WNBA Playoff Bracket Predictions for Every 2025 Series from 1st Round to Finals

The WNBA playoffs are finally set to tip off Sunday, and buddy, am I excited.

We have some phenomenal matchups in Round 1, with plenty of star power and defensive versatility across the board to keep the fans fed. Beyond that, based on how each side of the bracket broke down, we also have some fascinating matchups on the way. The Narrative Monster™️ might be the only thing eating better than fans this postseason.

Today's exercise is a simple one: Look at the bracket, make picks and get yelled at.

The last one is a semi-joke, but I am here to do my best.

The formula for each series is also a simple one. I'll note something about the matchup that intrigues me, ask a big picture (or granular) question that matters to me, make my prediction and, as a bonus and show of transparency, offer a Confidence Score (from 1-10) of my predictions.

Naturally, I feel stronger about some picks than others. You also can't predict any injuries that may happen along the way, so I'm viewing this through an if-they're-healthy lens.

All stats are current through games played on September 11. The stats are courtesy of WNBA.com (basic player stats/advanced team stats), PBP Stats (lineup combinations), or Second Spectrum (player or team tracking/play-type data) unless otherwise noted.

First Round, Part One

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(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries

The Intrigue: Stylistic Clash

No team in the league carries the "beautiful game" moniker quite like the Lynx do. They, with MVP candidate Napheesa Collier as the engine, are beacons of spacing, body movement and ball movement. To strengthen that case, it's worth noting they led the league in offensive rating (109.5), three-point percentage (37.8) and ranked second in assist rate (72.6).

On the other side, the Valkyries enter the matchup boasting an elite defense (third in defensive rating, 99.8) that does a tremendous job of taking away fruitful looks. Between their aggressive help defense (76.7% help rate on drives, 2nd) and propensity for zone looks (7.3% of possessions, 1st), no team walls off the rim like they do.

In fact, only 18.1 percent of opponent shots came at the rim against them this year; not only was that the stingiest figure in the league, it's also the second-lowest clip we've seen since at least 2009 (2018 Aces, 14.6%).

The Question: Will Tiffany Hayes be available?

The most recent update we got on the former All-Star, who hasn't played since August 22, was that she had "a good workout" but remains day-to-day.

The Valkyries could sure use Hayes' drives and ability to draw fouls, on both ends, to give them more of a shot in this matchup. She averaged 16.0 points on 67 percent shooting from the field against the Lynx in their regular-season matchups, her highest scoring and efficiency markers against any team this season.

From a matchup perspective, the Valkyries' best chance in this series is to firmly win the backcourt battle. With Hayes and Veronica Burton (averaging 14-4-7-1-1 since the beginning of August) in the lineup, their chances of doing that would increase.

The Prediction: Lynx in 2

There is a general "the top seed should beat the eighth seed pretty easily" train of thought that isn't always fair and can serve as motivation for lower seeds. The Valkyries just capped off a regular season of proving people wrong to a historic degree; expansion teams aren't supposed to even be here in their inaugural season.

They certainly have a pathway; in addition to the backcourt point from earlier, no team took more threes than the Valkyries this year. There's certainly a world where some combination of Burton, Hayes, Janelle Salaün and Iliana Rupert bomb away from deep.

Ultimately, it's hard for me to trust the Valkyries scoring enough to keep pace with the Lynx's offense.

Confidence Score™️: 9

(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty

The Intrigue: Frontcourt Firepower

Just look at some of names that will be logging minutes at the 3 through 5 spots in this series: Alyssa Thomas, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Satou Sabally, Emma Meesseman, Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner. That of course leaves out a premium three-and-D wing in Leonie Fiebich and a glass-crashing defensive ace in Natasha Mack.

It's insane the level of skill, size, versatility and physicality we'll be seeing from these groups. Both Sandy Brondello and Nate Tibbetts will have their hands full trying to mix-and-match in preparation for the other.

The Question: Can Sabrina Ionescu get going?

Ionescu has had an interesting time against the Mercury this season. On one hand, it's clear that her (pull-up) shooting ability carries a certain amount of weight. The pickup points from the Mercury were incredibly high—Monique Akoa-Makani was in her jersey well beyond half-court—which opened up some high screen opportunities to jump-start possessions.

On the other hand, Ionescu simply hasn't shot well (6-of-23 from deep) and, as cliche as it sounds, the Liberty are going to need better than that to pull this one off. With Ionescu recently returning to the lineup, I'm curious to see how quickly she can establish a rhythm.

The Prediction: Liberty in 3

I've gone back and forth with this one. The Mercury won the regular-season series, have home-court advantage and have generally made the Liberty work to generate good stuff offensively.

On the other hand, the Liberty are finally healthy and the playoffs do represent a bit of a clean slate. They have some interesting cross-matches to play with to potentially bog down Phoenix's offense, and this remains a devastating transition attack whenever they're able to get stops.

I'm going to lean with the "upset" pick in three, but I don't feel great about it.

Confidence Score™️: 4

First Round, Part Two

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(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (7) Seattle Storm

The Intrigue: We're doing this again, huh?

Between the 2020 Finals, the 2022 semifinals and last year's first-round matchup, we've seen a lot of fireworks between these two squads.

Beyond that, there's a good bit of pressure for each side to advance. Another first-round exit for the Storm, against the same team, after giving up premium pick capital in a win-now move for Brittney Sykes (I liked the deal, to be clear) would be a tough pill to swallow.

Conversely, the Aces riding a historic win streak into the postseason, only to be upset in the first round would certainly leave a sour taste.

The Question: Who wins the battle of the 5s?

Most eyes will be on the (former) MVP battle of A'ja Wilson and Nneka Ogwumike, and for good reason. I don't have to sell you on how important they are for their respective teams.

I'm curious about what happens around them. The non-A'ja group of Aces bigs—NaLyssa Smith, Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (welcome back!), Meg Gustafson and Kiah Stokes—will have to produce in this series whenever their names are called.

Ditto for the Seattle side; Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga will need to pop, sometimes literally depending on how the Aces treat ball screens, in order to give themselves a chance. This feels like the swing group.

The Prediction: Aces in 2

The Storm are absolutely talented enough to challenge, if not defeat the Aces. There's plenty of defensive talent in the room with the ability to disrupt their half-court flow, get easy ones in transition and repeat the cycle again. We've seen that formula in their earlier regular-season matchups.

But, man, the Aces are humming right now. Wilson is playing at another level; Jackie Young is playing at an All-WNBA level. Chelsea Gray has been rolling on both ends, as is Jewell Loyd (who might have some extra motivation in this one). That, combined with some of the late-game...variance...we've seen from the Storm this year makes me feel more comfortable with the Aces taking care of business.

Confidence Score™️: 7

(3) Atlanta Dream vs. (6) Indiana Fever

The Intrigue: The Dream's plan for Kelsey Mitchell

Mitchell is almost a guarantee to earn All-WNBA honors for the first time in her career. It's just a matter of which team she lands on.

She'll likely be at the top of the Dream's scouting report because of her bucket-getting, off-ball value and improved playmaking. I really want to see how the Dream plan to deal with her.

Will Allisha Gray get that assignment, or will it be Rhyne Howard? Would head coach Karl Smesko consider throwing in a surprise lineup change to give Maya Caldwell an early crack at her?

Beyond the matchups, will the Dream continue to give Mitchell under-plus-drop coverage and try to limit the "others" from shaking loose, or will they experiment with their bigs playing more aggressively to force the ball out of her hands—and potentially into the hands of Aliyah Boston?

I'm just ready to see this one.

The Question: Who's going to execute better in the fourth quarter?

It's a styles clash in a different way. The Fever, no matter who's available in their rotation, never seem to give up. The Dream, no matter how large their lead is, seem to have these hitches during the final frame that allow teams to hang around.

If you care about clutch stats at all, I'll quickly note that the Fever have a better net rating in the clutch (+11.6) than the Dream (-14.7) despite the Dream having a slightly better record (12-11 vs 8-10).

The Prediction: Dream in 3

The Dream have the better, much healthier roster in addition to having home-court advantage. They should win this series if they take care of business.

Considering how well Mitchell and Boston have played this year, and the Fever being slated to host their first playoff game since 2016, I'd be a little surprised if this ended in two games.

Confidence Score™️: 8

The Semifinals

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(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (5) New York Liberty

The Intrigue: It's a Finals rematch

Surely I don't have to spend much time here.

The Liberty won their first championship in a five-game thriller against the Lynx last season, and the Lynx have made that everyone's problem this year.

Considering the midseason chirping between the two teams, the pseudo-playoff series we got earlier this year when they played each other three times in nine days, and Courtney Williams recently discussing the pain of the Finals loss in an awesome piece you should check out, I don't know if "revenge" serves as a strong enough descriptor.

The Question: How will Breanna Stewart be deployed?

The regular-season matchups between these two were entertaining and competitive, impressively so from the Liberty considering that Stewart missed all four matchups.

She naturally looms as a large figure in this series; she's still a top-five player, capable of shifting games on either end of the floor.

To that point, I wonder about the diet that Sandy Brondello lands on with Stewart in terms of her usage. Offensively, we'll see post-ups, screener usage, hub work and some inverted pick-and-rolls led by Stewart. Defensively, we'll see Stewart on Collier, on Alanna Smith, on Courtney Williams or Natisha Hiedeman.

Will Brondello lean more into the post-ups or the inverted pick-and-rolls for Stewart? Will Brondello prioritize Stewart's length on Collier, or will we see more guard cross-matching so the Liberty can switch more freely?

I don't know if there's a wrong answer, but I am curious to see where it lands.

The Prediction: Lynx in 5

This is what the season has been about for the Lynx: winning a championship and getting their revenge on the Liberty, in that order. I've been pretty loud in my belief that the Liberty, when healthy, are the best team in the league. But the Lynx have actually proven that this season, have home court and, within the context of this matchup (and my prior thoughts about it), have surprisingly been the better rebounding team of the two. I'll lean toward the revenge here, though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Liberty win again.

Confidence Score™️: 6

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (3) Atlanta Dream

The Intrigue:

The Question: Can the Dream find an answer for A'ja Wilson?

To be fair to the Dream, the entire league has been searching for an answer to no avail. Within the context of this matchup, it does feel a bit dire. Here's what Wilson has done against Atlanta's bigs this season:

• Naz Hillmon: 83 half-court matchups, 31 points on 30 shots (37.6 points per 100 matchups)
• Bri Jones: 37 half-court matchups, 23 points on 12 shots (62.2 per 100; not a typo!)
• Brittney Griner: 34 half-court matchups, 13 points on 12 shots (38.2 points per 100)

Hillmon is clearly the best defender of the bunch and has certainly put up a fight against Wilson. That's still over a point per shot, though, and any foul trouble for Hillmon could immediately become a problem. We may see some important Nia Coffey minutes at some point in this series.

The Prediction: Aces in 4

The Dream have been tremendous this year and could pose some interesting size and wing questions in this series. It does feel important to note that the Aces are the one (1) team they weren't able to defeat this season (0-3). Barring the Dream finding a way to somewhat contain Wilson, the Aces advance to the Finals.

Confidence Score™️: 8

The Finals

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(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (2) Las Vegas Aces

The Intrigue: The MVP battle

With all due respect to Alyssa Thomas, it's fair to acknowledge that this year's MVP award will likely be given to either A'ja Wilson or Napheesa Collier. These are the two best players in the league duking it out for a championship. Whichever of the two doesn't win the award will surely add it to their motivational cupboard.

This, my friends, is what it's all about.

The Question: How do the Aces want to guard the Lynx?

In the 53-point beatdown that jump-started the Aces' 16-game win streak, we saw Vegas lean into a bit of cross-matching. They did so in previous games, but it was notable to see them come out with Wilson getting the Courtney Williams assignment while Jackie Young took on Collier.

In theory, that would allow the Aces to switch any action featuring Williams and Collier together and keep things in front. In practice, the Lynx worked to establish paint touches for Collier, putting the Aces in rotation and opening up the floodgates from deep.

In their most recent meeting, the Aces went back to traditional matchups. Wilson took on Collier, while Young handled Williams. Wilson ultimately dominated the matchup on both ends, while Williams made quite a few tough pull-ups with Young hounding her over screens.

After switching at least 15 percent of the ball screens they saw in their first three matchups, the Aces had a switch rate of 6.9 percent in their lone win. The Lynx took 22 threes in that game, their lowest figure of their regular-season matchups.

Is that ultimately the formula the Aces want to roll with? Trusting their guards and wings to navigate instead of the switching (and cross-matching paired with it) we saw earlier? The logic would make sense; they'd just have to work really hard to replicate that success.

The Prediction: Lynx in 7

Teams that roll off win streaks like the Aces have generally win. Teams that finish the regular season with the top-ranked offense and defense like the Lynx have generally win.

There's a "team of destiny" feel to this Aces run that's hard to ignore. With that said, there are enough things the Lynx offense could poke at with Vegas' defense (and personnel) that give me pause. That, home-court advantage, and ultimately a larger sample of dominant play from the Lynx this year gives them the edge for me heading into the postseason.

I reserve the right to change my mind!

Confidence Score™️: 4