What Are Reasonable Rookie Expecations for New England Patriots DT Malcom Brown?

The New England Patriots coudn't have drawn up their first-round pick any better if they tried.

Defensive tackle Malcom Brown was projected by many outlets (including CBS Sports and Walter Football) to be taken anywhere from the top-half of the first round to the late-teens and early 20s. So, when he fell to the Patriots at No. 32, there was obvious reason for excitement.

The Patriots have invested heavily in their defensive front seven over the past few years in the NFL draft, including back-to-back first-round picks in Brown and Dominique Easley last year. Couple the addition of those two talents with the development of nose tackle Sealver Siliga and the Patriots have assembled a young, talented defensive interior.

But what can we reasonably expect out of Brown in his rookie season?

Player	Pos	G	St.	Tk	Ast	Sk	PD	FF	FR
Aaron Donald	DT	16	12	37	10	9	1	2	0
Dominique Easley	DT	11	2	6	3	1	1	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	DE	16	15	42	35	3.5	1	1	0
Star Lotulelei	DT	16	16	34	14	3	0	0	0
Sharrif Floyd	DT	16	1	9	10	2.5	2	1	0
Datone Jones	DE	16	0	8	3	3.5	0	0	1
Sylvester Williams	DT	13	4	14	8	2	0	0	1
Dontari Poe	NT	16	16	28	10	0	4	0	0
Fletcher Cox	DT	15	9	32	7	5.5	4	1	0
Michael Brockers	DT	13	12	20	11	4	1	1	0
Marcell Dareus	DT	16	15	32	11	5.5	1	0	1
J.J. Watt	DE	16	16	48	8	5.5	4	0	2
Corey Liuget	DE	15	13	14	5	1	2	1	1
Phil Taylor	NT	16	16	37	22	4	1	1	0
Muhammad Wilkerson	DE	16	16	35	14	3	2	1	0
Cameron Heyward	DE	16	0	10	1	1	1	1	0

Above is a list of all the players drafted in the first round over the past four years fitting a similar mold to Brown (4-3 defensive tackle/3-4 defensive end hybrids). The Patriots aren't the only team to put a premium on interior defensive linemen in recent years; the demand has skyrocketed for big men who can play in the trenches.

They are, however, one of the few teams that does not pigeonhole its players into one scheme or another, but rather asks them to play a number of different spots in different schemes on a week-to-week, series-to-series and even a play-to-play basis. The Patriots flow freely from 3-4 to 4-3 at any time, depending on the situation and the opponent. 

That makes it difficult to nail down a threshold for reasonable expectations. One week, they could be charging upfield and getting into the offensive backfield. The next week, they could be charged with holding their lanes and two-gapping so that the linebackers behind them can make plays. Under Bill Belichick, it's usually a lot more of the latter than the former. 

That being said, most of the defensive linemen listed above pulled in between 20 and 30 tackles, 10 assists, three to five sacks, batted a pass or two at the line of scrimmage and forced a fumble. 

Belichick sees Brown as a fit for his defense based on his ability to line up in multiple spots, but he has also noted that he is athletic for a man of his size. 

Of course, a 4-3 defense would allow Brown to better make use of his combination of size and athleticism than a read-and-react 3-4 front would. It's plain to see in the stat sheet above that the defensive tackles (4-3) often wind up with more sacks than the defensive ends (3-4). 

Depending on how the Patriots use Brown, though, the rookie first-rounder could be an exception to that rule. Richard Seymour notched eight sacks in his third year in the NFL, and Ty Warren logged 7.5 sacks in his fourth year. Brown wouldn't be the first interior defensive lineman to notch a respectable sack total. 

Easley could be considered an outlier in that group, with low stat totals that are characteristic of his limited playing time—not to mention the fact that he ended the season on injured reserve (ACL). He is considered more of a penetrating interior lineman than a two-gap, run-stuffing monster in the middle, so expect him to carry out that role next year. Brown, on the other hand, has been a much better run-stuffer than pass-rusher. But it's how he's achieved that status that is interesting. 

Source: Pro Football Focus

He registered 10.5 sacks in his Texas career, but according to Pro Football Focus, Brown dominated in the running game. That being said, he did so in a way that makes him an intriguing fit in the Patriots defense.

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The strengths of his play are clear and evident when watching him—he has very quick and strong hands that allow him to shed blocks even when he is in a losing position—and when Brown got it right, he was one of the most disruptive forces against the run last season. With no intention of trying to hold up blocks, it’s all attack to beat the blocker for Brown, something he did on a consistent basis. ...

With the ability to beat blocks in the run game, you would expect more production from him rushing the passer, but with lineman not coming toward him he struggles to use his hand ability in the same way since he does not have the explosion to couple with it. If Brown doesn’t win with his hands, he does not have a quick enough step off the ball to get to the outside on a consistent basis, nor does he have a second move that cause offensive lineman any stress.

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Perhaps the Patriots plan to employ a more aggressive style of defense that asks its defensive linemen to charge upfield and beat their blocker. That would seem to be a perfect fit for both Easley and Brown, but it would fly in the face of what the Patriots have done on defense for years.

There's something to be said for adjusting the scheme to match the personnel; it appears that, with Brown and Easley on the line, the Patriots might be better off rethinking and retooling their defensive strategy. 

If the coaching staff is willing to work with what they have, rather than try to jam square pegs into round holes, Easley and Brown could both be in for solid campaigns.