Dallas Mavericks Are Getting Deron Williams in the Fold at the Perfect Time

Deron Williams is finally a member of the Dallas Mavericks. After reaching a buy-out agreement with the Brooklyn Nets, the 31-year-old point guard signed a two-year, $10 million deal with Dallas.

The Mavericks made a hard push to sign Williams three years ago, when he was an unrestricted free agent and at the top of his game. Instead, Williams decided to return to Brooklyn. He is a shadow of the player he was the last time Dallas tried to acquire, but the team dodged the bullet of paying him enormous sums of money while his game quickly declined.

A 2014 study at Forbes found that the average Win Share (a measure of production for Basketball-Reference) costs about $1.65 million. Over the past three seasons, Williams produced 19.9 Win Shares for Brooklyn—or about $33 million in value by Forbes' calculation. The Nets paid him just over $55 million for those three seasons and will pay him approximately $30 million not to play for them anymore.

That could easily have been $52 million of the Mavericks' money being flushed down the drain.

But the past is in the past. For all he's lost, Williams is still a useful player. He was raised in Dallas, and coming home, at this moment in time, seems like a good fit for both him and the Mavericks.

At this point in his career, Williams doesn't have much to offer at the defensive end. He's passable at best, relying on strength and size to muscle guards in the pick-and-roll. His appeal to the Mavericks is almost all about his offense.

A quick look at his shot chart from last season shows that most of his value comes as a three-point shooter.

http://austinclemens.com/shotcharts

Williams was once a dynamic penetrator, able to break down a defense and create shots for himself and his teammates. Injuries and age have taken their toll, and he just doesn't have that dynamism anymore. Last season, his assist percentage was 33.7 percent—the third-lowest of his 11-year career. He made just 45.7 percent of his shots within three feet of the basket, a career low by far and one of the reasons his overall field goal percentage was the worst of his career. 

We can also see the decline in his off-the-dribble game with some of the NBA's unique play-type statistics. Williams scored just 0.72 points per possession as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll last year, placing him in the 40th percentile in the league. He scored 0.71 points per possession on isolations, good for the league's 31st percentile. That puts him on the low end of the spectrum for a starting point guard.

While that portion of his offensive game has declined dramatically, there are still a few things he does extremely well. The first, as was highlighted in the shot chart, is shoot from the outside. According to the NBA's play type statistics, Williams averaged 1.10 points per possession on spot-ups last season, which puts him in the 81st percentile.

Bobby Karalla of Mavs Outsider Report dug a little deeper into Williams' outside shooting:

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Williams, meanwhile, soars above most other guards. He connected on 42.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot three-point attempts last season, good for 14th best among the top-100. That's a terrific rate, obviously, especially in Brooklyn's poorly spaced offensive system. Williams was often asked to create in that offense alongside or instead of Joe Johnson, but spot-up shooting was what he was best at. He'll likely do plenty of that in Dallas in addition to his normal facilitating duties.

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The Mavericks did not get great outside shooting from their backcourt last season. Williams and Wesley Matthews, another offseason addition, should be a dramatic improvement.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

The other interesting offensive possibility is having Williams work out of the low post. This was a bigger part of his arsenal a few years ago with the Utah Jazz. But opportunities to work in that area of the floor were few and far between in Brooklyn, playing with other low-post threats like Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez. 

Williams used just 37 possessions in post-up situations last season. However, he averaged 1.05 points per possession, placing him in the 91st percentile, according to NBA.com. Posting Williams is likely not going to be a pillar of the Mavericks offense, but against the right matchup it can be a tool for scoring efficiently and bending the defense. His considerable size for a point guard means he often has an advantage here.

Zach Lowe recently took a deep dive at Grantland into the rebirth of the post-up. At one point, he focused specifically on the value of guards exploiting mismatches in the post, saying, "Guards who can post up are especially valuable because they are natural passers. Smart post passing is a necessity now that defenses can bait post-up threats with all kinds of tricky help coverages." 

Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle is well known for his willingness to get creative on offense, using unconventional sets to make sure his players are in a position to succeed. Carlisle appears to be excited about working with Williams, telling ESPN, "I'm a longtime fan. When this situation popped up, it was almost like it was too good to be true. He's a tremendous player, and he's coming home."

Williams may not be an ideal fit to be featured in the pick-and-roll-heavy attack Dallas has used the past few years. However, his shooting, passing and post-up abilities offer some recompense.

Another wrinkle is that Williams has the size to defend some shooting guards. This means it would be possible to play him alongside J.J. Barea or Devin Harris—two ball-handlers who are much more efficient in the pick-and-roll. It all depends on the defensive matchups, but allowing Williams to spot up and work as a secondary ball-handler could help him find the offensive efficiency that has eluded him the past few seasons in Brooklyn.

In the grand scheme, this was a disappointing offseason for the Mavericks. The DeAndre Jordan debacle left them scrambling, and the additions of Williams, Matthews and Zaza Pachulia are not taking them back to the top of the Western Conference. Still, Williams can help them stay competitive, ready to make another move if an opportunity presents itself. 

At the very least, Dallas can feel good about getting Deron Williams now, at a reasonable price, instead of paying him more than $50 million to watch him slide out of his prime.