WNBA Power Rankings After Mercury Surge, Liberty Hold Serve

The initial week-plus of WNBA action is done, which means two things:

1. The definitive takes are flying, because surely the opening four to six games is indicative of how the rest of the season will go.
2. It's time for our first in-season edition of WNBA power rankings.

As we have games-that-count to react to, we have a good bit of movement from the preseason edition, especially from the bottom. Because we're dealing with a small sample of games, the swings are going to be larger in the first couple of weeks than they will be later in the season.

Much like the Unrivaled Power Rankings, I'll be taking a look at things I've liked, and things I'm keeping an eye on moving forward for each team.

Let's dig in, shall we?

All stats are current through games played on May 27.

13. Chicago Sky (0-4)

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Preseason Ranking: 8 (-5)

Week In Review: 93-58 loss to the Fever, 99-74 loss to the Liberty, 91-78 loss to the Sparks, 94-89 loss to the Mercury

Upcoming Schedule: Wings, @Wings

What I Liked: The second unit

You won't find a ton of bright spots for this kind of start, but I do think the bench deserves some love.

Elizabeth Williams is back and, in a shock to no one, is defending at a high level. We got a little bit of everything from her in the Sparks game -- nuance in drop coverage, solid containment on (late) switches, and the blitzes against Kelsey Plum were impactful.

Rebecca Allen has shot well (38.5% on 3.3 attempts), but more than anything, I've enjoyed the movement sets that head coach Tyler Marsh has drawn up for Allen.

Rachel Banham has also shot well from deep (36.8% on 4.8 attempts), and that's with her bombing away off the bounce. Her tight-window pull-ups have been a joy to watch, and the Sky have needed every bit of that shotmaking so far.

Keeping An Eye on: Ariel Atkins' usage

Here are some stats, courtesy of Second Spectrum, that absolutely floored me.

Ariel Atkins received roughly 22 off-ball screens per game last season with the Mystics. She has received a total of 36 off-ball screens through the first four games. Her handoff usage (8.6 per game to 3.0) and pick-and-roll usage (13.2 to 9.0) is also down from last season.

Atkins isn't a high level isolation scorer; she thrives against titled defenses. There's more that can and should be done to get Atkins the ball on the move. As we saw in the Mercury game (season-high 21 points), getting more stops defensively and giving Atkins more opportunity to attack early could be enough to get her going.

Other Thoughts

• This hasn't been an ideal start to the season for Angel Reese or Kamilla Cardoso, on either end of the floor. Both players have underwhelmed as finishers to start the year: among 18 players averaging at least 4.0 attempts at the rim, Cardoso (55.2% FG) and Reese (32.3%) are 12th and 18th in efficiency. Defensively, Cardoso hasn't been as tidy in space -- the Liberty in particular put her through the ringer with a bunch of off-ball screens -- while Reese has been uncharacteristically spotty off the ball. I expect both players to improve on both fronts, but I've been a little surprised by some of their early film.

• On the positive end, the Sky have once again been monsters on the offensive glass. They've rebounded 38.6% of their own misses so far, the best mark in the WNBA. This comes after they ranked second in the league (34.1%) last season.

• Related to the Allen point, I do wonder how long we'll see Kia Nurse in the starting lineup. Nurse had her best outing against the Mercury on Tuesday (14 points, 4-of-7 from three) but hasn't shot well outside of that (1-of-15 from three) -- and that's with, uh, unspectacular defense on the other end. Allen would give them some real juice, though I understand having her movement and general half-court randomness with the second unit.

12. Connecticut Sun (0-5)

Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images

Preseason Ranking: 11 (-1)

Week In Review: 90-85 loss to the Mystics, 87-62 loss to the Aces, 76-70 to the Lynx, 79-55 loss to the Dream, 109-87 loss to the Wings

Upcoming Schedule: @Fever

What I Liked: Saniya Rivers, as a concept

Through four games, Saniya Rivers has had to defend, to varying degrees: Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Courtney Williams, Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Paige Bueckers.

In that same time frame, Rivers has logged a steal or a block against Gray, Young, Williams and Napheesa Collier.

I've liked a lot of what I've seen from Rivers as a defender. Her athleticism and activity in particular has jumped off the screen so far. She certainly isn't perfect -- like most rookies, her attentiveness off the ball could use some tuning so she isn't reacting as often -- but she already feels like a high-impact defender on the wing.

On the offensive end, I've been intrigued by Rivers' on-ball reps. She's been the second-side option on ball screens and handoffs so far. While the efficiency numbers aren't great in either, I've been impressed with her pacing when attacking out of those, as well as some of the passing flashes. I'm still losing my mind over her pass to Kariata Diaby.

Keeping An Eye On: Marina Mabrey's decision-making

As mentioned ahead of the season, Mabrey would be entering her first year as the unquestioned primary perimeter option of a team. I was curious to see how aggressive teams would be against her, and how she'd ultimately respond.

Through the first five games, the results have been ... fine-ish?

Teams have predictably ramped up their pressure against Mabrey, and that's really been felt off the ball. That, combined with bigs creeping up to take away airspace when she does get the ball, has put Mabrey into some interesting probe-or-pass situations.

She's oscillated between firing early shots against tight windows, and kicking the ball out a beat too late in an effort to force the big to commit.

It's why the partnership between her and Tina Charles has felt a little clunky; only four duos have run more ball screens than those two (57), but the Sun are only generating 0.59 points per possession on trips featuring that two-player action.

Other Thoughts

• The early returns on my "Olivia Nelson-Ododa, MIP" prediction have been positive: 10.6 points (54.5% on 2s), 6.2 rebounds (2.4 offensive), 0.8 blocks in 24.0 minutes. Her seals and decisiveness on post-ups (18 reps, 1.00 PPP so far) have been good, and the footwork on drives have been impressive.

• Quick shoutout to Bria Hartley (8.4 points, 3.0 assists, 1.2 steals in 20.1 minutes off the bench) for her instant aggression when she checks in. She hasn't been afraid to fire from deep (41.2% on 3.4 attempts), especially off the bounce.

• It's a quieter thing, but something that's carried over from preseason play has been Kariata Diaby's screening. She really hits people and I appreciate that.

11. Dallas Wings (1-4)

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Preseason Ranking: 10 (-1)

Week In Review: 99-84 loss to the Lynx, 79-71 loss to the Storm, 85-81 loss to the Lynx, 83-75 loss to the Dream, 109-87 win against the Sun

Upcoming Schedule: @Sky, Sky

What I Liked: Paige Bueckers' usage

As the number one pick, there's a natural inclination to build the boat around them if you can. Heading back to the preseason, I was curious to see what new head coach Chris Koclanes had planned for Bueckers, and how that would mesh with Arike Ogunbowale and others.

The early returns: Bueckers has been moved all around the court, and I like that.

She's gotten a fair share of high ball screens, with the Wings mixing in traditional looks with double drags (two screeners early in the possession) and Spain (pick-and-roll with a back screener) reps sprinkled in. They've run screens for her lower on the floor, and have generally paired those with empty spacing.

Bueckers has received 15 off-ball screens per game so far, a top-10 mark in the league. The angles and positioning of those screens have varied throughout the season. Going back to the Storm outing, we've even seen a random post-up sprinkled in -- a quick-hitter against Skylar Diggins that flowed after a wide pindown was blown up.

It's noteworthy that Bueckers leads the team in touches per game (67.8), but it's even more important that the Wings work to utilize every bit of Bueckers' unique skill set.

Keeping An Eye On: Arike Ogunbowale's usage

The flip side to the Bueckers' usage, at least through the opening week-plus of games, is that we just haven't the same (amount of) Ogunbowale.

After averaging nearly 65 touches per game last season, that number has dropped to 49.0, third on the team behind Bueckers and newcomer Myisha Hines-Allen. As you can imagine with that kind of shift, there have been some stark changes to Ogunbowale's diet. Some notable per-game stats from last year compared to this season, per Second Spectrum:

• PnR: 21.4 to 11.6 this season
• Handoffs: 7.4 to 7.6
• Off-ball screens: 16.4 to 11.4

She isn't even bringing the ball up the floor as often (24.1 times per game to 14.0 this year), which further signifies how often she's been off the ball. Through that lens, it shouldn't be too surprising that she's currently posting career-lows across the board as a scorer.

Now, I don't expect that to continue -- she's too talented for things not to perk up -- but there's room for better balance. There can't be many more repeats of the Dream game, where Ogunbowale went scoreless in the first half and only logged seven shot attempts through the first three quarters.

Other Thoughts

• I'm not the first person to point this out, but the Ty Harris minutes have felt steady for Dallas. If not for some of the off-ball lapses defensively -- the Lynx game felt loud in that regard -- I'd be pretty loud about wanting to see her get more playing time.

• Speaking of which: I don't want to tap the Wings Defense button too much, but I'll quickly say I've found myself confused by some of their rotations. Where their help comes from feels ... inconsistent, and I'll leave it there for now.

• I'm trying to sort through my feelings on the DiJonai Carrington Post-Up Experience. She's only logged four of them, per Second Spectrum, but turn on a Wings game and you will see her flashing to the block with her hand up, calling for an entry pass on multiple possessions. I'm generally for players working to expand their games and usage, and Carrington profiles as someone that can at least be a foul-drawing threat when posting up other (smaller) guards. She does need to pick her spots better, because it's often felt like she's been in the way when trying to set up shop.

10. Los Angeles Sparks (2-4)

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Preseason Ranking: 9 (-1)

Week In Review: 84-67 win against the Valkyries, 89-75 loss to the Lynx, 89-86 loss to the Mercury, 82-73 loss to the Valkyries, 91-78 win against the Sky, 88-82 loss to the Dream

Upcoming Schedule: @Aces, Mercury

What I Liked: Azurá Stevens, looking for offense

Whew, buddy.

Let's start with the basics: Stevens is averaging 15.8 points (56.1% on 2s, 47.6% on 3s), 9.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.0 blocks. A'ja Wilson (might've heard of her) is the only other player in the league averaging at least 15-9-1-1 right now, and Stevens has been more efficient from everywhere.

The fun thing about Stevens is you truly never know where she's going to be or what she's going to do. In transition, she may beat your big down the floor and seal someone smaller, or she may trail the action. If she trails, she might drain a three, attack off the bounce, or flow into a quick-hitting handoff or ball screen with someone.

In the half-court, she can set up shop in either corner or space above the break. Because of the shoot-drive-flow dynamic, Stevens is an active threat that defenses have to account for. New head coach Lynne Roberts has done a solid job of moving her around and helping to unlock this version of Stevens. The numbers may regress, but the way she's been utilized feels pretty sustainable.

Keeping An Eye On: Odyssey Sims

I just find myself fascinated by the Sims experience to start the year.

She's felt more "spacer" than "driver" to start the year; part of that is playing off of Kelsey Plum, and part of that has been how teams have (not) defended her off the ball. She's taking what's being given -- a career-high 36.2% of her shots have come from behind the arc so far, and, to her credit, she's drained a respectable 35.3% of them.

But Sims isn't just being used as a spacer. Her screening usage has perked up, sometimes screening for Plum but often setting picks for Dearica Hamby or Stevens in an effort to distort the defense.

To that end, something to watch for: Sims set 59 screens (55 off-ball, 4 on-ball) across 15 games last season; she has already set 44 (40 off-ball, 4 on-ball) through the first six games of this season.

And if that wasn't enough, imagine my surprise turning on the Mercury game and seeing Sims flat-out guarding Alyssa Thomas (!) while Hamby was often "guarding" (read: roaming off of) a perimeter player, to mixed results.

I can't wait to see what this looks like moving forward.

Other Thoughts

• Kelsey Plum is second in the league in scoring (25.2), third in steals (2.7), and seventh in assists (5.5) to start the year. Felt odd not to start with her, but it's a testament to how ridiculous Stevens has been. I've been impressed with the playmaking from Plum so far in light of the coverages she's seen. Some fun passes on film.

• The relationship between the Sparks' offensive tempo and their screening seem pretty closely related. They run fun concepts offensively, but I've been a bit miffed by some of the early (poor) screening. When the screens don't connect, all they've done is burn clock to set up an action 28+ feet from the basket. But when they do, defenses are scrambling, which helps because the Sparks have plus-drivers almost everywhere. Keeping an eye on it!

• In the Sparks wing division: a general "Get Well Soon" to Rae Burrell (knee), a "Welcome Back" to Rickea Jackson (concussion), and a genuine "I see you" to Liatu King, who probably grabbed another contested (offensive) rebound in the time it took you to read this.

9. Washington Mystics (2-3)

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Preseason Ranking: 12 (+3)

Week In Review: 94-90 win against the Dream, 90-85 win against the Sun, 76-74 loss to the Valkyries, 75-72 loss to the Aces, 68-62 loss to the Mercury

Upcoming Schedule: Fever, Liberty

What I Liked: Rookies showing out

[voice comes through an old, shaky speaker]

If you haven't yet received your "A Mystic will win Rookie of the Year" T-shirt, please remain in line!

In all seriousness, what a start to the year it's been for Kiki Iriafen (13.8 points, 11.2 rebounds) and Sonia Citron (15.4 points on 69.5 True Shooting, 3.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists).

Both have gotten some truly absurd matchups so far. Iriafen's had to deal with the BriG frontcourt in Atlanta, Tina Charles in Connecticut, A'ja Wilson in Vegas, and Alyssa Thomas in Phoenix. Citron has been tasked with guarding Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, Marina Mabrey (LOOK AT THIS AGAIN), Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, and Satou Sabally. They've understandably lost some reps, but neither has looked overwhelmed -- and that's huge.

Offensively, I'm not sure if I've been more impressed with Iriafen's drives (1.2 PPP on those so far) or Citron's cutting. The audacity of both -- Iriafen will attack anyone, while Citron's looked pretty comfortable calling her own number off the bounce -- has been a joy to witness so far.

Keeping An Eye On: The frontcourt rotation

With Iriafen playing so well, I'm curious to see what this means for everyone else. Stefanie Dolson's screening, shooting, and box-outs (3rd lowest failed box-out rate among 46 players with at least 30 opportunities, per Second Spectrum) remain important.

Aaliyah Edwards recently made her season debut, and I'd expect to see her minutes ramp up soon. We've already started to see Emily Engstler's minute count fluctuate, and I can't imagine Sika Koné being particularly safe in light of Edwards' return.

And this could get more complicated whenever Shakira Austin (concussion) returns.

Other Thoughts

• Are we ready for All-Star Sykes? Brittney Sykes is averaging 22.3 points, 5.0 assists, and 1.3 steals so far this year. She's provided her usual brand of in-your-face, watch-your-blindside defense, and she's been nails in the 4th quarter. 19 of her league-leading 47 free throw attempts have come in the final frame, largely because she's lived in the paint. Only Kelsey Plum is averaging more drives (14.2) than Sykes (13.3), and the Mystics have gotten good stuff (1.1 PPP) when Sykes has put her head down.

• I would like to once again shout out the ball pressure of Sug Sutton, often the head of the snake for Washington's full-court pressure looks. It's been fun watching her fully commit to that role.

• While we're on the defense, new head coach Sydney Johnson deciding to unleash a zone defense in every second quarter is a good bit that I hope continues.

8. Golden State Valkyries (2-2)

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Preseason Ranking: 13 (+5)

Week In Review: 84-67 loss to the Sparks, 76-74 win against the Mystics, 82-73 win against the Sparks, 95-67 loss to the Liberty

Upcoming Schedule: @Liberty, Lynx

What I Liked: Commitment to zone

The Valkyries entered this week of games with the second best defensive rating (93.1) in the league, though their most recent loss to the Liberty knocked them down a peg. The roster is full of length and aggression, but my favorite thing to soak in has been their zone usage.

It'd be one thing if they just sprinkled it in after timeouts, or after extended stretches of getting lit up -- the two most common scenarios that precede a zone look. But no: they're pressing the button because they want to dictate terms, and I just think that's awesome.

A whopping 12.5% of the Valkyries' defensive possessions have come in zone, per Second Spectrum. Not only is that tops in the league, it's the high mark by over six percentage points (the Liberty are second at 6.1%). The Mercury led the WNBA with a 6.8% clip last season.

It's only been four games, and they have some pretty big tests coming up with this week's schedule. But I like the idea of zone just being Their Thing™️.

Keeping An Eye On: Shot Profile

Heading into the season, I wondered if the Valkyries would dial down their three-point volume. I figured their preseason willingness was more about establishing faith -- shoot this if you're open, we don't mind.

But through four games, the Valkyries have launched 132 triples while taking 130 shots inside the arc. Their 33.0 threes per game average, as well as their 39.6 per 100 possessions clip, would shatter the WNBA record.

What makes this funnier is that rookie forward Janelle Salaün (47.1% on 5.7 attempts; she's fun) is the only player shooting above league average on any sort of "real" volume. Overall, the Valkyries are on pace to sport one of the worst three-point percentages (27.3) in league history.

Surely something has to give.

Other Thoughts

• It's been fun watching an unleashed version of Temi Fagbenle. She's taking more threes of course, but I've been impressed with how quickly she's processed the floor. She really keeps things flowing as a ball mover, screener, and cutter.

• It's too early to draw real conclusions from lineup data, but here's a fun one: the Valkyries have played 36 minutes with Carla Leite and Veronica Burton on the floor together, and they've won those minutes by 22 points. Both guards have lived in the paint (to mixed results), and Burton continues to annoy opposing ball-handlers defensively. I do genuinely want to see more of the Leite-Burton-Thornton-Salaün-Fagbenle group (+10 in 14 minutes).

• Julie Vanloo has logged 13 skip passes in 70 minutes; the only player that has thrown more is Alyssa Thomas (17 in 166). Your low man is never safe when Vanloo's on the floor.

7. Las Vegas Aces (2-2)

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Preseason Ranking: 3 (-4)

Week In Review: 92-78 loss to the Liberty, 87-62 win against the Sun, 75-72 win against the Mystics, 102-82 loss to the Storm

Upcoming Schedule: Sparks, @Storm

What I Liked: Dana Evans' fit with the new Core Four

It didn't take long for Evans to land a spot in the closing lineup for the Aces -- and by that, I mean she was playing critical late minutes against the Liberty in their season opener.

If you want a fun stat: Evans has actually played every second of every fourth quarter so far this season.

Ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Storm, I asked head coach Becky Hammon about her early (and growing) trust in Evans.

"She has different gears," Hammon said.

"She can ... get by people. She has a nice shot from three. But she's just been solid; not trying to do too much. The other night, we were switching a lot and she battled in the post. All those little things go a long ways with me. I like the grit, the heart, how hard she plays -- those are winning attributes."

To Hammon's point, having another guard that can get two feet in the paint allows to generate -- or maintain -- advantages in the half-court. The shooting has helped counter some of the aggressive help that A'ja Wilson in particular has seen.

The Aces are winning the minutes that Evans has played alongside Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, and Jackie Young -- I'd like to see more of them together to see how tenable that group actually is.

Keeping An Eye On: The offense

Much will be said about the defense this year. It was a consistent talking point throughout the preseason, and we've certainly seen it ebb and flow through the early portion of this season.

I'm still trying to get a feel for where the team is offensively, particularly in the half-court.

There have been good flashes. Hammon has drawn up some fun stuff out of breaks as she usually does, and the expansion of Wilson's usage has continued.

But left between the flashes of brilliance from Wilson, jaw-dropping passes from Gray and the increased on-ball burden of Young has been, as Hammon herself has said, a lack of organization. It's clear they're still trying to find the right balance between Wilson, Gray, Young, and Loyd -- who's gotten more touches since a quiet opener against the Liberty.

And this is further complicated by the way Kiah Stokes has (not) been defended; the Liberty and Storm were especially effective in shrinking the floor in Stokes' minutes. That part isn't new, but the Aces are working through it with a different roster context.

No need to press the Big Red Button, but I'm curious to see what they look like against the hedge-heavy Sparks defense and a rematch against the Storm.

Other Thoughts

• It's wild, in whichever way you want to use that word, that Wilson is leading the Aces in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks so far. The assist thing should flip soon -- Gray (33) and Young (28) are outpacing Wilson in potential assists (25), for example -- but this serves as another snapshot displaying Wilson's importance. It would behoove the Aces to make life a little easier on her.

• I've got my eye on the backup 4 minutes; rookie Aaliyah Nye, Kierstan Bell, and Crystal Bradford have all gotten opportunities due to their contrasting skill sets, but none of them have made strong claims for the job yet.

• We finally got some extended minutes from Elizabeth Kitley against the Storm, and I'll say the brow is raised. The scoring comfort popped, she screened well, and she mostly did her job getting to the level of screens defensively. I do worry a little bit about some of her recoveries, but she warrants some actual minutes moving forward. Hammon said as much after the Storm game.

6. Indiana Fever (2-2)

Michael Hickey/NBAE via Getty Images

Preseason Ranking: 4 (-2)

Week In Review: 93-58 win against the Sky, 91-90 loss to the Dream, 81-76 win against the Dream, 90-88 loss to the Liberty

Upcoming Schedule: @Mystics, Sun

What I Liked: Aliyah Boston

Sometimes players just get it -- that's what the start of the season has felt like for Boston.

Her timing and feel as a screener for Caitlin Clark popped after a slow opening month; that has certainly carried over into this season, and it's a shame we won't get to see that partnership for a little bit.

Even beyond the Clark partnership: this isn't the first time Boston's showcased legit passing chops, or great touch in the 6-to-10 foot range (46.2% on those shots), or high-level defense, or you-can't-hold-me glass cleaning. But Boston has done all of those things with more consistency, more fluidity, more decisiveness.

Averages of 18.5 points (61.2% on 2s), 10.8 rebounds (4.0 offensive), 2.3 assists and 2.0 blocks aren't anything to sneeze at. That's All-WNBA stuff if she keeps it up.

Keeping An Eye On: The Fever's offense without Caitlin Clark

As you've likely seen or heard by now, Clark is expected to miss at least the next two weeks with a left quad strain. That two-week timeline would have Clark out for the next four games on the optimistic end, and longer than that if they go the conservative route -- or if something goes wrong with recovery.

Clark's dynamic talent as a playmaker and scorer should be well understood by now -- there haven't been many players in league history that have distorted defenses like she has. Taking that kind of gravity out of the offense is going to hurt to some degree.

I wonder what this stretch will look like, in large part because we really don't have much of a non-Clark minutes sample to go by. Last season, including the playoffs, we only got 193 non-Clark minutes. This year, we've only had 20 through four games -- the equivalent of a half of basketball.

Naturally more usage will shift to Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, but the blend of post-ups, ball screens, and off-ball movement will be interesting to track.

Other Thoughts

• Lexie Hull has popped off my screen so far. She's shot the three well (5-of-9), the cutting has been timely and impactful, the mid-range shotmaking has been a pleasant surprise (though she showcased some in Unrivaled), and the defense has been very good.

• A potential silver lining to the Clark absence: more usage, and hopefully more rhythm, for DeWanna Bonner. She's off to a slow start this season, registering 16 shot attempts (and two makes) over her first four games. After receiving over 23 off-ball screens per game last season with the Sun, Bonner's only averaging around eight per game so far. There's room for more, and frankly they're going to need her shotmaking while Clark is out.

• I will sneak this one through the backdoor: I think there's room for a little more Damiris Dantas for some of the spacing and passing looks you can get into. She, critically, needs to hit shots but she's capable.

5. Atlanta Dream (4-2)

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Preseason Ranking: 7 (+2)

Week In Review: 94-90 loss to the Mystics, 91-90 win against the Fever, 81-76 loss to the Fever, 83-75 win against the Wings, 79-55 win against the Sun, 88-82 win against the Sparks

Upcoming Schedule: @Sun

What I Liked: Allisha Gray

Gray has been phenomenal on both ends of the floor to start the season.

On a basic level, Gray is posting career-highs in points (20.3), rebounds (5.3), and assists (5.0) while nearly averaging a block and a steal per game. The 20-5-5 list is a party of one right now.

The drives have hit to a massive degree; the Dream are scoring a blazing 1.33 points per possession on any trip featuring a Gray drive, first among 44 players to log at least 15 drives so far this year. She's put some fun passes on tape, with a lot of those naturally coming off drives, and almost none of them resulting in turnovers.

Gray's draining 42.5% of her threes on high volume (6.7 attempts) to start the year. The defense has been, well, she's a lock to make an All-Defense team if she keeps defending like this. Honestly it's a shame she hasn't made one yet.

Either way, we've gotten legitimate All-WNBA, All-Defense, All-Star production on both ends from Gray. It's the story of the Dream's early season for me.

Keeping An Eye On: Rhyne Howard

First and foremost, Howard has been rocking a knee brace over the past four games and that isn't her usual getup. She's also gone [checks notes] 9-of-36 from three over that span.

On the other hand, she's logged 37, 38, 31, 38 minutes across those contests while playing some tremendous defense on and off the ball.

I'd love to say "she's playing, so surely whatever it is can't be that bad" but I honestly don't know what to make of this. I can't make my "I wish she'd get to the rim a little more" point without knowing if that's realistic at the moment, so we'll roll that over.

Other Thoughts

• Speaking of injuries, Brittney Griner missed Sunday's game against the Sun to tend to a knee injury. I figured it was also a maintenance deal with the Dream on a back-to-back, but she was ruled out for Tuesday's contest against the Sparks. Hopefully nothing serious is going on there.

• Speaking of defense, I have really, really enjoyed the early work of Maya Caldwell. If you want some teach-tape on off-ball defense, turn on the Sun-Dream game and watch her work against Marina Mabrey.

• Early stat check: the Dream are third in the league in three-point attempts per game (30.7) and post-ups per game (11.7). In fact, they're generating a league-best 1.2 points per possession on any trip featuring a post-up. Striking a solid inside-out blend right now.

4. Seattle Storm (3-2)

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Preseason Ranking: 5 (+1)

Week In Review: 81-59 loss to the Mercury, 79-71 win against the Wings, 77-70 win against the Mercury, 102-82 win against the Aces, 82-77 loss to the Lynx

Upcoming Schedule: Dream, Aces

What I Liked: The Skylar Diggins-Nneka Ogwumike combo

With Jewell Loyd in Vegas, a collective effort would be needed to replace that kind of scoring volume. Diggins (18.8 points) and Ogwumike (18.6 points) have been up for the challenge.

Both players have ramped up their aggression thus far, and you feel it most on their drives. Diggins has long been a walking paint touch, but I like the way Noelle Quinn has moved her around. Diggins is receiving more off-ball work than last season, and that's paired with Diggins receiving those screens lower on the floor to put immediate strain on defenses.

Ogwumike has been more intentional about attacking the space she's given when on the perimeter. She's gotten busy on some transition/trail attacks, where some of those looks would've flowed into handoffs last season.

Of course, they've also done a ton of damage together. It's been sweet music any time Diggins and Ogwumike have hooked up for a ball screen. Diggins has been intentional about getting off the ball quick, giving Ogwumike time and space to attack in whatever way she sees fit. If teams are too worried about Ogwumike, Diggins has been able to turn the corner and cause havoc at the rim.

It's early, of course, but the numbers bear out the increase in volume and efficiency.

• 2024: 10.7 picks per game, 0.92 points per possession
• 2025: 14.2 picks per game, 1.03 points per possession

Keeping An Eye On: Three-point shooting

There are seven players taking at least one three per game for the Storm; five of them have made at least 40% of their looks from deep.

On one hand, that's nuts, even for a low-game sample. On the other hand, the fact that Gabby Williams (she's been awesome on both ends) leads the team in attempts per game with 4.4 -- and is one of two players (Diggins, 3.2) taking over three per game -- doesn't seem ideal. We'll see!

Other Thoughts

• Hey, so, uh, at what point does Ezi Magbegor get going offensively? No real complaints on the other end, but they're going to need her mix of rolls and drives pretty soon.

• Erica Wheeler has been so, so good for the Storm to start the year. She's living in the paint and either getting to the line or getting off the ball from there. To that end, 15 assists to four turnovers is good work.

• If Zia Cooke is going to commit to defending like this, I'd like to see her get more than 9.8 minutes a night.

3. Phoenix Mercury (4-1)

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Preseason Ranking: 6 (+3)

Week In Review: 81-59 win against the Storm, 89-86 win against the Sparks, 77-70 loss to the Storm, 68-62 win against the Mystics, 94-89 win against the Sky

Upcoming Schedule: Lynx, @Sparks

What I Liked: Screen time for Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally

I just love the ecosystem head coach Nate Tibbetts has fostered for both Thomas and Sabally. The spacing tweaks, the ways they get to that spacing -- they're a sneaky good cutting team on that front -- and the utilization of screens have benefitted Thomas and Sabally immensely.

For Thomas, it's been initiating pick-and-rolls, with a guard screening for her, to put strain on defenses. This isn't a new concept for Thomas -- Ty Harris in particular screened for her quite a bit last year -- but the volume and efficiency has gone up.

• 2024: 6.5 on-ball picks per game, 0.85 points per possession
• 2025: 14.6 on-ball picks per game, 1.05 points per possession

For Sabally, she's gotten to dabble in pick-and-roll initiation too, but the off-ball work has been the loudest for her. She's receiving more off-ball screens this year (12.8) than last (11.4), which has unlocked her as a cutter while also getting her deeper post touches.

It should come as no surprise that both Thomas and Sabally are on pace for career highs in scoring so far.

Keeping An Eye On: Monique Akoa-Makani

I hope people are prepared for me to be annoying about her in rookie award discussions, especially if she keeps up this level of play on both ends.

She's been a blast to watch defensively, deftly navigating screens and otherwise making life uncomfortable for ball-handlers. Offensively, she's toggled between spacing the floor -- and oddly not really being guarded -- and being a screener for Thomas.

The former is what I'm most curious about. As I wrote last week, Akoa-Makani shot well from deep overseas last season on solid volume (41.8% on 4.3 attempts), and is currently shooting over 52% from three on 4.6 attempts. I don't think she'll drain literally half her threes this year, but I do wonder:

1) What level of shooting she'll ultimately land at

2) When her scouting report across the league will update, and

3) How she'll respond to the league updating their scouting report on her.

As for now, whew, buddy am I having fun watching her play.

Other Thoughts

• I love that I officially announced my belief in Sabally's three-ball after the season opener -- based on the last year and a half of her shooting, to be clear -- only to shoot 6-of-24 (25%) since the opener. Back to square one, I guess!

• Speaking of shooting, being able to space around Thomas or Sabally with Kathryn Westbeld (38.5% on 5.2 attempts), Kitija Laksa (42.1% on 4.8 attempts, welcome!), and Lexi Held (43.8% on 3.2 attempts) seems like a good bit of business. It would be nice if Sami Whitcomb (23.1% on 5.2 attempts) would join the party, but she's still being treated like a threat.

• I will once again say that I've mostly enjoyed the Kalani Brown (5.6 points, 2.8 rebounds in 13.7 minutes) minutes on both ends so far. Just doing her job, as cliche as that sounds.

2. Minnesota Lynx (5-0)

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Preseason Ranking: 2

Week In Review: 99-84 win against the Wings, 89-75 win against the Sparks, 85-81 win against the Wings, 76-70 win against the Sun, 82-77 win against the Storm

Upcoming Schedule: @Mercury, @Valkyries

What I Liked: Jessica Shepard hitting people

I know what the easy button is in this section, and trust me, we're going to get there. I'm no fool. I do want to say, however, that it's been a pleasure watching Jessica Shepard in the W again.

Her averages are solid across the board -- 9.2 points (62.1% on 2s), 7.4 rebounds (2.8 offensive), 2.8 assists -- but the way she accumulates those numbers is where the real fun lies.

One, on a basic level, she just hits people. Box-out opportunities, post seals, drives, on and off-ball screens, handoffs -- it's just pain with side-helpings of spins and pivots.

Because Shepard's so good at carving out space for others, cutting and passing windows open -- and she's not afraid to hit them. She's more than comfortable grabbing a board and leading the break herself.

Quietly, the Lynx have been solid on the glass (6th in overall and offensive rebound rate, 8th in defensive rebound rate) after being one of the worst teams in the league last season; Shepard's presence on and around the glass has been a big contributor to that.

She's a good, impactful player.

Keeping An Eye On: Kayla McBride's return

Nothing too deep here -- McBride has been out for personal reasons (I hope it was just rest after non-stop basketball this offseason) and made her return against the Storm (15 points, 3 assists, 2 steals) on Tuesday. I just want to see how quickly she's able to round into form on both ends; her shooting, pull-up shotmaking, and all-around strong defense could push the Lynx from elite to unfair.

Other Thoughts

• Okay, so I couldn't not write about Phee. Are you seeing what she's doing? Just a casual, league-leading 26.8 points (54.7% on 2s, 43.8% on 3s), 7.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks to start the season. After dropping 16-10-5-5-2 on Seattle's frontcourt, she has to deal with Alyssa Thomas and a zone-heavy Valkyries defense in her next two games. There's no reason to believe she won't at least hold her own, if not continue to dominate.

• Courtney Williams having (arguably) the best playmaking stretch of her career and actually taking catch-and-shoot threes in rhythm, while also not being able to make much of anything is an incredible bit to start the year. She'll round into form soon; I'm not worried.

• With McBride's return, I am once again wondering what will happen to Diamond Miller's minutes. She's been fine (3.4 points in 8.2 minutes), but the Lynx have essentially been running a seven-player rotation. With McBride back, I don't think it'd take much for head coach Cheryl Reeve to cut into, if not eliminate, those minutes. Bridget Carleton (career high 34.4 minutes before Tuesday) saw a dip against the Storm (29 minutes, in line with last year's 29.8).

1. New York Liberty (4-0)

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Preseason Ranking: 1

Week In Review: 92-78 win against the Aces, 99-74 win against the Sky, 90-88 win against the Fever, 95-67 win against the Valkyries

Upcoming Schedule: Valkyries, @Mystics, Sun

What I Liked: Natasha Cloud, destroyer of worlds

The New York Liberty were the best team in the league last year off the strength of their collective size, length, skill, and IQ. At their best, they were darn-near impenetrable defensively and equally difficult to guard in the half-court. Almost any screening action, on or off the ball, could generate a what-do-we-do conundrum.

And then they went out and added Natasha freakin' Cloud to this mix.

Cloud can be the best version of herself in New York; her drives are additive, not dire. Her defensive versatility is a bonus, not a necessity to a flawed group (sorry, Phoenix). Her shotmaking is a bonus, not a bellwether. 

More pressing, Cloud has been the best version of herself to start the year. 

It's four games so things will normalize, but 15.3 points (56% on 2s, 40% on 3s), 5.0 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.0 blocks would represent career-highs in literally everything.

Cloud's been just as impactful running actions with Breanna Stewart as she has been screening for Jonquel Jones. Her downhill juice and playmaking chops set the table for Sabrina Ionescu to operate more off the ball. Her ability to disrupt things on or off the ball defensively accentuates Leonie Fiebich's ability to do the same.

It's unfair, but it's beautiful to watch.

Keeping An Eye On: Rebounding

Ahead of the Liberty's Ring Day matchup with the Aces, I asked head coach Sandy Brondello how she looked to balance the Liberty's prowess on the offensive glass with their 5-out spacing concepts. The gist of the response I got was that the Liberty were going to work to establish both, because they didn't want to lose that edge on the glass.

Through four games, the Liberty have rebounded a league-worst 20.5% of their own misses. That's a drastic shift from last year, but it ultimately isn't a big deal in a vacuum. Plenty of teams, like Hammon's Aces, punt on offensive rebounding to prioritize transition defense. In general, ending possessions is more important than generating extra ones.

It's why it's worth noting that the Liberty are also 11th (out of 13) in the league in defensive rebound rate (grabbing 67.9% of enemy misses).

This is more of a schedule thing than an actual problem in my opinion. The Sky have the Angel Reese-Kamilla Cardoso pairing; the Fever stretch you thin with Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell, and that leaves you exposed on the offense glass. The Aces grabbing 12 offensive rebounds in the opener wasn't on my bingo card, but there were a ton of threes taken (and missed) so you can ascribe some variance there.

We'll see how quickly the Liberty turn things around.

Other Thoughts

• It would be cool if Stewart (23.1% on 3.3 attempts) and Ionescu (25.0% on 6.0 attempts) could knock down shots from deep. I'm less worried about Ionescu, though the sample on Stewart's faulty three-point shot continues to grow.

• In the meantime, it sure is cool that Kennedy Burke (63.6% on 2.8 attempts) is hitting just about anything she throws up right now. She's really provided timely shotmaking and solid, multi-positional defense for the Liberty so far. I'm enjoying her minutes.

• Back to the defense real quick: Rebekah Gardner doing the full-court pressure thing off the bench is rude (complimentary). It's especially rude when that full court pressure flows into zone like we saw in the Chicago game. Between Gardner, Fiebich, Cloud, Stewart, and Jones, the Liberty really have five defenders that could push for All-Defense consideration if they're healthy/play enough.