What's the Lakers' Realistic Ceiling with a Healthy LeBron James?
LeBron James is nearly ready to begin his NBA record 23rd professional season.
James has been practicing with the G League's South Bay Lakers as part of his recovery from sciatica and could rejoin Los Angeles as early as next week. The Lakers are off to an impressive 8-4 start without James, especially considering that both Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves have missed time due to injuries as well.
When James returns, however, this is a far different Lakers team than he last suited up for in April.
Dončić is leading the NBA with 34.9 points per game. Reaves now looks like an All-Star and is top-10 in both scoring (28.3 points) and assists (8.3). Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia have all been added to the starting lineup/rotation.
With an encouraging start to the year, does James really make the Lakers a true title contender? How does the nearly 41-year-old fit into a new-look roster? What should Los Angeles do at the trade deadline to build around James, or does moving the four-time MVP for better pieces around Dončić make more sense?
Where do Lakers Need LeBron the Most?
Despite their 8-4 record, the Lakers haven't actually been that good.
A net rating of minus-1.6 ranks 21st overall between the 4-7 Charlotte Hornets and 4-8 Utah Jazz.
Even with Dončić and Reaves ranking near the top of the league in scoring and assists, the Lakers' offense is just 17th overall (114.9 rating) and ranks in the bottom third in three-point accuracy (33.7 percent, 22nd overall) and makes per game (10.8, 28th overall). Only the Orlando Magic and injury-plagued Dallas Mavericks have been worse.
James can still bring a ton to the table on offense, but don't expect a 40-year-old who's been battling sciatica to be slapping the floor and getting after it defensively every night. We haven't seen James give consistent defensive effort in the regular season since his Miami Heat days, as he's typically in conservation mode for a playoff run.
This should easily be a top-10 offense once James enters the fold, although the Lakers allowed 4.1 more points per 100 possessions with him in the game last season (18th percentile, via Cleaning the Glass). Don't expect that number to improve.
What Does the Lakers Starting Five Look Like with LeBron?
James is obviously going to start for the Lakers in his return, so who gets moved to the bench? Dončić, Reaves, Ayton and Rui Hachimura are the only four players who have started every game thus far, with Smart and LaRavia splitting the majority of the time as the fifth.
Dončić and James are locked in. Ayton isn't a great fit with either, but he's by far the best center the Lakers have. Reaves would get the ball in his hands more as a sixth man, but he's simply been too good to go back to a bench role at this point.
The best fit for this group is a 3-and-D wing who doesn't need plays run for him, can space the floor and guard multiple positions. Unfortunately, such a player doesn't exist on this current Lakers roster.
Hachimura brings the floor spacing (51.1 percent from three) but isn't an elite defender. Smart has more defensive versatility, yet is far removed from the player he was a few years ago and has only shot 26.2 percent from deep. LaRavia is solid on both ends but is better suited to defend forwards than guards.
Head coach JJ Redick will likely experiment with all three at times as the fifth starter alongside James, Dončić, Reaves and Ayton. The Lakers should be eyeing an upgrade at the deadline.
Is this Lakers Team Title-Ready with LeBron?
The Lakers have a pair of 20-plus point losses in their last three games, including a measuring stick contest with the Oklahoma City Thunder that should have been a real humbling experience.
In the East, these Lakers would be in second place and look like a Finals contender. In a bloodbath of a West, however, Los Angeles still has a long way to go.
Every team will be measured against the Thunder, the defending champs who beat LA 121-92 while holding Dončić to a season-low 19 points even without Jalen Williams and Lu Dort, the team's two best perimeter defenders.
OKC isn't the only threat, of course, as the Denver Nuggets (9-2), Houston Rockets (NBA's best offense), San Antonio Spurs (Victor Wembanyama) and Minnesota Timberwolves (back-to-back West Finals appearances) aren't going anywhere.
A fool's gold record is only going to become more misleading when eyeing the Lakers' upcoming schedule, as six of their next seven games come against teams with a losing record.
We could easily see Los Angeles start the season 14-5 overall with a return from James and think this is a team ready to compete for a title, when in reality there are too many holes (defense, three-point shooting, etc.) to ignore.
What Should the Lakers Do at the Trade Deadline?
As previously mentioned, the Lakers need a 3-and-D wing if they want to optimize their starting lineup with James. This doesn't need to be a star, but rather someone in the Herb Jones/Royce O'Neale/Matisse Thybulle mold.
Adding role players who can hit open shots and defend while trying to match OKC's depth should be the goal.
Of course, there's still a chance this season goes south and the Lakers need to make a difficult decision on James, who becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Letting a player of his magnitude, even at this stage in his career, walk for nothing simply isn't good business. James can be traded, but only with his approval.
Constructing a trade for James will be difficult given his $52.6 million salary, especially in this new apron world. The Golden State Warriors have shown interest in the past. The New York Knicks could easily match salaries. The Miami Heat need an alpha.
As unlikely as it may be, what about a James-Anthony Davis swap?
With Nico Harrison out in Dallas, the Mavericks are far more likely to turn around and trade the veteran big man, and the Lakers should have real interest in bringing Davis back to be their defensive anchor. The 10-time All-Star should be thrilled with a return to Los Angeles and wouldn't have to play center with Ayton in town.
James would get to reunite with Kyrie Irving for the final stage of his career and play under Jason Kidd, his former USA Basketball Olympic teammate and assistant coach with the Lakers. The chance to join forces with an old nemesis in Klay Thompson and fellow No. 1 overall pick in Cooper Flagg should be enticing to James as well.
For now, the best choice for the Lakers (and James) is to see how the league's all-time leading scorer fits with this current roster while looking to add some 3-and-D wings.
This simply isn't a title-worthy group given the talent at the top of the West. All parties should keep an open mind as we get closer to the trade deadline.
