2025 NBA Draft Predictions for Ace Bailey, Derik Queen, Lottery Trades, More
While the 2025 NBA draft remains a few weeks away, it feels like its start is already scripted.
The Dallas Mavericks will open the festivities by cashing in their luck at the lottery to select Duke freshman phenom Cooper Flagg. And while the San Antonio Spurs could always consider alternatives, it sure sounds like they're big fans of presumed No. 2 pick Dylan Harper, a dynamic one-and-done guard out of Rutgers.
Remember, though, those are just the first two of 59 selections to be made (the New York Knicks had their second-rounder rescinded by the league). And temperatures are ripe for chaos from pick No. 3 forward.
So, perhaps it's a bit presumptuous to think our crystal ball already knows what will happen next. Since we're indulging in a fair amount of offseason optimism, though, we'll put our prognosticating skills to the test and release a handful of predictions for the upcoming talent grab.
Ace Bailey Is Drafted No. 3—But Not By Philadelphia
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While perhaps not quite a consensus opinion, Rutgers swingman Ace Bailey is generally regarded as the third-best prospect in this class. Or at least the one possessing the third-highest ceiling.
He is your textbook tough shotmaker who checks all of the physical boxes for a big NBA wing. He might be the likeliest prospect from this class to eventually become a scoring champion.
The thing is, he lacks polish—in almost every non-shooting dimension. He makes a lot of tough shots, because he takes a lot of tough shots. He can struggle to get to the rim with any kind of consistency. And far too often, his physical gifts go unnoticed on the defensive end given the struggles to keep his energy up on the game's less glamorous end.
His long-term outlook is still worth an early wager from someone, just not a team with as much win-now pressure as the Philadelphia 76ers face. That's why this pick has become so popular among trade-machine enthusiasts. ESPN's Jonathan Givony noted there's an expectation among rival teams for "the Sixers to be active in trade conversations, with names such as Kevin Durant (Phoenix) and Lauri Markkanen (Utah) as potential targets in packages that could include Paul George and the No. 3 pick."
Philly doesn't have to go that route—George's trade value might be at an all-time low—but still figures to explore all avenues when it comes to trading this pick. Maybe it is, in fact, a move for a new co-star to pair with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, or perhaps Philly simply slides down the board to get a prospect who doesn't have a ceiling as high as Bailey's but would bring a much higher, better established floor.
The Wizards Move Out of the No. 6 Spot
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The Washington Wizards were among the biggest losers at the lottery. Despite having this season's second-worst record, they were only "awarded" the No. 6 pick.
Look for them to pave a path away from this spot.
Washington is on the hunt "for star talent in the draft," per ESPN's Jeremy Woo, and this probably isn't the place to find it. The Wizards need a true blue-chip prospect to hasten their rebuild, and that label could be a bit much to describe someone like Oklahoma floor general Jeremiah Fears or Texas scoring guard Tre Johnson.
Maybe Washington strikes a deal with Philadelphia to acquire the No. 3 pick with visions of building an offensive attack around Bailey. The Wizards certainly have the financial flexibility to take back Paul George if that's the route the Sixers decide to pursue. Washington also has additional assets to sweeten the pot and just enough veterans to perhaps convince Philly it could walk away from a trade with multiple plug-and-play support pieces in hand.
If that's not an option, the Wizards could also explore trading down a bit to gain extra throws at the dart board. The Brooklyn Nets, who own four picks in the first round (including No. 8), might line up as the perfect trade partner if the right prospect—perhaps the oft-linked Jeremiah Fears—gets to No. 6 but seems unlikely to fall to No. 8.
Derik Queen Is the First Center Selected
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There are, admittedly, reasons to worry about how Derik Queen will handle his transition to the NBA. He won't wow anyone with his physical tools or his effort level, both of which could be fatal flaws on the defensive end. And while he's a theoretically fascinating prospect on offense, his appeal loses a lot of that luster if his jumper never comes around (7-of-35 from three-point range at Maryland).
Why mention that at the top of this otherwise encouraging-for-Queen prediction? Because otherwise that might feel like low-hanging fruit for his biggest backers, who might view him as the league's next jumbo-sized offensive hub.
He might have the best hands and the best footwork of anyone in this draft class. It feels like the most frigid of cold takes to also label him its best passing big. His inside-the-arc arsenal comes fully loaded with face-up skills, low-post prowess and the right combination of vision and feel to consistently create advantages for his attack. He's an asset on the glass. And if the right developmental staff works its magic on him, he could eventually add long-range shooting and defensive switchability to the mix, too.
The potential prize here—current warts and all—is true franchise-centerpiece kind of stuff. But that's all assuming he finds the right fit on draft night and absolutely maxes out his potential.
Some front offices won't be able to stomach this kind of risk-reward gamble, but it only takes one to fall in love and make Queen the first center off the board. Our guess is that infatuation grows to such a degree sometime between now and draft night.
The Rockets Don't Dismantle Their Core, But Do Deal the No. 10 Pick
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The Houston Rockets have more than enough trade chips to broker a blockbuster, perhaps one of the internet-breaking variety. They could have the incentive to explore that option, too, after failing to parlay their 52-win breakout into more than a first-round cameo, due largely to the lack of a go-to offensive star.
Then again, they just snagged the No. 2 seed in a stacked Western Conference with a rotation largely comprised of under-25 talent. The star they've been missing might already be in the organization, just not fully bloomed yet. Back in March, ESPN's Tim MacMahon relayed that's the "hope" of the franchise, which feels "there's maybe four, five guys on the roster" with that type of potential.
Houston could still choose to hasten the process by adding an established elite, but is the right one available? The Athletic's Kelly Iko and Sam Amick reported that the Rockets find Giannis Antetokounmpo the "most intriguing" potential trade target, and while anyone would be better off having the two-time MVP, he wouldn't help their shooting shortage or scratch their itch for a high-end perimeter shot-creator.
In other words, the tea leaves don't appear to be leading toward an immediate shake-up of that magnitude. Houston could, however, pursue a more modest upgrade to its supporting cast, quite possibly at the expense of its No. 10 pick.
While that selection would merely sweeten an offer for someone of Antetokounmpo's caliber, it might be enough to anchor a package deal for someone like Brooklyn Nets three-and-D ace Cameron Johnson. If the Rockets are convinced—or even just really hopeful—that their missing star search can be handled in-house, then they won't part with a building block and will instead use this late-lottery pick to acquire a supporting actor.
Egor Demin Cracks the Top 10
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If this piece dropped before the season, projecting a top-10 landing spot for Egor Demin might be akin to plucking the lowest-hanging piece of fruit. ESPN's Jonathan Givony mocked Demin ninth overall in a way-too-early mock from February 2024, for instance.
Demin didn't exactly light the college hoops world ablaze, though, and his draft stock took a significant hit. A recent mock from The Athletic's Sam Vecenie had Demin going 18th overall, with Vecenie adding, "I'm a bit lower on Demin than this, but I'd put his range from the late lottery to No. 22 or so."
So, why have Demin bouncing back now? Well, the same size-skill blend that initially tantalized scouts remains present. He is a 6'9" primary playmaker with the vision to find open teammates all over the floor and the arm talent to zip passes that are seemingly always on time and exactly on target.
The question is whether he can score with any kind of consistency, but there is hope on that front. He flashed three-level scoring touch at BYU and then put on "one of the most impressive pro day performances we've seen in some time" at the combine, per Givony. Demin's shot looks better than his shooting rates (27.3 percent from three, 69.5 percent from the line), and again, it only takes one franchise to believe it can "fix" him as a shooter.
There is, if nothing else, plenty of intrigue here. He has way too much feel and passing ability to be labeled as a blank slate, but the room for improvement as a shooter and scorer gives him the kind of growth potential often attached to a tools-y project pick. If he keeps impressing on the workout circuit, we're wagering he'll work his way back into the top 10 yet.
