College Football Playoff Bracket Projections and Predictions after Week 5

Just as we hoped and expected, Week 5 threw the first significant twists into the 2025 College Football Playoff picture.

Florida State lost on Friday, then LSU, Penn State and Georgia fell on Saturday. Those four results from Top 10 teams guaranteed we would have considerable changes in the rankings as the calendar flips to October.

In this post-Week 5 update, the current outlook now includes two newcomers to the field: Indiana and Ole Miss.

But which two teams dropped out of the bracket?

The projections for the CFP are based on the latest B/R Top 25, which both recent results have shaped and upcoming games will change.

Key Results in Week 5

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Trinidad Chambliss

Virginia 46, Florida State 38 (2OT)

Opening the slate in style, Virginia took out Florida State on Friday night. Chandler Morris accounted for five touchdowns as the Hoos navigated a huge performance from FSU wideout Duce Robinson—and unleashed a beautiful field storm. FSU is now playing catch-up in the ACC.

Illinois 34, USC 32
Oregon 30, Penn State 24 (2OT)

Illinois squandered a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter but survived on a field goal as time expired. Oregon, meanwhile, dealt with a wild environment at Penn State and secured an overtime victory.

Ole Miss 24, LSU 19
Alabama 24, Georgia 21

It's a long season. Look at 2024, when Alabama took down Georgia in a key September game. Bama ended up missing the CFP, while UGA recovered to win another SEC crown and reach the CFP. These results do not define the year, but it's a good thing to pick up victories of this magnitude.

B/R's Top 25 After Week 5

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Dante Moore

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Miami
4. Texas A&M
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Alabama
8. Georgia
9. Ole Miss
10. Texas Tech
11. Indiana
12. Texas
13. Iowa State
14. Tennessee
15. LSU
16. Missouri
17. Florida State
18. Georgia Tech
19. Vanderbilt
20. Louisville
21. Michigan
22. Illinois
23. Utah
24. Arizona State
25. South Florida

Post-Week 5 CFP Picture

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Fernando Mendoza and Roman Hemby

Bracket Format

Automatic bids: The highest-ranked team within five conferences. (Ultimately, the league champion will receive an auto-bid.)

1. Ohio State (No. 1, Big Ten)
2. Miami (No. 3, ACC)
3. Texas A&M (No. 4, SEC)
4. Texas Tech (No. 10, Big 12)
5. South Florida (No. 25, American)

At-large bids: The next seven highest-ranked teams in the country.

1. Oregon (No. 2)
2. Oklahoma (No. 5)
3. Penn State (No. 6)
4. Alabama (No. 7)
5. Georgia (No. 8)
6. Ole Miss (No. 9)
7. Indiana (No. 11)

Rankings are based on latest B/R Top 25.

Group of Five Check-In

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Heading into October, our highest-ranked G5 team is South Florida. Wins against then-Top 25 teams Boise State and Florida have propped up USF's resume.

But there are plenty of early contenders.

In the American alone, Memphis (5-0), North Texas (5-0) and Navy (4-0) all remain unbeaten. Tulane (4-1) only has a loss to Ole Miss, too.

Boise State (3-1) travels to Notre Dame in Week 6, so the Broncos have a chance on a national stage to atone for their setback at USF. They're chasing UNLV (4-0) in what may become a congested Mountain West.

In 11 years of the CFP era, the Group of Five representative has come from Conference USA and the MAC only once each, never the Sun Belt. Since no Sun Belt teams are undefeated, their Playoff hopes may depend on other results.

The bright side, of course, is about two-thirds of the season is left to play. The hunt for the G5's automatic CFP bid is heating up.

Impact Games in Week 6

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Mark Fletcher Jr.

ACC: Miami at Florida State

Florida State losing to Virginia robbed the rivalry of a Top 10 clash. Nevertheless, it's an exciting game in Tallahassee. Miami is aiming to bolster its case as a true national contender, and FSU assuredly would love to stall the hype around the 'Canes—while avoiding a second ACC setback, too.

Nonconference: Boise State at Notre Dame

As mentioned, this is a key opportunity for Boise State. If the Broncos were to finish 12-1 with a Mountain West crown and this victory, that would be a strong CFP resume. Notre Dame, meanwhile, needs to get on a roll after a pair of losses to Miami and Texas A&M.

SEC: Vanderbilt at Alabama

How about the Commodores? They're carrying a 5-0 record into Tuscaloosa, which should be a whole lot happier about Kalen DeBoer this week. Alabama is riding high following its win at Georgia, but Vandy beat the Tide last year.