MLB's Biggest Offseason Storylines Already Brewing
As the MLB playoff push starts to heat up, many of the league's teams have already turned their attention to the upcoming offseason and building toward a better outcome in 2026.
While the 2025-26 free-agent class doesn't feature Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, it still boasts impact talent. Kyle Tucker headlines the group, which also includes intriguing opt-out candidates and a volatile crop of starting pitchers.
A lot can still change between now and the conclusion of the 2025 World Series, but let's take an early look at some of the biggest offseason headlines that are already brewing here in late August.
Adley Rutschman: Trade Chip? Extension Candidate? Wait and See?
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The Baltimore Orioles locked up a major piece of their future puzzle when they inked top prospect Samuel Basallo to an eight-year, $67 million extension less than a week after he made his MLB debut.
The 21-year-old has been viewed as one of baseball's top catching prospects since his breakout 2023 season. However, defensive question marks remain. At Triple-A, he split his time between catcher (33 starts), first base (20), and designated hitter (20).
His future might be a role similar to the one Ben Rice has filled this year for the New York Yankees, with the bulk of his time spent at first base and designated hitter, and the occasional start behind the plate.
Regardless of whether he is a full-time catcher or simply an occasional option at the position, the extension has immediately raised questions about the future of incumbent catcher Adley Rutschman.
The two-time All-Star looked like a franchise cornerstone not long ago, but he struggled during the second half of the 2024 season, and he has not rebounded as hoped this year with a 91 OPS+ and 1.7 WAR in 85 games.
With two years of club control remaining, the O's could look to flip Rutschman for starting pitching help, or he himself could be an extension candidate if the franchise believes he can return to his elite-level production at a premium position.
One way or another, Rutschman will be a frequent focus of offseason headlines.
Will the Twins Keep Dismantling the Roster?
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The AL Central champions in 2023 and an 82-win team in 2024, the Minnesota Twins entered the 2025 campaign looking to contend for a playoff berth and another division title.
Instead, they put together one of the biggest fire sales in recent trade deadline history after a disappointing start to the year, ultimately trading away 10 players from the 26-man big league roster, including a salary dump of Carlos Correa.
What's next?
There are still valuable trade pieces on the roster, most notably starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Pablo López, and longtime center fielder Byron Buxton.
Are those three considered building blocks for the next competitive Twins team, or are they the next high-profile names out the door?
It was revealed shortly after the dust settled on their busy deadline that standout reliever Griffin Jax had requested a trade ahead of being dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays, and it's not out of the question to think more players could follow suit this winter if a long rebuild is on the horizon.
Is Kyle Schwarber a $100 Million Player?
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Last time he hit the open market, Kyle Schwarber signed a four-year, $79 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies following a 2021 season where he posted a 149 OPS+ with 32 home runs and 3.5 WAR in 113 games.
The $19.75 million AAV of that contract stands as the largest figure ever given to a DH, excluding Shohei Ohtani's massive $700 million deal, and the slugger is poised to blow past that number this winter.
During his four years in Philadelphia, Schwarber has crushed 176 home runs, a total that trails only Aaron Judge (197) and Shohei Ohtani (177) and far exceeds the 149 home runs hit by Pete Alonso who is also expected to join the 2025-26 free-agent class by opting out.
This season, Schwarber has a 154 OPS+ and he currently leads the NL in home runs (45) and RBI (109) with a real shot at the first 50-homer season of his career.
Few players on the market are capable of completely transforming an offense, but he can turn a middling offense into a legitimate threat with his top-tier power and elite on-base ability.
Is a four-year, $120 million deal too much to pay for that sort of impact?
We shall see.
Is There a $100M Arm in the 2025-26 Starting Pitching Class?
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I wrote our way-too-early big board for the 2025-26 free-agent class in April, and high-end starting pitching was a focal point, with the following pitchers earning a spot inside the top 10:
2. RHP Dylan Cease
3. RHP Zac Gallen
5. LHP Framber Valdez
6. RHP Michael King
8. LHP Ranger Suarez
Max Fried (8/$218M), Corbin Burnes (6/$210M) and Blake Snell (5/$182M) were the only pitchers to secure a payday north of $100 million last winter, with guys like Nathan Eovaldi (3/$75M), Sean Manaea (3/$75M), Luis Severino (3/$67M), Nick Pivetta (4/$55M) and Yusei Kikuchi (3/$63.7M) representing the next tier of the market.
Will anyone from the upcoming class reach that $100 million mark?
Age and track record made Cease (26 GS, 4.71 ERA, 137.2 IP) and Gallen (27 GS, 5.13 ERA, 156.0 IP) the most likely candidates, but both have struggled.
Valdez (32 in November), King (11 starts in 2025 due to injury) and Suárez (never made 30 starts in a season) all have warts, but they have posted better numbers and could approach that number based on how the market unfolds.
There is no slam-dunk ace in this class, and that makes it one of the more compelling stories of the winter.
End of the Road for Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander?
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The three greatest pitchers of a generation are all coming down the home stretch of Hall of Fame careers, but will they continue pitching in 2026?
Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are no longer the pitchers they were in their respective primes, but all three have proved they still have something left in the tank this season.
Kershaw (37): 16 GS, 3.13 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 52 K, 83.1 IP
Scherzer (41): 11 GS, 3.60 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, 56 K, 60.0 IP
Verlander (42): 22 GS, 4.64 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 99 K, 110.2 IP
All three would find no shortage of interested teams on a one-year deal, but all three also all have a ring and all the career accolades needed to secure their place in Cooperstown and are among the greatest to ever toe a big league mound.
While seeing all three inducted together in five years' time would be historic, it is also remarkable to watch these legends continue excelling late in their careers.
They won't reshape the market, but their status for the 2026 season will be a frequent talking point this offseason.
Bo Bichette Will Be One of the More Polarizing Free Agents in Recent Memory
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One of baseball's elite offensive players during the 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons, Bo Bichette saw his production crater during an injury-plagued 2024 campaign where he hit .225/.277/.322 with -0.3 WAR in 81 games.
A significant unknown entering a contract year, he has rebounded nicely at the plate, hitting .304/.348/.471 for a 124 OPS+ while leading the AL in hits (164) and doubles (40).
However, his poor defense continues to undercut his overall value.
He ranks dead last among all shortstops in Outs Above Average (-11), Fielding Run Value (-8) and DEF (-4.3), providing a strong case for the title of worst defensive shortstop in baseball.
His offensive impact and the fact that he does not turn 28 years old until next March make him one of the most appealing hitters on the market, but will teams target him as a shortstop, or look to move him to a less demanding defensive position?
Expect a wide range of views on the Blue Jays star this winter.
10 Players Who Could Be Next to Receive Long-Term Extensions
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The talk of the offseason is always players joining new teams in free agency and on the trade market, but it's also a time when teams lock up their own in-house talent with long-term extensions.
Zack Wheeler (3/$126M), Jose Altuve (5/$125M), Ketel Marte (6/$116.5M), Cal Raleigh (6/$105M), Tommy Edman (5/$74M), Lawrence Butler (7/$65.5M) and Brent Rooker (5/$60M) were among the notable players to sign extensions between the end of the 2024 season and start of the 2025 campaign.
Which players might be next to lock in with their current teams for the long term?
Here is a speculative list of the most likely offseason extension candidates:
SP Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
3B Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
SS Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
SP Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
OF Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
SS Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles
1B Nick Kurtz, Athletics
SS Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
SS Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals
OF James Wood, Washington Nationals
They won't all sign long-term deals, but it would be a mild surprise if at least one or two of these guys are not locked up this winter.
The Munetaka Murakami Sweepstakes
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Seiya Suzuki in 2022
Kodai Senga and Masataka Yoshida in 2023
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga in 2024
Roki Sasaki in 2025
Which Japanese League star will be next to take the MLB offseason by storm?
The smart money is on Munetaka Murakami.
The 25-year-old has been viewed as a potential future MLB star since his 56-homer, 134-RBI season in 2022 at the age of 22. And while he has missed significant time this year recovering from elbow surgery, he is still a young slugger with middle-of-the-order upside.
It sounds like his current team, the Yakult Swallows, are open to posting him this winter if he makes the request.
"If he wishes for it, we are willing to submit a posting system application for him," Swallows owner Tetsuya Hayashida told reporters in June. "Our hope is for him to succeed. He supported the team so much in such a short period and made a big contribution. He's a player we care a lot about."
A third baseman in Japan, he might fit best at first base long-term, but it's his power bat that will have MLB teams circling this winter.
Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Cody Bellinger Headline List of Opt-Out Candidates
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One of the first big storylines of any MLB offseason is opt-out decisions for players who have relevant clauses in their contracts, with the deadline to pull the trigger on an opt-out set at five days after the conclusion of the World Series.
Here are the five biggest opt-out decisions of the 2025-26 offseason, and the money they would potentially be leaving on the table if they did exercise their opt-out clause:
1B Pete Alonso, NYM—one year, $24 million
OF Cody Bellinger, NYY—one year, $25 million
3B Alex Bregman, BOS—two years, $80 million
RP Edwin Díaz, NYM—two years, $38 million
RP Robert Suárez, SD—two years, $16 million
Opting out should be a no-brainer for Alonso, Bellinger and Suárez relative to their expected market values, and all three could decide to leave money on the table and aim for a larger guarantee.
Of course, that doesn't mean they won't find their way back to their current teams, but opening up their availability to all 30 teams always creates the potential for an offer they can't refuse.
Kyle Tucker Poised to Join Aaron Judge, Juan Soto as $40M AAV Outfielder
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Despite a second-half slump that can be attributed to a recently revealed hairline fracture in his hand, Kyle Tucker is still the clear front-runner to receive the largest payday of the 2025-26 free-agent class.
The 28-year-old outfielder has a 144 OPS+ with 21 home runs, 25 steals and 4.6 WAR in 125 games, even with a .202/.346/.346 line and only four long balls in 129 plate appearances since the All-Star break.
Since the start of the 2021 season—his first as an everyday player in the big leagues—his 25.5 WAR is tied with Francisco Lindor for the seventh-most of any position player, behind only Aaron Judge (38.8), Juan Soto (30.6), Shohei Ohtani (29.2), José Ramírez (29.1), Marcus Semien (27.9) and Mookie Betts (27.3).
The first two names on that list will be important when Tucker sits down at the negotiating table.
Soto ($51 million) and Judge ($40 million) have the highest average annual value on their current contracts of any outfielders in MLB history, and Tucker will likely be aiming to join that exclusive group.
A seven-year, $280 million deal could be Tucker's minimum in negotiations. With nearly every top spender likely to pursue him, the eventual contract might be even larger.
