MMA's Biggest Storylines Heading into Second Half of 2015
Whew.
The first six months of 2015 brought upheaval to MMA on several fronts. Ronda Rousey continues to permeate the mainstream sports consciousness in unprecedented ways. UFC and parent company Zuffa unveiled its comprehensive and formidable new drug-testing program, not to mention that spicy little sponsorship deal with Reebok.
Even more recently, you had UFC 189, only one of the best MMA cards ever held. At the top of that card, Conor McGregor cemented himself as the sport's biggest non-Rousey star by defeating Chad Mendes for the interim featherweight title. And that's to say nothing of Robbie Lawler vs. Rory MacDonald, the stirring-to-the-point-of-disturbing Fight of the Year, at least at this point in the clubhouse.
Then there was Jon Jones' arrest and suspension, Jose Aldo's rib, Kimbo Slice and Fedor Emelianenko. We didn't forget about those guys. In fact, they could lie at the center of the storm in the second half of 2015, which, if it's anything like the first half, will be pretty freaking crazy.
So what are the top storylines as we look toward autumn and beyond? That's what we're here to identify. A gallant band of writers assembled herein—Jonathan Snowden, Jeremy Botter, Chad Dundas and myself—have each found and described what we think will be a key plot point for the coming months. As people who drive cars like to say, buckle your safety belt.
The Wait for (and Eventual Return Of) the Light Heavyweight GOAT
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As of this writing, former UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones is still on company-mandated time-out to deal with unspecified personal issues. Jones turned himself in for felony hit-and-run in April after allegedly fleeing the scene of a mid-morning traffic accident in his adopted hometown of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Last we heard, the case appeared headed for a grand jury, as prosecutors continue to wait for two key pieces of evidence.
Since we don’t really know where Jones is, what problems he’s trying to fix or whether he’ll ultimately face trial, it’s tough for MMA fans to know what to make of his athletic future.
The UFC had no choice but to forge ahead without him, putting the vacant title on Daniel Cormier after a win over Anthony Johnson and booking him for a title defense against Alexander Gustafsson at UFC 192 on October 3.
But the 205-pound division is feeling a little lackluster without Bones. Even those who took unique pleasure in disliking the greatest light heavyweight of all time throughout his UFC run should be pining for his return at this point.
Will he make it back by the end of the year? Will he make it back at all?
One way or another, Jones’ absence—and perhaps his eventual return—will be among the biggest MMA stories for the rest of this year.
Jose Aldo-Conor McGregor Rivalry Reaches Fever Pitch
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The UFC gambled big when they booked Chad Mendes to replace Jose Aldo at UFC 189. They could've pulled the fight from the card, apologized to all the Irish fans who'd already booked their travel and pushed it until later in the fall, when Aldo heals up.
Instead, they pushed all their chips to the center of the table. And they won big.
Now, what was considered the biggest fight the UFC could make this year (and perhaps for the next few years, though that is a story for a different day) is even bigger. Perhaps even historically so.
I will not sit here and tell you that I think the UFC will fill AT&T Stadium in Dallas, and I certainly won't scream, like a certain someone we all know, about how it's going to be the biggest fight in UFC history.
But I will tell you that it's going to be big. Very big. And if it does break that long-standing pay-per-view record set by UFC 100, or even comes close, the UFC will have scored so very big in a moment when they could have lost so very much.
The Curious Case of CM Punk
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UFC owner Lorenzo Fertitta and president Dana White don't often fly into a city to court a fighter with no professional bouts, no amateur bouts and no history of athletic success on any level. In fact, it's happened just once, when the UFC's dynamic duo jetted into Chicago late last year to wine and dine former WWE star Phil "CM Punk" Brooks, shocking the combat sports world by signing one of the wrestling world's top stars to a deal that lit the Internet on fire.
Punk, who had trained jiu-jitsu but had never even so much as sparred MMA fighting prior to signing with the world's biggest fight promoter, originally expected to be making his debut right...about...now.
But, it turns out, six months' training isn't quite enough time to prepare for a big league debut. Instead, the man who once carried the WWE title for 434 days has pushed back his debut to December (or beyond) while describing himself as a white belt in most MMA disciplines.
“It’s super awesome and it’s super fun,” Punk told UFC.com's Michael Martinez. “I’m a fan of knowledge, so every day for me is a good day because I’m always learning something. It’s a lot, but I know what I signed up for.”
Nothing much has changed in the six months since Punk started training with Duke Roufus in Milwaukee. As MMA Fighting's Dave Meltzer explained, the odds of the 36-year-old succeeding are long:
"Nobody knows if Punk can fight. Realistically, given his age and injuries from a career of pro wrestling, and lack of competitive background in any combat sport, the odds are greatly against him. This is a Kimbo Slice play, and even Slice had experience in actually fighting people, which isn’t MMA, but it is something. UFC isn't going to make the Elite XC Kimbo Slice mistake. They aren't going to build the company around him or promote that he’s a great striker when he isn’t. He'll likely be...an attraction on the main card.
"
If Punk fights this year, it will be a big deal, at least at the box office. He, like Brock Lesnar before him, will bring a significant number of fans with him from the WWE. Though he claims it's not his calling, he will make money. That's a given.
Athletically, of course, any CM Punk fight will be a sham, the kind of contest that does little more than remind people that the UFC still resembles a circus sideshow.
While Bellator took its fair share of heat for promoting a Ken Shamrock vs. Kimbo Slice fight earlier in the year, Punk's eventual debut will remind us that no one's hands are clean—in MMA these days, spectacle is putting a beating on sport.
The Rise of Bellator
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Granted, some of it might be a nifty bit of kinematics. But that doesn't fully explain the ground Bellator is gaining on MMA's lead dog.
Sure, the UFC is taking its lumps. Continued blowback over its recent Reebok sponsorship deal, which just endured an atrocious rollout and has yet to meaningfully address concerns over fighter compensation, is a lingering issue. So is that lawsuit from fighters alleging a raft of illegal business practices. (The next hearing on that, by the way, is scheduled for Thursday, when the parties discuss Zuffa's motion to dismiss.) So this potential new age of prosperity, fueled mainly by McGregor and Ronda Rousey, is tempered by these backstage realities.
So when we talk about the rise of Bellator, some of that may be in relation to a deflated UFC. But not all of it. Behind Scott Coker, the former Strikeforce executive who took the reins in June 2014, Bellator is entering a boom cycle of its own.
Take June's wacky but fascinating matchup between old-but-famous Kimbo Slice and older-but-famouser Ken Shamrock. That event, aired on Spike TV, crushed Bellator's previous ratings record by 27 percent.
The old mark? Established only six months prior, when the same formula (old, famous fighters fighting each other) netted a then-record mark when Tito Ortiz "beat" Stephan Bonnar.
Bellator's big September event, Dynamite, is already setting the MMA bubble abuzz with its one-night light heavyweight tournament and co-promotion with Glory kickboxing. (Even the show's floor layout, released Monday, generated heat.)
The organization has also apparently started reaping the fruits of fighter dissatisfaction with the UFC. Phil Davis has moved to Bellator, as has Cheick Kongo. Amateur wrestling phenoms like Ed Ruth and Aaron Pico committed to the organization. Are these game-changing fighters? Maybe not. But these signings would have been very unlikely just a couple of years ago, and may portend something bigger.
Last week a new wild card entered that fray in the form of one Fedor Emelianenko. The legendary Russian heavyweight recently announced a return to action after a three-year retirement. Both sides are surely making plays for his services, and his ultimate landing place will impact that place's bottom line.
We'll see what happens. Either way, the battle is real, for the first time in quite a while. Zuffa is still the unquestioned lord and master of mixed martial arts, but in Bellator it may have an opponent with a game plan smart enough to cut into its size disadvantage.
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