figure out how to do this, but here's the thing: All it takes is one school not following the rules and taking the best players. It's going to be a free-for-all after that. If a team prioritizes a kid, they're going to find a way to make it work. They're going to pay a guy what he's worth -- if not more -- regardless of the rules if they value him enough."