Ranking Padres SP Michael King's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency
Now that the San Diego Padres are out of the postseason, the next thing they have to worry about is two of their best pitchers jumping ship in free agency.
Dylan Cease has nothing standing between him and the open market, whereas Michael King has a decision to make on a $15 million mutual option. Yet it would seem to be an easy one, as MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported in August that the right-hander is expected to decline it.
If so, King will present an interesting case study as a free agent. He's a 30-year-old with only 64 starts to his name, and the difference between his 2024 and 2025 seasons is stark:
2024: 30 GS, 173.2 IP, 144 H (17 HR), 201 K, 63 BB, 2.95 ERA
2025: 15 GS, 73.1 IP, 62 H (12 HR), 76 K, 26 BB, 3.44 ERA
King missed basically half of this season, first due to a nerve issue in his shoulder and then because of inflammation in his left knee. Yet he was still effective when he did pitch, with eight of the 28 earned runs he allowed coming in just one start.
Spotrac estimates King's market value at four years, $92 million. That puts him roughly in Eduardo Rodriguez (4 years, $80 million) territory, which seems like a fair over/under. His upside could send him over, while his recent injury trouble and a likely inevitable qualifying offer could send him under.
Either way, the question is which teams could make a run at King, even if it does cost close to $100 million. Without further delay, here are 10 candidates.
10. Baltimore Orioles
1 of 10
Projected SP Options: Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells
The Orioles' starting pitching probably wasn't as bad as you think this year, but it wasn't good either. It ranked 24th in ERA and only a touch better (i.e., 20th) in rWAR.
Now the O's are staring down a winter in which they stand to lose Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano, all while there's tremendous pressure on the organization to do something to avenge a 2025 season gone awry.
Signing King would be quite gamble to this extent, as the money he's likely to command is the kind that the O's don't throw around lightly. But since Eflin, Sugano and Gary Sánchez are taking roughly $40 million in salary off the club's books, it's at least an idea for the "Stranger Things Have Happened" folder.
Still, some things are best believed when seen. The Orioles tended to shy away from rich free-agent deals even before David Rubenstein came along, and he's been more frugal than pretty much everyone expected.
9. Los Angeles Angels
2 of 10
Projected SP Options: Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, Mitch Farris, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri
Angels starters finished at the bottom of the AL with a 4.91 ERA, which pretty much nixed whatever hope they had of riding their homer-happy offense into the playoffs.
What the Angels should be doing is rebuilding, but that's been the case for so long that the mantra itself borders on useless. They run on the whims of Arte Moreno, who lusts for contention like Don Quixote tilts at windmills.
In his defense, this tends to mean putting his money where his mouth is in free agency. The history here is decidedly checkered, but Moreno might be emboldened anyway by the ample salary about to come off the team's books. To wit, Tyler Anderson's free agency alone will free up $13 million.
It takes two to tango, however, and the Angels might have to overbid to get King to accept an offer from a team with an 11-year playoff drought. Such an outcome is possible—they did so with Yusei Kikuchi, after all—but hard to bank on.
8. Boston Red Sox
3 of 10
Projected SP Options: Garrett Crochet, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Richard Fitts, Kyle Harrison, Patrick Sandoval
Regardless of when the Red Sox are finished with their playoff stay, an immediate question will concern the fate of Lucas Giolito.
He has a $19 million mutual option that seemed as good as declined just a few days ago, but less so now that he's down with an elbow injury. But since surgery is not on the table, there are still decent odds that he'll test the open market.
If he does, Boston will have a hole in its rotation and a nice bit of savings with which to patch it. King would be an attractive option on two fronts, as he has electric stuff and is something of a local product. He played college ball at Boston College.
Then again, just look at that long list of options the Red Sox have lined up for 2025. Even if Giolito does opt out, that list could be their cue to commit money elsewhere, such as to a new contract for Alex Bregman.
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
4 of 10
Projected SP Options: Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson
Things certainly felt grim for Arizona's rotation this year, which also lost Corbin Burnes (Tommy John surgery) and Merrill Kelly (trade) as it went along. In the end, it ranked 19th with a 4.24 ERA.
They probably should have more than three options lined up for the 2026 rotation, but Zac Gallen is a free agent and the three guys listed above are the only guys under contract for next year who made at least five starts this season.
The Snakes do have some down-roster internal options after all the trades they made, but this situation is simply calling out for an offseason splash. And to this end, King would fit the bill as a guy with No. 1 upside who may fit in Arizona's budget.
One would hope, anyway, but it depends on D-backs managing partner Ken Kendrick. He's a competitive owner who is known to surprise in free agency, but he's also talking about reducing payroll next year.
6. San Diego Padres
5 of 10
Projected SP Options: Nick Pivetta, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears
Indeed, who says King can't simply find his way back to San Diego with a new contract with the Padres?
Perhaps it's implausible to expect the Friars to retain both King and Cease, but one or the other should be doable. The team has a fair deal of money coming off its books this winter, with Cease and Luis Arraez accounting for nearly $28 million just on their own.
Then again, Pivetta's salary is going up by $18 million next year. That new money is going to make it harder for San Diego to spend elsewhere, and then there's the matter of the sheer risk of re-signing King.
With Musgrove coming back from Tommy John surgery and Darvish no longer capable of making 30-plus starts in a season, the Padres don't need another high-priced veteran with iffy durability in their rotation. Given what happened this year, King would match that description.
5. Detroit Tigers
6 of 10
Projected SP Options: Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty*, Reese Olson, José Urquidy*
Pardon the asterisks, but Flaherty and Urquidy both have options that could go either way.
For his part, Flaherty has a $20 million player option for 2026 that he might want to take after posting 15 losses and a 4.64 ERA this year. The Tigers otherwise hold a $4 million club option on Urquidy.
Either way, something the Tigers need to take out of this season is that Skubal badly needs a proper No. 2 supporting him in the rotation. King has the goods to be that guy, and the Tigers are frankly overdue to take a chance on the kind of deal it would take to secure him.
Yet even if that is the case in theory, this is another situation where it's hard to bank on spending actually happening. Despite occasional hints to the contrary, Tigers owner Chris Ilitch and president of baseball operations Scott Harris have largely stuck to a risk-averse approach since they began working together.
4. New York Mets
7 of 10
Projected SP Options: Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Kodai Senga, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat
Starting pitching became a huge problem for the Mets in the second half of the year, with their rotation ranking fourth from the bottom of MLB in ERA. You may have heard what happened to the team in the process.
With options like those lined up for 2026, the Mets can leave good enough alone with their rotation if they want this winter. But the attitude must be that it's not good enough, especially given the late-season struggles by Manaea, Peterson and Senga and the growing pains of Tong and Sproat.
The Mets can hypothetically afford anyone on the starting pitching market, but King represents the kind of risk they've been comfortable taking when it comes to arms: pricey on a year-to-year basis, but on a relatively short contract.
Granted, the Mets also have to think about re-signing Pete Alonso and keeping Edwin Díaz if he also opts out. But with Steve Cohen's checkbook, all things should be possible.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
8 of 10
Projected SP Options: Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Shane Bieber*, Trey Yesavage, Bowden Francis
Bieber will only be back if he exercises a $16 million player option, which could go either way after he made only seven starts upon returning from Tommy John surgery.
Otherwise, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt are both headed for free agency this winter. The late-season emergence of Yesavage should lead to him taking over one of their spots in 2026, but the Blue Jays would be wise to pursue another option in free agency just in case.
King would be an ideal option, as he could slot into the No. 2 spot behind Gausman, with the potential to become a No. 1 or a No. 3 depending on how Gausman and Yesavage perform next year. He also has experience in the AL East from his time with the Yankees.
Perhaps the Blue Jays will be more interested in retaining Bo Bichette this winter, but they shouldn't have to choose one or the other. After winning the AL East, "all-in" needs to be their default mode until further notice.
2. Chicago Cubs
9 of 10
Projected SP Options: Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga*, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea*, Justin Steele
Asterisks abound here, and they have to do with a straightforward $6 million club option for Rea and a decision on Imanaga that is way more complicated.
Regardless, Chicago's 2025 rotation was not as solid as its overall 3.83 ERA indicates. Only Boyd was a consistent producer throughout the year, and only Horton flashed No. 1 upside. Steele did so in the past, but he'll be coming back from Tommy John surgery next year.
So even if Kyle Tucker headlines are likely to dominate the Cubs' offseason, it's arguably the rotation that should take priority. They can afford to go after Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez, but King has a certain appeal that both of them don't.
Whereas it's King's recent injury history that's scary, what should spook suitors about Cease and Valdez is how volatile their performance can be. Cease is a free pass waiting to happen, while Valdez can be prone to bomb starts in which nothing is working.
1. San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
Projected SP Options: Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Landen Roupp, Carson Whisenhunt, Hayden Birdsong, Keaton Winn
The best pitcher the Giants had down the stretch of 2025 was old man Justin Verlander, who shrugged off his 42 years with a 1.96 ERA in his last seven starts.
The Giants somehow only got a 4.13 ERA out of their starters anyway, but the potential for a powerhouse rotation will be there if they can line up someone with even more upside than Verlander behind Webb and Ray, who also pitched well this year.
King is that kind of guy in a vacuum, and his profile is perfect for Oracle Park. He can and does miss bats, but his real strength is stifling hard contact. Put that talent together with one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB, and what you should get is a beautiful friendship.
The Giants should be able to spend after reducing their payroll relative to 2024, and they're in a rare spot where they don't really have to worry about their offense. With Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman and Willy Adames in place and Bryce Eldridge on the up-and-up, it's solid.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
