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Expert CFB Locks for Alabama vs. Georgia and Week 5's Biggest Games
Sometimes, the games and the plays go exactly as your bets intended them to go. And sometimes, on rare, painful occasions, the starting quarterback you wagered on takes a safety for no good reason at all—holding onto the ball for what feels like an eternity for yet another snap—collapsing a bet in a way that is hard to comprehend days later.
Call it a bad beat. Call it bad luck. Whatever you call it, the ending of Auburn-Oklahoma was as bad for Tigers' bettors—and we were in that camp—was about as bad of a finish as one can experience.
Indeed, Week 4 delivered a slew of bizarre and unlikely losses. Despite these setbacks, we still finished with our third consecutive winning week.
Oh, what could have been.
The good news? The Week 5 college football slate is glorious. We may live in an era of hyperbole, but this might just be the best Saturday of the season.
As such, we're moving on from all wagers and have an eye on the future. Here's to more winners and proper vibes.
Last Week's Record: 5-4
Year to Date: 24-17-1
Virginia (+7) vs. Florida State
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First, consider the timing.
Florida State, one of the hottest programs in college football, is a little over a week from taking on Miami, one of the hottest programs in college football.
The two teams will meet in Week 6, with state bragging rights and much more to be decided. Before we get there, though, we're headed to Virginia.
The Seminoles will play their first road game of the year, and they will do so on a Friday night in an environment that has produced plenty of close calls and weird scores in the past.
Virginia certainly isn't Miami, but the Cavaliers are not without talent. Quarterback Chandler Morris has been excellent this season, and he's coming off a four-touchdown, 380-yard passing game.
With a total in the high 50s, Florida State will likely contribute plenty of points as well. Tommy Castellanos has been a wonderful addition at QB, and he will contribute plenty against this defense.
However, this feels like a game that could be weirder than many think with all the variables attached.
FSU wins, but Virginia keeps it close enough.
The Pick: Virginia (+7)
Alabama (+3) at Georgia
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At roughly 7:17 p.m. ET on August 30, we pronounced Alabama's season dead.
The Crimson Tide fell to Florida State in lackluster fashion, prompting a slew of questions about the effort, the future of the head coach, the state of the dynasty and more.
With that in mind, the point spread attached to this game will be surprising for many. Alabama has since rallied, although it has done so against UL Monroe and Wisconsin. Despite the lack of meaningful wins—no offense, Badgers fans—the number is where it is.
Here's what we know. Both offenses can and should move the ball. We also know both defenses are nowhere close to their dominant selves at present. Alabama is No. 27 in scoring defense, Georgia is barely in the top 40.
The difference in this game, oddly enough, might be Alabama QB Ty Simpson. While the Crimson Tide running attack remains a work in progress, Simpson—along with wideouts Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard—appears to be catching more.
Georgia, of course, has plenty of offense to counter with. The Bulldogs also have the home-field advantage. But the oddsmakers' renewed confidence in 'Bama feels noteworthy.
Kalen DeBoer needs this one badly, and I think he gets it.
The Pick: Alabama (+3)
Arkansas (+4.5) vs. Notre Dame
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The total tells us what kind of game we're in for. At the time of writing, it's hovering around 65 points, making it one of the larger totals we are going to see all year.
Given what we've seen from both teams in recent weeks, it feels about right. Arkansas ranks No. 13 in scoring offense; Notre Dame checks in at No. 26. On defense, Arkansas is currently No. 73 in scoring while Notre Dame is a very un-Notre Dame-like No. 118 in the same category.
If you like points, this is the game for you. And if you like quarterbacks capable of beating you in multiple ways, Taylen Green and CJ Carr are up for the challenge.
While some might look at Arkansas' loss to Memphis last week and panic, one could also look at the fact that the Irish allowed Purdue to score 30 points at home and come away with the same worry. Now, Notre Dame will hit the road for a noon game in a challenging environment, going up against a coach and team desperate for success.
There are bigger football games on the docket this week, although none might be more interesting than this one.
Arkansas stays within the number.
The Pick: Arkansas (+4.5)
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Washington (+8.5) vs. Ohio State
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The Buckeyes are the better team. In fact, they might wind up winning a national championship once again.
So, why are we fading them? There are a plethora of reasons for this, but let's start with the road trip and the environment.
Did you know Washington has not lost a home game since 2021?
With so many new faces contributing to Ohio State, it's reasonable to question how a young team will take to a road trip in a challenging environment. It's also reasonable to question how QB Julian Sayin will deal with a cross-country journey and his first-ever away start.
Washington also has a three-headed monster emerging with QB Desmond Williams Jr., running back Jonah Coleman and wideout Denzel Boston all delivering some incredible moments in the early part of the season.
While the Huskies haven't had a ton of hype heading into the year, the oddsmakers seem to believe that some additional hype and consideration is warranted. And although the schedule has been plenty favorable, Washington currently has the nation's No. 2-ranked scoring offense.
Ultimately, Ohio State will find a way to win. But after watching this team start slow against Ohio a few weeks ago, it wouldn't be shocking if this one gets far too close for comfort.
The Pick: Washington (+8.5)
Ole Miss (-1.5) vs. LSU
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It's safe to say LSU's pristine early-season resume is no longer pristine.
A close, hard-fought victory over Clemson doesn't tell us as much as it did three weeks ago. And a win over Florida, which was aided by five Gators' interceptions, certainly doesn't feel as significant as it once did.
That doesn't mean LSU is a bad football team. The upgrades this roster enjoyed in the offseason have flashed, and Garrett Nussmeier is one of the most capable quarterbacks in the country.
On the other sideline, Ole Miss has put together a decent resume after a close-call road win against Kentucky, a team that seems to have its number. Its most recent win over Tulane was dominant, and QB Trinidad Chambliss, who didn't begin the season as the starter, seems to have given this team life.
The Tigers have gone on the road and won, so the environment won't be new. Still, winning at Ole Miss will be no picnic, especially considering the way the Rebels have played of late.
The nation's No. 4 team is getting points. Don't fall for the trap.
Other Games on the Card
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Kansas State (-6) vs. UCF
Has any team been more disappointing than Kansas State? Indeed, it's been a brutal start for the Wildcats, although this is a chance to get right—if only for one week—at home. The oddsmakers seem confident in K-State, at least for one week. So are we.
Northern Illinois (+1.5) vs. San Diego State
Although San Diego State is coming off an enormous win over Cal, a cross-country trip to DeKalb is the kind of trek that could change results in a hurry. NIU has had a brutal schedule thus far, although the Huskies could get back on track here.
Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (Over 63.5)
There will be points. Lots of them. The spread says the game will be close, and those most recent results say there will be plenty of touchdowns. Don't be shocked if both teams soar past 30 points.
Arizona (+6.5) at Iowa State
Early signs for Arizona are plenty positive, although this road trip will tell us more. Iowa State is unbeaten with a slew of quality wins, but the Cyclones haven't been overwhelming. The Wildcats keep it with the number.
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