Way-Too-Soon 2026 NBA MVP Rankings: Is Jokic Inevitable?
Roughly one month into the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the MVP ladder is beginning to take shape.
It might even be crystallizing, given the current performances.
That feels reactionary to say this early in the game, but the individual dominance at the top makes it difficult to imagine many more names party-crashing the race.
Usual suspects abound. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokić is again turning up the heat. Reigning winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is right there with him. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a one-man video game. A lean, mean, healthier Luka Dončić is pretty amazing. Who knew? Victor Wembanyama is proof that interstellar travel happened within our time.
Can anyone else crack the inner circle? That's a good question.
Who would take home MVP honors if the season ended right now? That's another good question, and we're about to answer it.
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
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Luka Dončić's career-best 34.4 points per game have him on track to win his second scoring title. If the return of LeBron James knifes into his bucket-getting, it'll likely result in an efficiency and assist-total bump.
He could use the former from beyond the arc, where he's hovering below 33 percent. And the frequency with which he reaches the rim has never been lower. These might register as red flags if the Los Angeles Lakers weren't dominating the competition during his minutes, or if his 60-plus percent clip on twos wasn't a high watermark.
Holding serve in this discussion won't be easy. Injuries to Victor Wembanyama (calf strain) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin strain) open the door for Dončić' to climb, but he'll also need to fend off the likes of Cade Cunningham, Donovan Mitchell and Alperen Şengün moving forward.
Of the three, Cunningham's case is more compelling, even if only slightly. Şengün is the nerve center of what has thus far been one of the league's top offenses. But Cunningham is working with less overall talent around him and might be the best defender of anyone who's also their team's primary ball-handler.
Next Five: 6. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons; 7. Alperen Şengün, Houston Rockets; 8. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers; 9. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers; 10. Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
4. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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Victor Wembanyama is not scoring as much or dishing out as many assists as his primary competition. That would matter so much more if he wasn't entrenching himself as one of the most impactful defenders of all time.
The San Antonio Spurs rank in the 93rd percentile of points allowed per possession with the Frenchman on the floor. They place in the 23rd percentile when he's off it.
This barely scratches the surface of his value at the less glamorous end. Ditto for the avalanche of highlights. Wemby's greatest skill is deterrence. He doesn't just alter opponents' shots; they go out of their way to avoid him altogether.
Rival offenses see the share of their looks coming at the rim plummet by 11.4 percent during Wemby's floor time. That's the second-biggest swing in the league, trailing only Rudy Gobert (14.8 percent)—who, unlike his compatriot, doesn't shoulder all that much responsibility away from the basket.
By the way, Wemby's offense is pretty darn awesome. He's averaging 26.2 points and 4.0 assists on 60.9 true shooting—all career highs. That his efficiency has climbed while creating more of his own shot attempts is kind of a big deal. So, too, is the Spurs' plus-9.4 net rating during his minutes, which comfortably outstrips what the Lakers are posting (plus-6.0) with Luka Dončić on the hardwood.
The only threat to Wemby's place in this discussion is games played. A left calf strain has him sidelined indefinitely, a development that could influence where he falls next time around.
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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Giannis Antetokounmpo continuing to level up as he nears his 31st birthday defies logic. It makes even less sense considering this is the least talented supporting cast around him, on paper, since…2017(?).
The two-time MVP is averaging 31.2 points and 6.8 assists, both of which would be personal highs, while logging fewer minutes per game. His 63.9 percent clip on twos would be the third best of his career. And although the mid-range jumper isn't falling, he's canned 9-of-18 three-point attempts.
To the Milwaukee Bucks' credit, they have leaned more than ever into spacing around Giannis. He's making the most of it. Over 73 percent of his shots are coming at the rim, the absolute fattest share of his career.
None of this is as impressive as his passing. He is a less predictable decision-maker in transition, more comfortable flinging half-court dimes out of live dribbles and using sleights of hand and sightlines to keep defenses on tilt.
Missing a couple of weeks with a groin strain could kill Giannis' MVP momentum prior to the next ladder. Yet, barring a more extended absence than that, the new heights he's reaching render him a stone-cold top-three lock.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's numbers are virtually indistinguishable from last year, when he took home the Michael Jordan Trophy. He's averaging close to 32 points and seven assists per game while downing more of his twos (59.7 percent) and threes (38.8 percent) than he did in 2024-25.
Churning out more counting stats per minute than last year on the league's best team, while remaining an active participant for the world's most harrowing defense, is a case that writes itself.
However, SGA's credentials become near-unbeatable when factoring in that Jalen Williams, the Oklahoma City Thunder's second-best player, has yet to make his season debut as he recovers from a wrist injury in his shooting hand.
Sure, the team's total domination is a testament to so many driving forces: defense, depth, Chet Holmgren, defense, depth, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, defense, depth, etc.
First and foremost, though, it is a nod to SGA.
The time may come when the Thunder are less reliant on him to power the entire offense. It might even happen this season, once J-Dub is healthy. For the time being, OKC's place atop the standings remains just as tightly tethered to SGA's star power as ever.
1. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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A deeper Denver Nuggets roster was supposed to dilute Nikola Jokić's MVP credentials. He would not lord over this discussion, because he didn't need to.
So much for that.
Denver is, in fact, deeper. But while its net rating when Jokić sits is the highest it's been since 2020-21, it still comes in at minus-6.5.
Even with a more competent supporting cast, the Nuggets are 23.1 points per 100 possessions better with Big Honey on the floor. That is the second-largest swing in the league. And it comes as Jokić is not only averaging a 30-point triple double, but as he's also on pace to post the highest true shooting percentage of anyone to ever clear 20 points per game—a record he already set in 2022-23.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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