B/R's 2025 CFB Dark-Horse Conference Champion Bets

This time of year, chalk tends to rule.

As the college football season lumbers closer, favorites often get a workout as discussions mount. And over the coming weeks, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama—among others—will be supported with regularity and great confidence.

You’ll find absolutely none of those teams here. 

No, this exercise for those in search of something, well, bold.

In search of value, we’re diving deep while making our dark horse conference championship picks before the season hits. Although each team mentioned is a dark horse for a reason (or two or more), that doesn’t mean they can’t inject some chaos into the CFB ecosystem.

For further proof of this, look at Arizona State one short season ago. The eventual Big 12 champion could have been yours for 100/1 to win the conference before last season began.

As for potential programs capable of producing unexpected title runs, here they are.

Georgia Tech To Win ACC: (+1200)

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While little outside of Clemson feels guaranteed in the ACC, here’s what Georgia Tech, barring injury, is guaranteed to offer. At quarterback and running back, they are exceptional. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes are one of the more delightful backfields in all of college football—a combination of skill and toughness that matchup with anyone, including the Tigers.

And last year, the Yellow Jackets did just that. 

Indeed, they won just seven games. But outside back-to-back defeats to Notre Dame and Virginia Tech, this team was competitive pretty much everywhere else.

The last two losses, an eight-overtime thriller to Georgia along with a 35-27 loss to Vanderbilt in the Birmingham Bowl, paint an accurate picture of a scrappy team that was a few plays away throughout.

While Georgia is still on the schedule, the conference docket is conducive to winning a lot of games. Georgia Tech won’t play Miami, SMU or Louisville during the regular season. And its games against Clemson, the prohibitive favorite to win the ACC, will be played at home.

The defense, which finished ninth in scoring in the ACC last season, must take a step forward—especially when it comes to sacks and takeaways. There are a slew of new faces along with plenty of returning reps that make this a possibility.

Keeping King healthy, which wasn’t necessarily easy last year, is also vital. Given his delightful, improvisational style, both he and the staff will have to ensure he limits the opportunities for collisions this year.

The QB is in place, and the schedule sets up well. If this scrappy team finds another gear, look out.

Texas A&M To Win SEC (+1500)

As is typically the case, winning the SEC will not come easy. 

The conference has remarkable depth, and most road contests will require a team to overcome a ravenous environment. With that acknowledged, Texas A&M has the necessary ingredients to navigate such a journey.

Heck, we nearly got there last season. 

It starts with an offensive line that should be one of the best in the country. On top of that, the Aggies also have electric skill talent in the form of running back Le’Veon Moss, who missed a good chunk of last year due to injury, along with transfer wideouts KC Concepcion and Mario Craver.

The key ingredient, however, is quarterback Marcel Reed, who thrived as a freshman when thrown into the starting role. If Reed can grow, specifically as a passer, this offense has a chance to thrive.

Defensively, one can only assume that a Mike Elko-coached team will make improvements. Elko, who will be more involved in terms of play calling, has plenty of work to do. The Aggies will get back a slew of players from injury—along with a series of portal additions—although this side of the ball will need to catch up.

Although the schedule is by no means easy, it’s relatively kind by SEC standards. An early out-of-conference game at Notre Dame should provide ample road experience, while a three-game road stretch against Arkansas, LSU and Missouri will likely tell the story one way or another.

If the defense can take another leap, A&M could be in position to crash the SEC Championship Game once again.

Iowa To Win Big Ten (+3500)

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Let’s make something abundantly clear.

The optics of picking a team that has become the poster child for offensive ineptitude are not ideal. Iowa finished No. 72 in scoring offense last season, and this was actually a massive leap over the previous years.

That is not exactly the best way to sell a bet, although there are reasons to believe Iowa could find a new gear in 2025. It starts at quarterback, and the Hawkeyes have about as much hope as they’ve had in some time with the addition of Mark Gronowski.

The South Dakota State transfer has accumulated more than 10,000 yards passing and 1,700 yards rushing in his career. He gives the Hawkeyes a hope, as does an offensive line that should be one of the best in the conference.

While the loss of running back Kaleb Johnson stings, the line, coupled with an additional threat to actually successfully throw the ball, should allow this running game to succeed.

While Penn State and Oregon are both on the schedule, both games will be at home. Road games at USC, Wisconsin and Nebraska will certainly be a test, but Iowa is capable of winning all three.

The core of this team, of course, is the defense, and it should thrive up front. Add in elite special teams, another Iowa staple, and one can’t help but wonder how a team with a functioning offense would perform with so many additional pieces in place.

Kansas To Win Big 12 (+1800)

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What could go wrong in 2024, largely did go wrong for the Jayhawks. 

Well, at least early on.

Kansas lost five of its first six games by a combined 27 points. All told, it lost five games by a touchdown or less. This included losses against Illinois, Arizona State and Kansas State—three programs that all found varying degrees of success.

Late in the season, however, the Jayhawks found a rhythm by winning three straight games over Iowa State, BYU and Colorado. All teams were ranked at the time.

So, now what?

The answer starts in a familiar place with quarterback Jalon Daniels, who feels like he’s spent the past decade in Lawrence. It’ll be up to Jim Zebrowski, the team’s new OC, to make the most out of Daniels’ final collegiate ceiling. If the QB can stay healthy—and that has become a question—the offense should put up plenty of points.

The defense finished No. 10 in scoring in the Big 12, and it’s in a position to improve. While it likely won’t be mistaken for Utah, it has a chance to climb in the upper half of the conference. But make no mistake about it: This team needs to score.

Kansas won’t play Arizona State, and the Jayhawks play Kansas State at home. Road trips to Texas Tech and Iowa State won’t be easy, although unpacking this conference, as seen last season, could be challenging.

Given the team’s value and the many unknowns elsewhere, one could do worse than back the Jayhawks.

Other Dark Horses Worth Considering

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North Texas to win the American Conference Championship (+1200)

If the defense can find another gear and the offense can continue to find success, which has quickly become the norm, North Texas should go from a consistent matchup issue to true AAC threat.

Old Dominion to Win Sun Belt (+800)

A strong running game should once again be the driving force behind a team that is gaining momentum and could take a dramatic leap forward. While there are bigger names in the conference, this is a fun squad.

Miami (OH) to Win MAC (+700)

Despite dealing with a slew of losses on both sides of the ball, Miami adds a fascinating transfer QB in Dequan Finn who could quickly become one of the best players in the conference.