Predicting Every Major 2025 NBA Season Award Winner: MVP, Rookie of the Year and More
We did it! The end of the NBA's 2024-25 campaign is here. And that means the league's most prestigious individual awards are on the way.
In fact, those announcements are so close that FanDuel has taken odds for MVP, Rookie of the Year and the rest of the notable honors off the board.
But we still have you covered with predictions for all them, based of course on the season we just witnessed, but also the narratives we've heard, recent trends and both basic and advanced numbers.
Below, you'll find picks for who will win (as opposed to who should) for each of the major individual awards.
Rookie of the Year: Stephon Castle
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Points per game has long been a key indicator in the Rookie of the Year race. And since Jared McCain (who averaged 15.3 points) went down for the season prior to hitting 600 minutes, Stephon Castle is this class' leader at 14.6.
But reducing the case to a single column is an injustice to Castle. All season, but especially recently, Castle has been a screwdriver of a ball-handler, whose ability to get to the paint can pull entire defenses inward.
His defense hasn't leaped off the screen, but there are flashes of upside there, as well. His above-the-rim athleticism and 6'9" wingspan should eventually translate to positive impact on that end, once he learns some of the intricacies of NBA schemes.
And much of that is already coming together.
For the season, Castle is averaging 14.6 points, 4.0 assists and 0.9 steals, but those numbers are 17.8, 4.8 and 1.0 since the All-Star break.
Keep An Eye On: Zaccharie Risacher
This past summer's No. 1 pick, Zaccharie Risacher, started coming on a little late to seriously challenge Castle, but he's played well enough to warrant a mention.
Since he returned from an injury in mid-January, Risacher has averaged 14.4 points and 2.1 threes while shooting 41.3 percent from deep.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green
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Draymond Green's late surge for Defensive Player of the Year feels a little contrived, given his own public campaigning and not-so-subtle pushes during the Golden State Warriors' national broadcasts, but there's no question his case is real.
We'll start with what the numbers don't necessarily capture (at least not entirely). Draymond, who stands 6'6", can still defend opposing 7-footers. Not just survive. Really defend. His aggressiveness and physicality are often enough to frustrate opposing bigs, but what makes him truly unique is the ability to also cover guards and wings on the perimeter.
He's not the best in the league at defending any individual position, but he's good against all of them. And that versatility remains a critical component for Golden State's steady climb into the top 10 in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Statistically, Green is in the 98th percentile in defensive estimated plus-minus (EPM is one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in NBA front offices), is averaging 5.0 defensive rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks in under 30 minutes per game and is having a strong impact on the team's defensive rating.
Keep An Eye On: Dyson Daniels
Australian Dyson "The Great Barrier Thief" Daniels is the league's most dynamic perimeter defender, with an average of 3.0 steals, which is tied for the ninth-highest mark of all time (and is the highest since 1988-89).
His 98th percentile defensive EPM also helps his case, but the Atlanta Hawks ranking in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per 100 possessions may doom his chances.
Sixth Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard
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As is the case with Rookie of the Year, points per game has had perhaps an outsized influence on the Sixth Man of the Year award for decades.
And Payton Pritchard is actually behind five players who've started fewer than half their games and have 1,000-plus minutes in points per game.
But he also leads that group of six in assists per game (at 3.4), box plus/minus and effective field-goal percentage.
Pritchard has been one of the league's most dynamic three-point threats (he's averaging 3.2 triples and shooting 40.6 percent from deep), regardless of role. And he's doing it on a 60-plus-win team.
Keep An Eye On: Malik Beasley
Detroit Pistons sharpshooter Malik Beasley actually leads Pritchard in threes per game, three-point percentage and net rating swing (the difference in a team's net points per 100 possessions when a given player is on or off the floor).
Those indicators could make this race as close as any of the awards detailed here, but Boston's team strength will put Pritchard over the top.
Most Improved Player: Dyson Daniels
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Beyond the explosion in his steals average and steal rate, Daniels' per-100-possessions average for points has also skyrocketed from 12.8 to 19.7.
And after finishing last season with a 62nd percentile EPM, he's up to 85th in 2024-25.
Perhaps most importantly, after initially looking like a "throw-in" in the trade that sent Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans, Daniels has been a full-time starter for Atlanta, which has a better net rating when he's on the floor.
The Hawks haven't just trusted him to disrupt opposing perimeters and typically take on the most difficult defensive assignments. They've allowed him to grow as both a scorer and secondary playmaker alongside Trae Young.
Keep An Eye On: Cade Cunningham
Thanks to increases in points, assists and rebounds per game, All-Star guard Cade Cunningham spent much of this season as the betting favorite for this award.
And him winning would be just fine, but expect enough voters to follow the "top picks are supposed to get better, so why reward it?" line of thinking to push him from first place in the voting.
Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson
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Coach of the Year is always the hardest award to nail down. Every year, there are plenty of worthy candidates, and 2024-25 is no exception.
We'll settle on the Cleveland Cavaliers' Kenny Atkinson for a few reasons.
First, he absolutely smashed expectations, which is often important for COY winners. And it's not like there was a low bar for him to clear. Cleveland's preseason over-under was 48.5, and the Cavs have sailed past 60 wins.
He quickly (presumably before the season even started) figured out how to effectively stagger both the minutes and responsibilities of seemingly overlapping talents like Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland at the guard spots and Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen inside.
And the way he wove everything together on both ends of the floor helped Cleveland finish the season with the league's best offense and a top-10 defense.
Keep An Eye On: J.B. Bickerstaff, Mark Daigneault, Ime Udoka, Tyronn Lue, J.J. Redick and Chauncey Billups all went over their teams' preseason over-unders (in most cases, by a lot).
Clutch Player of the Year: Nikola Jokic
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Putting this prediction (and its explanation) here likely spoils the pick for MVP, but the outcome of that award has been pretty much locked up for weeks.
Even if most of the voters already have their minds made up on that one, once they really dive into Nikola Jokić's numbers (29.8 points, 12.8 rebounds and 10.2 assists, for starters) they're going to have a hard time turning in their ballots without his name on it somewhere.
And the most obvious place to write it down is for Clutch Player of the Year.
Jokić is fourth in the league in total points scored and second in assists handed out in the clutch (defined as the final five minutes of games within five points in either direction).
Per 75 possessions, he's putting up a whopping 35.6 points, 12.4 rebounds and 8.7 assists in those situations.
And the Denver Nuggets have a winning record in games that go to clutch time.
Keep An Eye On: Jalen Brunson
Jalen Brunson was the leader in this clubhouse for a big chunk of the season, but missing 15 games at the end of the season probably squashed some of his momentum.
Still, he's second in the league in total points scored in the clutch. And the New York Knicks are 17-9 in clutch games he plays in.
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
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At 32.7, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the league's leader in points per game. But that number on its own doesn't do justice to his exploits as a scorer.
Among seasons that qualified for the minutes leaderboard, SGA is in the middle of the fifth-best ever by points per 75 possessions (2018-19 James Harden, 2022-23 Embiid, 1986-87 Michael Jordan and 2022-23 Giannis Antetokounmpo).
And among that group of five, Embiid is the only who had a higher relative true shooting percentage than SGA's plus-6.1.
In other words, thanks to his ability to score from everywhere on the floor, draw fouls and get to the paint at will, Gilgeous-Alexander is having one of the best scoring campaigns we've ever seen.
And that isn't even the end of his MVP case.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a point differential around that of a 72-win team when SGA is on the floor. He leads the NBA in EPM (thanks to his significant advantage over Jokić in defensive EPM). And his team is on pace for the highest average point differential of all time.
Lest you think a couple of those points are more of a credit to the Thunder than they are to SGA, their net rating is 9.0 points better when he's on the floor. There's simply no way his team would be at the height it is without him. Not even close.
Keep An Eye On: Nikola Jokić
Between SGA and Jokić, there really isn't a wrong answer this year.
Jokić's net rating swing more than doubles Gilgeous-Alexander's. His own team plays at around a 64-win pace when he's on the floor. And beyond averaging a triple-double, he's on pace to be the first player in league history to finish in the top 10 in each of the following categories: points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and steals per game.
In fact, he's on track to finish in the top three in each of those categories.
This is, arguably, the best and most well-rounded statistical season in NBA history. He's not going to win MVP. And somehow, thanks to SGA's own brilliance, that's not some outrageous result.
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