Which of the NBA's Biggest Disappointments Are Most Screwed?
What's next for the most disappointing teams of the 2024-25 NBA regular season?
It's a question each of their fanbases and front offices have no choice other than to ask over and over until the 2025-26 campaign tips off. Not all of them are going to want the answer.
For certain teams, this year is a frustrating yet fleeting blip on the longer-term radar. For some, it signals a more combustible meld of uncertainty and tightrope-walking. And for others, it is telltale of the arduous (if not near-hopeless) arc to come.
These rankings will assess the lay of the big-picture land for the squads who have underachieved most relative to preseason expectations. Exact placement will take into account current roster construction, cap situations, asset collections and the ability to improve and retool not just ahead of 2025-26, but the next three to five years.
7. Orlando Magic
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Interpretations of the Orlando Magic's future will vary depending on whether you believe their two most important players, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, can entrench themselves as high-volume initiators who score with above-average efficiency.
Both have shown extended flashes of starrier peaks. Long-term sustainability is a question mark.
Skepticism seems higher for Paolo Banchero. He's often viewed as more of a ball-stopper with proclivities for less-desirable shots. His play since just after the trade deadline begs to differ, and we need to see him with better spacing before rendering profound verdicts. Banchero's teammates this season are in the 1st percentile of both three-point and overall spot-up efficiency and have never ranked higher than the 41st percentile for his career, according to BBall Index.
Regardless of your Banchero and Wagner thoughts, the Magic do not face much competition for the least of the screwed. They are decidedly un-screwed and only here because they meet the disappointment criteria. They control all of their own first-rounders moving forward, will get Denver's pick this year, have one of the league's most battle-tested defenses and plenty of tradable contracts and won't get "is a cost-cutting move en route?" expensive until 2026-27.
None of the NBA's other disappointments can say the same.
6. Philadephia 76ers
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There is a level of fluidity to the Philadelphia 76ers' situation. They have a young star under contract in Tyrese Maxey, two more tantalizing kiddos in Quentin Grimes and the injured rookie Jared McCain and future draft equity to feature in trades, and they might exit this year's draft with a top-six prospect.
Still, the sheer number of landmines standing in their way verges on suffocating.
Nothing matters if Joel Embiid and his left knee cannot hold up. The Sixers owe him more than $248 million over the next four years, and he's already toeing the line of near-immovable. The balance on Paul George's contract (three years, $162 million) isn't looking so hot, either.
Plus, while Grimes' breakout is cool to see, the cost of retaining him in restricted free agency has likely skyrocketed. Bankrolling his next deal along with Embiid, George and Maxey alone will carry Philly past the salary cap for years.
This says nothing of the draft-lottery stakes. The Sixers' first-rounder heads to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six, and they still owe a future pick to the Brooklyn Nets in 2027 or 2028.
As currently constructed, Philly has access to a higher pinnacle than pretty much any other team on this list. That affords some separation from the bottom of the barrel. But reaching that peak presupposes Embiid can string together more than a partial season's worth of good health and return to MVP form. That is a shaky proposition at best and an unattainable pipe dream at worst.
5. New Orleans Pelicans
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Prior to his current back injury, Zion Williamson was playing well enough to fire up the "Wow, imagine adding a marquee draft prospect next to him" optimism. And look, that slant absolutely matters.
The New Orleans Pelicans are all but certain to have one of the four best lottery spots and better than a coin toss' chance of landing a top-five pick in this year's draft. Adding that prospect to a healthy core of Zion, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, CJ McCollum and Yves Missi is beyond intriguing and opens up all sorts of options, nuclear or otherwise.
Of course, if there's anything we know about the Pelicans, it's that injuries will never be a prob—oh, wait, never mind.
This isn't just about Zion. Murphy has appeared in at least 65 games just once, and the timing of Murray's right Achilles injury puts most, if not all, of next season in jeopardy.
Many will take the current rosters in Phoenix or Dallas over this one. New Orleans' flexibility moving forward spares it from tumbling beneath them.
Nabbing top-four lottery odds this year matters, and the Pelicans have a few extra first-round picks in the clip as well as control over all their own. (The 2027 first they shipped to Atlanta for Murray is the least favorable between their own and Milwaukee's pick.) Even if they eventually need to start over, they have the latitude to effectively do so.
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4. Miami Heat
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Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and rookie center Kel'el Ware give the Miami Heat a solid baseline off which to work moving forward. But their draft-pick obligations demand chasing immediate highs, and they don't exactly have the assets or in-house upside to pull it off.
Miami will keep its first-rounder this year unless it survives the play-in tournament. If the Heat land in the lottery, they'll owe an unprotected 2026 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder and an unprotected 2028 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets.
Even if the Heat convey this year's first-rounder, it won't really give them much freedom to take a step back. They will owe a first-round pick to Charlotte in 2027 with top-two protection.
Point being: Miami doesn't have the freedom to rebuild, is light on tradeable firsts even after scooping up Golden State's for this year, and cannot carve out meaningful cap space until at least 2026. The Heat have limited capacity to shake things up, and the odds of dramatic internal improvement rest predominantly with Ware or Jaime Jaquez Jr. (to a lesser extent these days).
This is far from the league's worst situation, but it's not exactly an enviable position, either.
3. Sacramento Kings
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Organizational incompetence increases the Sacramento Kings' screwedness by a factor of infinity. They would not rank this high strictly based on their talent and their books.
Sacramento has no damning contracts on its cap sheet and picked up two additional real first-round picks by trading De'Aaron Fox. That 2027 San Antonio Spurs pick doesn't look so hot with Victor Wembanyama in the fold, but the 2031 Minnesota Timberwolves first is theoretical gold.
The first-rounder that the Kings owe to the Atlanta Hawks is inconvenient but not the end of the world. It has top-12 protection this year and top-10 protection next year. If it doesn't convey in 2025, Sacramento can ensure it stays put should the front office please.
Of course, the front office—including team governor Vivek Ranadivé—won't go that route. Sacramento's decision-makers continue to traffic in short-sighted decisions. Even compliments directed toward their return on Fox are loaded. The Kings did well "under the circumstances"—those circumstances being that they figured out a way to disenfranchise arguably their most important player.
"Did well" also ignores that, conceptually, they could have prioritized more first-round equity rather than Zach LaVine and the chance to create Chicago Bulls West. Now, they enter this summer with Domantas Sabonis potentially (and rightfully) wondering what the hell is going on, with a head-coaching vacancy, and with Vlade Divac once again having the ear of Ranadive.
What could possibly go wrong, except, well, everything?
2. Dallas Mavericks
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It would have been easier to slot the Dallas Mavericks (slightly) lower if Kyrie Irving hadn't suffered a torn ACL in his left knee. That injury not only compromises this season but also potentially next year, too.
Kyrie returning in a timely manner would improve Dallas' outlook, although it's debatable how much it would. He's at the age (33) where we must wonder whether he'll regain his All-NBA form or anything close to it. Even if he does, we must trust that him and an aging Anthony Davis will remain healthy moving forward. And if they do, we must then place trust in the front office that...traded Luka Dončić.
The Mavericks' depth gives them unique appeal at full strength. Especially on defense, where a 21-year-old Dereck Lively II can wreck worlds in tandem in AD (when healthy). The Mavs also have the matching salaries and just enough draft picks to enter glitzier trade discussions.
These silver linings are not glittery enough to offset their own draft-pick commitments, though.
Dallas has this year's first-round pick and next year's first. After that, it doesn't control its own first-rounder outright again until 2031. Its capacity to reset in the event that the current core doesn't pan out is nonexistent, and the margin for error gets slimmer still if team president Nico Harrison triples down this summer at the expense of additional draft equity.
1. Phoenix Suns
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Salute to the Phoenix Suns for their uncontested stranglehold on last—er, I mean, first—place. There is no reasonable argument for any other squad to be here.
The Suns do not have control over any of their own first-round picks until 2032. Since they're over the second apron this season, they won't be allowed to trade that 2032 first-rounder, either. Unless they shed $11-plus million in salary, they're projected to be over the second apron next year, too. If they finish next season there, that would automatically push their 2032 pick to the bottom of the first round.
Ryan Dunn, Collin Gillespie and Oso Ighodaro are their most promising young players. None of them profile as a building block. Bradley Beal's injury history, underwhelming play this season and no-trade clause have nuked his market value. Will head coach Mike Budenholzer even be back in 2025-26?
Counting on a Kevin Durant trade to reposition Phoenix's bigger picture is flimsy. He turns 37 in September, has one year left on his contract and just suffered an ankle injury that will sideline him for at least a week.
Moving the 28-year-old Devin Booker would do more to restock the Suns' cupboard. To what end, though? Unless they send him to the Houston Rockets, that cupboard still won't feature their own first-rounders, which arguably negates the point of dealing Booker at all.
The lack of outs in Phoenix is overwhelming, incomparable and damning.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Bluesky (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
Unless otherwise cited, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac. Draft-pick obligations via RealGM.
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