2026 NBA Award Favorites, Sleepers and Wild Cards
It's never too early to start talking about NBA awards. Especially when you're adding a twist.
Rather than run through the usual predictions in each category, we're going to spotlight three different types of candidates worth monitoring for every honor:
- The Favorite: The player you should expect to see atop most preseason predictions.
- The Sleeper: Someone on the fringes of the discussion who would not appear in the top five of (most) preseason ballots.
- The Wild Card: Anyone who wouldn't be cameoing in one of the top 10 spots if we tallied up the necessary point totals on preseason ballots.
And let's keep this exercise realistic.
Rookie of the Year
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The Favorite: Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks
Kudos to anyone who picks someone other than Flagg to win Rookie of the Year. You're braver than I and just about any NBA prognosticator.
It's possible Flagg's offensive performance could be rough—Mavs head coach Jason Kidd plans to have him run point in Kyrie Irving's absence. The production will be there, as will the defensive playmaking. This feels like a lock.
The Sleeper: Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards
Anyone who isn't Cooper Flagg qualifies as a sleeper. The next most popular pick after him will probably be Ace Bailey. But Tre Johnson's shooting and overall scoring acumen will be a boon for a Wizards offense still searching for its primary bucket-getter.
The Wild Card: Egor Dёmin, Brooklyn Nets
Demin quelled some of the draft-night "Really? Him?!?" reactions by proving he can work away from the ball on offense during summer league. Even after the Nets selected a trillion potential creators in the first round, he'll have a prominent role that translates to standout scoring and assist averages.
Clutch Player of the Year
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The Favorite: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves
Clutch Player of the Year is the most randomized of the main awards. Forecasting which teams will play enough nail-biters for their primary offensive options to get the nod is tough.
Last year's Timberwolves had a nagging tendency to make things harder than necessary. Only two teams logged more minutes in the clutch. If Minnesota can improve its record in those situations (20-26) and Edwards becomes a bit more efficient, voilà—you've got your favorite.
The Sleeper: Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks
Young had a top-five usage rate in the clutch last year. Despite all of their improvements, we continue to know who the Hawks are going to down the stretch. Better spacing around Young should help lift the sub-45 effective field-goal percentage he posted in 2024-25 and earn him more attention.
The Wild Card: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
Herro shooting 19 percent from deep in the clutch last year contributed to Miami's disastrous late-game showings. A sturdier secondary pecking order following the addition of Norman Powell will go a long way toward opening things up for him. Plus, the Heat remain just good-not-great enough that you can envision them leading the league again in crunch-time minutes.
Sixth Man of the Year
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The Favorite: De'Andre Hunter/Max Strus, Cleveland Cavaliers
Sixth Man of the Year is no longer as heavily geared toward microwave scorers. Volume bucket-getting still piques attention, but voters are now just as likely to recognize critical bench players for good teams. Having a realistic path to closing games helps, too.
Whichever Cavs wing doesn't start belongs here. Hunter filled that role last year. Strus' inclusion is a safeguard in case head coach Kenny Atkinson changes things up.
The Sleeper: Scotty Pippen Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
Pippen is a solid offensive steward who has shot the three-ball well each of the past two seasons while playing feisty defense. He would rank higher in the pecking order if not for Ty Jerome's arrival potentially infringing on his role. There is also the possibility that Pippen gets too many starts if Ja Morant misses time.
The Wild Card: Josh Hart, New York Knicks
Nothing screams "Wild Card!" like picking someone who started in each of his 77 regular-season games last year. Then-Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau eventually moved him to the bench during the playoffs in favor of a dual-big arrangement with Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Current head honcho Mike Brown may be destined to do the same if New York did, in fact, prioritize Guerschon Yabusele during free agency because of his versatility off the pine behind a two-center starting five.
Most Improved Player
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The Favorite: Bennedict Mathurin/Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers
At least one of Mathurin or Nembhard will need to go off on offense for the Pacers to navigate the regular season without Tyrese Haliburton. Mathurin could get the edge after head coach Rick Carlisle revealed to Caitlin Cooper of Basketball, She Wrote that he's going to start. But Nembhard should have more control over running the entire offense and might just make #PlayoffNembhard his default.
The Sleeper: Trey Murphy, New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans has done a bang-up job of burying Murphy in the pecking order with the additions of Jeremiah Fears, Derik Queen and Jordan Poole. Zion Williamson isn't going anywhere, either.
Given this team's propensity for injuries—Queen is already hurt—Murphy should still get tons of opportunities. Don't rule out a Tyrese Maxey Year 3-to-Year 4 scoring jump from him.
The Wild Card: Reed Sheppard, Houston Rockets
Just seven second-year players have won Most Improved honors. It hasn't happened since Monta Ellis did it in 2006-07.
Houston's offseason has nevertheless unfolded like its banking on Sheppard assuming a major role. Kevin Durant should lead the team in scoring, but he's not hard-wired to run the offense. Sheppard should get plenty of cracks at directing the show. If he performs well from the outset, it could set the stage for more minutes and a breakout sophomore season.
Defensive Player of the Year
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The Favorite: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Unless you think Wembanyama will fail to meet the games-played threshold for a third consecutive year, we must acknowledge two things: This award is his to lose, and it may one day be named after him.
The Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers
Zubac has quietly ranked among the league's most valuable rim protectors for a while. Recognition for his body of work finally came last season, in the form of a top-six Defensive Player of the Year finish.
Improving upon that placement will be difficult. The Clippers leaned hard into offense-first talent acquisition over the summer. Then again, this provides Zubac with a clear roadmap to even more attention: anchor an elite defense for a team that has (slightly) deemphasized it.
The Wild Card: Jalen Suggs, Orlando Magic
Only three perimeter players have picked up a Defensive Player of the Year victory since 2000: Metta World Peace, Kawhi Leonard (twice) and Marcus Smart. Suggs' intensity is cut from the same mold, and the Magic now have just enough national TV exposure for people to take notice of their top-five defense.
MVP
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The Favorite: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is good enough to nab this spot, but playing for an ultra-deep powerhouse hurts his case.
Being your team's only lifeline to title contention resonates more. Jokić remains that for the Nuggets. And yes, it helps that he's the near-consensus best player in the world.
The Sleeper: Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks
Brunson slipped from fifth in MVP voting for 2023-24 to 10th in 2024-25. That's the perils of playing alongside another All-NBA talent (Karl-Anthony Towns) and on a maddeningly frustrating team.
The Knicks should be good enough to keep Brunson within MVP striking distance. His stock will go through the roof if he remains among the 10 to 15 best players while headlining what should be a more egalitarian/variable offense under head coach Mike Brown.
The Wild Card: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic
Nobody should rule out the Magic finishing as the Eastern Conference's No. 1 or No. 2 seed. Cleveland and New York may not push as hard for regular-season victories. Orlando is younger, hungrier and has more to prove.
Banchero will be the natural candidate if the Magic go kaboom. And before you blather on about his efficiency, the spacing around him is no longer absolute butt. If the Magic finish as a top-two team in the East, it will be because Banchero has made the All-NBA leap.
Dan Favale is a National NBA Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
