8 Landing Spots for Red Sox SP Walker Buehler amid MLB Trade Rumors
Walker Buehler is in the middle of the worst season of his career, but that may only matter so much if the Boston Red Sox put him on the trading block.
It's a possibility with a 35 percent likelihood, according to Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN. And if Boston does make the right-hander available ahead of the July 31 trade deadline, he will have "plenty of suitors."
This ordinarily isn't the case with pitchers whose ERAs are above 6.00, but Buehler is obviously not an ordinary pitcher. He's a two-time All-Star and World Series champion who has one thing that most of his hurling brethren don't: a track record of dominance in the playoffs.
As such, the situation calls for an analysis of Buehler's trade value and speculation on his possible landing spots.
What Is Walker Buehler's Trade Value?
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We need to be honest about where Buehler is at in his MLB career.
Four years ago, the 30-year-old was one of the great aces in the league. In 95 outings between 2018 and 2021, he posted a 2.82 ERA and a 0.989 WHIP in the regular season, plus a 2.94 ERA in 15 playoff appearances.
The Buehler of those days had stuff that most pitchers could only dream of. His fastball sat in the mid-to-upper 90s, and he could turn hitters into jelly with his cutter, curveball and slider.
But then came Buehler's second Tommy John surgery in 2022, which marks a clear line between who he was before and who he is now.
Yes, the 2024 playoffs did end with him getting the final out of the World Series for the Los Angeles Dodgers. But that followed a 5.38 ERA in his first 16 regular-season starts back from Tommy John, and he has gotten even worse in 2025 with Boston. He has a 6.29 ERA in 13 starts.
It isn't a mirage. His fastball is sitting at a career-low 94.1 mph, and he's largely sidelined it in favor of his other pitches. Stuff+ rates his arsenal as below average, and his Statcast profile is mostly blue (i.e., bad).
Even with about $11.1 million still left to pay out from his $21.05 million salary, Baseball Trade Values has Buehler's surplus value deep in the red at negative $8.1 million. He's essentially not worth anything, which means any team that wants him will either get him for nothing or overpay in hopes of a comeback.
The latter isn't hard to imagine given his pedigree, but we're still going to refrain from doing our usual thing of pitching a trade package for each hypothetical landing spot. This is purely about how potential suitors are and aren't a fit for him.
Without further delay, let's look at eight of those in particular.
8. Houston Astros
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Why It's a Fit
For anyone who's scoring at home, the Astros have not one, not two...[continues for a while]...but seven starting pitchers on the injured list.
This is suboptimal just on its face, and it's made worse by the fact that two of Houston's rotation mainstays from earlier in the year (Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski) are out until 2026 after having Tommy John surgery.
The bright side is that Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez are keeping things stable, but one doesn't exactly need to squint to see how Buehler fits here. And if he did come to Houston, pitching coaches Josh Miller and Bill Murphy would have a clear objective: Make Buehler miss bats again.
This is a must for Astros pitchers, as the team is in first place largely because it leads MLB with 774 strikeouts. To this end, Buehler hasn't risen to the level of even one strikeout per inning since 2022.
Why It Isn't a Fit
Of course, the paragraph above could just as easily be seen as an excuse for the Astros not to go after Buehler. And there are more where that came from.
As banged up as the Houston rotation is now, Spencer Arrighetti, Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier are among those who could be back before the trade deadline. The Astros also have the luxury tax to worry about, as the club is less than $6 million in average annual value away from the $241 million threshold for penalties.
7. San Diego Padres
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Why It's a Fit
The Padres aren't exactly being held back by their starting pitching, but it's beginning to look like an area where general manager A.J. Preller needs to take a big swing at fixing.
Joe Musgrove (Tommy John surgery) is out for the year and Yu Darvish (elbow inflammation) and Michael King (shoulder inflammation) don't have clear timetables. Meanwhile, Dylan Cease is having a down year and Nick Pivetta has cooled since a red-hot start to the year.
Buehler is no stranger to San Diego from his time as a Dodger, and he's pitched well at Petco Park to the tune of a 2.67 ERA. Some of that was his talent, while another portion of it was how friendly Petco is to pitchers.
Plus, joining up with the Padres might light a bigger fire under Buehler than other teams could expect. It would mean six chances to take on the Dodgers, and he would have a right to have a chip on his shoulder about those.
Why It Isn't a Fit
Though it remains unclear when Darvish and King are going to be back, the general expectation is the former will return in July and the latter will be back in the second half.
If that is one complication, another is that the Padres are yet another team that might be reluctant to add significant salary. They're already over the second luxury-tax threshold of $261 million.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Why It's a Fit
Buehler and the Dodgers? Together again?
It's an idea that contradicts what we were talking about on the Padres slide, but McDaniel and Passan threw the Dodgers out there as a potential fit for the righty anyway. And on paper, at least, it makes some sense.
The Dodgers have gotten a total of 1.4 rWAR from their starting pitchers, seven of whom are currently on the injured list. And of those seven, only Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow may be able to return before the deadline.
While the Dodgers knew firsthand before the Red Sox found out that Buehler is not the same guy he was earlier in his career, at least there's mutual familiarity there. And if any team has a good shot at getting him back in October, it's them.
Why It Isn't a Fit
It was notable that Buehler did not get a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, and just as notable that the salary he accepted from the Red Sox was an exact duplicate of what he would have earned via the QO in 2025.
It felt like a bit of trolling on Buehler's part. And even if wasn't, the question for the Dodgers is: If they didn't want to take that kind of hit to their payroll in November, why would they now after Buehler's value has sunk even further?
5. New York Mets
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Why It's a Fit
The Mets have gotten a league-best 3.14 ERA out of their starting pitchers, so it's hard to look at their rotation and see a five-alarm fire.
Hard, but not impossible. That ERA will be difficult to maintain until they get healthy, to which end they're waiting on Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea and Tylor Megill.
Adding Buehler would jack the Mets' payroll up even higher, but ask Steve Cohen if he cares. He's OK'd $300 million payrolls for each of the last three seasons, signaling a clear willingness to put as much money as possible into the chase for the club's first championship in 38 years.
Otherwise, Buehler seems like the kind of guy pitching coach Jeremy Hefner could help. The two have something in common in that they aren't as keen on four-seamers as they are on sinkers, cutters and sliders.
Why It Isn't a Fit
As Senga, Manaea and Megill could all be ready to return before July 31, is starting pitching really that much of a priority for president of baseball operations David Stearns?
Perhaps not. Or at least, not as much as the bullpen and center field, which Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic say will be the Mets' priorities at the deadline.
4. Detroit Tigers
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Why It's a Fit
Before he signed with the Red Sox, there was interest in Buehler coming from several teams during the early portion of the offseason. And the Tigers were one of them.
Mind you, this was before Detroit signed Alex Cobb and Jack Flaherty to deepen its rotation underneath reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. But with Cobb out with ongoing hip problems and Flaherty having regressed to a 4.83 ERA, the Tigers have some cause to circle back around on Buehler.
Plus, there's the "Why not?" element.
With the best record in MLB through 79 games, the Tigers are pointed squarely in the direction of the World Series. They should be trying to go all-in, and even adding the remainder of Buehler's salary would still leave them well short (as in, tens of millions of dollars) of the first luxury-tax threshold.
Why It Isn't a Fit
As much as the Tigers could use additional depth behind Skubal in their rotation, Buehler isn't really the proper No. 2 starter they need. He's more of a back-end guy with high-end upside.
What the Tigers need even more is relief pitching and something more solid at shortstop than Trey Sweeney. Bo Bichette should be their primary target, not Walker Buehler.
3. Toronto Blue Jays
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Why It's a Fit
The Blue Jays have climbed into the AL playoff race with what they have, but there's reason to suspect it might not be enough.
They have allowed six more runs than they have scored, no thanks in part to a rotation that has a 4.61 ERA. Chris Bassitt and José Berríos have ERAs in the mid-3.00s, but everyone else Toronto has tried has struggled.
True, Max Scherzer is coming back on Wednesday. Yet knowing he's made 10 starts since the beginning of last year and he'll turn 41 on July 27, the Blue Jays probably shouldn't count on him to be a savior.
As for whether two AL East rivals would really hook up on a trade, let's just assume the usual playbook wouldn't apply here. As Buehler is a rental without much value, neither Boston nor Toronto would have to go into a potential trade spooked about the long-term ramifications.
Why It Isn't a Fit
Here's the question the Blue Jays would need to answer: What about Buehler's 2025 season suggests he can succeed in the AL East?
It's been a rough debut for him in the division, and his one start against the leader (i.e., the New York Yankees) saw him get shellacked for eight runs over 3.1 innings. And if he left Boston for Toronto, he'd eventually be tasked with facing a more dangerous offense than the one the Blue Jays have.
2. Chicago Cubs
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Why It's a Fit
The Cubs definitely have an offense worthy of a World Series run. It is second in the league in scoring, precisely because it doesn't have any weaknesses.
Pitching? Less so. The Cubs are in the middle of the pack for ERA, and fourth from the bottom of the league with 1.1 rWAR from their starting pitchers.
Shota Imanaga will return from a hamstring strain on Thursday, but Justin Steele won't be back until 2026 because of Tommy John surgery. And given his recent track record, the Cubs shouldn't count on Matthew Boyd sustaining a sub-3.00 ERA for much longer.
As for Buehler, we know he was on the Cubs' radar over the winter. He wouldn't cost them much in a trade besides money, and they can still spend plenty of dollars before they risk running afoul of the luxury tax.
Why It Isn't a Fit
Alternatively, the Cubs could look to leverage their deep supply of young talent to chase even bigger fish on the trade market.
To this end, Sandy Alcántara and Zac Gallen would be better gets for the rotation than Buehler. And if the Cubs want to address an even bigger need, third base has produced all of 0.5 rWAR.
1. San Francisco Giants
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Why It's a Fit
The Giants and Red Sox making a trade involving a name-brand star? Why does that sound familiar...Oh, right.
Truth be told, the Giants are mostly set after the Rafael Devers trade. He's the big-time slugger they had needed for years, and he's joined a roster that has already proved itself as one of the best in the National League.
There is, however, the question of which starters manager Bob Melvin can trust after Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. To this end, Buehler would at least bring more upside than an aged Justin Verlander and Landen Roupp, and getting to pitch regularly at the offense-killing stadium that is Oracle Park could only help him unlock it.
Further, it is shocking how much luxury-tax breathing room the Giants still have. Even after adding Devers, they're still close to $20 million in AAV away from the first threshold.
Why It Isn't a Fit
Honestly, it's hard to come up with a way to undercut the general message here. The Giants do need to deepen their rotation, and president of baseball operations Buster Posey has gravitated toward guys who have been there and done that.
As such, perhaps the only questions are whether Posey might prefer to aim higher (i.e., Sandy Alcántara) or perhaps at different targets. The offense could still use another bat, after all, namely at first base or DH depending on where Devers plays going forward.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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