10 Ways NBA History Changes If Kawhi Leonard Never Signed with LA Clippers
In case you haven't been anywhere near the internet for the last couple days, The Athletic's Pablo Torre released a potentially groundbreaking Kawhi Leonard story on his podcast, Pablo Torre Finds Out, on Wednesday.
In short, backed by troves of documents uncovered by recent court filings and testimony from potentially involved individuals, Torre connected a "no-show job" paying Kawhi $7 million per year to his time with the Los Angeles Clippers and alleged that the team may have circumvented the NBA's salary cap when it acquired the star.
Shortly after the reporting went live, the league sent a statement to ESPN's Shams Charania that simply read: "We are aware of this morning's media report regarding the LA Clippers and are commencing an investigation."
Again, this story could prove to be massive. The most notable case of cap circumvention was resolved over 20 years ago, and the Minnesota Timberwolves were hammered with penalties that included the forfeiture of draft picks, the voiding of Joe Smith's contract and suspensions for both the team's owner and its general manager.
But we're not quite ready to dive into possible punishments for the Clippers yet. Instead, and without commenting on the merits or possible outcome of the investigation, we're simply going to ask: "What if?"
More specifically, "What if Kawhi never joined the Clippers in the summer of 2019?" What other dominoes might still be standing today? How much of the league's history would have changed?
In many ways, his free-agency decision was a massive turning point. And these are some of the biggest things that may have happened had he not made the one he did.
Toronto Raptors May Have Repeated
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Kawhi played just one season with the Toronto Raptors. It resulted in a championship, Finals MVP and playoff run with averages of 30.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.7 steals.
He was the biggest free agent on the market, but a return to Toronto may have made more sense than any other potential landing spot.
Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Serge Ibaka were all set to return for 2019-20. The Golden State Warriors, who had dominated the previous three seasons, were disbanding. And Anthony Davis had yet to join LeBron James with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Had Kawhi simply re-signed with the Raptors, they could have been among the favorites to repeat for the championship. And even with the size and depth of the Lakers squad that eventually won it all in 2020, Toronto could have beaten that team in a seven-game series.
The age of parity the league finds itself in now (no one has repeated since the Warriors in 2018) may not have tipped off when it did.
Raptors May Have Held onto Siakam and Anunoby Longer
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After Leonard's departure, Toronto remained competitive for as long as it could, but it eventually traded both Anunoby and Siakam during the 2023-24 season.
Had Kawhi stayed, one or both might still be there. And that not only would've given the Raptors a chance at multiple titles, but it also may have prevented two other Eastern Conference teams from joining its contenders' tier.
During his season and a half with the New York Knicks, their net rating is 7.5 points better with Anunoby on the floor. The net rating boost Siakam gives the Indiana Pacers is 7.6. He's clearly Indiana's second-best player. Anunoby isn't that for the Knicks, but his defense and three-point shooting make him one of their most impactful.
Barring other moves, neither New York nor Indiana would be what they are today without their former Raptors.
A Lakers Superteam
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Shortly after signing with the Clippers, Kawhi told reporters he was "very close" to signing with the Los Angeles Lakers.
If the Lakers had been able to pull off that move for Leonard and still execute the AD trade, L.A. would have had the league's next great superteam.
At that time, LeBron was 34. AD was on the verge of his own prime. And Kawhi had just had a Michael Jordan-esque playoff run on the way to a championship.
Team-ups of this level don't always lead to rings, but this one certainly would've had a chance. AD and LeBron won one title together, but their partnership post-2020 was packed with disappointment.
Had the Lakers had one of the best two-way wings of all time alongside James and Davis, their title window would have stayed open longer.
Luka Is Still a Maverick
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A domino that fell as a result of those Lakers disappointments was the Luka Dončić trade, one of the most shocking and inexplicable deals in NBA history.
If the Lakers were perennially engaged in title contention with LeBron, AD and Kawhi, the lines of communication between Rob Pelinka and Nico Harrison may never have opened on the Luka front.
Harrison may have assumed, and possibly correctly, that L.A. would have no interest in trading its defensive anchor.
Now, in just about any context, swapping Davis for Dončić would make tons of sense for the Lakers, but the mere idea of that swap—even in Harrison's mind—probably doesn't form without some inkling that Davis could be had.
Clippers Land Another Wing
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Kawhi wasn't the only high-profile wing available in free agency that summer. Had he not chosen the Clippers, L.A. may well have directed its efforts and resources elsewhere.
Given Kevin Durant's success prior to 2019 and Jimmy Butler's after, there's a real case that L.A. might have been better off with either of those players as their blockbuster acquisitions in 2019. Either star, with some of the supporting cast that helped the Clippers smash expectations in 2018-19 (when they went 48-34), could have made L.A. a contender.
That last pre-Kawhi team had Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari averaging over 40 points per game. Lou Williams won Sixth Man of the Year, thanks in large part to a dynamic two-man game with Montrezl Harrell. Most importantly, that team had a rookie named Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who'd already shown plenty of potential.
Had SGA developed alongside Durant or Butler, he almost certainly still would've become a superstar.
Paul George Stays in Oklahoma City
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It's well known that L.A. signing Kawhi in 2019 was a package deal. In the aforementioned press conference, he admitted as much.
"I was very close [to signing elsewhere]. Real close," he said. "But when [the Clippers] presented the opportunity of playing with Paul it was easy, it was a yes. I said let's get it going."
Without Leonard signing in L.A., the trade that sent SGA and a pile of other assets to OKC for Paul George wouldn't have happened. Russell Westbrook may have stayed with the Thunder a bit longer, too.
And the full-fledged rebuild that eventually led to the 2025 title would have been delayed. The exact rebuild, the one with SGA as its foundation, probably never would have happened.
OKC Never Wins a Title
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Without the trade that brought over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder almost certainly wouldn't be relishing their recent Finals victory.
General manager Sam Presti has nailed seemingly every marginal move, but OKC doesn't have a championship parade without SGA and Jalen Williams (who was selected with one of the draft picks L.A. sent for Paul George).
The former was the league and Finals MVP in 2024-25. The latter averaged 21.4 points and 4.8 assists during the postseason.
They are the centerpieces of perhaps the swiftest and most successful rebuild in league history.
SGA's MVP
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This one isn't titled something like "Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Wouldn't Have an MVP" because, frankly, his skill and self-determination may have landed him one, regardless of where he played.
OKC obviously deserves a lot of credit for his development, but he may well have had a similar trajectory with the Clippers.
So, this is simply about how his MVP probably just feels a little different without the Kawhi signing and PG trade. Perhaps it would have taken him a bit longer to get there with others like Durant or Butler potentially taking scoring opportunities from him.
But make no mistake, SGA is one of the best guard talents the NBA has seen since MJ. And talents at his level typically make their way to at least one MVP nod.
A Clippers Championship
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If we assume a similar developmental trend for SGA in L.A. and give the Clippers Jalen Williams, there's a real chance they're the ones celebrating a title this summer.
That duo has the potential to be one of the best one-two punches we've seen in recent history. And it's clearly been more reliable than Kawhi and PG.
They did help L.A. reach the conference finals in 2021, but injuries have defined much of their time with the organization. Even in '21, Leonard wasn't available by the end of the run.
There was no way the front office could have known at the time they landed George and Leonard in 2019, but SGA and draft picks were a much safer bet.
Kawhi's Completely Different Legacy
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If you've been an NBA fan long enough to remember the early portion of Kawhi's career, the last several years are probably a little surprising.
With the San Antonio Spurs, he seemed about as humble and unassuming as any NBA superstar could be. His approach to the game seemed almost robotic. The directive was winning. And nothing else mattered.
But now, despite two Finals MVPs and two Defensive Player of the Year nods, future NBA historians may first focus on the recent salary-cap circumvention allegations and his controversial team exits.
His departure from San Antonio was ugly. Torre has resurfaced questions about his quick exit from Toronto. And this story about the "no-show job" and its possible connection to the Clippers could ultimately define his time with this team.
For a player with Leonard's accomplishments and abilities, the self-inflicted redefining of his legacy is a shame.
