1 Overreaction to Every WNBA Team's 2025 Season So Far
We're a little over a quarter of the way through the 2025 WNBA season. It's not enough to write a team's future in pen, but we have enough of a sample to have a decent idea of what these teams are and aren't.
With that sample comes takes: lots and lots of takes.
There have been some pretty wild statements made throughout this season. Calls for trades, benchings, coach firings, thoughts on player rankings: You name it, I've heard it or seen it. Instead of being annoyed by some of these aggressive opinions, the purpose of this piece is to explore them.
This is supposed to be both fun and illuminating: You're either going to get a well-reasoned rebuttal, or a little ammo for the next time you talk about your favorite teams and players with your friends.
Let's dig in, shall we?
Atlanta Dream
1 of 13
The Overreaction: The Dream shouldn't have signed Brittney Griner
Major waves were made during the offseason when the Dream hired Karl Smesko as their new head coach, then followed that up by adding a pair of All-Star centers in Griner and Bri Jones. It felt a tad bit contradictory at the time: Hire a new coach known for three-point shooting and a high offensive pace, then give him a pair of bigs who combined to take 32 threes last season.
To this point of the season, Griner has played below her usual, future-Hall of Fame level. She's logging career lows in minutes (23.8), points (10.1), rebounds (5.6), assists (0.8), steals (0.1) and blocks (1.3) per game while not being too far off her career low in overall efficiency (54.8 True Shooting, 54.2 in 2019).
The Verdict: I get it, but I can't get there
While it certainly hasn't been the best year for Griner, she's still one of the most respected players in the league. Per Second Spectrum, Griner has garnered the attention of a second defender, or a flat-out double team, on over 13 percent of her touches this season—one of the highest marks in the league.
There are only six players in the league who have logged at least 50 post-ups while generating at least 1.00 points per possession on those trips. Griner is one of them (103, 1.02 PPP). Her ability to score outright, draw fouls over helpless defenders, or find open players when extra attention comes still serve as valuable additions to Atlanta's offense.
Now, the two-big alignment of Jones and Griner hasn't hit to a major degree. The Dream have outscored opponents by 1.6 points per 100 possessions with both bigs on the floor together, and they've been much better with Jones on the floor without Griner (plus-12.3 in 288 minutes). However, they're also winning the minutes with Griner on the floor without Jones (plus-3.8 in 132 minutes), giving the Dream effective, winning center play across 40 minutes of action.
It hasn't been perfect, but the optionality itself—we can size up with both, stagger the bigs, or simply go small (they have won the 30 minutes with Griner and Jones on the bench by 13 points)—was part of the intrigue of signing both in the first place. Heck, on a very basic level, Griner being in Atlanta means she isn't back in Phoenix or in a new spot like Las Vegas, a team that recently made a deal to address their frontcourt.
Chicago Sky
2 of 13
The Overreaction: Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso can't play together
We haven't seen the three-point explosion in the WNBA to the same levels that have been reached in the NBA, but we're slowly making our way there. A cursory look at the Valkyries, Liberty and Dream signify a shift on that front.
Beyond three-point shooting, being able to space the floor well and generate half-court advantages is incredibly important; and it's flat-out difficult to do with a frontcourt pairing that doesn't garner much attention away from the rim.
The Sky have been outscored by nearly 15 points per 100 possessions with Reese and Cardoso on the floor together this year; that's not going to cut it. Add in the recent explosion with Reese at the 5—20.5 points, 17.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.0 blocks over the last two games—and it's clear that this experiment should come to an end soon.
The Verdict: Let's slow down, please
It is more difficult to work around a frontcourt without a pure stretch element, but that certainly doesn't make it impossible. To the credit of head coach Tyler Marsh, he's worked to move Reese and Cardoso across the board—and often opposite of each other when involved in action—to manufacture strain on defenses.
There have been natural kinks to work through, but look no further than the pairing's most recent outing together, a June 24 win over the Los Angeles Sparks, to see what things could look like. Cardoso finished with an efficient 27 points, while Reese filled the stat sheet with 18 points, 17 rebounds, six assists and four steals.
Between Cardoso's post work and Reese's playmaking ability and overall versatility, the outline for high-low chemistry is there—and we've seen it in spurts this season. There's obvious value between the two on the offensive glass: the Sky are rebounding nearly 37 percent of their own misses, trailing only the Dallas Wings (37.6) in that metric.
Between Rachel Banham (filling in admirably as starting point guard as of late), Ariel Atkins and Rebecca Allen, you should have (in theory) a reasonable amount of shooting around the Reese-Cardoso pairing. To this point, that five-player grouping has shot a combined 4-of-19 from three in their minutes together; that feels like something that should improve dramatically with a larger sample.
Connecticut Sun
3 of 13
The Overreaction: This is the worst team in WNBA history
The Sun don't just hold the league's worst record at 2-15—they've been getting blitzed as of late. They're riding an eight-game losing streak, with six of those losses coming by double digits. On the year, 11 of their 15 losses have been by at least 10 points.
The Sun currently rank last in offensive rating (90.4) and defensive rating (113.2), a "feat" that hasn't been accomplished since the 2022 Indiana Fever. But even the Fever weren't as bad as this Sun team is on track to be.
Heading into this season, the 1998 Washington Mystics held the crown for worst team in league history in terms of net rating, being outscored by an absurd 19.4 points per 100 possessions during their 3-26 campaign. As of this writing, the Sun are being outscored by 22.8 points per 100 possessions—over three points worse than the worst team in history.
The Verdict: Until Marina Mabrey comes back...well...
So much of the Sun's issues boil down to a lack of high-end talent. Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles were the headliners, and neither projected to be good enough to spearhead an elite offense. It took exactly one (1) week for me to write about the struggles of their two-player game as Mabrey worked through the increase of defensive attention.
Mabrey's most recent appearance was on June 20, coincidentally the last time the Sun lost a game by single digits (86-83 loss to the Dallas Wings). In the four games since, the Sun have been outscored by over 33 points per 100 possessions. There have been some bright spots, like the uptick in production from rookie Aneesah Morrow (12.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.8 steals over the last four games), but the Sun are on a historically bad track right now.
Dallas Wings
4 of 13
The Overreaction: The Wings should completely blow things up around Paige Bueckers
If we've learned anything during this Dallas Wings season so far, it's that Paige Bueckers is absolutely #TheGoods. Being named an All-Star starter in year one is no small feat, even with the fan vote carrying the weight it does.
Bueckers leads all rookies, and ranks just outside the top ten, in scoring at 18.4 points per game. She's done so on quality efficiency, converting roughly 50 percent of her twos, 33.3 percent of her triples (please take more), and 87 percent of her free throws. Her 55.1 True Shooting clip is 1.3 points above the league average (53.8), a quality feat considering the roster context and the way teams have defended her.
But in light of inconsistent frontcourt play, a down year from Arike Ogunbowale, a disappointing year from newcomer DiJonai Carrington (get well soon!) and some questionable scheme, rotation and in-game decisions from new head coach Chris Koclanes, the only person who should be safe heading into the All-Star break should be the actual All-Star in Bueckers.
The Verdict: No, and we really should have more grace
While I've certainly levied some Wings criticism this year, in written form and podcast form, the level of vitriol I've seen levied towards members of the roster and coaching staff this season has been a bit much.
I think there are reasonable conversations to be had about the long-term viability of the Bueckers-Ogunbowale backcourt, but Ogunbowale has undergone a pretty stark shift in touches and overall usage this year. She's earned time to work through those changes, and it's fair to acknowledge that even in a down year, she's still garnering the top defensive assignment on most nights.
Pre-rib injury, Carrington was clearly trying to find herself within a new context on both ends of the floor. You want her efficiency (45.8 True Shooting) and overall decision-making to improve, but there's still a quality two-way player in there when she settles in. We're one season removed from her being an important driver and cutter, as well as an All-Defensive first team member; I don't think all of that has vanished.
And for the Koclanes criticism: there are, and have been, some fair questions to ask about some of his decisions so far. I also think criticizing him to the point where a clip of him clearly looking to his assistants for should-we-challenge-this confirmation goes viral is absolutely ridiculous—and that's just one example of the many overreactions I've seen in regards to him.
Let's just take a breather, please.
Golden State Valkyries
5 of 13
The Overreaction: The Valkyries will host a first-round series, completing the greatest expansion season ever
With due respect to the New York Liberty's historic start (before Jonquel Jones went down), the consistent dominance of the Minnesota Lynx, and the Phoenix Mercury shocking the world with their two-way depth, the Valkyries have earned the "Story of the Season" mantle so far.
Heading into Thursday's action, the Valkyries boast a 9-7 record and find themselves just 1.5 games out of a top-four seed. They're spearheaded by an aggressive, in-your-jersey defense that ranks second in the league. They also clean the glass incredibly well, ranking third in offensive, defensive, and overall rebound rate.
And whew, buddy, that crowd.
You don't want to mess around in Ballhalla. The Valkyries' plus-8.6 net rating in home games rank fourth in the league. Most notably, they've reeled off impressive home wins against the Las Vegas Aces (95-68), Indiana Fever (88-77), and Seattle Storm (84-57) over the past few weeks.
The Verdict: Let's see some road games first
Not to rain on the parade too much, but the home-road split has been pretty favorable to start the year. They're 7-3 at home, which means they're 2-4 on the road; their minus-7.0 net rating in road games rank 10th in the league.
They have a four-game road trip starting on Saturday, taking on the Lynx, Dream, Fever and Aces in a seven-day stretch. I don't question if the defense will travel, but they will need to prove that they can put the ball in the basket. They're a below-average offense overall, despite their three-point volume and solid spacing-plus-flow principles; their offense has fallen off a cliff (95.1 offensive rating, 12th) during road games.
If they come out of this four-game stretch 2-2 or better, we really do need to have some serious conversations about this team. At the very least, head coach Natalie Nakase would have an incredibly strong case for Coach of the Year.
Indiana Fever
6 of 13
The Overreaction: Without Caitlin Clark, this season is cooked
The Fever came into the season with high expectations, and understandably so. Caitlin Clark was coming off a historic rookie year that ended with All-WNBA first team and top-five-in-MVP honors—and, crucially, an actual offseason to breathe before refining her game.
Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell were returning All-Stars; swings for veterans like Natasha Howard, DeWanna Bonner and Sophie Cunningham were made to bolster the roster. Stephanie White, heralded as one of the best coaches in the league during her tenure in Connecticut, made her Fever return.
Fast forward to now, and the Fever sit at .500 with Bonner notably off the roster and, more crucially, Clark on the mend with another lower body injury.
A quad injury, followed by a groin injury, isn't ideal for anyone, much less someone as important to the team's success as Clark is. Even with her scoring efficiency down, Clark's presence alone forces defenses to extend themselves in a way that makes life easier for her teammates to navigate. Without Clark, the Fever become much easier to defend: They're over seven points worse per 100 possessions without Clark on the floor.
If Clark can't get and remain healthy, you can put a bow on this Fever season.
The Verdict: True within a contention lens, but there's something here
It's fair to say the Fever, a team I ranked fourth heading into the season, likely won't win a title without a full-strength Clark. The team surely recognizes that, which is why they're going to take their time bringing Clark back into the fold. She missed Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup championship game, has already been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Aces and it wouldn't shock me if they hold her out of Saturday's matchup against the Sparks.
In the meantime, it is worth noting that Clark's absence has accelerated some on-ball utility with Boston. She's been tasked with making more decisions as a handoff hub, in addition to her usual ball screen and post-up work. Mitchell has oscillated between on-ball initiation and off-ball usage, with screens being set for her at different angles as the Fever work to get her open.
As a whole, the defense has been better without Clark. Having Aari McDonald at the point of attack certainly helps, but in general, the Fever have doubled down on their full-court pressure and off-ball physicality since Clark's been out. Look no further than Tuesday's 74-59 win against the Lynx, including a second quarter that saw the Fever hold the Lynx to just seven points.
If the Fever are able to find consistent answers in the half-court while Clark is out while leaning on their defense, they could have an even higher ceiling overall once Clark returns.
Las Vegas Aces
7 of 13
The Overreaction: NaLyssa Smith will save the Aces' season
Clearly, something had to be done.
The Aces entered the Commissioner's Cup mini-break with an 8-8 record, well below the level they expected to be at. Head coach Becky Hammon beamed about her group's collective heart and mentality during training camp, only to call out the team's "heart issue" a few games into the season due to inconsistent commitment to doing the little things on both ends.
Enter NaLyssa Smith, a former number two overall pick that should give the Aces a much-needed jolt of overall energy and, more specifically, offensive firepower. Her bucket-getting and rebounding prowess should take some pressure off of A'ja Wilson; taking pressure off of Wilson should make life easier for everyone else.
If the Aces are able to score more efficiently, they should be better able to set (and improve) their defense. That feedback loop—better half-court offense into better half-court defense into more/better transition offense—could then help the Aces recapture their contender status.
The Verdict: That's too much pressure on Smith, but she should help
The price for Smith, a 2027 first round pick and the waiving of both Tiffany Mitchell and Elizabeth Kitley, is a little steep for my liking, but I'm just a writer; my "liking" means diddly-squat if the Aces feel it was the appropriate price to pay to save this season—and potentially the Wilson Era at large.
The Wilson-Kiah Stokes pairing has underwhelmed this season, though the Aces have still managed to win those minutes. They've been much better with Wilson as the nominal 5; in 208 minutes with Wilson on the floor without Stokes or Kitley, the Aces have outscored opponents by over 11 points per 100 possessions. For reference, the Liberty have the league's second best net rating at plus-9.8.
In an ideal world, Smith provides the Aces with the ability to lean into Wilson-at-the-5 without sacrificing size to do so. In the event that teams opt to help off of Smith in an effort to wall off the paint, Smith's willingness to shoot and overall scoring prowess as a roller or handoff partner should make that gambit more difficult to pull off.
It's worth keeping an eye on Smith's decision-making, both the actual choices and the speed in which she makes those choices. And while she quietly made strides defensively during her short tenure in Dallas, there's still a level of consistency she needs to hit to become neutral on that end.
I think this is a move that can help the Aces, not necessarily saves them.
Los Angeles Sparks
8 of 13
The Overreaction: Azurá Stevens has emerged as the Sparks' best player
As we wait for All-Star reserves to be announced on July 6 (Sunday), you can expect the names of Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby to come up in discussion—if they aren't selected outright.
There's a third name that should be considered, arguably more than those two: Azurá Stevens.
She's putting together a tremendous all-around campaign, setting career highs in points (14.6), rebounds (8.4), assists (1.9), steals (1.7), two-point percentage (58.9), three-point percentage (38.6), and overall efficiency (62.0). The only players matching her per-game averages are A'ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier—you might've heard of those two.
Stevens' combination of size, length, mobility and skill is nearly unrivaled in the league. It's been fun watching her put things together this season; it'll be even more fun if it's rewarded with an All-Star berth.
The Verdict: An All-Star nod may be warranted, but Best Player talks may have to wait
While Stevens does have a worthy All-Star case, it's also worth noting that she benefits a good deal from playing off of Plum and Hamby's gravity. Not that it isn't a two-way street—Stevens' shooting ability and her comfort operating from the perimeter creates more space for Plum and Hamby to operate—but the sheer amount of attention drawn by the other dwarfs what Stevens gets right now.
A quick example, via Second Spectrum, should help drive the point home. Plum, Hamby and Stevens are part of the 35-player pool that has logged at least 750 touches this season. Plum sees a second defender (or pure double team) on 16.6 percent of her touches, good for 3rd in the league. Hamby ranks sixth at 15.3 percent. Stevens, on the other hand, ranks 32nd among those 35 players with a rate slightly under 7 percent.
Minnesota Lynx
9 of 13
The Overreaction: The Lynx are destined to win the 2025 WNBA championship
While I'm sure the Lynx didn't want to lose the Commissioner's Cup championship game to the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever, they might have history on their side.
In 2023, the Aces suffered an 82-63 loss to the Liberty in the championship game, only to later beat them in the WNBA Finals. Last season, the Liberty suffered a 94-89 loss to the Lynx in the championship game, only to beat the Lynx in a thrilling five-game Finals series.
That recent trend, combined with the fact that the Lynx have the league's best record (14-2), offensive rating (107.9), defensive rating (93.9), net rating (plus-14.0), assist rate (77.3), and effective field goal percentage (53.8) should be enough to conclude that we know who this year's champion will be.
The Verdict: The Liberty may have something to say about that
The Lynx have been tremendous this season, and very well could've won last season's title if a few possessions went differently. Napheesa Collier has been on a mission, and is likely the MVP frontrunner right now; the trio of Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith, and Courtney Williams have put together varying levels of All-Star cases this year. This is a good, deep, versatile, well-coached group that likely feels like they have another gear they could reach, which is frankly terrifying.
The problem is that the Liberty also feel that way.
They've slid a bit without Jonquel Jones in the lineup, but, barring a drastic turn of events, it's not like Jones is done for the year. They also have Leonie Fiebich back from EuroBasket play, which should give an already-elite defense more juice. Once Jones is back in the fold, you'd be hard pressed to find a team with that combination of skill, size, length and versatility.
With that said...
New York Liberty
10 of 13
The Overreaction: Their title hopes are done if Jonquel Jones can't stay healthy
Before Jonquel Jones went down with an ankle injury, the Liberty were in the midst of putting together the most dominant regular season in league history. You generally don't want to toss something like that out there within the first month of a season, but there was truly nothing teams could do with the full-strength Liberty on either end of the floor—except rebound, apparently.
I don't think it's a coincidence that the Liberty have looked mortal, if not middling, in every game that Jones has either missed or failed to finish this season. While this is a collectively large and skilled group, Jones is the foundation of that "skilled size" ethos. She not only changes the way the Liberty play on both ends, she changes the way teams play against the Liberty on both ends.
The Lynx and Mercury have passed the Liberty in the standings since Jones went down, and the Dream are only a half-game behind. Zooming out, the Liberty still have a good enough roster to contend without Jones, but they're second to the Lynx—or even third behind them and the Mercury—in the Title Power Rankings if Jones isn't upright.
They need her.
The Verdict: I lean "that's too strong", but it's hard to argue right now. Unless...
It is worth noting that this Jones-less stretch from the Liberty was exacerbated by Leonie Fiebich also being out. We'll get to see her back in action on Thursday against the Sparks, and I'm sure they will welcome her defense, shooting, and occasional post prowess.
Still, the Liberty being nearly 30 points per 100 possessions better with Jones on the floor is a daunting to look at.
A team headlined by Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, both in the midst of All-WNBA caliber seasons, will always be a tough out—and that's before getting into the depth that still exists on the roster. Natasha Cloud, Fiebich and Nyara Sabally (for now) in the starting lineup, plus Marine Johannes and Kennedy Burke is a quality supporting cast.
And if all else fails, it's also worth noting that, per the good folks at Her Hoop Stats, the Liberty have over $119K in cap space remaining. Recent reporting from the great Annie Costabile suggests Emma Meesseman, arguably the best player in the world outside the WNBA, could be an option for the Liberty if she ultimately decides to come back to the states. In a disaster scenario where Jones can't get or remain healthy, Meesseman could certainly fill most of that void.
Phoenix Mercury
11 of 13
The Overreaction: Alyssa Thomas will never get the respect she deserves
All-Star starters were announced earlier this week. Not only was Thomas not among the six frontcourt players named, she wasn't really close to being chosen. Some of it was assuredly availability—Thomas has appeared in 12 of the Mercury's 17 games this season—but this follows a pretty consistent trend of Thomas not having the fanfare necessary to rank highly enough for starter recognition.
It's just wild to me that player that's been this good, for this long, just can't seem to break through the glass ceiling of national praise. You'd think that 15-7-9 with DPOY-level defense would be worth more than this, but I guess not.
The Verdict: False in actuality, true in spirit
Thomas has been named to multiple All-WNBA and All-Defensive teams. Though she ultimately didn't win MVP in 2023, she did have the most first place votes that year. It's not like Thomas is completely ignored as a great player.
But, darn it, she deserves more love than she's gotten. Not having a single Defensive Player of the Year award on her resumé to this point is one of those things that will age really poorly if it isn't rectified; it's not quite the "Tim Duncan never won DPOY despite anchoring a ton of elite defenses" thing on the NBA side, but we're rapidly approaching that comp.
Maybe this is the year Thomas wins it. The Mercury are fourth in defensive rating this year, and Thomas has been especially adept in blowing up ball screens. Among 41 players to defend at least 100 of them, Thomas ranks 7th in points per possession allowed thanks to her instincts and aggressiveness.
In short, let's start talking a little more about what Thomas is doing on both ends. She should firmly be in the MVP and DPOY discussion.
Seattle Storm
12 of 13
The Overreaction: The Storm should consider an Ezi Magbegor trade
A Big Three has emerged in Seattle this season—just not the one many expected.
Skylar Diggins and Nneka Ogwumike playing at All-WNBA levels shouldn't come as a surprise. These are two of the greatest players in league history, coming off pretty strong 2024 campaigns. Gabby Williams joining the party as a potential All-Star and DPOY candidate is a welcome surprise, though her role offensively has appeared to play a role in the lowered usage of Ezi Magbegor.
Magbegor was one of the league's best defenders last year, but her claim to near-top-20 to -25 value was her budding offensive game. She experimented with more jumpers, but grew as a driver both in transition and in the half court. The Storm sprinkled in handoffs and pick-and-rolls for Magbegor. We haven't really seen much of either this year.
A smaller slice of the offensive pie, the growth of rookie Dominique Malonga, and an overall lack of reliable depth could open up some interesting trade dialogue. Could Malonga be the piece that helps the Storm round out their roster, while Magbegor could spread her wings in a new situation?
The Verdict: I understand the logic, but absolutely not
While there's certainly room for more designed touches for Magbegor, there's also room within the flow of Seattle's offense for her to be more aggressive. The drop in scoring production isn't completely out of her hands.
Also, Magbegor remains an important part to a stingy Storm defense. She's productive as a hedge defender and is comfortable switching out on the perimeter to flatten out enemy actions.
Zooming out, Ogwumike isn't going to play at this level forever—even if it feels like she really could. I wouldn't jeopardize a future Malonga-Magbegor frontcourt to make a short-term move to maximize this core, especially considering just how far ahead the Lynx and healthy Liberty seem to be.
You always leave room for a team to overwhelm you with a can't-say-no offer, but I certainly wouldn't be shopping Magbegor.
Washington Mystics
13 of 13
The Overreaction: The Mystics should sell high on Brittney Sykes
The Mystics were already in the news earlier this week when ESPN reported that forward Aaliyah Edwards was on the trading block.
It makes sense on the surface: Kiki Iriafen has been awesome, and Shakira Austin seems to be rounding back into form on both ends of the floor. There's only so much playing time available for someone like Edwards within that context, and that's before getting into any minutes that Stefanie Dolson, Emily Engstler, or Sika Kone may garner.
An alternative thought: in light of how well the Mystics did in this year's draft with Iriafen and Sonia Citron, and how far away they are from contention, maybe it's worth spinning the wheels on a potential Sykes deal.
Sykes is in the midst of a career year, driving all over the place, living at the line (8.9 attempts), shooting a career high from deep (40.5% on 2.6 attempts) and continuing to defend at a high level. Would a team looking to make a playoff push be willing to give up picks and/or an interesting young piece in order to bring Sykes in?
Remember, Citron's existence on the roster is due to the Chicago Sky making a decision to accelerate their timeline and push for the playoffs, sending the third pick of the draft to Washington for Ariel Atkins.
The Verdict: The logic is strong, but I wouldn't underestimate what Sykes means to Washington
In addition to Sykes being a tremendous player, she's also been an important leader for this team on and off the floor. Her presence has undoubtedly made life easier for Citron, Iriafen and the other youngsters on the roster.
Trading away Sykes wouldn't just affect the on-court product; you run the risk of disrupting—not destroying, but disrupting—the culture that's been established during her tenure.
With that said, I think it makes sense for some phone calls to be made in either direction. I would imagine, because of Sykes' overall importance, that the onus would fall on other teams to reach out to Washington first.
The Storm, for example, are slated to have three first round picks in the 2026 draft: their own, the Sparks, and the Aces. They also have the combination of contracts necessary to put together a package without disrupting their rotation. Maybe there's a conversation to be had there.
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