Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: The Best Rounds to Draft Each Position in 2015

Like the pirate's code, average draft position data is more like a guideline than a rule in fantasy football. After all, leagues are populated by humans with biases—five quarterbacks could go in the first two rounds for no discernible reason.

It's for that reason that you should take the following advice with a grain of salt. It's based on average draft position trends of the offseason, but you should always follow the value. If fantasy players in your league binge on quarterbacks, take advantage by crushing another position.

Let the draft come to you.

With that said, let's look at some of the best rounds to take the different positions in the fantasy realm based on where players are going in drafts and positional value.

Quarterback

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Ah, quarterbacks. The sexiest of all positions. In sports. 

The thing about quarterbacks in standard leagues is that they are plentiful. You don't need to draft one early. The difference between the top-scoring quarterback last season was 86.3 standard fantasy points at ESPN and 91.4 at Yahoo, where they penalize a bit less for interceptions.

Were it not for some injuries to other good fantasy options, that gap might have been tighter.

Of course, you wouldn't want to be stuck with a dynamic duo of Geno Smith and Matt Cassel. That's why you're here—finding an optimal place to take a quarterback is key. This ebbs and flows from year to year.

Heading into fantasy draft season, there is one clear spot to take a quarterback based on ADP—the sixth round.

The top two quarterbacks from a year ago are naturally the top two being drafted in 2015—Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. Both are being taken in the second round on average—a bit rich given what we have discussed. 

If either of them falls into the third or even fourth round, however, don't be afraid to pounce. That seems unlikely, but it happens.

No, the best round to draft a quarterback is decidedly the sixth.

That's when you can draft Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. Heck, if you're lucky, your league will be down on Drew Brees and he'll fall in there.

Three of those guys were in the top 10 in fantasy scoring last season and a fourth who ranked eighth on a per-game basis, and there's no reason to think they won't repeat that this season. 

Newton is particularly tantalizing there because of his upside as a runner. Carolina's starter was hobbled all last season, and he had a terrible offensive line and shallow receiver corps to boot. Both those things have improved along with his health this offseason, and he could reclaim the rushing throne from Russell Wilson in 2015.

If you are inclined to wait a bit longer—and why wouldn't you if some great values come your way at other positions—then the eighth round is your next-best bet to fill the position with a quality quarterback.

Tom Brady fell that far after his suspension, though his price continues to rise in anticipation of his sentence being commuted by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. Ryan Tannehill—another quarterback with rushing upside—and the underrated Eli Manning won't see similar rises in ADP, however.

Both ranked in the top 10 last season.

Six Points per Passing Touchdown Leagues

Here's a dirty little secret when you are drafting in leagues where passing touchdowns count for six points—quarterback values don't change all that much.

Sure, the gap between the top fantasy quarterback and the guy who finishes 12th is a bit wider. Last season that would have been 102.7 points between Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers over at NFL.com, which doles out six points for passing touchdowns.

Does that sound like much more than the gap we saw in standard scoring formats?

Running Back

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There is a small-but-growing movement in the fantasy football realm. It's called Zero RB, where you would theoretically eschew the position early in drafts in favor of taking late shots and riding the waiver wire. With first-round busts seemingly multiplying over the years, it might behoove fantasy owners to pick a less volatile position and forego drafting a running back until late.

This might seem insane, but there are merits to the tactic. Here is what Shawn Siegele, Champion of Zero RB, had to say when he wrote about it over at Rotoviz a few years ago:

"

The historical results suggest running backs get hurt at a higher rate than other positions. The decision to structure rosters to take advantage of this fact doesn’t cause it to happen and is ethically neutral. When it naturally occurs, my roster gets better and everyone else’s gets worse. 

"

It's a viable strategy that does give your team an advantage as backs on other teams get hurt. The trouble is you don't know who is going to get hurt and whether guys you draft late will actually be effective if they do get playing time.

Zero RB is certainly not zero risk—do you want to white-knuckle your way through the season, praying one of your late picks does the job? If a more traditional approach is your cup of tea, you need to take a running back early.

That means taking at least one in the first two rounds, despite the bust factor. The trick is picking the right one.

So you can take one in the first round. Does that mean you should take one in the second? Well, that depends. Are Arian Foster, C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy or DeMarco Murray still available? At least one should be for most of the round, if ADP data is any indication.

That fact makes it more palatable to take someone like, say, Rob Gronkowski in the first round while retaining a top-10 option at running back.

The fourth round has some interesting options if Frank Gore falls into it, including Carlos Hyde—his Bay Area successor—Latavius Murray and Andre Ellington, whose great rookie season was washed away in a hobbled 2014 campaign.

The risk is baked into the ADP for those guys, and all of them could wind up in the top 10 if they hang onto starting jobs and stay healthy.

If Zero RB is your game—or you are looking for some quality depth—the 12th round might be your Huckleberry. Danny Woodhead ranked 19th in fantasy scoring just two years ago, and his ADP has him at the tail end of the 11th.

Joining him are pass-catching machine Darren Sproles and second-year forgotten man Andre Williams, who could well lead the Giants in touches this season.

Wide Receivers

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Wide receivers. They're everywhere, right?

The evolution of the passing game in the NFL has fueled an explosion in talent at wide receiver. Production at the position is astounding—just look at the rookie class last season.

Headlined by Odell Beckham Jr.'s astounding season, it was the best rookie class in NFL history. Classes from the last decade have been wildly more productive than any other time period in NFL history.

What's the point of all this? To show the ubiquity at the position, of course. Last season saw 45 receivers score over 100 standard fantasy points, with now-unemployed James Jones bringing up the rear of that group. 

Of course, that doesn't mean you should just hope for a bunch of middling options and call it a day. Just six guys scored over 200, after all.

Are we running in circles? A bit. But all that shows that you have the most flexibility at this position.

If memory serves me right—the data is a bit elusive—five of those 200-point scorers weren't drafted in the top 10 last offseason. Perhaps the top-drafted receivers will live up to that billing this year, but there is certainly value to be had even in the early rounds.

To wit, the second and third rounds are filled with fantastic options that will allow you to go a different route in the first. 

Wide Receiver ADP

ADP	Receiver	Team	My Rank
13	Julio Jones	ATL	3
18	Calvin Johnson	DET	4
20	Jordy Nelson	GB	6
21	A.J. Green	CIN	7
23	Randall Cobb	GB	12
24	Alshon Jeffery	CHI	9
25	Mike Evans	TB	10
27	T.Y. Hilton	IND	13
30	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	27
31	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	11
32	Kelvin Benjamin	CAR	14

That's quite a list of names, guys who could all wind up in the top five in fantasy scoring. You won't have to go far to find the next-best spot, though—the fifth round houses another slew of great options.

Wide Receiver ADP

ADP	Receiver	Team	My Rank
50	Julian Edelman	NE	16
51	Andre Johnson	IND	17
52	Amari Cooper	OAK	22
53	Golden Tate	DET	28
54	Keenan Allen	SD	20
57	DeSean Jackson	WAS	26

So if you take a receiver in the second, third and fifth rounds, you are liable to get three top-20 guys.

As mentioned, though, there is so much depth at the position that it's hard to pick rounds. You can get quality guys in just about any round, even late if you have reasonable expectations that guys like Nick Toon, Marlon Brown and Albert Wilson will win starting jobs in New Orleans, Baltimore and Kansas City, respectively.

Perhaps the most enticing middle round is the seventh, with an interesting mix of young guys with upside in Jacksonville's Allen Robinson, Miami's Jarvis Landry and Philadelphia's Nelson Agholor, and redemption stories in Arizona's Michael Floyd and Minnesota's Mike Wallace.

Tight Ends

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Tight ends and quarterbacks are cut from the same fantasy cloth. That is to say, talent abounds at a position with just one starting spot in most formats.

Unlike quarterbacks, however, the dropoff is far more significant once we get past the top 10 or so, at least from a projection standpoint.

Also unlike the quarterback position, there is one player, who is head and shoulders above every other, worthy of first-round consideration—Rob Gronkowski.

The Monster of New England severely outscored his peers last season, to the tune of 2.2 points per game over his next-closest competitor, Julius Thomas. The difference between Gronk and the 12th-best fantasy scorer—New York's Larry Donnell—was 94.1 points.

That's more than Donnell scored on the season.

The trouble is that first-round price tag—Gronkowski isn't coming back to you in the second round if you pass him up, and that's quite the price to pay for a tight end. Positional scarcity rears its ugly head again, right?

If you wait until the fifth round or so, however, you might just get a great consolation prize—Kansas City's Travis Kelce or Carolina's Greg Olsen. 

One gives you unbridled potential while the other gives you proven consistency. Kelce's nickname isn't Baby Gronk without a reason, after all, and he will have the job to himself this season. If only he had Tom Brady.

Olsen, meanwhile, is a target hog in Carolina.

Outside that, there doesn't seem to be a singularly good round to draft tight ends. You can wait a bit longer and still land quality options with upside like Miami's Jordan Cameron or Tennessee's Delanie Walker, but they are being taken in disparate rounds.

Kickers and Defenses

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Really? Why are you considering taking a kicker or defense earlier than the last few rounds?

It never fails, someone in your league invariably takes the San Francisco 49ers in the eighth round. Well, nowadays it's the Seattle Seahawks, who are being taken in that round on average.

Why? They may boast one of the best defenses in the league, but that guarantees nothing in the fantasy realm. Depending on scoring format, the Seahawks ranked in the bottom 10 in fantasy scoring last season.

They may well bounce back, but consider this—despite that ranking, they were only 54 points or so behind the top-ranked Eagles, who came out of nowhere to score a bunch of defensive and special teams touchdowns a year ago.

Ride the waiver wire. The same goes for kickers. Don't be that guy or gal.

Average draft position courtesy of Footballguys.com. Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday.com.