12 Teams with a Realistic Chance of Crashing the 2025 CFB Playoff
Hope springs eternal this time of year in college football. After two weeks 68 teams remain undefeated, and until that first red mark appears on the ledger, opportunity abounds.
Just how many of those teams could crash the College Football Playoff, though?
That number shrinks the field considerably. Still, we're focused on a dozen teams right now that have the roster build and the possible pedigree to make it to the final 12. To make this list, the only criteria is you couldn't have made it a year ago.
Several factors went into this like team makeup and remaining schedule—the latter of which is why an Oklahoma team that looks strong but plays seven consecutive ranked opponents (eight total remaining) isn't on the list.
From a Group of Five darling who already has taken the sport by storm in 2025 to a bunch of Power Four programs looking like possible contenders, a few have shown early-season spark that they may have what it takes.
Here are some candidates who could take their first foray into the field.
Florida State Seminoles
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Hey, look: Florida State is more than just a nice little early-season story.
This is a program rebounding from a disaster-laden, two-win 2024, sure, but they were undefeated in the regular season just two years ago and were robbed of a playoff berth due to quarterback Jordan Travis' injury.
Mike Norvell went out and restocked the shelf through the portal, led by Boston College transfer signal-caller Tommy Castellanos, veteran receivers like Squirrel White (Tennessee) and Duce Robinson (USC), and there are key offensive line and defensive pieces sprinkled in, too.
Throw in offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, and there are lots of reasons to like the trajectory of the 'Noles. By the way, while pitfalls like Virginia, Pittsburgh and North Carolina State won't be easy, the season-ender against Florida looks a lot less tough.
FSU plays just two ranked teams—home against No. 5 Miami on October 4 and at No. 12 Clemson on November 8. That's a navigable schedule for a good-looking team.
Illinois Fighting Illini
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Much like Florida State, coach Bret Bielema's team plays just two teams that are currently ranked (at No. 22 Indiana on September 20 and home against top-ranked Ohio State on October 11).
While neither of those will be gimmes, getting a schedule free of Penn State, Oregon and Michigan is a gift.
The Fighting Illini are dangerous for anybody, though. They'll be big underdogs against the Buckeyes, but that's about it.
Like always, Bielema's team is a rugged bunch with a stacked defense, led by Gabe Jacas. But this year, they also have an offense capable of producing points, led by senior quarterback Luke Altmyer. That element throws an X-factor into the equation.
After a back-and-forth start on the road at Duke this past weekend, Illinois dismantled the Blue Devils 45-19. There will be better competition, but the ACC foes aren't bad, and Bielema's team flicked them away with a dominant second half.
There's a lot to like about the makeup, veteran leadership and decent Big Ten draw when you're looking at Illinois' chances. Split the games against Ohio State and Indiana, don't slip up elsewhere, and there's a shot.
Iowa State Cyclones
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When you watch Rocco Becht out on the football field, you can just tell the kid hates to lose. He's a gamer, and that's the type of leader it takes to do special things.
They aren't used to special football things in Ames.
The last time the Cyclones won a conference was in 1912 when they shared the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association title with Nebraska. They played just two league games and won both of them.
To give you an idea of how long ago that was, the Titanic sank on its maiden voyage and the Republic of China was established the same year. New Mexico and Arizona joined the United States. So, yeah. It's been a while.
Coach Matt Campbell's team has what it takes to do it again in the Big 12. The Cyclones already won close games against rivals Kansas State (in Ireland) and Iowa. They still play Arizona, Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, TCU and Kansas, but none of those teams are ranked.
With Becht doing his wizardry, a stout defense that should be the league's best, and a two-headed running back monster, they should have a strong chance to win out.
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LSU Tigers
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Brian Kelly's seat wasn't super-hot entering this season, but he needed to prove he could win important games. This may be the team that can finally help the veteran coach accomplish that.
A season-opening 17-10 win at Clemson flashed the type of fast, aggressive defense the Tigers have been missing to go along with the elite offenses Kelly has churned out with Jayden Daniels and now Garrett Nussmeier under center.
Nussmeier is arguably the most talented quarterback, but following that nice win over Clemson, the Bayou Bengals looked disinterested in a 23-7 sleepwalk win over Louisiana Tech.
This week, they get a Florida team reeling after last week's upset loss to USF, and they'd better get the Gators while they're down.
From September 27 through November 15, LSU runs an absolutely gauntlet. Road trips to No. 17 Ole Miss, giant-slayer Vanderbilt at No. 19 Alabama are interspersed with home tilts against No. 11 South Carolina, No. 16 Texas A&M and another tough, unranked foe in Arkansas. They close the season with No. 13 Oklahoma.
You've got to think two losses with that schedule would cruise into the final 12.
Miami Hurricanes
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With future No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward setting records a season ago, you know it had to be crushing for Miami to reel off nine wins to start the season, only to get shocked in road games at Georgia Tech and Syracuse late to knock them out of the playoffs.
Well, the Hurricanes are back.
After convincing Carson Beck to postpone the NFL for a year to come to Coral Gables, they've got another offense capable of explosion, and new receivers like freshman Malachi Toney and transfer CJ Daniels are helping shore up a unit depleted by graduation and transfers.
A season-opening win over No. 6 Notre Dame was impressive.
Now, the 'Canes will run through the Sunshine State storm over the next month playing No. 18 South Florida this week, followed by another home game against Florida and a road trip to Tallahassee. They'd better not overlook Alex Golesh's Bulls.
Other tough tilts like home games against Louisville and North Carolina State and road trips to SMU and Pittsburgh won't make things easy. But Miami has some championship-caliber traits.
Are they ready to take the next step under Mario Cristobal?
Ole Miss Rebels
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Say what you want about Ole Miss' one-score win over Kentucky this past weekend. It may not have been pretty, but the Rebels overcame an injury to their starting quarterback and enacted revenge on a team that beat them a season ago.
Coach Lane Kiffin's passing offense hasn't really got clicking yet with Austin Simmons acclimating himself to all those new portal receivers. But running back Kewan Lacy looks like a star-in-the-making, and is a consistent force while the passing game comes along.
For an SEC schedule, the Rebels have a relatively navigable slate.
The next three games will be tough, but they're all at home against Arkansas, Tulane and No. 3 LSU. They also travel to Georgia and Oklahoma before hosting South Carolina later in the year.
Florida and Mississippi State to close the year could be tricky, but this is a team with a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. If Kiffin can find the right formula, this team can get over the hump that eluded them when the Gators knocked off their playoff chances late last year.
South Carolina Gamecocks
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Several last year thought that coach Shane Beamer's Gamecocks were the hottest team in the country at the end of the season and deserved consideration for the College Football Playoff.
Starting the year 3-3 was just too much to overcome, though.
Like a lot of SEC teams, the Gamecocks' '25 schedule is just brutal with games against ranked opponents on the road (Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas A&M) and at home (Oklahoma and Alabama) before ending the year hosting No. 12 Clemson.
That schedule is enough to make you wince, but Beamer has one of the nation's most exciting young players in quarterback LaNorris Sellers.
There are also former elite prospects on both lines of scrimmage and difference-makers at all levels of the defense. But you can't ever breathe easily in the SEC, and that begins with a home game against Vanderbilt this week.
South Carolina is a trendy pick for the playoffs, but it has to be ready to flex every week starting right now.
South Florida Bulls
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No team is a bigger story right now than the South Florida Bulls.
Injuries and a bad defense made them a non-factor in the AAC a season ago at 7-6, and coach Alex Golesh had a lot to prove with veteran quarterback Byrum Brown returning.
Consider a couple of green checkmarks so far.
Wins over No. 25 Boise State and No. 13 Florida to open the season has everybody's attention, and the Bulls could further shock the world with a win at No. 5 Miami this weekend. They are three-score underdogs, so a win would elevate them at least in the discussions of the top 10.
Here's the thing, though: There is exactly zero pressure or expectations on USF this weekend. Win, and they are a national program. Lose, and they still have the inside track to the Group of Five's automatic College Football Playoff berth.
Don't get me wrong—the AAC won't be easy. Games at North Texas, Memphis and Navy, along with a home game against UTSA could be tricky.
But this is a very good team, and it looks like it belongs in the playoffs where it could scare the daylights out of somebody.
TCU Horned Frogs
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The nation got an eye-opening experience on Labor Day night when Sonny Dykes' TCU Horned Frogs took the field and dominated North Carolina. We'll have to wait 19 days from then until they play anybody else.
After a bye last week and a date with Abilene Christian this weekend, the Toads will have to wait a while before potential warts are exposed. There may not be many.
This is a team that returned nine starters on both sides of the ball, has explosive playmakers on the perimeter and a seasoned quarterback nobody is talking about in Josh Hoover.
TCU plays a tough schedule for the Big 12, starting a grueling stretch September 20 with a home game against ACC foe SMU before heading to Arizona State, playing Colorado, tripping to Kansas State and then hosting Baylor. A November 8 game against No. 14 Iowa State looms, too.
But this is a veteran team, and remember Dykes had the Horned Frogs in the title game just three years ago. This is a sleeper pick for the playoffs again this year.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
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The Texas Tech Red Raiders embody the transfer portal era better than anybody.
ESPN's Max Olson reported through NIL deals and revenue sharing, coach Joey McGuire's top-rated transfer portal class will make $10 million this year.
The Red Raiders are trying to buy a title. Will it work? They certainly look like a much-improved team thus far, but they haven't played anybody yet.
Among TTU's 21 new players are defensive ends David Bailey (Stanford) and Romello Height (Georgia Tech) and offensive linemen Howard Sampson (North Carolina), Hunter Zambrano (Illinois State) and Will Jados (Miami of Ohio).
They've destroyed Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Kent State so far, scoring 67 and 62 points in those two wins. This weekend it gets a tiny bit tougher with Oregon State coming to Lubbock.
Next week's showdown with No. 20 Utah will really show us a lot, but that's the only ranked opponent on the schedule. Houston, Kansas, Arizona State and Kansas State won't be easy, either.
But this feels like things are set up for the Red Raiders to make a run.
Utah Utes
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Chalk up coach Kyle Whittingham's gamble of bringing in a package deal of bringing in a new offensive coordinator and a tailor-made quarterback who'd been running his system as a roaring success.
It's much like the scenario Oklahoma coach Brent Venables has with Ben Arbuckle coming from Washington State and bringing along John Mateer.
In Salt Lake City, former New Mexico play-caller Jason Beck is now calling the shots for the Utes, and it's a lot easier with dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier there with him. With Dampier running and throwing behind a star offensive line that boasts Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu, it's been a recipe for success.
Throw in transfer running back Wayshawn Parker, and few struck portal gold like the Utes following back-to-back disappointing seasons.
With an always-stellar defense and a schedule that has just No. 21 Texas Tech as a ranked foe, to go along with unranked toughies like Arizona State, Colorado, Baylor, Kansas State and Kansas, Whittingham's team could be back in the Big 12 title game.
Really, it feels like whoever wins the September 20 game between the Utes and the Red Raiders will have an upper hand along with Iowa State.
Washington Huskies
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If you want a true wild card nobody is talking about—and, really, what fun would a list like this be if we didn't have one—how about Jedd Fisch's Washington Huskies?
Fisch's team made a large leap in Year 2 when he was at Arizona, and even though the Huskies aren't ranked and nobody is talking about them, that roster is flat-out loaded with talent.
Jonah Coleman may be the top running back in the country, and his workhorse mentality is allowing Demond Williams Jr. to come along slowly. Denzel Boston and Dezmen Roebuck give them perimeter weapons, and the Huskies have a terrific secondary, too.
Don't forget that, even though this is a totally different team, the Huskies played for the national title two years ago.
On one hand, they've got a tough schedule with a home game against No. 1 Ohio State on September 27, a road trip to Michigan on October 18 back-to-back with a home game against No. 9 Illinois. Then, they close the season at home against No. 4 Oregon.
But those are also opportunities for Fisch's bunch to prove they can play with the big boys in the Big Ten.
This is a very good, veteran team nobody is talking about.
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