UFC 322 Main Card Staff Predictions

The UFC always pulls out all the stops for its annual visits to New York City, and this Saturday's UFC 322 card is no exception.

In the main event, former lightweight champion and long-time pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev will make his anticipated move up to welterweight, where he will challenge Aussie champion Jack Della Maddalena in a bid for a second title. It is easily one of the biggest fights of the year.

The same can be said for the co-main event, which will have similarly high stakes, as flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko defends her belt against former strawweight queen Zhang Weili in a clash of the two top pound-for-pound fighters in women's MMA.

Before we get to the title fights, we'll be treated to a pair of high-stakes showdowns at welterweight, as former champ Leon Edwards takes on rising knockout artist Carlos Prates, and Sean Brady takes on Michael Morales in a possible No. 1 contender fight.

As if all of that wasn't enough, the main card will be kicked off by a fantastic lightweight matchup, with veteran contender Beneil Dariush taking on fearsome Frenchman Benoit Saint Denis.

Here's how the B/R combat sports squad sees it all going down in The Big Apple.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: I see this matchup the same way pretty much everybody does: I expect Jack Della Maddalena to have an advantage on the feet, and Makhachev to have an even greater advantage on the mat. In other words, it will probably come down to Della Maddalena's defensive grappling.

Della Maddalena is a pretty interesting case in defensive grappling. He doesn't offer a ton of resistance when it comes to stopping takedowns—certainly not the way Jose Aldo or BJ Penn used to—but he is an excellent scrambler with a knack for getting back to his feet. So, the question is not just whether Makhachev can get the welterweight champ down, but also whether he can keep him there. 

I see Makhachev landing some takedowns early, but I think JDM will manage to get back to his feet each time and gain confidence in the process.

A prolonged kickboxing match definitely doesn't discount a Makhachev win—he's knocked people out before—but I don't think it will go for him. He had some trouble with Dustin Poirier on the feet, and Della Maddalena is bigger, faster, and stronger than The Diamond.

In my crystal ball, Della Maddalena shocks the world with a late TKO or a competitive decision. I'll give Makhachev the benefit of the doubt and go with the latter.

Prediction: Della Maddalena by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I want to believe Della Maddalena is the real deal and can withstand what'll surely be constant pressure from a guy like Makhachev. But I just can't.

He was taken down three times by Belal Muhammad on the way to winning the belt, and it stands to reason the ex-lightweight king will be an even more daunting challenge.

Maybe he lands a shot to dissuade Islam, or maybe he simply keeps himself off the floor, because if not, he's liable to get steamrolled. The good news? It sets up a great match with Ilia Topuria.

Prediction: Makhachev by unanimous decision

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili

Saeed KHAN / AFP

Tom Taylor: I have been calling for the UFC to make this fight for years, and I'm so excited it's finally happening. It is easily one of the highest-level women's matchups we've seen in MMA, and I expect it to be a tense and technical affair for as long as it lasts. 

As for the result, that's very hard to say. Skill-for-skill, I'd still give the defending flyweight champ Valentina Shevchenko a slight edge. However, she's been showing faint signs of decline over the last few years—no surprise given her long career—while Zhang Weili has never looked better than in her most recent fights.

I see Zhang becoming a two-division champion by the slimmest of margins in a highly technical fight that showcases every weapon in the MMA arsenal. 

Prediction: Zhang by decision 

Lyle Fitzsimmons: I like Shevchenko a lot. She's an all-timer, and her recovery to regain her belt and cement her rivalry with Alexa Grasso was a sign of her greatness.

And I was there to see Zhang get dusted by Rose Namajunas, so I know she can be beaten. But she feels like the one who's trending up.

Even climbing a division, she's impossibly strong and durable, and I get the feeling her competitiveness alone will be too much for Bullet to deal with. There's an excellent chance I'm wrong and Shevchenko schools her, but call it a hunch.

Prediction: Zhang by split decision

Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: Michael Morales has looked incredible since joining the UFC, but Sean Brady strikes me as one of the worst possible matchups for him. 

Granted, Morales hasn't had that many opportunities to show off his takedown defence—he's typically too busy knocking people out for that—but Brady is as suffocating a grappler as you'll find at 170 pounds.

I see the American getting this one to the ground quickly, and after pummelling Morales for a round or two, locking up a choke for the win. 

Prediction: Brady by submission, Rd. 3

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Morales is on an 18-fight heater, and it's hard to argue against that, but I'll try. His career-defining moments have come against the senior division of the welterweights, namely a 37-year-old Neil Magny and a 38-year-old Gilbert Burns.

Those wins were impressive, and he did what he was supposed to do with those foes, but Brady represents a significant step up. He's coming off a thrashing of a guy just a fight removed from the 170-pound championship, and it wasn't a close contest.

Morales has to prove he belongs. 

Prediction: Brady by submission, Rd. 3

Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tom Taylor: This one really comes down to how much Leon Edwards has left in the tank. The former welterweight champ looked pretty awful in his recent losses to Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad, and if those performances are indicative that his career is winding down, he's probably going to get knocked out by Carlos Prates.

On the other hand, if Edwards is still close to top form, he should be able to beat Prates much the same way Ian Garry did earlier this year: with a blend of volume striking and well-timed takedowns. 

I'm not ready to write Edwards off yet. He's still good enough to win a decision over Prates, who will run out of options when the early knockout doesn't materialize. 

Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Speaking of that former champion Brady beat, he's in tough himself against a red-hot Brazilian in Prates, who's lost just once since 2019.

Meanwhile, Edwards has not only lost two in a row to Muhammad and Brady, but he's also looked pretty lifeless in doing so. He's probably got more all-around skill than Prates, but if the mettle is lacking at all, he'll be in trouble.

Call it a referendum for the guy who ended the Kamaru Usman era, and it says here that he takes a career-defining stand.

Prediction: Edwards by unanimous decision 

Beneil Dariush vs. Benoit Saint-Denis

JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP

Tom Taylor: It's hard to feel a lot of confidence in Benoit Saint-Denis these days. His recent wins over Mauricio Ruffy and Kyle Prepolec were very impressive, but his stoppage losses to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano are difficult to forget.

The latter was especially concerning, as the Frenchman offered basically no resistance against a middling contender at best.  

Having said that, I have even less confidence in Beneil Dariush right now. He's been one of the best lightweights in the sport for much of the last 10 years, but he's been speaking more and more often about retirement. To me, that is always a red flag. 

In a contest between two well-rounded fighters with similar skill sets, give me the guy who's still laser-focused on the title over the guy with one foot out the door. 

Prediction: Saint-Denis by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: Take your pick here. Dariush was dusted inside a round in two of his last three fights, albeit against a former champ in Charles Oliveira and a highly regarded contender in Arman Tsarukyan.

Meanwhile, Saint-Denis was riding high before Poirier got to him, and he followed it up with a loss to Renato Moicano, whom Dariush handled in his most recent fight.

So, I'll flip a figurative and lean into Saint-Denis based on the hunch that his highest end—if it still exists—is higher than his opponent's.

Prediction: Saint-Denis by TKO, Rd. 2