Previewing and Predicting How MLB Free-Agent Starting Pitching Market Will Shake Out
As is the case in every Major League Baseball offseason, more than half of the league will be looking to upgrade some part of its starting rotation.
The good news for those teams is that there are plenty of arms available in free agency, including several who could become the ace of a new staff.
We won't cover every single starting pitcher available this offseason, but a "top" 30 makes sense, yeah? That's theoretically one per team, though no one actually expects all 30 teams to be in the mix for a top 30 pitcher.
Most of them will be broken up into tiers before spending a bit more time on the top four who could be Opening Day starters for contenders in 2026.
International Men of Mystery
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We'll highlight Japanese star Tatsuya Imai later on as one of the top arms available this winter, but there are several other potential impact arms from overseas worth knowing about.
Foster Griffin, LHP, 30 years old, Yomiuri Giants (Japan)
A first-round pick in 2014, Griffin had Tommy John surgery after his first MLB appearance in 2020 and made it back to the bigs for a few innings in 2022 before relocating to Japan and finally getting a chance to shine. He has posted a 2.50 ERA in 371.1 IP over the past three years and could be a sneaky-good option as a No. 4 starter.
Prediction: One year, $6M with Houston Astros
Cody Ponce, RHP, 31 years old, Hanwha Eagles (South Korea)
Much like Griffin, Ponce was a budding prospect who maybe got rushed a bit to the majors in 2020 when there was no minor league baseball. He ended up giving the Pirates a 5.86 ERA in 55.1 innings of work between 2020 and 2021, but he was a force of nature this past season in South Korea, logging 180.2 innings with a 1.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 12.6 K/9. He may well be this year's version of Erick Fedde, who had a nearly identical pitching line in the same country in 2023.
Prediction: One year, $5M with San Diego Padres
Kona Takahashi, RHP, 28 years old, Seibu Lions (Japan)
After 11 seasons with the Seibu Lions, Takahashi is expected to be posted as an MLB free agent in the coming weeks. He doesn't generate many strikeouts (5.4 K/9 in 24 starts in 2025), but he does keep the ball in the yard better than most, resulting in a 2.67 ERA over the past four years. Could be a "10 years ago, right-handed Wade Miley" type of back-of-the-rotation starter for a contender.
Prediction: Two years, $12M with Texas Rangers
The Reclamation Projects
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All of these pitchers are entering their age-33 or younger season, used to be reasonably hot commodities and might be obtainable for pennies on the dollar after a 2025 campaign that was wholly forgettable either due to poor performance or injury.
Nestor Cortes, 30, LHP
34.1 IP, 6.29 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
Cortes only made eight starts in 2025, most of which were not great. But he did twice go six scoreless innings with just one hit allowed, including a gem against the Dodgers in late August that temporarily pushed the Padres into first place in the NL West. After undergoing surgery to repair a tendon tear in his throwing arm, though, he's probably going to miss most of 2026 and may have to settle for something like the "$1M with a $6M club option for a second season" contract that John Means signed with Cleveland in February.
Prediction: One year, $2M with Milwaukee Brewers (with a $10M club option for 2027)
Zach Eflin, 31, RHP
71.1 IP, 5.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
In the first two seasons of his three-year, $40 million deal, Eflin had a 3.54 ERA and missed only a handful of starts. He even received a decent number of AL Cy Young votes in 2023. But he battled multiple injuries this past season, taking only 14 turns through the rotation. He did have six quality starts among those 14 outings, but when things went poorly, they really went poorly.
Prediction: One year, $10M with Baltimore Orioles
Germán Márquez, 30, RHP
126.1 IP, 6.70 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 5.9 K/9
After a decade-long run with the Rockies in which he became the franchise's all-time leader in strikeouts (1,069), Márquez might finally be getting away from making home starts at Coors Field. Does he have anything left in the tank, though? He missed basically all of both 2023 and 2024 to Tommy John surgery, and he had a 7.32 ERA in his 15 starts on the road in 2025.
Prediction: One year, $6M with Chicago White Sox
Dustin May, 28, RHP
132.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 8.4 K/9
May is to this offseason's class of free agents what Mike Soroka was one year ago: not particularly effective on the mound, but an intriguing buy-low candidate after logging more innings pitched than he was able to manage in the previous four years combined. Wouldn't be the least bit surprising if it's the Washington Nationals once again taking something like a $9 million flyer again. (Soroka is also available again this winter, by the way, and is only a month older than May.)
Prediction: One year, $9M with Washington Nationals
Jordan Montgomery, 32, LHP
DNP (Tommy John surgery)
News of Monty needing a second TJ surgery broke just days before the 2025 campaign began, which means he's probably going to miss a significant chunk of 2026. But someone will probably take a shot on him with a contract similar to what Shane Bieber signed last winter ($10M with a $16M player option for a second season) when he was at the same point in his TJ recovery.
Prediction: One year, $6M with Boston Red Sox (with a $14M player option for 2027)
The Oldies But Still Goodies
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Each pitcher in this tier will be at least 37 years old by Opening Day and is unlikely to fetch a multi-year deal in light of that fact. But any of the five would be a welcome addition as a No. 4 (or better) starter in a contender's rotation.
Chris Bassitt, 37, RHP
170.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Along with Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Kevin Gausman, Bassitt is one of just four pitchers who logged at least 170 innings pitched in each of the past four seasons. But is it possible the 2025 postseason was the beginning of a John Smoltz-like late-career transformation into a dominant reliever? He was almost untouchable when facing just 3-6 batters per outing.
Prediction: One year, $13M with Athletics
Merrill Kelly, 37, RHP
184.0 IP, 3.52 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
Because he was already 30 by the time he made his MLB debut, Kelly is hitting free agency for the first time in his career. And of this bunch, he might be the likeliest to sign a two-year deal, showing no signs whatsoever of slowing down yet. He was a bit banged up in 2024, but he bounced back with a dynamite first four months of 2025 with the Diamondbacks.
Prediction: One year, $12M with Arizona Diamondbacks
Jose Quintana, 37, LHP
131.2 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
After a bit of a late start to the year, Quintana played a key role as the veteran of Milwaukee's staff, winning 11 games and making eight quality starts. He now has a 3.53 ERA in 543.1 innings pitched over the past four years, on par with both Ranger Suárez (3.59 ERA in 588.1 IP) and Seth Lugo (3.51 ERA in 563.1 IP).
Prediction: One year, $6M with Cleveland Guardians
Max Scherzer, 41, RHP
85.0 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
After allowing 25 earned runs in his final 25 innings of the regular season and getting left off Toronto's ALDS roster, it felt like we might have seen the last of Scherzer. But in three starts between the ALCS and World Series, we were treated to some snippets of vintage Mad Max, who said after the Game 7 loss that he doesn't plan on retiring. Injuries have limited his workload in recent years, so a sixth starter will be a must wherever he lands.
Prediction: One year, $10M with Toronto Blue Jays
Justin Verlander, 43, RHP
152.0 IP, 3.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
Randy Johnson pitched until he was 46. Roger Clemens made it to 45. And though Verlander turns 43 in February, he was still looking mighty spry toward the end of this past season, tallying a 2.60 ERA over his final 13 starts while eclipsing 3,500 career strikeouts.
Prediction: One year, $12M with San Francisco Giants
An Octet of Viable No. 3 Starters
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Tyler Anderson, 36, LHP
136.1 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 6.9 K/9
Over the duration of his three-year, $39 million deal with the Angels, Anderson had a 4.53 ERA and a 5.02 FIP. Not great, but he had some solid stretches, including being named an All-Star in 2024 and pitching well for the first couple months of this past season.
Prediction: One year, $8M with Washington Nationals
Aaron Civale, 30, RHP
102.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.8 K/9
Civale was kicked around the Midwest in 2025, going from the Brewers to the White Sox to the Cubs. And the third time was the charm, as he had a 2.08 ERA in five bulk relief appearances with the Cubs before going 4.1 scoreless innings in his lone appearance of the postseason. Small sample size, but hard to argue with a strong finish.
Prediction: Two years, $18M with Detroit Tigers
Adrian Houser, 33, RHP
125.0 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Take out the incredible 11-start run with the White Sox prior to the trade deadline and Houser has a 4.77 ERA over the past four seasons. But that was one heck of a breakout stretch and some team is going to convince itself it/he can recapture that lightning in a bottle.
Prediction: One year, $9M with Houston Astros
Zack Littell, 30, RHP
186.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Since becoming a full-time starter midway through the 2023 campaign, Littell has been quietly solid, making 75 starts with a 3.67 ERA—on par with Nick Pivetta (3.70 ERA in 73 starts) and Pablo López (3.67 ERA in 78 starts). He also just turned 30 in October and is the pitcher from this tier who presents the best case for moving up to the "No. 2 options" level. Could end up being one of the biggest steals of the offseason.
Prediction: Three years, $40M with St. Louis Cardinals
Michael Lorenzen, 34, RHP
141.2 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
Lorenzen had some uncommonly rough luck in the BABIP department in 2025 while also allowing home runs at the highest rate of his career. It was a brutal combination that kept him from ever getting into a multi-start groove, but he did have some occasional gems, going at least seven innings on four occasions.
Prediction: One year, $7.5M with Athletics
Tyler Mahle, 31, RHP
86.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9
Mahle has a 2.66 ERA over the past three seasons, but that also encompasses just 24 starts, missing most of both 2023 and 2024 following Tommy John surgery and missing half of 2025 with a rotator cuff strain. He's a fringe ace when healthy, but that has become one of the most unreliable "when healthy" asterisks in all of baseball.
Prediction: Two years, $30M with Atlanta Braves ($13M in 2026 with a $17M club option or $4M buyout for 2027)
Nick Martinez, 35, RHP
165.2 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Martinez has been treated like more of a No. 5.5 starter than a No. 3 starter, bouncing back and forth between the rotation and a bulk relief role. But he has a 3.67 ERA between his 61 starts and 131 relief appearances over the past four seasons. He made more starts in 2025 (26) than ever before, though.
Prediction: Two years, $28M with San Diego Padres
Martín Pérez, 35, LHP
56.0 IP, 3.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.1 K/9
Pérez missed about two-thirds of this past season, but put up numbers on par with what he gave the Padres in 10 starts after the 2024 trade deadline. And it wasn't exactly forever ago that he was an All-Star with the Rangers in 2022. He could be a No. 2 starter in a reunion with the White Sox, but would probably be more of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter if he went across town to the Cubs.
Prediction: One year, $9M with Chicago White Sox
A Quintet of No. 2 Options
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Zac Gallen, 30, RHP
192.0 IP, 4.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
Gallen picked a rough time to have the worst season of his career in terms of ERA, FIP, HR% and K%. He did at least finish reasonably well with a 3.32 ERA and eight quality starts between August and September, but he still wasn't anything close to the swing-and-miss Cy Young candidate that he used to be.
If there wasn't a possible lockout looming next winter, Gallen would be a reasonably strong candidate to just stick with Arizona on the one-year qualifying offer and try his luck again next winter after what ideally will be a bounce-back year. But he'll probably decline it in hopes of a five-year deal worth close to nine figures.
Prediction: Four years, $86M with Los Angeles Angels
Lucas Giolito, 31, RHP
145.0 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.5 K/9
Speaking of guys who were nowhere near the swing-and-miss Cy Young candidates they used to be, Giolito struck out 28.3 percent of batters faced from 2019-23 before missing all of 2024 and posting a 19.7 K% in 2025.
But while he was much less of a strikeout machine, he was arguably a better pitcher than ever before, posting a 2.51 ERA over his final 19 starts while playing a major role in Boston's postseason push. Can he keep it going on a multi-year deal? Or is he destined for some serious regression in the home run department—9.3% HR/FB in 2025 compared to a career rate of 14.3%?
Prediction: Two years, $35M with San Francisco Giants
Shota Imanaga, 32, LHP
144.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 7.3 K/9
Another "speaking of" transition here, as the home run ball was Imanaga's major bugaboo in 2025. Such is life, though, for a fly ball pitcher, and he induced ground balls at the lowest rate of any pitcher who logged at least 100 innings this past season.
He also had one of the lowest walk rates in all of baseball, though, so at least he doesn't compound the errors in that regard, as evidenced by that sub-1.00 WHIP.
Teams who play their home games at launching pads will probably keep their distance, but those with more cavernous venues should be intrigued here.
Prediction: Two years, $38M with Texas Rangers
Michael King, 30, RHP
73.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.3 K/9
Is he durable enough?
That's the upwards of $100 million question that teams have to grapple with in their negotiations with Michael King this winter.
Among pitchers who have logged at least 400 innings pitched since the beginning of 2022, his 2.91 ERA ranks fifth-best in the majors. But in those four years, he has logged less than half as many innings as Logan Webb and only outlasted Clayton Kershaw by a margin of two innings.
He could be an ace if he stays healthy. But betting on him staying healthy could end disastrously. (Which is true for any starting pitcher these days, but it's a pertinent reminder here.)
Prediction: Three years, $69M with Chicago Cubs
Brandon Woodruff, 33, RHP
64.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 11.6 K/9
At least King has made it to 400 IP over the past four years. Woodruff isn't even at 300 IP since the start of 2022 and is more than two years older than King as it is. But he does have a remarkable 2.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.0 K/9 to show for the time that he has been healthy enough to take the mound.
After a season in which guys like Matt Boyd, Jeffrey Springs and Jacob deGrom held up better than ever, though, could there be teams more willing to invest in pitchers with injury asterisks than in years gone by?
If he doesn't take the qualifying offer to stay in Milwaukee, it would make sense for him to land with a deep-pocketed team that is willing to gamble on upgrading what is already a good stockpile of candidates for its starting rotation.
Prediction: Three years, $60M with New York Mets
Ace No. 4: Tatsuya Imai, 27, RHP
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2025 (with Seibu Lions): 163.2 IP, 1.92 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
Career (2017-25): 1,077.2 IP, 3.07 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7 K/9
Right off the bat here, let's issue a reminder that there is a considerable posting fee attached to players from Nippon Professional Baseball with nine years of experience or fewer, which includes Tatsuya Imai. That fee is a percentage of the total value of the contract, amounting to 20 percent of the first $25 million, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million and 15 percent of everything above and beyond that.
For example, when the Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325 million deal two years ago, they also had to pay the Orix Buffaloes $50.625 million on top of that. And if Imai were to sign a $150 million contract, it would actually be a $174.375 million investment by that team once you factor in the posting fee.
The financial freedom to simply not care about paying that 15-20 percent "tax" is a big reason the NPB-to-LAD pipeline has been so strong in recent years. But with no real need to add starting pitchers this winter, will Imai actually land somewhere other than the Dodgers?
Since the beginning of 2022, Imai has logged 574.1 innings pitched with a 2.21 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.6 K/9.
Those are incredible marks by MLB standards, but life in NPB is generally more pitcher friendly. At any rate, those numbers pale in comparison to Yamamoto's final four seasons with Orix (684.1 IP, 1.57 ERA and 0.89 WHIP). And though Imai is the youngest arm of note available this winter, he's already a couple years older than Yamamoto was when he signed his contract. So, we're not expecting a repeat of that 12-year, $325 million megadeal.
A nine-figure deal (before even factoring in the posting fee) is definitely on the table, though, as Imai is easily one of the six most coveted arms available this winter, possibly even the No. 1 target atop a number of big boards.
Prediction: Five years, $110M with New York Mets
Ace No. 3: Ranger Suarez, 30, LHP
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2025 (with Philadelphia Phillies): 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.6 K/9
Career (2018-25): 762.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.3 K/9
One inescapable truth when contemplating making a hefty investment in Ranger Suárez to be an ace or co-ace for the next half-decade or more is that he has never logged enough innings pitched in a single season to qualify for an ERA title.
He has come close on several occasions and has averaged a respectable 147.0 IP per season over the past four years. As far as injury concerns go, he's certainly no Brandon Woodruff.
But it is noteworthy/troubling that while he has never dealt with a particularly major injury, Suárez has retired just one more batter since the beginning of 2022 (588.1 IP) than Sandy Alcantara (588.0 IP), who missed the final few weeks of 2023 and the entire 2024 season to Tommy John surgery.
That has nothing to do with when he used to be a swing man and occasional closer, either. Suárez's last relief appearance came in 2021. He just seems to miss a handful of starts every year.
However, the teams that aren't too bothered by that could be getting a real asset. Suárez is almost certainly one of the 10 most valuable southpaws in the game today and arguably a top 25 pitcher overall. There seems to be a month or two of every season in which he's simply untouchable. And he comes with quite the postseason pedigree, boasting a 1.48 ERA in 42.2 career innings pitched in the playoffs.
Prediction: Five years, $115M with Chicago Cubs
Ace No. 2: Dylan Cease, 30, RHP
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2025 (with San Diego Padres): 168.0 IP, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
Career (2019-25): 1,015.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 10.9 K/9
Teams searching for "never misses a start" durability atop their rotation ought to look no further than Dylan Cease, who hasn't missed a turn through the rotation since the final week of the 2019 campaign.
His 174 starts since the beginning of 2020 is the highest mark in the majors, four ahead of José Berríos in second place.
Cease has also racked up 51 more strikeouts and 44 more walks than any other pitcher over the past six seasons, and the regularity of those lengthy ABs has prevented him from becoming anything close to one of those old school innings-eating aces like Logan Webb, Framber Valdez or Sandy Alcantara.
In fact, Cease has recorded a quality start in just 66 of those 174 appearances, which is slightly less than 38 percent. Even Austin Gomber (43 of 113) is north of 38 percent, and he has a 5.15 ERA to show for it.
Of course, averaging around 16-17 outs per start and having a well-documented history of injuries did nothing to prevent Blake Snell from getting a five-year, $182 million deal last winter.
The fact that it often takes Cease more than 90 pitches to make it through five innings of otherwise solid work isn't likely to scare anyone away here, either—especially if it's a team like Boston or San Francisco that already has an ace who frequently goes seven innings.
Prediction: Six years, $168M with Boston Red Sox
Ace No. 1: Framber Valdez, 32, LHP
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2025 (with Houston Astros): 192.0 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
Career (2018-25): 1,080.2 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.8 K/9
The tail end of Framber Valdez's eight-year run with Houston got pretty ugly. Not only did he have a 6.05 ERA in August and September while the Astros crashed and burned their way from a five-game lead in the AL West to missing the postseason, but there was also that viral incident where it sure looked like he intentionally crossed up his own catcher.
On the statistics side of things, that rough 10-game stretch in what has otherwise been a mighty impressive career isn't likely to impact his market. Valdez had a 2.62 ERA through the end of July and was well on his way to a fourth consecutive year receiving Cy Young votes. Even all-time greats have occasional cold spells, and he still managed to become the only pitcher in 2025 with multiple complete games (two) and at least 15 quality starts (20).
If teams believe that cross up was intentional, though, how might the "clubhouse presence" side of things impact the market for a guy whose arm ought to be worth around what Corbin Burnes (six years, $210M) and Max Fried (eight years, $218M) got last winter?
We'll assume for now that it won't change anything, and that if he doesn't fetch a six-year deal in the vicinity of $200 million, it's more so because he turns 32 in a few days than a product of questions about what kind of teammate he'll be.
Since the beginning of 2021, only Zack Wheeler (99) and Logan Webb (99) have tallied more quality starts than Valdez's 96. Only Sandy Alcantara (10) has more complete games than Valdez's nine. And no one has more wins than Valdez's 68.
He should be the cream of this year's crop of free-agent pitchers. And just like Burnes surprised everyone last winter by signing with Arizona, perhaps Valdez winds up in an unexpected new home.
Prediction: Six years, $200M with Baltimore Orioles
