UFC on Fox 16: B/R Staff Main Card Predictions
The UFC makes its return to the Windy City, as UFC on Fox 16 touches down in the great city of Chicago on Saturday. The stacked card will take place on network TV in prime time and features a championship rematch in the headliner.
T.J. Dillashaw makes his second defense of the UFC Bantamweight Championship against Renan Barao, the man he dethroned to become the king of the hill. It continues a long-running rivalry between Team Alpha Male and Nova Uniao.
Bleacher Report got the band back together to make their fearless picks for this event. So without further ado, James MacDonald, Sean Smith, Scott Harris, Craig Amos and me, Riley Kontek, will lead you through this card with our picks.
2015 Records
1 of 5
James MacDonald has separated from the pack.
After some faulty picking by myself and others, MacDonald stands alone at the top. Sean Smith has gained ground on me as well, making the race to the top tighter.
Poor old Scott Harris and Craig Amos. They can't seem to get their feet under them.
As the second half of the year continues, we will keep a close eye on the records despite the fact that the light at the end of the tunnel is not yet here.
James MacDonald: 86-43
Riley Kontek: 83-46
Sean Smith: 81-48
Craig Amos: 75-54
Scott Harris: 72-57
Joe Lauzon vs. Takanori Gomi
2 of 5
Kontek
It seems like Joe Lauzon and Takanori Gomi have been in too many wars at this point in their careers, which is why they have slowed recently. It only seems fitting that they are facing off at this point. On the feet, Gomi has far more power. He has shown struggles on the ground though, which is where Lauzon should take this bout.
Lauzon, Submission, Rd. 3
MacDonald
This should be a fun fight. Gomi carries a ton of power, but his overall game is limited. Lauzon’s striking isn’t quite up to snuff, but he’s relentless with his grappling. I expect Lauzon to take Gomi down and eventually secure a fight-ending submission.
Lauzon, Submission, Rd. 2
Harris
Fox has to like this as the start of the big broadcast. We know what these guys are going to do: war, the verb form. There will be blood. There may be guts. Lauzon has the edge in age, dynamism and grappling, on the off chance the fight goes there.
Lauzon, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Coming off a knockout loss to Al Iaquinta, Lauzon will definitely need to get this fight to the ground, or he could suffer two straight stoppage defeats. Gomi hasn’t been submitted since September 2011, but he’ll be in serious trouble if he ends up on the canvas with Lauzon. For me, this is a coin flip, but I usually side with the better grappler in these kinds of bouts.
Lauzon, Submission, Rd. 2
Amos
Neither fighter's game plan is a mystery coming into this one: Lauzon needs the takedown, while Gomi needs to prevent it. I rate it more likely that Lauzon executes his strategy.
Lauzon, Submission, Rd. 2
Paul Felder vs. Edson Barboza
3 of 5
Kontek
I can really go either way with this matchup. I love a hot prospect, and Paul Felder is definitely that. However, his strength is Edson Barboza's strength. That said, Barboza's striking defense is somewhat suspect. That is not enough, though, to have me pick against him. Put a stamp on this as a potential Fight of the Night.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald
So, this is likely to be your Fight of the Night. Felder is the protege of Donald Cerrone, and we all saw what Barboza did to Cerrone on the feet. However, Felder is a more well-rounded striker than his mentor, whose boxing leaves something to be desired. In a pure striking contest, I would pick Barboza against 99 percent of the roster. He may have met his match here, though.
Felder, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
I do sincerely hope that you enjoy what we civilized folk like to call the spinning stuff. Barboza favors the spinning kicks, while Felder is more of a spinning backfist man. Barboza and his leg kicks are dangerous for a fighter who is coming off a knee surgery, as Felder is. This is too much, too soon for Felder in his return bout and only his third UFC contest.
Barboza, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith
Coming off a stoppage win over Danny Castillo, Felder got this matchup with Barboza when Myles Jury had to pull out of UFC on Fox 16 with an injury. Because Barboza squeaked by Castillo on the scorecards 19 months ago, part of me wants to go with Felder in the upset. However, this is a completely different matchup for Barboza, who won’t have to worry too much about defending takedowns and should be able to utilize his elite striking en route to a win.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Amos
Felder was great against Danny Castillo, but he won't put on the same striking clinic against Barboza. He'll need to mix up his offense if he hopes to stay unbeaten, but Barboza should shut him down for the most part.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Miesha Tate vs. Jessica Eye
4 of 5
Kontek
Jessica Eye has been strong as a UFC roster member, but she runs into a bigger, wrestling-based Miesha Tate who will use her takedowns effectively here. Eye will get her licks in, but Tate's healthy dose of takedowns and control will make this a victory for her, even if it isn't aesthetically pleasing.
Tate, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald
Eye is the superior striker and boasts decent takedown defense, so this isn’t a gimme for Tate. However, she is as gritty as it gets and will shoot as many times as she has to in order to get the fight to the mat. Once the fight hits the deck, it should be all Tate. I won’t be shocked if the former Strikeforce champ secures a submission, but Eye will probably see all 15 minutes.
Tate, Unanimous Decision
Harris
Eye battered Leslie Smith at UFC 180, and she'll want to do the same to Tate, but it won't work. Tate has long been considered a part of the division's highest echelon. Just because she picked fights with the best women's MMA fighter ever doesn't mean she can't still handle business. She'll avoid the slugfest and grind out a decision.
Tate, Unanimous Decision
Smith
With three straight wins since her second loss to Ronda Rousey, Tate has her eyes set on a third meeting with the women’s bantamweight champion. In order to earn another shot at Rousey, though, Tate will have to go through Eye and might even need another win or two after that. Tate will use her wrestling to continue rolling with a decision win over Eye, but I’m not sure the UFC has interest in booking another bout between Rousey and Tate in the short term.
Tate, Unanimous Decision
Amos
Tate's recent win over Sara McMann shows that she is still one of the best fighters in the bantamweight division. She'll have her hands full in this one though, given how outstanding Eye performed in her last bout. It was a breakout performance for her, and she'll build on that, picking up the most important victory of her life Saturday night.
Eye, TKO, Rd. 2
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Renan Barao
5 of 5
Kontek
It's hard to believe that neither Dillashaw nor Barao has competed in 2015. That's shocking. However, Dillashaw hasn't competed in longer time than Barao, which concerns me. That said, his wrestling and improved striking are what make the champ such a tough matchup. It's hard to believe this, because when you think of head-kick finishes, you think of Mirko Cro Cop and Anthony Johnson, yet Dillashaw has three of those in his short career. Watch for that here.
Dillashaw, TKO, Rd. 3
MacDonald
I thought Dillashaw would win the first fight but chickened out in light of the smoke being blown up Barao’s rear. The pick is much more straightforward this time around. Dillashaw is a better mixed martial artist than the Brazilian has ever been. He might make it to the final bell, but Barao will ultimately be going home empty-handed.
Dillashaw, Unanimous Decision
Harris
The UFC seemed intent on making this rematch and has had to wade through a lot of garbage juice to get here. So hopefully it's worthwhile. In the original, Dillashaw beat Barao to every punch, taking the fight to the more calculating Brazilian. He was loose and creative, while Barao was tight and tentative. I don't see any reason to expect a different outcome in the second go-around.
Dillashaw, TKO, Rd. 5
Smith
It has been 14 months since Dillashaw shocked the world and dethroned Barao in dominant fashion. With both fighters only having competed once since then, there is little reason to believe a whole lot has changed. So, while Barao will be able to go the distance this time around, Dillashaw will be the fighter with his hand raised once again.
Dillashaw, Unanimous Decision
Amos
Even though Dillashaw's win in the first fight was surprising, there isn't much reason to pick against him here. He beat Barao convincingly and then dominated Joe Soto, whereas Barao struggled somewhat in his rebound win against Mitch Gagnon.
Dillashaw, Unanimous Decision
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team 👉")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
