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NBA Mock Draft: Simulating Lottery and a Giannis Trade Idea for Houston 1st-Rounder
Most NBA teams holding picks near the top of the 2025 draft are fully focused on the upcoming lottery.
That is, after all, when a few fortunate franchises might be united with a few fortune-changing mega-talents.
Some of these prospects will eventually become stars. Not everyone needs to wait on their development, though. Not when there's an established elite potentially waiting for someone to come get him.
That elite would be one Giannis Antetokounmpo, the two-time MVP who will reportedly meet with the Milwaukee Bucks soon "to discuss both his future and the future plans for the team," according to ESPN's Shams Charania (h/t ESPN's Jamal Collier.) Those future plans have never more tenuous following the club's third consecutive first-round exit and Damian Lillard's unfortunate Achilles tear.
So, this mock draft might be a little livelier than most. Beyond simulating the lottery—fair warning, Utah Jazz fans, this simulation is nightmare fuel for you folks—we're also brokering a hypothetical blockbuster involving the Greek Freak and a top-10 pick in this draft.
1. Charlotte Hornets: Cooper Flagg, PF, Duke
1 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 14.0 percent
Odds for top four: 52.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Scottie Pippen
While Flagg is the consensus top prospect in this class, there are unanswered questions about his ability to serve as the top offensive option on a title contender. His ideal outcome might be serving as a Pippen-esque No. 2, pairing all-purpose defense with an ability to do just about anything offensively.
Flagg may not have an obviously elite skill in his arsenal—save perhaps for his hustle and competitive edge—but there are several potentially elite skills at his disposal.
More importantly, there isn't a single glaring weakness in his game. His upside arguably eclipses that of Pippen, a Hall of Famer who made 10 All-Defensive teams and earned seven All-NBA nods.
2. Philadelphia 76ers: Dylan Harper, PG/SG, Rutgers
2 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 10.5 percent
Odds for top four: 42.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Jalen Brunson
Harper pairs phenomenal footwork with craftiness and prodigious scoring ability around the basket. His high-end speed isn't blazing, but it can feel that way due to his ability to change pace in an instant and his turbo-charged quicks.
His shot is a work in progress, and if it doesn't come around, he'll fall short of the Brunson comparison and struggle to pilot an NBA offense on his own.
In a multi-creator offense like Harper would have in Philadelphia, though, he could wreak havoc as a wing-creator who isn't overtaxed on offense and is therefore able to give more consistent defensive effort than he showed at Rutgers.
3. Washington Wizards: Ace Bailey, SF, Rutgers
3 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 14.0 percent
Odds for top four: 52.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Michael Porter Jr.
Bailey is a 6'10" shot-maker with three-level-scoring potential. There's a chance he becomes what scouts once hoped Porter would be—only with more of an impact on defense.
That's assuming, of course, that an NBA team helps Bailey better tap into his potential on the defensive end.
There are also questions about Bailey's handle and shot selection, which, if not ironed out, could wind up plugging him into the same kind of off-ball role Porter has filled in Denver.
Bailey has, however, shown enough flashes of creation for optimistic observers to wonder whether he might have an NBA future as an offensive hub.
4. New Orleans Pelicans: VJ Edgecombe, SG/SF, Baylor
4 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 12.5 percent
Odds for top four: 48.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Victor Oladipo
Edgecombe will enter the NBA and immediately challenge for best-athlete-in-the-league status. His explosion is special, and he makes full use of it as a transition attacker, passing-lane pest and shot-blocker.
His two-way ceiling might reach higher than Oladipo's, depending on how Edgecombe progresses with his movement shooting, handle and decision-making.
That said, the raw ingredients for two-way stardom are ever-present in his profile.
5. Utah Jazz: Jeremiah Fears, PG/SG, Oklahoma
5 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 14.0 percent
Odds for top four: 52.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Jamal Murray
The groan out of Salt Lake City if the Jazz wound up at No. 5 might reverberate across the hoops world. A 65-loss tank train is supposed to wind up somewhere more promising than this, right?
The Jazz could still strike gold in this spot, though, provided they can clean up Fears' issues with turnovers, inconsistent shooting and shot-selection. His scoring range potentially reaches from the paint to well past the perimeter, and there is a fearlessness about him that can be a strength if his skills eventually justify it.
The game still needs to slow down for him, but if it does, he can stay a step ahead due to his pace of play and improvisation.
6. Brooklyn Nets: Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
6 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 9.0 percent
Odds for top four: 37.2 percent
Pro Comparison: O.J. Mayo
Johnson has a reasonable claim to being the best scorer in this draft.
Even better, he has enough shake and footwork to free himself and the ability to get buckets on the move. He can get overconfident in his shooting ability, but most coaches would prefer to dial that back then try to coax it out of a timid player.
The Mayo comparison may not seem favorable given the way his NBA career stalled out, but he was the third pick of the 2008 draft and went on to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting—ahead of the likes of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love and Marc Gasol.
There's a non-zero chance Johnson becomes a go-to scorer, particularly if he can level up as a playmaker.
7. Toronto Raptors: Kon Knueppel, SG/SF, Duke
7 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 7.5 percent
Odds for top four: 31.9 percent
Pro Comparison: Cameron Johnson
If Knueppel isn't the best shooter in this draft, he's at least in that discussion.
And given his ability to make plays out of the pick-and-roll and knack for finding scoring chances from the mid-range, he should serve as more than a shooting specialist.
Will his competitiveness and feel allow him to compensate for his athletic limitations on the defensive end? That's a big question mark.
It's also one the Raptors could be willing to overlook, since they have reliable defenders at other spots and will be on the hunt for more spacers as long as they're building around Scottie Barnes.
8. San Antonio Spurs: Jace Richardson, SG, Michigan State
8 of 30
Odds to Win Lottery: 6 percent
Odds for top four: 26.2 percent
Pro Comparison: Derrick White
The 6'3" Richardson didn't inherit quite as much size or explosion as his father, Jason Richardson, who routinely displayed elite aerial artistry over his decade-plus NBA career.
The younger Richardson shares his old man's knack for shotmaking, though, and plays with a predictably advanced feel for the game.
At 6'3", Richardson lacks ideal size for a combo guard, but he otherwise checks the boxes for shooting, creation and table-setting.
His lack of size could hinder his versatility on defense, but he is someone who can be counted on to be in the right place at the right time.
TRADE at 9. Milwaukee Bucks (from PHO via HOU): Derik Queen, C, Maryland
9 of 30
Milwaukee Bucks receive: No. 9 pick, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, a 2027 first-round pick (from PHO) and a 2028 first-round pick (top-three protected)
Houston Rockets receive: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Odds to win lottery: 3.8 percent
Odds for top four: 17.3 percent
Pro comparison: Boris Diaw
If the Bucks are forced to deal Antetokounmpo, it's unclear if they would shift totally into rebuild mode. That feels like the logical next step, but they may not be in a rush to take it since they don't control their own first-round pick until 2031.
Still, if they're getting a top-pick in the exchange, they should swing big for upside. And Queen perhaps offers as much as any prospect you'll find outside of the top five.
His skills are unique and maybe a tricky fit at first, since he won't arrive with elite explosiveness or a reliable outside shot. He is, however, a super-skilled face-up player with great hands, excellent vision and slippery handles. He has true offensive-hub potential, and his upside might be lofty enough for Milwaukee to construct its post-Giannis plans around him.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: Carter Bryant, SF, Arizona
10 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 3.7 percent
Odds for top four: 16.9 percent
Pro Comparison: Trevor Ariza
If the Blazers aren't worried about team fit—and since they're still in their post-Damian Lillard rebuild, they might not be—they could spend this pick on one of the centers typically mocked ahead of Bryant.
But given their glut of bigs just limited last year's No. 7 pick to only 19.8 minutes per game, they might prefer to avoid spending another top-10 pick on a center.
Instead, they could fortify their wings with Bryant, a defensive playmaker who can capitalize on the offensive chances created for him behind the arc or at the rim. He is more of a budding role player than a future star, but impact three-and-D wings might be the most coveted role players around.
11. Dallas Mavericks: Khaman Maluach, C, Duke
11 of 30
Odds to win lottery: 1.8 percent
Odds for top four: 8.5 percent
Pro comparison: DeAndre Jordan
Considering Maluach just started playing organized basketball at 14 years old—four years ago—it should be uncomfortable making a player comparison.
The calendar gives him so much theoretical room to grow, and his touch and ability to defend away from the basket potentially add interesting wrinkles to his game.
Having said all that, he is big (7'2"), long (9'8" standing reach) and athletic, and he feels destined to land in a rim-running role.
If he aces his development, he could be a reliable lob finisher and defensive anchor with more modern enhancements than Jordan, like capable foul shooting and an ability to defend in space.
12. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakučionis, PG/SG, Illinois
12 of 30
Odds to win lottery (via PHO): 1.7 percent
Odds for top four (via PHO): 8.1 percent
Pro Comparison: Bogdan Bogdanović
This comparison probably undersells Jakučionis' passing and oversells the current state of his shooting. That said, it paints a pretty fair picture of his offensive creativity, scoring potential and ability to beat defenders in ways unrelated to quickness and explosion.
There are some eye-of-the-beholder elements to his outlook as a floor general, given there wasn't much separation between his averages in assists (4.7) and turnovers (3.7) this past season.
Having said that, you can usually see his vision in his film, and NBA teams might forgive some of the giveaways as signs of experimentation.
13. Atlanta Hawks (via SAC): Nolan Traoré, PG, Saint-Quentin
13 of 30
Odds to win lottery (via SAC): 0.8 percent
Odds for top four (via SAC): 3.8 percent
Pro Comparison: Jeff Teague
Traore has enough speed to put opposing defenses on their toes, and then the vision and awareness to probe whatever openings that separation creates.
His long-range shooting is (hopefully) coming along, but he already has impressive touch on his floaters and runners.
If he doesn't develop as a shooter or defender, he'll be tough to plug into anything more than a change-of-pace reserve role. But if that outside shot ever perks up, it would simultaneously up his impact as a playmaker.
There's enough upside here for Atlanta to consider slotting him behind Trae Young or even seeing him as the heir apparent.
14. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
14 of 30
Odds to win lottery (via Hawks): 0.7 percent
Odds for top four (via Hawks): 3.4 percent
Pro Comparison: Paul Millsap
Murray-Boyles is a bit of an awkward fit in the modern game, the kind that reminds you 'tweeners still exist in this increasingly position-less era.
He is basically a non-shooting, 6'7" big man who's comfortable playing bully-ball in the post. How many players get by with that archetype right now?
All of that said, there's a world in which he excels as a pick-and-roll player on both ends of the floor. He is a defensive disruptor with some of the quickest hands in the class, and on offense, he is a creative passer and capable on-the-move scoring threat.
There is Draymond Green 2.0 potential here, but that's on the extremely optimistic end of Murray-Boyles' best-case scenarios.
15. Oklahoma City Thunder (via MIA): Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm
15 of 30
Pro Comparison: Al-Farouq Aminu
Essengue is a long, nimble athlete who shines in transition and with defensive versatility. He impresses with his face-up skills and finishing package, particularly for an 18-year-old.
His shot is progressing, but it still has a long ways to go. His frame needs filling out, too, but time should be on his side. He'd be a project pick, but the pick-rich, championship-contending Thunder have enough depth to tackle this assignment.
16. Orlando Magic: Liam McNeeley, SF/PF, Connecticut
16 of 30
Pro Comparison: Corey Kispert
At some point, Orlando needs to address its longstanding shooting deficiency, and a draft-night investment in McNeeley would be a step in that direction.
The 6'7" swingman is a natural net-shredder, and he offers enough handles and open-court finishing to picture him becoming more than a shooting specialist.
His athletic limitations might always present problems on the defensive end, and they could prevent him from expanding his creation skill.
Still, this feels like a safe selection (with some upside) for a team that needs exactly what he can provide.
17. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Asa Newell, PF/C, Georgia
17 of 30
Pro Comparison: Brandon Clarke
Newell looks like a plug-and-play rim-runner with room to grow beyond that role. If the Timberwolves press all of the right developmental buttons, he could be a pick-and-pop option down the line, too.
Minnesota doesn't technically need more bigs now, but free agency could be awaiting both Julius Randle and Naz Reid.
18. Washington Wizards (via MEM): Egor Demin, PG/SF, BYU
18 of 30
Pro Comparison: Josh Giddey
With his vision and selflessness, Demin would be a passing asset at any size. The fact that he can quarterback an offense while standing 6'9" is what really boosts his appeal, though.
Jumbo playmakers are all the rage in the modern NBA, and he can make all the passes from all the angles.
Like Giddey, there are questions about what kind of shooter and scorer Demin will become, and he faces some of the same defensive concerns, too.
Washington's need for an offensive architect is great enough to overlook all of that, though.
19. Brooklyn Nets (via MIL): Ben Saraf, PG/SG, Ratiopharm Ulm
19 of 30
Pro Comparison: Goran Dragić
Saraf is a slick-passing southpaw, but that's not the only reason for the Dragić comparison. He is a skilled scorer and passing threat on the move, and his speed changes help him stay a step ahead.
Shooting will be a major swing skill for Saraf, whose touch has underwhelmed from essentially everywhere on the court. The Nets' need for creativity could still draw them to him.
20. Miami Heat (via GSW): Rasheer Fleming, PF, St. Joseph's
20 of 30
Pro Comparison: Larry Nance Jr.
Fleming is the kind of prospect who could really help himself on the pre-draft circuit. If his shooting holds up against NBA prospects, you're talking about a bouncy 6'9" power player who offers range, paint protection, finishing, rebounding and all kinds of hustle.
His high motor feels like a fit for #HeatCulture, and his lack of creation could be easier to stomach when he'd be playing off the likes of Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.
21. Utah Jazz (via MIN): Hugo Gonzalez, SF, Real Madrid
21 of 30
Pro Comparison: Josh Green
Even for an overseas draft prospect, Gonzalez feels like a mystery box. He's averaged single-digit minutes in the EuroLeague, so there just isn't much to go by in terms of film or production.
Through squinted eyes, though, one can see the resemblance of a high-motor, role-playing wing. He keeps active defensively, has enough zip to convert scoring chances on off-ball cuts and straight-line drives and his shooting form looks better than his results.
22. Atlanta Hawks (via LAL): Nique Clifford, SF/PF, Colorado State
22 of 30
Pro Comparison: Josh Hart
Age and level-of-competition are both potential arguments against the 23-year-old Clifford. The arguments for him, though, are about as numerous as an admittedly favorable Hart comparison would indicate.
He hustles, he defends, he rebounds, he distributes and, based on what he showed at Colorado State, he might create out of isolations and post-ups, too.
Dominating the Mountain West is a much different challenge than thriving in an NBA role obviously, but the tools might be in place for a super-utility player.
23. Indiana Pacers: Danny Wolf, C, Michigan
23 of 30
Pro Comparison: Nemanja Bjelica
For teams solely focused on Wolf's upside, they might see his comparison as being closer to a 7'0" Hedo Türkoğlu.
When Wolf has it going, there's some really fun film in terms of passing, handling and creating out to the perimeter.
That feels like an oversell of his agility and consistency, though. Creating in space can be a challenge, and he often fails those challenges with turnovers or doomed-from-the-start drives to nowhere.
Still, there's mismatch potential for someone with his size, vision, shooting touch and back-to-the-basket craft.
24. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC): Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita
24 of 30
Pro Comparison: Daniel Gafford
This is a favorable comparison given Beringer's current form, but the upside is clear for a bouncy 6'11" big who won't turn 19 until November.
His offensive outlook is almost all theoretical at this stage, but his length, athleticism and mobility point toward some interesting outcomes for his defense.
As for that offense, it may never include much passing or any kind of shooting. But if he's finishing bunnies around the basket and emptying his fuel tank on the boards and the defensive end, the Thunder could eventually find a spot for him in their frontcourt rotation.
25. Orlando Magic (via DEN): Kam Jones, PG/SG, Marquette
25 of 30
Pro Comparison: Donte DiVincenzo
Teams chasing upside at the draft won't give Jones a second look. He isn't young (23) or particularly explosive, so NBA stardom is likely out of reach.
For those wanting a plug-and-play option on the perimeter, though, he could be sought after in the late first or early second round. He is an effortless, generally efficient scorer who really ramped up his playmaking this past season (5.9 assists against 1.9 turnovers).
26. Brooklyn Nets (via NYK): Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown
26 of 30
Pro Comparison: Wendell Carter Jr.
Sorber could get drafted higher than this, but the foot injury that kept him out the final few months of the college basketball season could also scare off would-be NBA suitors.
Maybe that gives Brooklyn some bargain potential. He has an advanced feel for a 19-year-old, which manifests most clearly in his post scoring, passing and verticality on defense. And he would be a draft steal in hindsight if he ever found three-point range on his shot.
27. Brooklyn Nets (via HOU): Labaron Philon, PG, Alabama
27 of 30
Pro Comparison: Delon Wright
If Philon had better touch on his outside shot, he wouldn't last this far in the draft (or draw a comparison to Wright). His competitive fire burns bright, and he's a tricky cover due to the herky-jerky style of his attacks.
If he can't shoot, though, things could get dicey. How many 177-pound NBA point guards can you think of who aren't ignitable shooters or explosive athletes?
28. Boston Celtics: Noah Penda, SF/PF, Le Mans
28 of 30
Pro Comparison: Justise Winslow
Penda is a chaos-creator on defense who also makes things happen in a hurry on the offensive end. He knows how to find and exploit gaps in the defense both as a passer and a cutter.
In case the Winslow comparison hadn't made this obvious, though, there are questions about Penda as a shooter.
If he holds his own in that department, he might be a more powerful Nic Batum. If he doesn't, Penda could be tricky to place in a lineup.
29. Phoenix Suns (via CLE): Walter Clayton Jr., PG/SG, Florida
29 of 30
Pro Comparison: Payton Pritchard
Clayton is a fearless, uber-confident shot-maker who just carried his club to a national championship. The stakes and the spotlight clearly don't bother him, and when he really has it rolling, neither does the defensive pressure he faces.
He won't be for everyone, since he's already 22 and functions mostly as a 6'3" scoring guard. But for a team with win-now intentions and a need for additional shot-making—a description that likely fits the Suns regardless what they do with Kevin Durant this summer—his production and skill could trump those concerns.
30. Los Angeles Clippers (via OKC): Yaxel Lendeborg, PF, UAB
30 of 30
Pro Comparison: Tari Eason
Lendeborg, who turns 23 in September, is the kind of late bloomer who might have more growth potential than his age suggests. And that's a fascinating proposition given how far he has already come.
His 2024-25 stat line spiked in almost every category, highlighting everything from creation and point production to rebounding and defensive playmaking.
It's still unknown how much of this can translate against higher competition, but this could be a wager worth taking for the Clippers, since Lendeborg may offer enough as is to step into the rotation and perhaps become much more than a role player when the franchise starts plotting its post-James Harden, post-Kawhi Leonard plans.
