Projecting When Non-MLB Playoff Teams Will Reach the Postseason Next
The MLB playoffs are underway, and that matters more than anything to the 12 fanbases with a rooting interest in the outcome.
For the other 18, there's always next year. Or maybe the year after that one, the year after that one, and so on.
Here, we have tried to project precisely when each team that missed out on the 2025 playoffs will be ready to play in October again. There's naturally a great deal of guesswork involved in projects like these, but we did our best to read tea leaves pertaining to each team's current talent and future outlook.
Teams are grouped according to their projected playoff windows, starting with the ones that likely have several years' worth of work to do.
Don't Hold Your Breath: 2028 or Later
1 of 6
Colorado Rockies
2025 Record: 43-119
2025 WAR: -3.8
Farm System Rank: 21
Even if the Rockies avoided all-time infamy this year, this was easily the worst season in a run of three straight 100-loss campaigns. The WAR says it all, as they were collectively somehow even worse than the 2018 version of Chris Davis.
Save for All-Star catcher Hunter Goodman, there's a dire shortage of talent on the big club's roster right now. And with 2024 first-rounder Charlie Condon having already lost a ton of value, the farm isn't in great shape, either.
It's as if the franchise badly needs a new perspective, though Rockies fans know better than to expect such a thing anytime soon. If the team is known for anything, it's for being insular to a fault.
Washington Nationals
2025 Record: 66-96
2025 WAR: 11.9
Farm System Rank: 24
The Nationals have lost 516 games since winning the World Series in 2019, and the secret is out now that the owners don't really know what they're doing.
Paul Toboni, formerly of the Boston Red Sox, has an unenviable task as the Nationals' new president of baseball operations. He essentially has to reboot a failed rebuild, and he has shockingly little to work with.
James Wood is a star to build around and Eli Willits was the club's No. 1 pick in July, but the talent base here is otherwise painfully thin on short- and long-term upside.
The situation calls for dramatic trades, with MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams among those who should be on the block this winter.
Minnesota Twins
2025 Record: 70-92
2025 WAR: 26.7
Farm System Rank: 7
The Twins blew it up at the trade deadline, and their latest move in a new direction involved firing manager Rocco Baldelli. About the only thing that hasn't changed is ownership, as the Pohlads decided against selling in August.
That the farm system is in excellent shape is the good news, and it shouldn't take long for the Twins to start mining talent from it. Most notably, Walker Jenkins is in play for 2026 after making it to Triple-A this year.
In the meantime, though, the Twins would be wise to lean even further into rebuilding. Joe Ryan and Pablo López could be trade candidates for the winter.
Given he's 31 and unlikely to get more durable than he was this year, Byron Buxton should be as well.
In a Holding Pattern: Likely No Earlier Than 2027
2 of 6
Los Angeles Angels
2025 Record: 72-90
2025 WAR: 19.0
Farm System Rank: 29
It's fair to say the Angels beat expectations this year, for which it helped that they walloped 226 home runs. Zach Neto and Jo Adell pitched in 63 in what was a hugely encouraging year for both.
The other positive development was that Mike Trout played in 130 games, but his prime remains firmly in the rearview. And even if the Angels wanted to move him, he's probably untradeable on account of the $185.6 million remaining on his contract through 2030.
As the Angels are also on the hook for $38.6 million to Anthony Rendon next year, they need to keep building from within until they get real financial relief. And that is where things have not been going well for a long time, in part because they insist on draft quick fixes over genuine long-term upside.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2025 Record: 71-91
2025 WAR: 30.1
Farm System Rank: 3
That's now 10 straight seasons for the Pirates without a playoff berth, who also still haven't won an actual postseason series since the World Series all the way back in 1979. That was nearly 50 years ago.
The pitching infrastructure is there, though. Paul Skenes is doing all-time stuff early in his career, and he's going to be pitching alongside Bubba Chandler next season. They have enough pure talent between them to be the best rotation duo in MLB.
What the Bucs need is more offense, and that shouldn't be as simple as waiting on No. 1 prospect Konnor Griffin to arrive, likely in 2027. But unless Bob Nutting is going to go way against type and spend in free agency, that may have to be the case anyway.
St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Record: 78-84
2025 WAR: 24.3
Farm System Rank: 19
The Cardinals did well to hang in there this year, but they were never a real threat. And now they're freshly embarked on a new direction under Chaim Bloom, who officially took over as president of baseball operations on Tuesday.
Bloom stressed player development in his introductory press conference, which is where there's much work to be done. JJ Wetherholt is a star in the making and Liam Doyle was the club's No. 5 pick in July, but there's quite a dropoff in quality after those two in the Cardinals' list of top prospects.
In the meantime, the major league roster is in a state of mediocrity and stands to lose veterans like Sonny Gray, Nolan Arenado and potentially Willson Contreras this winter. In other words, Bloom needs to make good on his intentions in a hurry if the Cardinals are going to make a quick turnaround.
In Need of a Reset: Eyes on 2027
3 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Record: 80-82
2025 WAR: 35.3
Farm System Rank: 18
This is the second year in a row that the Diamondbacks narrowly missed out on the playoffs, and now managing partner Ken Kendrick is hinting at a reduced payroll in 2026.
That won't help matters, but the Snakes can at least feel confident about their offense going forward. Everyone knew Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll were stars, and now Geraldo Perdomo is coming off a 7-WAR season. And at some point, you have to figure Jordan Lawlar's time will come.
What Arizona lacked this year was stability on the mound, but they won't be lacking for options after cashing in so many trade chips for fresh arms. Yet if Kendrick follows through on his payroll hint, it may not be until Corbin Burnes is all the way back in 2027 that there will be real hope of a balanced team.
Texas Rangers
2025 Record: 81-81
2025 WAR: 37.8
Farm System Rank: 26
After almost pulling off a late rally to make the playoffs, the 2023 World Series champs suddenly feel rudderless. Bruce Bochy is gone and president of baseball operations Chris Young is openly talking about "financial uncertainty."
The bright side concerns how many arms the Rangers have secured for 2026 and beyond. Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi will be there, as will Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. If the latter two can fully harness their respective talents, the Rangers can hope to repeat as ERA champions.
The deGrom-Eovaldi duo is on the older side, though, and any reduction in spending isn't going to help an offense that was below average in scoring this year. Even if Evan Carter stays healthy and helps out Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford, that may not be enough if said duo shows its age.
Houston Astros
2025 Record: 87-75
2025 WAR: 40.5
Farm System Rank: 27
After failing to make it eight straight ALCS appearances in 2024, the Astros didn't even make the playoffs this year. The sound you can hear is a window sliding shut.
The coming winter won't make it any easier for Houston to keep its window open. Framber Valdez is a likely goner, and some injuries that otherwise left the rotation short-handed throughout 2025 will linger into 2026. Offensively, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are past their respective primes, and it isn't getting easier to count on a healthy Yordan Alvarez.
Especially with general manager Dana Brown alluding to a "full assessment," this feels like a team in need of a reset for at least one year.
The 2027 season is a good target for contention anyway, as that is when young guys like Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton should be ready to help recharge the offense.
The Maybe Pile: 2026 in a Best-Case Scenario
4 of 6
Chicago White Sox
2025 Record: 60-102
2025 WAR: 21.5
Farm System Rank: 16
That's now three straight 100-loss seasons for the White Sox, though they at least improved on their historically putrid effort in 2024 by 19 wins. It also doesn't take special glasses to see they're starting to come together.
The White Sox upped their team OPS by nearly 100 points from the first half to the second half this season, and that was largely driven by youngsters. Most notably, rookies Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel combined for a 134 wRC+.
They're a solid foundation on which to build an offense, just as All-Star Shane Smith is a nice starting point for a strong pitching staff. But the player development must continue and hasten, as it may not be until 2029 that the franchise is finally free of Jerry Reinsdorf's notorious cheapness.
Athletics
2025 Record: 76-86
2025 WAR: 29.3
Farm System Rank: 17
The A's have made steady progress since losing 112 games in 2023, even if a good chunk of it happened in relative obscurity in Sacramento this year.
What's for sure is that the A's already have a playoff-ready offense. Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom comprise one of the better foursomes in the American League. If Lawrence Butler can recapture his 2024 form, it'll be a fivesome next year.
There's a lot less certainty on the mound, to be sure, but it could be as soon as 2027 that the A's have enough firepower to succeed anyway. That's when Leo De Vries should be along, if not sooner after he liked his first taste of Double-A.
Miami Marlins
2025 Record: 79-83
2025 WAR: 26.8
Farm System Rank: 14
The Marlins almost snuck into the postseason, marking an extraordinary turnaround from their 100-loss effort just last year. And looking ahead, they have some good stuff going for them.
Assuming they lean into this year's rise, they should retain the ace duo of Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, the former of whom pitched brilliantly after a slow start through July. Add in a fully healthy Eury Pérez, and what you get is a rotation that can be the backbone of a real contender.
The question is how the Marlins can find more offensive support for Kyle Stowers, who carried an otherwise thin lineup with a .912 OPS and 25 homers. This could require spending, which should be on the table following a dramatic reduction in payroll from 2024 to 2025.
Not Going Anywhere: 2026 Wild-Card Contenders
5 of 6
Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Record: 77-85
2025 WAR: 34.6
Farm System Rank: 9
This is going to be an interesting winter for the Rays, as one can sit back and imagine them both buying and selling on the offseason markets.
On one hand, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Díaz and Pete Fairbanks are likely to be trade candidates. On the other, the Rays have a new owner who could be eager to put his stamp on the franchise. A big signing or two would accomplish that.
Either way, the important thing is it's still Erik Neander running the front office. He's kept the Rays going as a well-oiled player development machine for close to a decade, so it's a scary thought that he's working with a farm system that includes near-ready talents like Carson Williams and Brody Hopkins.
Baltimore Orioles
2025 Record: 75-87
2025 WAR: 24.7
Farm System Rank: 11
Sheesh, talk about a meltdown. To go from 101 wins and an AL East title in 2023 to last place just two years later is not what any of us had in mind.
Still, there's enough cause to hope for a quick turnaround. Even if Adley Rutschman (specifically his swing) is on the fritz, Samuel Basallo is there to fill his spot and otherwise star alongside Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday and the club's other cornerstone bats. Holliday, especially, will be a huge breakout candidate in 2026.
As to the mound, Trevor Rogers was a huge success story in the latter half of 2025, and Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez will both be healthy come next spring. There should be enough there to at least form a run at a wild card.
Kansas City Royals
2025 Record: 82-80
2025 WAR: 35.6
Farm System Rank: 23
The Royals can look back on this year and see their 8-18 June as the month that sunk their season. Had they been just a little better, they would be playing in October for a second straight year.
One area where the Royals are sure to be strong again in 2026 is on the mound. They have posted ERAs in the 3.70 range in each of the last two seasons, and all the main players (i.e., Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans) will be back.
It's offensively where the Royals tend to struggle, but Bobby Witt Jr. at least got more help from Vinnie Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia this year. And after a dominant rise through the minors, top prospect Carter Jensen will have his turn as a breakout candidate in 2026.
They'll Be Back: 2026 or Bust
6 of 6
Atlanta Braves
2025 Record: 76-86
2025 WAR: 34.2
Farm System Rank: 28
The Braves are up against some difficult decisions this winter, including whether any of their core stars should be dangled in trades. To this end, they should probably try to cash in Chris Sale and see if anyone is willing to take on Ozzie Albies.
Yet after going 30-24 in August and September, it seems unlikely a full-on teardown is in order. The Braves can pin their hopes for a 2026 comeback on better health and more productive hitters, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley offering legitimate upside in this respect.
Mind you, what this team needs is a new manager. Brian Snitker was a great story a couple years ago, but he let the team stagnate and, on at least one occasion, was oblivious to the internal politics of his own clubhouse.
San Francisco Giants
2025 Record: 81-81
2025 WAR: 32.0
Farm System Rank: 20
What a wild year for the Giants. It began with a hot start and a huge trade for Rafael Devers, and then ended with a whimper and the subsequent firing of Bob Melvin.
Still, this is a job that prospective managers should want. Whoever gets it will inherit a lineup anchored by Devers, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee and top prospect Bryce Eldridge. Further, still in the rotation will be Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
That the Giants share the NL West with the Dodgers and Padres is the complicating factor, but that's nothing a proper splash can't fix. And after cutting payroll for 2025, that should be possible this winter.
New York Mets
2025 Record: 83-79
2025 WAR: 40.7
Farm System Rank: 4
They're going to be stewing about this season in Queens for a while still, and rightfully so. A collapse is no fun. A collapse by the most expensive team in MLB is inexcusable.
The Mets now have some major decisions to make, including whether to bring back Pete Alonso following his upcoming opt-out. And yet one thing we can always take for granted is that money will be no object for Steve Cohen, who knows the buck stops with him as far as getting the team back to the World Series.
No matter what happens, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor will still be there in 2026, which should also be a coming-out party for young hurlers Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat.
As long as Cohen holds up his end by signing some checks this winter, the Mets will be right back in contention next summer.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
