The Clock Starts Now for Denver Nuggets to Figure out Nikola Jokić Situation
From the outside, the Denver Nuggets appear to be a complete mess. The team fired its general manager (Calvin Booth) and head coach (Mike Malone) on the same day, right before the postseason.
The franchise arguably boasts the best player in the world, but the talent around Nikola Jokić has diminished since the 2022-23 championship. Heavy investments in Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Jokić limit the team's flexibility under the complex rules of the new collective bargaining agreement that punishes the heaviest spenders.
The Nuggets used most of their draft capital to build a contender, but as the veteran core has thinned in recent years—notably with the exits of Bruce Brown Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope—the replacements haven't done enough to make the team a playoff favorite.
The path forward is murky, and Jokić's contract won't last forever. The Nuggets must carefully think through their future as the clock on Jokic's time in Denver is ticking loudly…
Jokić's Current Contract
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Jokić is on a "supermax" contract, earning $51.4 million for the 2024-25 season. He signed a five-year deal in 2022 with a player option before the 2027-28 season.
In July, Jokić's salary climbs to $55.2 million, followed by his final locked-in year at $59.0 million for 2026-27. If Jokić remains the healthy and productive MVP candidate he is today, he'll opt out of his $62.8 million for 2027-28 to explore free agency or continue his career in Denver with an extension.
Jokić also has a 15 percent trade bonus, but since he's earning the supermax, above the maximum salary for a player at least 10 years of service despite his nine years, his bonus will zero out. He'll get a slight bonus if traded during the 2026-27 season or later, but it's not an immediate factor.
Extension Potential
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Jokić is extension-eligible from July 8 until the day before the 2025-26 regular season starts. He'd void his player option to add three years at approximately $212.2 million ($149.4 million in new salary, considering the declined player option). Should Jokić wait until July 2026, he can add four years at $293.4 million ($230.6 million in added salary, factoring out the declined option).
Considering the staggering financial opportunity, Plan A for Jokić presumably would be an extension. A five-year contract as a free agent could reach about $380 million. Still, top players almost always prefer to lock in the security of a salary via extension, since they can always sign for more in future contracts (if they continue playing at an elite level).
If traded, he would need to wait six months to get his full extension; otherwise, his raises would dip from eight to four percent, and the maximum total years of the contract would drop from five to four.
Is There Danger Jokić Leaves?
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Jokić is heading into the decisive phase of his contract. He can end all speculation with a quick extension or signal to the Nuggets that he intends to wait. That's what De'Aaron Fox chose to do in a similar situation with the Sacramento Kings. Fox's relationship deteriorated as the team faltered, and he was eventually traded to his desired location (the San Antonio Spurs).
Fox had the leverage despite one whole year left on his deal since he could threaten any team looking to acquire him that he'd be nothing more than a short-term rental, ready to walk in free agency to a San Antonio franchise projected to have significant cap room.
That's the path Jokić could choose to walk, especially if Denver can't find a way to improve its roster around him. Is his loyalty tied to the franchise, fans, teammates, or a now-departed coach and/or general manager? If improvement comes by exiting teammates, does Jokić believe in that direction, or does he develop a wandering eye?
The Luka Dončić trade (from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers) should remind everyone that the NBA business can be a complex equation in which loyalty is marginalized.
Potential Suitors?
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Fox had enough leverage to get the Kings to trade him to the Spurs without San Antonio giving up guard Stephon Castle. The longer this waits, if Jokić decides to follow a similar path, the worse the situation may get for Denver. The alternative of not trading him could lead to the Nuggets losing him for nothing via free agency.
Teams will be all over this possibility as they enter the summer and through to the trade deadline in February. Many teams project to have cap room in 2026 and can easily kick the can for a year for that 2027-free-agent leverage.
Any Jokić trade would be complicated, with bidders needing to send between $44 million and $55.2 million in outgoing salary (the former would trigger a first-apron hard cap, the latter likely at the second-apron in most cases).
For instance, the Los Angeles Lakers could manage enough outgoing salary with players like Dalton Knecht, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Gabe Vincent and Maxi Kleber. That's an overwhelming top five with LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dončić and Jokić, but the rest of the roster would mostly need to be players at that minimum (unless James chooses to opt out and re-sign at a discount to help add depth).
That would take a massive push from Jokić to compel the Nuggets in that direction, similar to the Jimmy Butler exit from the Miami Heat to the Golden State Warriors. L.A. is limited with its draft capital, and Reaves isn't as appealing as a trade centerpiece with a short-term contract that will undoubtedly lead to unrestricted free agency in 2026. The best the Lakers can arguably offer in first-round compensation is four years of swap rights and their 2032 selection. That's not especially appealing, as Los Angeles would project to be quite good for the foreseeable future.
Other teams could make a reasonable pitch (relatively speaking) for Jokić. A glance suggested the Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat, and Oklahoma City Thunder, but realistically speaking, if Jokić were on the market, just about any franchise would line up for the opportunity.
The Nuggets want him to stay, so none would be credible without Jokić forcing the issue, and if he is, he would undoubtedly hamstring Denver by dictating the destination.
Can Nuggets Trade Back into Contention?
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Jokić may remain loyal to the Denver franchise, whether he agrees to sign in July or the following summer. Naturally, he wants his team to improve enough to win another title. The challenge for the Nuggets is how?
The team has 11 returning players on guaranteed contracts. Dario Šarić ($5.4 million) and Russell Westbrook ($3.5 million) have player options. With no draft picks in June, and if both opt in, Denver's payroll would hit $199.5 million with 13 players, about $3.5 million over the first apron. That would leave the taxpayer mid-level exception (about $5.7 million) as the team's primary spending tool.
If Murray and Gordon are too valuable to the team, along with Christian Braun at an economical $4.9 million, Michael Porter Jr. stands out as the most obvious player to shop in trade. Zeke Nnaji's $8.2 million salary next year isn't problematic, but the length of his contract may not appeal to others. Šarić and Westbrook can also be dealt on their expiring contracts, assuming they opt in.
The next step is running through Porter's scenarios, with his $38.3 million salary (plus $40.8 million the following year). Denver would lose size on the wing and shooting, but if the Nuggets flipped him for the right personnel, they could improve their depth significantly. With a player of Jokić's caliber, that may be enough.
This may be the most likely path for the franchise, but that assumes Jokić makes it clear he wants to stay and that Porter has a viable market. The team also needs to decide on long-term leadership in the front office and on the bench
Meanwhile, despite their flaws, Jokić and the Nuggets will try to muscle through the Western Conference playoffs.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X @EricPincus and Bluesky.
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