2025 NBA Playoffs: Panic Meter for Every Potential Play-In Tournament Team
Between the NBA's tankers (Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, Charlotte Hornets) and its championship contenders (Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics), there exists a battle for playoff seeding and either trying to reach the play-in seeds (Nos. 7-10 in both conferences) or avoid falling back into them.
This is primarily taking place in the mighty Western Conference, as 10 of the 15 teams are within three games of the 7-10 seeds.
With only about 10 games to go, which teams should be panicking about making the play-in tournament, which ones should be feeling good about their chances and which ones should set a new goal of landing a top spot in the 2025 NBA draft instead?
It's time to take a look at the panic meter for the 11 teams with the highest levels of variance to finish the 2024-25 season.
Draft Pick > Playoffs: Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs
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Sure, the Dallas Mavericks (tied with the No. 10 seed Phoenix Suns), Portland Trail Blazers (three games back) and San Antonio Spurs (also three) could reach the play-in tournament with a late-season push, but this shouldn't be the end goal anymore.
Stars like Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), De'Aaron Fox (Spurs) and Kyrie Irving (Mavs) have all been shut down with season-ending injuries, putting to rest any chance at a real playoff run.
The Blazers will inevitably want their young core to get some playoff experience, but it would mean sacrificing their 2025 lottery pick to the Chicago Bulls (top-14 protected). Would getting swept by the Thunder in the first round be worth giving up a chance at Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey or another potential star?
Dallas successfully tanked its way into the lottery two years ago, earning it the opportunity to pick up Dereck Lively II in the draft and recharge for a Finals run the following season.
These teams should feel no pressure to win, only to lose.
Low: Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers
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The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers both have a chance at the No. 4 seed in the West and home-court advantage in the first round.
In a packed conference, though, both are only three games or less from falling back into the play-in tournament as well.
The potential to slide should bother most teams, but these aren't your typical franchises.
LeBron James led the Lakers to the Western Conference Finals two years ago as a No. 7 seed. Stephen Curry and company trailed the Phoenix Suns by 11 games in the 2021-22 West standings yet ended up winning the NBA Finals.
For a pair of superstars with eight championships and 16 Finals appearances between them, James and Curry shouldn't be too worried about seeding.
These two franchises have been on the rise since the trade deadline, with Luka Dončić and Jimmy Butler both transforming the trajectory of this season and beyond.
The Lakers are 14-9 since the deadline and have risen as high as No. 2 in the West. Butler is 16-3 with a Golden State jersey on, resuscitating some life back into a core that many thought was gone.
Obviously, both teams would love to finish No. 4 in the West (or higher), but falling to the play-in tournament could still mean facing a young Houston Rockets team in the first round as the No. 7 seed, a scenario that won't faze James or Curry in the slightest.
Medium: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat
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The Memphis Grizzlies are in a similar situation to the Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers, yet they don't have players with the same postseason résumés to spark some confidence should they fall into the play-in tournament.
Memphis has made it past the first round just once in the Ja Morant/Jaren Jackson Jr. era (2021-22) and has lost some key role players since then (Dillon Brooks, Tyus Jones, De'Anthony Melton). There should be some fear about having to battle their way out of the play-in, especially if it comes as an eighth seed and a meeting with the powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder.
Expectations are tempered for the Los Angeles Clippers, as this is a good-but-not-great roster that doesn't really have a chance at a title run even if, by some miracle, Kawhi Leonard can stay healthy in the playoffs.
Few projected West postseason teams have as big of a home/away split as this old Clippers team (25-11 in L.A. vs. 15-20 on the road), so trying to reach the No. 4 seed is a big deal.
The Clippers don't have their own first-round pick in 2025 (swap rights owned by the Thunder) so there's plenty of motivation to finish as high as possible in the standings, placing some panic on the situation.
With most teams in the East already establishing themselves as a playoff team or a tanker, the Miami Heat are the one franchise in at least a little danger of falling out of the play-in tournament.
Now 1-9 in their last 10 games and just 5-17 overall since the trade deadline, this is a team in real jeopardy of missing the playoffs for the first time in six years. In doing so, Miami would keep its first-round pick in 2025, yet it would make its 2026 selection unprotected while being owed to (who else?) the Thunder.
High: Minnesota Timberwolves, Sacramento Kings
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For two franchises that have traded away All-Stars over the past six months while still trying to win, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings have a lot on the line this postseason.
The Wolves took a huge gamble by trading Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks after finishing as a No. 3 seed and reaching the Western Conference Finals.
Even if the trade was financially motivated, Minnesota looks like the loser of the deal thus far, with Towns being named an All-Star starter in the East while the Wolves are currently in the No. 8 seed.
This is a team still $16.6 million past the second apron line and will have to make some tough financial decisions regarding Julius Randle, the main return from the Towns deal.
Ending up in the play-in tournament and suffering a first-round loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder or whoever finishes at No. 2 would be a rough end to the season for a Minnesota team that needs to keep Anthony Edwards happy.
We thought the Kings had finally put a sustainable core and coaching staff together just two years ago, when Mike Brown led De'Aaron Fox and company back to the playoffs for the first time since 2005-06.
Not even 24 months later, and Doug Christie is overseeing the likes of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in some weird Chicago Bulls reboot that doesn't appear to have any sort of a plan in place.
The Kings are in real danger of missing out on the play-in tournament altogether and could lose their first-round pick (top-12 protected, owed to the Atlanta Hawks), making for a disaster of a 2024-25 season.
Extremely High: Phoenix Suns
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No team should be panicking more over the next few weeks than the Phoenix Suns.
It was an ugly trade deadline in the desert for a team that failed in its public pursuit of Jimmy Butler and then very publicly shopped Kevin Durant, whether he wanted them to or not.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported the 36-year-old will eventually be moved this summer "and he knows that," making for what we can only assume is an awkward locker room as the team still makes its postseason push.
Phoenix is just 10-12 overall since the trade deadline and has the hardest remaining schedule of any NBA team. There's a real chance even the banged-up Dallas Mavericks without Kyrie Irving could bump the Suns out of the play-in picture.
There's no fall-back plan in Phoenix. This is the most expensive roster in the NBA by far, one that's scheduled to pay $120 million more than the third-place, defending champion Boston Celtics.
There's no lottery pick to lean on, either. The Suns' 2025 selection is unprotected from the Durant trade and will either end up in the hands of the Houston Rockets or Brooklyn Nets.
A worst-case scenario has Phoenix missing the playoffs with no lottery pick; a best-case scenario means a first-round meeting with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In other words, there is no good ending coming for these pricey Suns. Now is the perfect time to panic.
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